Had forgotten that Tom Allen went to be Penn State's DC after he was fired at Indiana. Not sure how well that is gonna work out.
Local ESPN radio was previewing Indiana this morning.
Local ESPN radio was previewing Indiana this morning.
"If this team's got a pulse on offense, they have every right to compete for a College Football Playoff spot."
- Thread starter Franisdaman
- Start date
Big Ten Dark Horse: Iowa (+4000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
I don’t believe that Iowa is at the same level as the top of the new-look Big Ten, but there is a path for this team to be in the Big Ten title conversation come late November based around its schedule.While I won’t call for an outright B1G title bet, the over win total of 7.5 is very enticing at -150 (60% implied probability).
Before I break down the state of the Hawkeyes, let’s start with this simple fact.
Heading into the season, Iowa is set to be favored in all but one game this season, at Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes have been a Big Ten title game fixture over the last several seasons behind its elite defense, and not much will change this season. Despite losing Cooper DeJean to the pros, the team still ranks inside the top 10 in returning production after ranking second in yards per play allowed and fifth in EPA/Play.
What has held the team back is its piss poor offense. It reached a boiling point last season as the team fired longtime offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz after the team ranked 131st in yards per play and EPA/Play.
New OC Tim Lester will hopefully push the team out of the basement of the nation and, considering its nearly impossible to be worse, I’m banking on some mild improvement.
If Iowa can be even below average on offense, the defense will be stout enough to lead to plenty of wins on the record.
Given the easy schedule, with its most difficult non-Ohio State games coming at home against Iowa State (non-conference), Wisconsin and Nebraska, the Hawkeyes are set up for a big season.
Big Ten College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season
The Big Ten enters a new era with the entrance of four former PAC-12 teams in Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA, marking a new era for the storied conference.
interesting this writer thinks isu, wi, and ne are tougher outs than washington and ucla.Big Ten Dark Horse: Iowa (+4000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
I don’t believe that Iowa is at the same level as the top of the new-look Big Ten, but there is a path for this team to be in the Big Ten title conversation come late November based around its schedule.
While I won’t call for an outright B1G title bet, the over win total of 7.5 is very enticing at -150 (60% implied probability).
Before I break down the state of the Hawkeyes, let’s start with this simple fact.
Heading into the season, Iowa is set to be favored in all but one game this season, at Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes have been a Big Ten title game fixture over the last several seasons behind its elite defense, and not much will change this season. Despite losing Cooper DeJean to the pros, the team still ranks inside the top 10 in returning production after ranking second in yards per play allowed and fifth in EPA/Play.
What has held the team back is its piss poor offense. It reached a boiling point last season as the team fired longtime offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz after the team ranked 131st in yards per play and EPA/Play.
New OC Tim Lester will hopefully push the team out of the basement of the nation and, considering its nearly impossible to be worse, I’m banking on some mild improvement.
If Iowa can be even below average on offense, the defense will be stout enough to lead to plenty of wins on the record.
Given the easy schedule, with its most difficult non-Ohio State games coming at home against Iowa State (non-conference), Wisconsin and Nebraska, the Hawkeyes are set up for a big season.
Big Ten College Football Preview: Odds, Prediction to Win and Best Win Total Bets for 2024 Season
The Big Ten enters a new era with the entrance of four former PAC-12 teams in Oregon, USC, Washington and UCLA, marking a new era for the storied conference.www.si.com
not sure how much Washington has coming back & I think there's a reason Chip Kelly bolted UCLA
Why?
The addition of the PAC-12 teams has been completely overrated, competition-wise. Those teams are going to struggle
i think you are right but the common refrain over the years has been that iowa has benefited from a big west division schedule. this flies a little bit in the face of that.
There were plenty of one loss teams in the 4 team playoff. There will be some 2 loss teams on the 12 team race. My biggest concern would be if Iowa loses 2 games and then has to play OSU again in a conference title game. This would of course mean that M and everyone else had at least 2 losses and tie breakers etc...The point being, I'd say we have a better shot going forward then when it was 4 teams every year.
Gotcha.
Sounds like we agree that it's nice to hear people capable of thinking for themselves rather than hopping onto the trendy narrative.
I also think the claims that Iowa's schedules have been weak since having been a member of the West have been overstated. Having 4 rivalry games on the schedule every season is NEVER easy. And other than OSU, Iowa has held its own vs the top teams in the East in the KF era
Think about it this way...if you were in the East last year you would have played PSU, Umich and tOSU....you likely don't get to ten wins...the two teams you played you didn't score a point against...
Then the rest of your schedule becomes interesting...maybe you hit Maryland when they were hot...maybe you hit RU early (who didn't suck but got beet up by running through Michigan, PSU and tOSU in a short period)....and then maybe you get lucky by only having to play say Purdue and Whisky on the other side...not great teams but they have shown they can beet you...
Good thing ISU was your OOC game because if you were in the East that would make 8-4 possible
MAYBE Michigan doesn't win a title last year if Harbaugh wasn't a cheater. It MAY BE a fun game to play.
