I think these next four games will show us what our coach's ceiling is...

[CentralIAHawk]

I have been reading threads about 'slumping', and there has been a great deal of talk about our bench's lack of production the past few games. I think those things are related. And I think we have a coach who is going to figure that out and get us on the right track.

I don't think we all stop to realize how fluid the basketball season is. A team can win two or three games based on a specific offense, defense or even a hot player...but the opponents are constantly watching film and adjusting to those things. I haven't seen the statistics to support my theory, but maybe someone else has the ability to do the research. I think we have narrowed our offense too drastically and that is hurting everyone.

It looks to me like we are running quite a few sets now for Jared and Peter, rather than letting them get their points out of the flow of the offense. I am guessing our assist/basket ratio has gone down quite a bit from the early to mid-season. That might not actually show up in the statistics, as most of Peter's shots come off of passes, even in the sets. Most of Jared's now come off the dribble. Regardless, it seems like we are working awfully hard to get those two guys the ball and get them looks.

Obviously, that makes complete sense, as they are our two best scorers. However, when you get out of balance in an area like that, you can take a 55% shooter like Uthoff and reduce him to a 45% shooter pretty quickly, just because of the attention the defense gives. Also, we could get great games out of those two guys and score 60 points between them, and still lose 75-80 if we don't have the other guys contributing like they did earlier in the season.

If I was playing the Hawks right now, I would run a triangle and two when they are both in the game, and a box and one or chaser when one of them is on the bench. I would just flat out make the other guys score. Mike is hardly being guarded right now. If I was Fran, I would tell him I want to see him shoot 10 3-balls the next game. He needs to make those guys get up and guard him. If he hits 3 out of 10, that will do the trick...and I believe he would hit more than that.

Same for Ellingson and Baer. I would tell them I want them to get back to the quick trigger they had earlier in the season. I want the defense to be worried about every pass those two guys receive. I would really work the pick and roll with Clemmons and Woody. Both of those guys look to be at least 60% finishers at the rim. I would keep Uhl aggressive.

It seems to me like there is a lot more standing around, setting screens for Pete and running clear outs for Jared. I would get back to moving people and moving the ball. That is when our offense has looked the best. And that is also when Pete and Jared are shooting open shots, rather than working their butts off to shoot a difficult left-hand finger roll. That seems to be Jared's go-to shot right now...and I believe that is because the scouting reports say that's what he should be given...better than an open 3-ball or a dunk at the rim.

Anyway, it is going to be fun to see Fran sort this all out. I believe these last four games (after PSU) are all winnable...and they are also all losable. We need our best effort against each team, and that includes our best coaching effort.

Go Hawks!

 

[whatsup13579er]

I think a week off between the PSU game and Wisky game will help out this squad a lot. Get some rest, mentally and physically, then get ramped up for the home stretch and tourney time.

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

Personally I think it all comes down to defensive rebounding, limiting 2nd shots. Iowa gets back to doing that, the defense looks better and Iowa is getting out in transition. REBOUND

 

[bravehawks1]

I have been reading threads about 'slumping', and there has been a great deal of talk about our bench's lack of production the past few games. I think those things are related. And I think we have a coach who is going to figure that out and get us on the right track.

I don't think we all stop to realize how fluid the basketball season is. A team can win two or three games based on a specific offense, defense or even a hot player...but the opponents are constantly watching film and adjusting to those things. I haven't seen the statistics to support my theory, but maybe someone else has the ability to do the research. I think we have narrowed our offense too drastically and that is hurting everyone.

It looks to me like we are running quite a few sets now for Jared and Peter, rather than letting them get their points out of the flow of the offense. I am guessing our assist/basket ratio has gone down quite a bit from the early to mid-season. That might not actually show up in the statistics, as most of Peter's shots come off of passes, even in the sets. Most of Jared's now come off the dribble. Regardless, it seems like we are working awfully hard to get those two guys the ball and get them looks.

