I have a naive weather question to ask about Irma

[soybean]

I'm home getting ready to watch the Hawks on TV today. I'm also keeping a eye on Irma as I have been for the past several days. What I'm wondering is why do all of these hurricane models expect Irma to make a turn north and run up the length of Florida - why won't she just ride along the edge of Cuba and then just keep moving WNW and wander out into the gulf and then threaten LA & TX?

 

[The Tradition]

I'm home getting ready to watch the Hawks on TV today. I'm also keeping a eye on Irma as I have been for the past several days. What I'm wondering is why do all of these hurricane models expect Irma to make a turn north and run up the length of Florida - why won't she just ride along the edge of Cuba and then just keep moving WNW and wander out into the gulf and then threaten LA & TX?

Approaching cold front.

 

[moral_victory]

Because HAARP it's pushing it to Florida.

 

[naturalmwa]

God already punished TX and LA.

 

[soybean]

Because HAARP it's pushing it to Florida.

I see.

 

[soybean]

God already punished TX and LA.

But have they learned their lesson?

 

[soybean]

Approaching cold front.

From where?

 

[Herkmeister]

Approaching cold front.

Thanks Trad. I wondered the same thing.

Please stay safe.

 

[The Tradition]

From where?

Iowa.

 

[soybean]

I'm not sure I'm convinced it gonna turn North as soon as they expect.

 

[moral_victory]

I see.

Grats

 

[birdforbogey]

I'm not sure I'm convinced it gonna turn North as soon as they expect.

So, you think this is a FAKE weather forecast?

 

[Scott559]

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/08/why-hurricanes-turn-north/

 

[soybean]

So, you think this is a FAKE weather forecast?

No, I think it might be a flawed one.

 

[goldmom]

But have they learned their lesson?

Yes. They decided that due to the need to tear up new construction and concrete covering the ground, all non-essential newcomers from the Midwest must leave ASAP and return to their blizzard prone cornfields or face capture and transport to the nearest soylent green processing center.

 

[ping72]

Because if it turns north it will take out more Trump properties. God hates Trump.

 

[Chewback]

But have they learned their lesson?

Maybe, maybe not. But maybe God is figuring to use Jose to pick off the stragglers in Houston.

 

[Gimmered]

Because Florida has more gheys than Louisiana.

 

[goldmom]

Because Florida has more gheys than Louisiana.

That just makes us WAY cooler.
Gay dudes are the most fun people like, ever.

 

[Chuck C]

God already punished TX and LA.

 

[Wendy79]

That just makes us WAY cooler.
Gay dudes are the most fun people like, ever.

For real.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

Maybe, maybe not. But maybe God is figuring to use Jose to pick off the stragglers in Houston.

Jose will turn north lots sooner than Irma.

 

[Chewback]

Jose will turn north lots sooner than Irma.

I don't want to sound critical but God can send Jose pretty much wherever he wants it. Just ask Lute.

 

[millah_22]

I don't want to sound critical but God can send Jose pretty much wherever he wants it. Just ask Lute.

Operation No way, Jose

 

[95Hawk]

Because bad things come from the south and try to overrun America.

Thus, we must build a wall that keeps out southern immigrants, hurricanes, Latino soccer announcers, and Shakira's hips.

Okay, okay...we can keep Shakira's hips.

 

[artradley]

So, you think this is a FAKE weather forecast?

No, I think it might be a flawed one.

What knowledge of these things do you have that would make you doubt the models? I seriously don't understand.

 

[The Tradition]

What knowledge of these things do you have that would make you doubt the models? I seriously don't understand.

All the models are way off the farther out in time they go. That's why the forecast said it would go up the east coast on Thursday.

 

[birdforbogey]

What knowledge of these things do you have that would make you doubt the models? I seriously don't understand.

https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/thre...e-now-a-thing-apparently.201327/#post-4601127

 

[bagdropper]

The "one forecasted path" you see generally speaking is a blend of roughly 15 or so forecasting models.

Some models may nail the path, some won't. Plus, as each "sample of weather data" is taken, a new forecast is issued, once again a blend of the multitude of models.

The data used to forecast is ever changing as the weather evolves, therefore if one piece of the puzzle isn't the same as what it was forecasted to be earlier, every model therefore may have an individual change, thereby changing the blended "single path" forecast.

Keep in mind, they ballparked this one pretty damn well. A week ago, the forecast was it's gonna come in somewhere in southern Florida...which it has. Yes, it's edged westward as we got closer, but closer generally lends to more accurate short term forecasts versus the long term forecasts of a week ago.

 

[srams21]

Iowa.

And those Gator fans laughed after the Outback Bowl when I told them we would get revenge.