Iowa Baseball . . . looking ahead

[AuroraHawk]

Yes, I'm fully aware that it is folly but since I'm not on the team and there is no downside to a fan looking ahead, here goes.

Courtesy of @Alum-Ni - here are the current B1G Standings (bolded teams are remaining opponents):
1. Nebraska (21-11-1, 7-2)
2. Indiana (25-11, 9-3)
3. Maryland (21-14, 6-3)
3. Michigan State (23-10, 6-3)
5. Michigan (19-16, 7-5)
5. Purdue (16-18, 7-5)
7. Iowa (25-9, 4-5)
7. Minnesota (10-24, 4-5)
7. Rutgers (20-16, 4-5)
10. Illinois (15-17, 4-8)
10. Northwestern (5-25, 3-6)
12. Ohio State (18-17, 3-9)
13. Penn State (19-13, 2-7)

Iowa's B1G schedule is as follows: Nebraska (3-H); PSU (3-A); OSU (3-H); MSU (3-H); Northwestern (3-A). The RPIs of those teams are respectively: 112, 143, 93, 56, 265.
Iowa's non-conference schedule is: UIC (A); Bradley (H); Illinois State (H); UIC (H). The RPIs of those teams are respectively: 140, 157, 212, 140.

Question 1: Has Iowa played its way out of a regular season B1G championship?
With games against the bottom 3 teams remaining, my answer to that question is "not quite" but it would likely have to run the table against those 3 teams. Realistically, to have even an outside chance, the worst Iowa can do this weekend is winning the series 2 games to 1. Losing the series to Nebraska 2 games to 1 would leave Iowa 4 games behind Nebraska with 12 to play and the balance Nebraska's schedule looks manageable (Minnesota, Maryland, PSU and Purdue). Indiana already has 12 games played and also has a favorable schedule with Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, MSU. I'm thinking that Iowa has to hope that 17-7 will be the best record in the B1G this year (Maryland was 18-5 last year as the conference champ and 17-7 finished second (Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers)) and I simply don't see 17-7 being an "outright" conference champ; there would likely be ties. That would require Iowa to go 13-2 while Nebraska goes 10-5 or worse; Indiana goes 8-4 or worse; and Maryland / MSU goes 11-4 or worse. Of those scenarios, Iowa going 13-2 seems to be the most far-fetched. I'd rule it out entirely if it wasn't for the fact that going 9-0 against Northwestern, OSU and PSU isn't out of the realm of reality. I'm not giving up just quite yet but this weekend's series could snuff that flame.

Question 2: What will it take for Iowa to earn an at-large bid?
I'm too lazy to look up what I wrote last year regarding the history of the B1G but I seem to recall that the regular season conference champion has earned a bid every year - even if it didn't win the B1G tournament. So . . . somehow getting to the top of the B1G regular season would seem to be one route.
Iowa is, for tournament selection purposes, 22-9. It has 19 games left. What if Iowa won the remainder of its mid-week games; finished the B1G season 11-4; and played its way into the final weekend of the B1G tournament? It would be 37-13 / 15-9 in regular season and have at least 2 wins in the B1G tournament. While "who they lost to" would certainly come into play, that would put them close to 40 wins, including quality wins against non-conf NCAA teams LSU, Indiana State and Texas Tech.
FWIW, the "Predicted Results" algorithm used by Warren Nolan's site suggests that if Iowa finishes 37-13 / 16-8, its RPI would be 29. Under its algorithm, Iowa loses one of its non-conf games and finishes B1G season 12-3. Setting aside the actual predictive nature of that program, I find it interesting that, if it catches a hot streak, Iowa could get its RPI into the upper 20s. That tells me that getting into the 30s or low 40s isn't outside the realm of reality.
I'm thinking 37-13 / 15-9 in regular season, getting to the weekend of B1G tournament play and we'll be watching the selection show while biting our nails. If Iowa can't do better than 14-10 in the B1G regular season or ends up getting tripped up in mid-week games, I think that we'll be hoping for a magical B1G tournament win for Iowa to get into a Regional

Lots of work to be done and it starts tonight.

 

[AuroraHawk]

I’m obviously bad luck. This freaking sucks.

 

[Fair Child]

I’m obviously bad luck. This freaking sucks.

They seem to.be sleep walking.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

When you become a borderline NCAA team year in and year out, it's time to stop treating midweek games like a JV game where everyone pitches. Find a young fourth starter that's capable of going five innings or at least two trips through a lineup even if they aren't ready for the weekend starts. If the offense shows up, you'll still have ample time to get the other guys an inning here and there. Frustrating to almost expect to lose these midweek games. We are the hunted now, not the hunter to these schools we are playing and we have a lot to lose.