Obviously, that makes complete sense, as they are our two best scorers. However, when you get out of balance in an area like that, you can take a 55% shooter like Uthoff and reduce him to a 45% shooter pretty quickly, just because of the attention the defense gives. Also, we could get great games out of those two guys and score 60 points between them, and still lose 75-80 if we don't have the other guys contributing like they did earlier in the season.

If I was playing the Hawks right now, I would run a triangle and two when they are both in the game, and a box and one or chaser when one of them is on the bench. I would just flat out make the other guys score. Mike is hardly being guarded right now. If I was Fran, I would tell him I want to see him shoot 10 3-balls the next game. He needs to make those guys get up and guard him. If he hits 3 out of 10, that will do the trick...and I believe he would hit more than that.

Same for Ellingson and Baer. I would tell them I want them to get back to the quick trigger they had earlier in the season. I want the defense to be worried about every pass those two guys receive. I would really work the pick and roll with Clemmons and Woody. Both of those guys look to be at least 60% finishers at the rim. I would keep Uhl aggressive.

It seems to me like there is a lot more standing around, setting screens for Pete and running clear outs for Jared. I would get back to moving people and moving the ball. That is when our offense has looked the best. And that is also when Pete and Jared are shooting open shots, rather than working their butts off to shoot a difficult left-hand finger roll. That seems to be Jared's go-to shot right now...and I believe that is because the scouting reports say that's what he should be given...better than an open 3-ball or a dunk at the rim.

Anyway, it is going to be fun to see Fran sort this all out. I believe these last four games (after PSU) are all winnable...and they are also all losable. We need our best effort against each team, and that includes our best coaching effort.

Go Hawks!

Watching all the games and being at CHA, I think this is a very good assessment. It is great to have two guys that we can set plays for, but it is really alienating the other players from the flow. Then when one or both of them is out of the game, the offense gets really stale and loses the good movement that was present early in the year. I agree, I hope Fran is working on making adjustments for this too. It could start by making more post passes which force the defense to collapse or turn to find the ball and generally frees up the shooter for open shot or to make cuts to the basket. Woody is a good passer so this would make the team hard to guard

 

[kzoohawk80]

Coaches ceilings get defined in the NCAA tournament. Fran will be judged there. Win the regular season Big Ten title and lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament and very few will remember your big ten title. I can remember a whole lot about the NCAA tournament game where Iowa lost to Northwestern State as a 2 seed but not remember how they got that 2 seed.

Remember that run UCONN went on to win it all with Napier and Boatright? They where a 7 seed. Do people remember there regular season?

 

[DanL53]

If I'm preparing to play the Hawkeyes I'm going to show my guys films from last year's Hawkeyes getting beat.

And I'm going to sell my #six to #ten bench guys, if I have that many, on just how important it is to grab, hold, shove Peter Jok, and push Woody out of the way to get rebounds. And while we're at it I'm going to show film of Jack Layman guarding Uthoff. I'm gonna convince my guys that they don't have to kiss him, but the have to grab him, spin him around, dip him and basically give him the roughest salsa dance he's ever had!

I want my starters to push the envelope until one foul in the first half. And I'll switch defensive assignments as we only have to worry about Jarrod and Peter. Woody may just push back and get himself taken out.

And if all this works I'm going to beat these Hawkeyes because they never will get the chance to play basketball.

Of course, in a couple years with guys like Hutton, Williams at point, Wagner, Cook, Kriener, Pemsl and more...getting tough won't be an option against these guys.

 

[DanL53]

Coaches ceilings get defined in the NCAA tournament. Fran will be judged there. Win the regular season Big Ten title and lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament and very few will remember your big ten title. I can remember a whole lot about the NCAA tournament game where Iowa lost to Northwestern State as a 2 seed but not remember how they got that 2 seed.

