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Iowa NCAA Tournament Resume shaping up

SotaHawk87

SotaHawk87

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Jan 3, 2015
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Lot of stuff gets thrown around on here about what is good and what is bad and Hawkeyes deserve this or don’t deserve that… when breaking down what the committee will actually evaluate in March there’s some good and some bad. First, Iowas SOS is not as bad as most would think. Also as of now Iowa does not have any losses outside of quad 1. Average NET loss of 13 is outstanding. On the flip side, 8 quad 4 games is never great and you’ll need to at least have 2 quad 1 wins to dance (not a certainty but based off past selections). Iowas average net win of 200 is awful but will come down in the Big Ten. Iowas analytic rankings on the left side of the team sheet are very much in line with where bracket matrix has Iowa (8 ish seed). “Plenty of opportunities” doesn’t fit the narrative as much this year as here are Iowas remaining chances for quad 1 wins. These will obviously fluctuate, but the home ones against Purdue and Michigan State feel massive. We’ll see what Michigan does but there’s a chance a road win there could be against a team that isn’t in the NCAA tournament.

Quad 1- Purdue (loss), @ Ohio State (win), and @illinois.

Iowa Hawkeyes NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2022 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Iowa Hawkeyes 2022 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com
 
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Well, given our heavily front loaded B1G schedule, I believe we still have 8-9 games with teams currently behind us in the conference standings.
 
As alluded to above, 7 wins (against any remaining teams) and Hawks make the Tourney. Time to start the countdown...
 
Still a solid team sheet. I still think the biggest thing could bite the hawks is that quad 1 section. While 10-10 should do the trick, seeding could be impacted with no quad 1 wins.

Iowa Hawkeyes NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2022 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Iowa Hawkeyes 2022 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com
 
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I don’t know about you guys but when I look at Iowa’s conference schedule it seems like we have a very easy one relative to what it could have been. I guess we have to wait to the end to find out? I’m worried it will be used against us in seeding. Not that it matters - I don’t think we have the guards to go very far.
 
Underwhelming for signature win, unless they can pull off an upset against one of the top 4 or 5 in the league. But I had them falling short of the tourney. If they can just make it in that's exceeding expectations.
 
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ObeseMuffins said:
I would argue that a lot of teams don't really look the part this year. Seems like there's not really a strong top 10, IMO.
Click to expand...
Yeah usually 8-11 seeds “don’t look the part”. There are some teams much worse than Iowa currently in the projected field as at large teams.
 
Pepperman said:
I don’t know about you guys but when I look at Iowa’s conference schedule it seems like we have a very easy one relative to what it could have been. I guess we have to wait to the end to find out? I’m worried it will be used against us in seeding. Not that it matters - I don’t think we have the guards to go very far.
Click to expand...

JoeT seems to be improving and is an above average PG for B1G when you look at both offense and defense. Ulis is adequate backup at PG


JBo, CMAC, Perkins look underwhelming. Perkins started out impressive but seems to have lost his shot and had poor game vs Rutgers. CMAC does everything except he can not shoot. JBO was always a defensive liability, now he is even struggling with his shot. I think JBO can turn around his shot, but getting open to shoot it is a problem.

This squad can play better defense than past teams, maybe that can give them a chance if they make NCAAs
 
I think Iowa is going to need 11 conference wins to get in. Right now their best win is Indiana. They have a weak non conference resume. Iowa can definitely get to 11 wins with the favorable February schedule they have. This team is going to lack SOS and and quality wins and will need to get in by total wins.
 
Auger said:
I think Iowa is going to need 11 conference wins to get in. Right now their best win is Indiana. They have a weak non conference resume. Iowa can definitely get to 11 wins with the favorable February schedule they have. This team is going to lack SOS and and quality wins and will need to get in by total wins.
Click to expand...
No they will get in because they deserve it compared to other teams on the bubble.
 
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I think they probably need to get to 21 wins total. Big conferences like ACC and PAC 12 being down a bit will help keep the bubble somewhat soft.

I apparently have a different point of view as far as their chances if they get in. I think this is exactly the type of team that could give higher seeds some fits if the matchup is right. Having a star player at the 3/4 position vs the 5 like last year I think would be a big equalizer.
 
