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Really excellent piece in The Bulwark today (the Bulwark, btw, was started by actual conservative Republicans who can't stomach Trump, so it tends to be less "rah-rah, GO DEMS!" than most left-leaning outlets)
Anyway, they basically lay out the two different strategies the GOP and the Democrats have, based on math. And how each side is trying a different gambit to win.
Good read:
Donald Trump’s ceiling is somewhere in the neighborhood of 46.5 percent of the national vote. His only path to victory is a narrow band in which he’s able to turn out just enough of his low-propensity voters in three to five states to draw a slim Electoral College victory.
The Harris campaign served notice last night that it is not interested in fighting trench warfare in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This campaign is comfortable enough with its base that it sees the opportunity to take from Trump and blow the map wide open. This is a ticket that wants to compete in North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and maybe even Texas.
The contrast with the Republican convention is kind of shocking when you think about it.
In Milwaukee the Republicans trotted out Hulk Hogan and Dana White, Kid Rock and JD Vance. There was no play for the center: The entire theory of the campaign put forward by that convention was that Trump will win by cranking up the animating spirits of the online right. By energizing the people who voted for him in 2016 and 2020. By giving his voters more people who looked, and sounded, and thought like them. By portraying Democratic voters as a bunch of terrorists hellbent on destroying the country.
These are two very different theories of the election. Trump is running to get to 47 percent. Harris is running to get to 52 percent.
But there’s something deeper going on here.
The reason Trump is aiming for 47 percent is because the Electoral College makes minority rule possible for the rural party. Which incentivizes the rural party to be insular and to focus on energizing—not expanding—its coalition.
By disadvantaging the urban party, the Electoral College incentivizes it to broaden its coalition. Which means that the Democratic party of this moment must be constantly seeking to expand its reach and bring in new constituencies if it is to have a chance at holding executive power.
In other words: The Electoral College distorts the character of our parties, nudging one of them to be a majority-seeking organism and the other to be a base-pleasing organism. The character of our two parties today flows from the system architecture used to allocate power.
This is a high, abstract concept. But it explains—perfectly—what we have seen at the two conventions.
Here is the full Bulward article - highly recommend you give them a follow if you like astute political reporting: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/democr...&isFreemail=false&r=12sbjk&triedRedirect=true
Anyway, they basically lay out the two different strategies the GOP and the Democrats have, based on math. And how each side is trying a different gambit to win.
Good read:
Donald Trump’s ceiling is somewhere in the neighborhood of 46.5 percent of the national vote. His only path to victory is a narrow band in which he’s able to turn out just enough of his low-propensity voters in three to five states to draw a slim Electoral College victory.
The Harris campaign served notice last night that it is not interested in fighting trench warfare in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This campaign is comfortable enough with its base that it sees the opportunity to take from Trump and blow the map wide open. This is a ticket that wants to compete in North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia, and maybe even Texas.
The contrast with the Republican convention is kind of shocking when you think about it.
In Milwaukee the Republicans trotted out Hulk Hogan and Dana White, Kid Rock and JD Vance. There was no play for the center: The entire theory of the campaign put forward by that convention was that Trump will win by cranking up the animating spirits of the online right. By energizing the people who voted for him in 2016 and 2020. By giving his voters more people who looked, and sounded, and thought like them. By portraying Democratic voters as a bunch of terrorists hellbent on destroying the country.
These are two very different theories of the election. Trump is running to get to 47 percent. Harris is running to get to 52 percent.
But there’s something deeper going on here.
The reason Trump is aiming for 47 percent is because the Electoral College makes minority rule possible for the rural party. Which incentivizes the rural party to be insular and to focus on energizing—not expanding—its coalition.
By disadvantaging the urban party, the Electoral College incentivizes it to broaden its coalition. Which means that the Democratic party of this moment must be constantly seeking to expand its reach and bring in new constituencies if it is to have a chance at holding executive power.
In other words: The Electoral College distorts the character of our parties, nudging one of them to be a majority-seeking organism and the other to be a base-pleasing organism. The character of our two parties today flows from the system architecture used to allocate power.
This is a high, abstract concept. But it explains—perfectly—what we have seen at the two conventions.
Here is the full Bulward article - highly recommend you give them a follow if you like astute political reporting: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/democr...&isFreemail=false&r=12sbjk&triedRedirect=true
