Yes, I'm fully aware that it is folly but since I'm not on the team and there is no downside to a fan looking ahead, here goes.
Courtesy of @Alum-Ni - here are the current B1G Standings (bolded teams are remaining opponents):
1. Nebraska (21-11-1, 7-2)
2. Indiana (25-11, 9-3)
3. Maryland (21-14, 6-3)
3. Michigan State (23-10, 6-3)
5. Michigan (19-16, 7-5)
5. Purdue (16-18, 7-5)
7. Iowa (25-9, 4-5)
7. Minnesota (10-24, 4-5)
7. Rutgers (20-16, 4-5)
10. Illinois (15-17, 4-8)
10. Northwestern (5-25, 3-6)
12. Ohio State (18-17, 3-9)
13. Penn State (19-13, 2-7)
Iowa's B1G schedule is as follows: Nebraska (3-H); PSU (3-A); OSU (3-H); MSU (3-H); Northwestern (3-A). The RPIs of those teams are respectively: 112, 143, 93, 56, 265.
Iowa's non-conference schedule is: UIC (A); Bradley (H); Illinois State (H); UIC (H). The RPIs of those teams are respectively: 140, 157, 212, 140.
Question 1: Has Iowa played its way out of a regular season B1G championship?
With games against the bottom 3 teams remaining, my answer to that question is "not quite" but it would likely have to run the table against those 3 teams. Realistically, to have even an outside chance, the worst Iowa can do this weekend is winning the series 2 games to 1. Losing the series to Nebraska 2 games to 1 would leave Iowa 4 games behind Nebraska with 12 to play and the balance Nebraska's schedule looks manageable (Minnesota, Maryland, PSU and Purdue). Indiana already has 12 games played and also has a favorable schedule with Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, MSU. I'm thinking that Iowa has to hope that 17-7 will be the best record in the B1G this year (Maryland was 18-5 last year as the conference champ and 17-7 finished second (Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers)) and I simply don't see 17-7 being an "outright" conference champ; there would likely be ties. That would require Iowa to go 13-2 while Nebraska goes 10-5 or worse; Indiana goes 8-4 or worse; and Maryland / MSU goes 11-4 or worse. Of those scenarios, Iowa going 13-2 seems to be the most far-fetched. I'd rule it out entirely if it wasn't for the fact that going 9-0 against Northwestern, OSU and PSU isn't out of the realm of reality. I'm not giving up just quite yet but this weekend's series could snuff that flame.
Question 2: What will it take for Iowa to earn an at-large bid?
I'm too lazy to look up what I wrote last year regarding the history of the B1G but I seem to recall that the regular season conference champion has earned a bid every year - even if it didn't win the B1G tournament. So . . . somehow getting to the top of the B1G regular season would seem to be one route.
Iowa is, for tournament selection purposes, 22-9. It has 19 games left. What if Iowa won the remainder of its mid-week games; finished the B1G season 11-4; and played its way into the final weekend of the B1G tournament? It would be 37-13 / 15-9 in regular season and have at least 2 wins in the B1G tournament. While "who they lost to" would certainly come into play, that would put them close to 40 wins, including quality wins against non-conf NCAA teams LSU, Indiana State and Texas Tech.
FWIW, the "Predicted Results" algorithm used by Warren Nolan's site suggests that if Iowa finishes 37-13 / 16-8, its RPI would be 29. Under its algorithm, Iowa loses one of its non-conf games and finishes B1G season 12-3. Setting aside the actual predictive nature of that program, I find it interesting that, if it catches a hot streak, Iowa could get its RPI into the upper 20s. That tells me that getting into the 30s or low 40s isn't outside the realm of reality.
I'm thinking 37-13 / 15-9 in regular season, getting to the weekend of B1G tournament play and we'll be watching the selection show while biting our nails. If Iowa can't do better than 14-10 in the B1G regular season or ends up getting tripped up in mid-week games, I think that we'll be hoping for a magical B1G tournament win for Iowa to get into a Regional
Lots of work to be done and it starts tonight.