Iowa absolutely dominated Rutgers. MAYBE Iowa's best game of the season. They don't match up well against Iowa at all.
Or MAYBE their best game of the year was vs Purdue.
Or MAYBE the road win at Wisconsin was Iowa's best game of the year.
Or MAYBE it was the road win at ISU.
Hell, there were a couple other road wins you could MAYBE choose too.
I believe the last time Iowa played Maryland was about a 50 point road win.
Would Iowa's record over 10 seasons have been as good having played in the East? MAYBE not. In fact, probably not quite as good. But it hasn't made near the difference people have claimed. Again, in KF's tenure, Iowa has held its own against Michigan, MSU, and PSU. The record books don't lie. They have struggled against OSU. But I just don't see Indiana, Maryland, or Rutgers having given Iowa the troubles that NW and Purdue occasionally have. And Iowa MAYBE, in fact, probably doesn't retain all 4 rivalry games if in the East. No team wants 4 rivalry games on their schedule every season.
Also worth mentioning is the fact that Iowa has held its own in bowl games in KF's tenure, including vs the mighty SEC. It's silly to minimize the success of a program that has been winning for near the entirety of 24 years
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Will we be favored in 11 of our 12 games? Would 11-1 get us in the B1G Championship game and/or the CFP?
Iowa's 2024 schedule:
- vs. Illinois State, August 31, 2024
- vs. Iowa State, September 7, 2024
- vs. Troy, September 14, 2024
- at Minnesota, September 21, 2024
- at Ohio State, October 5, 2024
- vs. Washington, October 12, 2024
- at Michigan State, October 19, 2024
- vs. Northwestern, October 26, 2024
- vs. Wisconsin, November 2, 2024
- at UCLA, November 8, 2024
- at Maryland, November 23, 2024
- vs. Nebraska, November 29, 2024
So what will happen if Iowa loses to Ohio State and again in the B1G championship and finishes
11 - 2 and one or two other team goes 11-1 and doesn’t have to play in the B1G Championship?
Who goes?
11 - 2 and one or two other team goes 11-1 and doesn’t have to play in the B1G Championship?
Who goes?
guessing 11-1 and advancing to the B1G Championship gets us in the 12 team CPF (unless we get completely blown out in the title game)
This is not hard to figure out...you lost to Michigan and PSU last year and couldn't move the ball at all. That puts you at 2 losses if Michigan was regular season. Sorry you wouldn't have beaten tOSU...you got to score a30 to do that...well at least 25.
That puts your ceiling at 9-3. I clearly said you could have been 8-4 which means you drop one more random game (which you did in real life)...what I said is beyond rational...it's as sensible as one can get
And fwiw...I said last year...your mention of the last 24 years does not apply
Ellobo- who gives a shit about your opinion on what Iowa's record would have been if they had a different schedule than they actually had?
Anybody can cherry pick a season and make comments about it. Things would have looked a lot different in 2016, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2003, and 2002 if Michigan would have scored more points than Iowa when they played.
You aren't even cherry picking. You're making up scenarios out of thin air. Who the hell cares?
Again, if you want to play that game, then I'm going to take the stance that Michigan would not have won a title last season had they not built their program in part off the benefit of cheating.
Fun game, isn't it? Get lost
Anybody can cherry pick a season and make comments about it. Things would have looked a lot different in 2016, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2003, and 2002 if Michigan would have scored more points than Iowa when they played.
You aren't even cherry picking. You're making up scenarios out of thin air. Who the hell cares?
Again, if you want to play that game, then I'm going to take the stance that Michigan would not have won a title last season had they not built their program in part off the benefit of cheating.
Fun game, isn't it? Get lost
I was talking about last season and gave a cogent argument ...you seem a little triggered...you ok man?
No, you weren't talking about last season. Iowa went 10-4 last season, and didn't play whatever schedule it was you are talking about.
Nobody cares about your make-believe smerf-land. You slow man?
Your new coach is wildly immature and is going to fall on his ass. Guess that's more respectable than a cheater, though. I'll give you that
To quote myself:
"If you were playing in the East last year"
That was what you responded to. How does that not mean last season?
You can throw out insults all you want but the evidence is not on your side brother. What I said is documented above and you responded in a completely immature manner.
You said, "IF (Iowa) were playing in the East last year." In that way, you were not actually talking about last year. Again, what really happened last year was Iowa going 10-4 against a different schedule than the one you are talking about.
To not run the risk of insulting you, I will say that in this thread, and in my opinion, you have been incredibly dense.
Your mentioning of last year was an example you gave in response to a conversation about a narrative that goes back several years. Specifically, you responded to Desihawk's post, which contains the language, "common refrain over the years."
You are the only one who has tried to make this conversation strictly about last year.
I added some completely sound reasoning to the conversation, in which you rejected in its entirety, on the basis of not pertaining to your specific example of last year. It's all documented above.