Remember that run UCONN went on to win it all with Napier and Boatright? They where a 7 seed. Do people remember there regular season?

Depends on how one choses to judge. In my case it has always been about the Big Ten and the results within. Time was even a fifth place Big Ten team couldn't make the NCAA's. And that was when they took 48 teams! Before then it was even tougher.

Now we've got six, seven, maybe eight teams making the NCAA's where a game can be decided by hot shooting. It's a game or two verses an 18 game schedule. I remember the 18 game schedule.

And this year, if we manage to win the Big Ten? We'll have done better than not nine teams, but thirteen! It's getting tougher. And no round robin so even that parity has been taken away.

The "ceiling" that I hope for is to compete for Big Ten Championships, regular season. We have, I'm convinced that Ceiling is no longer a place for our program, just a concept for other teams less worthy to get past.

 

[hawklandish]

It is all about making adjustments. With the Hawks early success, opposing teams have made some adjustments. They are attacking the basket off of our press more often. They are using more dribble drive penetration to generate offense, and they are hitting the boards very hard, especially on the offensive end when the Hawks are playing zone. They have adjusted defenses to focus on Jared.

Now, it is time for Fran and the Hawks to respond, and make the adjustments they need to counter this. How well Fran does this will tell us how good he is.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

Good thread with solid analysis. I don't know that I agree with the title of the thread, but Fran does need to figure out how to get the ball moving on offense, how to keep the opponent off the offensive boards, and how to get the bench back to playing with confidence and energy. I suspect that PSU is going to use a strategy not too different from what Dan suggested, so let's hope that the Hawks get a few calls and can play with some flow tonight.

 

[Ronman]

I don't know how anyone can make the claim that winning the Big Ten title could be in any way forgettable.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

No. Fran's ceiling will not be determined in 2016, unless he wins a NC. I am not prepared to say what this guy can't do since he brought an entire BB program back from the dead.

 

[mazda1]

Uhl getting his head back in the game is probably what we really need to see. He gives us the match up problems that keep other teams honest and we need his help on the boards. The third option is critical.

I hate to say it but we are in danger of becoming Iowa State like in our depth, but we don't have a Burton. We need a rest and we need to refocus.

 

[kzoohawk80]

Uhl getting his head back in the game is probably what we really need to see. He gives us the match up problems that keep other teams honest and we need his help on the boards. The third option is critical.

I hate to say it but we are in danger of becoming Iowa State like in our depth, but we don't have a Burton. We need a rest and we need to refocus.

Been looking at some stats today and Uhl still leads the Big Ten in 3 point shooting % in league games at 53.8%. Pretty crazy as bad as he's been of late. The offense will come back around. Worried about his defense. The effort really hasn't been there defensively. I also think him not playing with Jok and Uthoff is hurting him off the bench. PG, Baer, Jok, Uthoff and Uhl is a lineup that has been really hard for teams to defend this year. We haven't seen it because Fran has been playing Wagner with Uhl and I don't think it's been working. I think part of the bench struggles has been with Fran trying to get Wagner more minutes. Not knocking Wagner but if you want scoring off the bench you can't be playing the 2 pg's with Wagner, Uhl and Baer. That's why I think the scoring has been off from the bench but the flip side is that the defense has been better off the bench with Wagner playing the 5.

 

[crHawkeye92]

Uhl getting his head back in the game is probably what we really need to see. He gives us the match up problems that keep other teams honest and we need his help on the boards. The third option is critical.

I hate to say it but we are in danger of becoming Iowa State like in our depth, but we don't have a Burton. We need a rest and we need to refocus.

Yeah, Uhl really needs to get going. I don't know what it is but when he's out on the court, he gives off this attitude like he doesn't really care. Doesn't seem like he's giving a lot of effort. I'm probably judging him too harshly though. That could just be his personality.

 

[mazda1]

Dom did show some positives in the last
half of his minutes. Baer also helped. There was a jump in intensity late in the game from the Hawks, but the game was already lost without help from Penn State. Playing on front of 23 fans doesn't do much to give you energy either.