 

[BigOHawk]

Can't keep losing mid week games it will crush RPI and you would need to win big ten tournament

 

[BigOHawk]

I’m obviously bad luck. This freaking sucks.

Luckily so far only dropped a few RPI. I didn't track game what happened? Indirect games must've went our way.

 

[Randy Marsh]

Fart noises.

Couldn’t throw a strike for shit in the 5th or 6th inning. Went from 6-3 to 11-3. I turned it off at that point after seeing about an inning.

 

[Alum-Ni]

Can't keep losing mid week games it will crush RPI and you would need to win big ten tournament

Ain't that the truth

 

[Fair Child]

They seem to.be sleep walking.

'

Ain't that the truth

UIC leads the series? Totally unacceptable.

 

[AuroraHawk]

When you become a borderline NCAA team year in and year out, it's time to stop treating midweek games like a JV game where everyone pitches. Find a young fourth starter that's capable of going five innings or at least two trips through a lineup even if they aren't ready for the weekend starts. If the offense shows up, you'll still have ample time to get the other guys an inning here and there. Frustrating to almost expect to lose these midweek games. We are the hunted now, not the hunter to these schools we are playing and we have a lot to lose.

Preach.
Had a very similar discussion with a good friend of mine last night.
I think that Heller views Anthony as a pitcher who can give 3-4 decent innings. However, his performance this year hasn't exactly inspired even a modicum on confidence. I was hoping Obermueller got the start yesterday (maybe he's starting today).

That written, I've had the pleasure of speaking with Heller a couple of times and listened to him speak about his philosophy of mid-week games. He very much views them as necessary for a good number of his non-weekend pitchers to get "real" work in.

I don't know what the rule may be but perhaps getting "real" work in could be accomplished by scheduling scrimmages against other teams . . . hell, if possible, they could even schedule scrimmages against ISU's and UNI's club teams.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Couldn’t throw a strike for shit in the 5th or 6th inning.

This.
Drives.
Me.
Crazy.
Biggest.
Pet.
Peeve.

 

[BigOHawk]

Preach.
Had a very similar discussion with a good friend of mine last night.
I think that Heller views Anthony as a pitcher who can give 3-4 decent innings. However, his performance this year hasn't exactly inspired even a modicum on confidence. I was hoping Obermueller got the start yesterday (maybe he's starting today).

That written, I've had the pleasure of speaking with Heller a couple of times and listened to him speak about his philosophy of mid-week games. He very much views them as necessary for a good number of his non-weekend pitchers to get "real" work in.

I don't know what the rule may be but perhaps getting "real" work in could be accomplished by scheduling scrimmages against other teams . . . hell, if possible, they could even schedule scrimmages against ISU's and UNI's club teams.

That's fine to try and get work in, however is it really worth losing several RPI spots to get that work in? If this happens 2-3 times/season and you lose say 10 RPI spots because of bad midweek losses that very well could be the difference between getting a regional or not if you are sitting with an RPI in the 40s or 50s (ask Rutgers last year!).
Now the flipside is throwing some of your pitchers who 'could' pitch a weekend series either starters or bullpen and wasting those arms during the week...seems like a fine line but a must win tonight!

 

[Franisdaman]

Iowa is a 3 seed in the latest D1 Baseball Field of 64 projection.

Iowa is currently one of the Last Five In.

 

[AuroraHawk]

That's fine to try and get work in, however is it really worth losing several RPI spots to get that work in? If this happens 2-3 times/season and you lose say 10 RPI spots because of bad midweek losses that very well could be the difference between getting a regional or not if you are sitting with an RPI in the 40s or 50s (ask Rutgers last year!).
Now the flipside is throwing some of your pitchers who 'could' pitch a weekend series either starters or bullpen and wasting those arms during the week...seems like a fine line but a must win tonight!

Big O -
Couldn't agree more. That "balancing" act is a tough one for a northern school that simply doesn't have the depth of other programs.

I'll use Tulane as an example. Tulane can schedule a mid-week game against LSU, pitch a number of its "non-weekenders," take a loss (even a bad one) and enhance its RPI. Iowa does not have that luxury.

While I'll fully admit to being biased, I think that a flaw in the RPI system involves weighing mid-week games the same as Friday, Saturday and Sunday games. I don't have a clue as to how you can re-work RPI to factor that into the calculation but the system would be more fair if it did.

As fate has it, I'm a long-suffering Pittsburgh Pirates fan. If Mitch Keller (the Bucs' #1 starter) is pitching against the Dodgers #5 starter, analytics would conclude that the Pirates have a far better chance of winning that game than if Vince Velasquez (the Bucs' #5 starter) was on the mound. Certainly, the odds makers in Vegas would have a much different line if Keller was starting as opposed to Velasquez.