In the end, none of this matters because it's all completely hypothetical. All that matters are the schedules Iowa has played, and the wins and losses that have been recorded.
In terms of the hypothetical, you provided last season as a fine example to support your premise. Then you weakened the example by adding a bunch of laughable "maybes". To paraphrase myself, "nobody gives a shit about your fantasy-land schedule and results."
I'm not sure what I've said that has insulted you. You have insisted on making this conversation about an imaginary schedule that Iowa did not play last year. That's why I referred to your overall contribution to the conversation as make-believe. Again, we're arguing about something that doesn't even exist. It truly does not matter. The schedules Iowa has played, and the wins and losses that have been recorded are cemented in the books.
The only data in the record books that could be in jeopardy are Michigan's recent wins, if they end up having them stripped. I wouldn't think calling Harbaugh a cheater is something you would interpret as an insult, because it has been proven. The big ten concluded as much and gave him his punishment.
I wouldn't think calling your new coach "wildly immature" is something you would interpret as an insult. That is my opinion. Within five seconds of his first time in the national limelight, he praised the Lord, and then followed that up with an f-bomb. I'm quite certain his immaturity is going to surface as some struggles. Michigan will still be good, as they will buy the best players. But greatness is not in their immediate future. I can tell you I will be betting on OSU-16.5 at home and OSU-6.5 on the road, on the alternate lines, in the Mich/OSU series as long as the two present coaches are in place.
I guess I did tell you to get lost, which was uncalled for, if that is how you've felt insulted. I apologize for that. At the same time, that's probably what I would tell you if you were imposing the same crap on my physical turf in Iowa. Quite simply, what you are attempting to impose is not welcome here. Something tells me you have enough sense to keep certain things to yourself when entering certain parts of Detroit.
If you were insulted by me asking if you were slow, then you probably shouldn't have asked me if I was OK. That was just tit for tat, and you have to expect some level of push-back when you come to another school's board and try to minimize their level of success.
It's really quite peculiar that coming off of a gnat, you feel the need to come on here and minimize Iowa's success. I can't say that I understand that, to be honest with you. Maybe you have a conscience, and just weren't able to be completely fulfilled by the gnat, knowing what happened along the way to get there. That's understandable, I suppose. I can see how that really sucks for you, especially having had to deal with the wins of the fab five being vacated.
To summarize, a conversation was being had about a narrative that goes back several years. You contributed to the conversation by giving the example of applying a hypothetical schedule to last year's Iowa team. I responded with examples that used data across several seasons. It's all pretty easy to follow and I hope this has helped clear things up for you. If not, and you again respond from a dense blind spot, that's fine. Nothing harmed here. But I would sincerely urge you to stay out of certain areas of Detroit
I don't think this thread has a pulse. Put a fork in it, it's done!
Greg knows his stuff. Smart man.
Can't wait for this season. Love seeing Nestor and Stephens listed as starters.
Run. The. Ball.
I stopped at your first line...
WOW!
You see a team of mental health professionals don't you? If not, you should.
Anyone want to give me the cliff notes on whatever nonsense he said after that?
The rest of it was the lyrics to Darude Sandstorm.
You were the one who asked, "how (your example) did not mean last season?" It seemed pretty self-explanatory from the reasoning I'd already given. But since you were too dense to follow, I answered your question.
Here are the cliff notes: you should read the rest of it, as it will clarify for you a conversation in this thread that was very easy to follow in the first place.
You must not care that much about insults if you are questioning the mental health of others
Kirk is going out like Clint in Unforgiven.
Non CFP bowls become like preseason-ish type games.
Not making the 12 team CFP will be like not making the Sweet 16 in men's basketball.
No Oregon, Penn State or Michigan on the schedule.
Our toughest 3 games might be Wisconsin, Nebraska & Iowa State, all of which are at home.
When looking at the 2024 schedule,
10-2:....at minimum?
11-1:.......realistic?
Our toughest 3 games might be Wisconsin, Nebraska & Iowa State, all of which are at home.
When looking at the 2024 schedule,
10-2:....at minimum?
11-1:.......realistic?
Iowa's 2024 schedule:
- vs. Illinois State, August 31, 2024
- vs. Iowa State, September 7, 2024
- vs. Troy, September 14, 2024
- at Minnesota, September 21, 2024
- at Ohio State, October 5, 2024
- vs. Washington, October 12, 2024
- at Michigan State, October 19, 2024
- vs. Northwestern, October 26, 2024
- vs. Wisconsin, November 2, 2024
- at UCLA, November 8, 2024
- at Maryland, November 23, 2024
- vs. Nebraska, November 29, 2024
Not sure how you don't have OSU as the toughest game.
11-1 is realistic, as in, certainly possible.
At the same time, 10-2, "at minimum", is completely unrealistic. Vegas opened Iowa at 7.5 and most books have moved up to 8. If anyone is the expert, it's Vegas. At the same time, I find 7.5 a bit low and have my bet on over 7.5
7.5 is Vegas's annual default for Iowa's win total o/u.
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