I wrote in the 11-2 no worries thread that we could win only 1 more league game the way we are playing and I stand by that. Teams are starting to mug us and we don't respond well to that. IMO we are mentally tired and are not playing aggressive or loose.

Hopefully we get some rest this week and come out on fire.

 

[SotaHawk87]

If his ceiling is getting a team to be ranked in the top 5 that 99% of Americans thought would be a bubble team, sign me up! I know it's an unfinished product but the media coverage has been unreal this year for Iowa Hoops! Now he needs to capitalize on recruiting

 

[icwesthawk]

Don't think the offense is our main problem. We cannot give up 80 pts to Penn State. Our defense has been shredded lately. Anyone with a center who can walk, dribble or shoot is making Woody look pretty weak one on one. All that being said I don't think it's as dark as it looks right now. A week off should do this team a lot of good, let's hope so.

 

[amahawk]

I think recruiting is part of the issue, The Hawkeyes have had a streak of great play out of a walk-on, a couple of projects and some role players.
That streak seems to have ended. Pardon the poor english, but Fran needs more better players.

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

I would like to have Williams in the game and even a few games earlier more to spell MG and Sapp . More for this year and less about next year, though that would likely been a benefit too. He has length and athletic ability that could and IMO should be taken advantage of on the defensive side especially as well as his ability to slash and create. Now I know he hasn't demonstrated much yet but I think he can and the biggest benefit is to keep both MG and Sapp fresher

 

[hawkland14]

Coaches ceilings get defined in the NCAA tournament. Fran will be judged there. Win the regular season Big Ten title and lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament and very few will remember your big ten title. I can remember a whole lot about the NCAA tournament game where Iowa lost to Northwestern State as a 2 seed but not remember how they got that 2 seed.

Remember that run UCONN went on to win it all with Napier and Boatright? They where a 7 seed. Do people remember there regular season?

So much wrong with this post. For one, Iowa was a 3 seed when they lost to NW State and I still have great memories of finishing 2nd in the Big Ten and winning the BT Tournament that year with a bunch of Iowa kids.

Second of all, if Iowa wins the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since 1979 and loses first round, you seriously don't think people will remember that?

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

So much wrong with this post. For one, Iowa was a 3 seed when they lost to NW State and I still have great memories of finishing 2nd in the Big Ten and winning the BT Tournament that year with a bunch of Iowa kids.

Second of all, if Iowa wins the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since 1979 and loses first round, you seriously don't think people will remember that?

I get what you're saying, but that team is remembered for NW State and being bounced. Conference titles are great, but not just Iowa, everyone is judged by how they play in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

Good thread. Unfortunately we are very prone to quick guards penetrating and breaking us down. This is why I don't think the team can win more than 2 games in the tournament. Spread us out, attack our guards, draw help defenders and kick for easy baskets. The loss is what it is, but I am extremely disappointed in Gesell, Clemmons, and Woodbury. Talking about leadership and toughness vs. actually applying it is getting old. Not the night for all 3 of these guys to disappear.

 

[IllQChawk]

Good thread. Unfortunately we are very prone to quick2 it is, but I am extremely disappointed in Gesell, Clemmons, and Woodbury. Talking about leadership and toughness vs. actually applying it is getting old. Not the night for all 3 of these guys to disappear.

I love coach Fran as much as anyone, but 2 years ago Iowa was in the same position that it is in now and crapped on itself.....Fran and his staff couldn't stem the tide then and I have my doubts that he and his assistances can do anything to change the coarse of history now. We shall see, 2 years ago Iowa was a recipient of an unwanted break when a ceiling beam fell to the seats at Indiana, postponing that game. The extra time off between games that year didn't help the players one bit then and we shall see if the week off before the next game against Wisconsin will change things this year....not holding my breath...