But . . . RPI doesn't factor in those types of analytics. Under the RPI approach, a Pirate win with its #1 pitcher over the Dodgers with its #5 pitcher is no different than a Pirate win with its #5 pitcher over the Dodgers' #5. When, in reality, the amount of (hypothetical) RPI points the Pirates should gain and the Dodgers should lose should be markedly different.

In my mind, performance on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays is the true test of how good a team may be. That's when the best players are playing and the best pitchers are pitching. Certainly more so for northern schools than southern schools.

And, really, is there any other sport, other than softball, that plays out in such fashion? Not football. Not basketball. Not hockey. Not volleyball. Not wrestling.

 

[BigOHawk]

Big O -
Couldn't agree more. That "balancing" act is a tough one for a northern school that simply doesn't have the depth of other programs.

I'll use Tulane as an example. Tulane can schedule a mid-week game against LSU, pitch a number of its "non-weekenders," take a loss (even a bad one) and enhance its RPI. Iowa does not have that luxury.

While I'll fully admit to being biased, I think that a flaw in the RPI system involves weighing mid-week games the same as Friday, Saturday and Sunday games. I don't have a clue as to how you can re-work RPI to factor that into the calculation but the system would be more fair if it did.

As fate has it, I'm a long-suffering Pittsburgh Pirates fan. If Mitch Keller (the Bucs' #1 starter) is pitching against the Dodgers #5 starter, analytics would conclude that the Pirates have a far better chance of winning that game than if Vince Velasquez (the Bucs' #5 starter) was on the mound. Certainly, the odds makers in Vegas would have a much different line if Keller was starting as opposed to Velasquez.

But . . . RPI doesn't factor in those types of analytics. Under the RPI approach, a Pirate win with its #1 pitcher over the Dodgers with its #5 pitcher is no different than a Pirate win with its #5 pitcher over the Dodgers' #5. When, in reality, the amount of (hypothetical) RPI points the Pirates should gain and the Dodgers should lose should be markedly different.

In my mind, performance on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays is the true test of how good a team may be. That's when the best players are playing and the best pitchers are pitching. Certainly more so for northern schools than southern schools.

And, really, is there any other sport, other than softball, that plays out in such fashion? Not football. Not basketball. Not hockey. Not volleyball. Not wrestling.

Basketball amended RPI, wonder if baseball might be next? Great post btw, while southern schools are enjoying decent weather year round, Iowa and others are inside trying to simulate a real practice and situation and Heller obviously isn't crazy about it but we do the best we can.

It seems we are in this same boat every year and point to 1-3 games where a different result puts us comfortably in the field, however I'll take the D1 baseball projection right now! Was '15 season our last regional I can't remember? Might be same season as playing OSU in Omaha in Big 10 title game, you've seen me post on this but it was an insane environment and black and gold overwhelmed downtown Omaha, it was beautiful to hear Let's Go Hawks roaring through the TD Amertrade concourses!

 

[BigOHawk]

Iowa is a 3 seed in the latest D1 Baseball Field of 64 projection.

Iowa is currently one of the Last Five In.

Midweek games and losses aside, this tells you the schedule advantage Iowa has from here on out and how D1 baseball is handicapping it. Aside from Sparty and Neb, Iowa SHOULD feast on NW, OSU and PSU, although I need to temper expectations and I'm already thinking about our #1 and #2 starter in B10 tourney...

 

[BondHawk]

This.
Drives.
Me.
Crazy.
Biggest.
Pet.
Peeve.

This is what we get from a culture of everyone posting their velo range and max FB speed at every Perfect Game tournament to Twitter.

That’s great Johnny, but how many of those were thrown for strikes?

 

[AuroraHawk]

Aside from Sparty and Neb, Iowa SHOULD feast on NW, OSU and PSU,

Thus far, this team has really struggled being able to put together three solid efforts in a weekend. I keep telling myself that the talent is better than the results but . . . when it keeps happening over and over and over, perhaps the results reflect the talent.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Iowa baseball back to being BAU.....

Unfortunate.

 

[BigOHawk]

6-1 winners tonight good pitching effort!

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

Well, we are back into the solid at-large territory.

I don’t think they’ve done this since joining the SEC but I wonder if where Mizzou finds itself, if both teams may find mutual benefit of playing 2 at midweek . Neither team has anything scheduled in the second midweek of May. Even going 0-2 wouldn’t hurt either that much.

 

[chonk]

Well, we are back into the solid at-large territory.

I don’t think they’ve done this since joining the SEC but I wonder if where Mizzou finds itself, if both teams may find mutual benefit of playing 2 at midweek . Neither team has anything scheduled in the second midweek of May. Even going 0-2 wouldn’t hurt either that much.

I like the idea but that’s probably finals week so no midweek games.