I think a big reason people were expecting so much from the incoming freshmen is because we're still used to having to rely on freshmen when there's a big incoming class. We did not need much from the 2013 and 2014 classes right away because we returned so much experience. It hasn't been since the 2012 class (Woodbury, Gesell, Clemmons) that we have needed freshmen to start and be substantial contributors right away. We lost a lot of talent from last year's team, but now when we lack experienced depth Fran can lean on his starters more heavily because they're all very good Big 10 players.
I believe the class of freshmen we have now is just as good as the 2010, 2011, and 2012 classes, but we don't need them to be substantial contributors right away. If needed, I believe we could have Wagner produce at the same/similar level as Basabe as a freshmen and Fleming/Moss/Hutton could probably produce at the level of a Marble/McCabe/Oglesby as freshmen.
I'm sure we could still win close to half our games if we needed to rely on these freshmen (because they are talented), but we wouldn't be close to being a tournament team, just as the 2010/2011 team struggled with McCabe, Marble, and Basabe all playing significant minutes as freshmen.
The big thing I got wrong in my prediction was that I thought Hutton might play the most of any freshmen. As explained above, we don't need these freshmen to be anything more than role players this year, and I thought Hutton fit that mold the best of all the incoming freshmen because he was touted by his AAU coach as the best defensive high school player in the country (which may have been a stretch, but not that big of a stretch). Since I figured we'd rely on our returning players for the bulk of the scoring, I thought Hutton would provide the most needed asset from any of the freshmen - defense.