Interesting line movement Iowa@Iowa State
- Thread starter DallasIAHawk
- Start date
I'm not going to go back and forth, drops are part of the game last time I checked. Missing open targets and not leading WRs is much more concerning at this point. Plays like the one to Tracy are game changers that are entirely on the QB.
No one said he never makes mistakes. He obviously does. But you have to acknowledge others mistakes as well. Including the WRs and TEs. He led plenty of receivers/TEs on Saturday, including the ones that were drops and two were for sure first downs. Those are game changing plays and entirely on the receivers/TEs
Last I checked Stanley made plenty of mistakes. How many open throws did Stanley miss? The pass Stanley missed to Hockenson at PSU was way worse than the Petras throw to Tracy. So again, to hold up Stanley like he is so much better than Petras is kind of silly. Go go look at Stanley's junior year game against ISU. Those same stats would get Petras killed on here. There is a bias because of what we saw at times last year. It's all about expectations. If you are expecting elite level QB play you aren't going to get it. But Petras can definitely be a game manage type QB.
Actually, it's 16 points. Texas got a TD, West Virginia got two FGs, Oklahoma got a FG and Kansas State, Oregon and UNI were shut out.
Historically ... when ISU struggles some against a FCS foe ... they then come out MUCH, MUCH better against Iowa. And, sadly for Hawk fans ... they've usually won in those circumstances. I wonder if, in part, that is because the Hawks then overlooked them OR because ISU was mortified by their prior performance and wanted to come out and play much better (and hence, were suitably motivated) ... OR both factors.
Anyhow, with any luck ... the Hawks players won't be overlooking the Cyclones ... despite ISU not looking that great in week one.
One problem, as I see it ... is that the Indiana game really played big to Iowa's advantage because the Hoosiers are known more as a big-play, lower-percentage passing team. Iowa didn't give them many one-on-one jump ball opportunities ... so we simply prevented them from blowing off the top of the D.
Furthermore, Indiana has a middling running game ... so even when they could move the ball ... they couldn't punch it in when they were in the red-zone.
In contrast, ISU's O is pretty perfectly suited to go up against Iowa's style of D. ISU has a high-percentage passing game ... willing to dink and dunk you to death ... AND they have a quality RB and running game so that they can score when they get into the red zone.
The big test for Iowa is the following:
- Can the D harass Purdy while still slowing the run? Often times there can be a trade-off between being aggressive with the pass-rush ... and being disciplined when maintaining gap-assignments vs the run. Harassing Purdy is key ... because he's lethal when he's feeling comfortable. However, he's drops quickly to being more mediocre when he's facing constant pressure.
- Iowa's run game likely will get bottled up ... so will that equate to opportunities for the Hawks in the passing game? If so ... can Petras take advantage? As others have indicated ... even when Stanley had his issues ... I'd say that most of us still trusted him to be able to help win games. I don't think that Petras has earned that trust of the fans yet ... can he and will he?
Stanley's overall passer ratings for each of his last 3 years at Iowa were over 130, if Petras can even approach those numbers Iowa will have a great season this year. So yes I would easily take Stanley over Petras at this point. Really nothing silly about it.
"Vegas" doesn't predict the games, they set the spread to get even money on both sides....betters set the spread.
Well not even money, they just don't want to suffer huge losses if the spread is wrong. If it was even, they wouldn't make anything.
Yes the spread is set for equal betting on both sides. They are happy to collect the juice to make the bet.
That play certainly was on Petras (relating to the pass to Tracy) ... however, you also have to remember that he had a corner blitz coming right at him. The pressure led to a rushed throw. Fighting our psychology is much easier said than done.
Perhaps the bigger issue was the missed pass to IKM that skipped on the ground. If memory serves, Petras was moving some to his left. For him to complete the throw, he would have needed to take an extra moment to set himself, turn his hips, and then deliver the ball using better mechanics. He didn't do that ... so he couldn't benefit from as much torsion from his hips and torso ... so the ball was low and errant. I would guess that he was worried more about timing and getting the ball off on time ... but he needed to make sure that he was also delivering a good ball.