Courtesy of @Alum-Ni - here are the current B1G Standings (bolded teams are remaining opponents):
1. Nebraska (21-11-1, 7-2)
2. Indiana (25-11, 9-3)
3. Maryland (21-14, 6-3)
3. Michigan State (23-10, 6-3)
5. Michigan (19-16, 7-5)
5. Purdue (16-18, 7-5)
7. Iowa (25-9, 4-5)
7. Minnesota (10-24, 4-5)
7. Rutgers (20-16, 4-5)
10. Illinois (15-17, 4-8)
10. Northwestern (5-25, 3-6)
12. Ohio State (18-17, 3-9)
13. Penn State (19-13, 2-7)
Iowa's B1G schedule is as follows: Nebraska (3-H); PSU (3-A); OSU (3-H); MSU (3-H); Northwestern (3-A). The RPIs of those teams are respectively: 112, 143, 93, 56, 265.
Iowa's non-conference schedule is: UIC (A); Bradley (H); Illinois State (H); UIC (H). The RPIs of those teams are respectively: 140, 157, 212, 140.
Question 1: Has Iowa played its way out of a regular season B1G championship?
With games against the bottom 3 teams remaining, my answer to that question is "not quite" but it would likely have to run the table against those 3 teams. Realistically, to have even an outside chance, the worst Iowa can do this weekend is winning the series 2 games to 1. Losing the series to Nebraska 2 games to 1 would leave Iowa 4 games behind Nebraska with 12 to play and the balance Nebraska's schedule looks manageable (Minnesota, Maryland, PSU and Purdue). Indiana already has 12 games played and also has a favorable schedule with Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue, MSU. I'm thinking that Iowa has to hope that 17-7 will be the best record in the B1G this year (Maryland was 18-5 last year as the conference champ and 17-7 finished second (Iowa, Illinois, Rutgers)) and I simply don't see 17-7 being an "outright" conference champ; there would likely be ties. That would require Iowa to go 13-2 while Nebraska goes 10-5 or worse; Indiana goes 8-4 or worse; and Maryland / MSU goes 11-4 or worse. Of those scenarios, Iowa going 13-2 seems to be the most far-fetched. I'd rule it out entirely if it wasn't for the fact that going 9-0 against Northwestern, OSU and PSU isn't out of the realm of reality. I'm not giving up just quite yet but this weekend's series could snuff that flame.
Question 2: What will it take for Iowa to earn an at-large bid?
I'm too lazy to look up what I wrote last year regarding the history of the B1G but I seem to recall that the regular season conference champion has earned a bid every year - even if it didn't win the B1G tournament. So . . . somehow getting to the top of the B1G regular season would seem to be one route.
Iowa is, for tournament selection purposes, 22-9. It has 19 games left. What if Iowa won the remainder of its mid-week games; finished the B1G season 11-4; and played its way into the final weekend of the B1G tournament? It would be 37-13 / 15-9 in regular season and have at least 2 wins in the B1G tournament. While "who they lost to" would certainly come into play, that would put them close to 40 wins, including quality wins against non-conf NCAA teams LSU, Indiana State and Texas Tech.
FWIW, the "Predicted Results" algorithm used by Warren Nolan's site suggests that if Iowa finishes 37-13 / 16-8, its RPI would be 29. Under its algorithm, Iowa loses one of its non-conf games and finishes B1G season 12-3. Setting aside the actual predictive nature of that program, I find it interesting that, if it catches a hot streak, Iowa could get its RPI into the upper 20s. That tells me that getting into the 30s or low 40s isn't outside the realm of reality.
I'm thinking 37-13 / 15-9 in regular season, getting to the weekend of B1G tournament play and we'll be watching the selection show while biting our nails. If Iowa can't do better than 14-10 in the B1G regular season or ends up getting tripped up in mid-week games, I think that we'll be hoping for a magical B1G tournament win for Iowa to get into a Regional
Lots of work to be done and it starts tonight.