Anyhow, many folks here might not be appreciating that Spencer has a lot more on his plate this year than he had last year ... and, early in the season, that likely might lead to him thinking more. When that happens ... the game doesn't feel as slow to the player ... and that leads guys to rush things. If you don't believe me ... go back and watch Stanley through the first part of the 2018 season. Stanley looked like he "reverted" some early in the season ... but that was also relating to the fact that far more of the O was flowing through him.
They're not looking to make money on people losing their bets. They make money on every bet. They want even betting on both sides so that they can make money with zero risk.
I can assure you no one is overlooking anyone.....you’re delusional if you don’t think both teams are going to be motivated for this game.... top 10.... game day..... national exposure and in state rivalry..... come on mann
I would like to bet against anyone who thinks Iowa will have a letdown against ISU.
Very interesting that the line and movement direction are in full cognizance of last saturday's games. iowa's dominance of indiana was apparently built into the line prior to the game, which likely means indiana was expected to be weak. similarly isu's apparent struggle against uni was also prefactored and doesn't imply that isu is weak. otherwise, i would've expect significant line movement the other way.
my takeaway is that the market is overall down on iowa's offense at this point. even against a team with subpar DL and Lbs, iowa simply could not rush the ball. indiana did have an excellent back-4 (as does isu if i'm right) and they were able to keep the iowa pass game locked down as well. this has offset any upside suprise offered by the D.
my takeaway is that the market is overall down on iowa's offense at this point. even against a team with subpar DL and Lbs, iowa simply could not rush the ball. indiana did have an excellent back-4 (as does isu if i'm right) and they were able to keep the iowa pass game locked down as well. this has offset any upside suprise offered by the D.
Disagree. Why can't we at Iowa think big and dream a little? A loss on Saturday hurts Iowa's big picture goals. Do we want to fall back to #18? Notre Dame is two spots ahead of us at #8. With a win on Saturday, and a Notre Dame loss playing Wisconsin on September 25, Iowa could possibly come close to cracking the Top 5.
You may be right that that's what's driving the line. Not sure if Iowa's O couldn't move the ball or if they just played conservative with a big lead.
I'd say leading 14-0 after two minutes would change the game plan significantly.
I took that online. Lose by 4 and still a winner money wise. If Iowa State wins it will be by 1 TD or less. If Iowa wins I would guess it would be a wider margin of victory.
I see over on CF they had one frequent user suggesting they intentionally injure a certain Iowa player. That's so nice.
Feel free to look at both, the D is very good any way you look at it. It’s phenomenal at making 2nd half adjustments…which was the point of the stat I cited.
One reason might be that in the last two games at Trice, Iowa tailed in the fourth quarter by, respectively, 10 and 7 points but came back to win. If you prefer to retroactively not count those quarters, it's fine with me.
Very good by big12 standards, maybe! Not even in the top 5 of BIG10 defenses, maybe around 7 or 8.
Take this advice with extreme skepticism. FWIW, this poster has also asserted that Adrian Martinez was the best QB in the B10 and that Iowa would start the 2021 season at 0-2.
Sure ... given the context of the current game, hopefully there is no lack of motivation. However, in the past ... I know for certain that past Iowa squads overlooked seemingly floundering ISU squads. But yeah ... that likely doesn't happen this year.
No they don’t. Its not uncommon to have 80% bet on one side. Vegas is always rooting for underdogs and unders.
They desire to have equal amount bet on each side. Does it always happen? Nope, but that's their goal. They make their money on the juice and don't want the exposure of lopsided betting on anything.
Looks like someone has a secret crush on the Hawks to be a frequent poster in these parts.
What about running into each other? Did Vegas consider that possibility?
Our defense appears to be legit and as good as it's been for some time. My only concern is that the coaching staff keeps them dialed in and not allow them to be overly confident and just play fundamental football. I'm slightly concerned that we come out a little amped and try to jump a route and get burned for a big play thus igniting the cYclOne nATiOn. However, if we play to our ability defensively and our offense can muster just a little life and be average, I like our chances.