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The conference as a whole is down this year, probably only a couple teams are better/equal to last year. I don't think Iowa is that good at all, but at the same time look what last year's tournament showed us. Great regular season resumes don't get you much come March Madness. Certainly the Hawks could pull an Oregon St kind of run, maybe they could win and catch an upset on the other side of the bracket for the first time in 40 years.
 
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Auger said:
I think Iowa is going to need 11 conference wins to get in. Right now their best win is Indiana. They have a weak non conference resume. Iowa can definitely get to 11 wins with the favorable February schedule they have. This team is going to lack SOS and and quality wins and will need to get in by total wins.
Click to expand...
10 and they are easily in. The bubble has been extremely weak for years now. Iowas net ranking is very high.
 
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SotaHawk87 said:
Still a solid team sheet. I still think the biggest thing could bite the hawks is that quad 1 section. While 10-10 should do the trick, seeding could be impacted with no quad 1 wins.

Iowa Hawkeyes NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet 2022 Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

NET - Nitty Gritty Report & Team Sheet for Iowa Hawkeyes 2022 Men's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the report used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams in the national championship tournament with quadrants
www.warrennolan.com www.warrennolan.com
Click to expand...
Agree. I'm not a stat guy, but I checked the NET rankings a couple days ago, and we were the only team in the top 40 that didn't have a Q1 win.
 
Pepperman said:
I don’t know about you guys but when I look at Iowa’s conference schedule it seems like we have a very easy one relative to what it could have been. I guess we have to wait to the end to find out? I’m worried it will be used against us in seeding. Not that it matters - I don’t think we have the guards to go very far.
Click to expand...
https://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=B10

You are correct. Iowa’s overall conference SOS is rated 12th and we have the 2nd easiest schedule left in the conference.

Amongst the teams currently above them in the standings, they only play Purdue and Illinois twice.

Iowa’s strength of record is currently 39th which translates to a low 10 seed. There aren’t as many opportunities for good wins as people would think.
 
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Iowa has a really weak schedule in February which will drop us in the rankings. Iowa doesn't have many shots at quad 1 wins left. Iowa will likely be sitting in March with an average SOS ranking and if they only have a win against Indiana as a key win, combined with a weak non con I don't think 10 wins in the B1G gets Iowa in. 1 of those 10 wins better be against Purdue, Illinois or MSU then. There is a real strong possibility that Iowa doesn't finish the season with a quad 1 win which is pretty crazy for a Power Conference team hoping to make the dance. There are currently 6 teams in the B1G they could beat at home to earn a quad 1 win and 9 on the road to earn a quad 1 win. So yeah if Iowa doesn't get at least 1 it looks pretty bad. There are currently only 3 teams in the B1G without a quad 1 win and Iowa is one of them
 
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Pepperman said:
I don’t know about you guys but when I look at Iowa’s conference schedule it seems like we have a very easy one relative to what it could have been. I guess we have to wait to the end to find out? I’m worried it will be used against us in seeding. Not that it matters - I don’t think we have the guards to go very far.
Click to expand...
Yes and not. Play Purdue and Illinois twice, who for my money are the 2 best teams. Also play Michigan twice, which looked very tough to start the season but Wolverines have been less than expected. They won by 18 today at Indiana though, so looks like they are finding it.

On the other hand, Iowa does play Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota and Maryland twice. Any of the road games are potential to lose, but have to win at minimum 6 of those 8 games, and ideally win 7 or 8 of them. If Iowa makes it to .500 in the league, how many of the games against OSU, Michigan, Purdue, OSU left can Iowa pick off?
 
Just 4 quad 1 opportunities left. Hopefully Indiana gets hot and can break into the top 30. I’m not liking the prospects at Michigan or Illinois at this moment. A little more hope for away games at Ohio State and home against MSU.. Metrics are still super solid so I still feel good about 10-10 but did we ever find out if there has been an at large with 0 quad 1 wins?
 
Hawks are likely on a knife's edge when it comes to making the tourney, so having any of these borderline teams that they beat starting to look better helps.
Still, anything less than .500 in the league almost certainly won't be good enough to get in barring a run to at least the finals of the BTT.
 
StormHawk42 said:
I think they probably need to get to 21 wins total. Big conferences like ACC and PAC 12 being down a bit will help keep the bubble somewhat soft.

I apparently have a different point of view as far as their chances if they get in. I think this is exactly the type of team that could give higher seeds some fits if the matchup is right. Having a star player at the 3/4 position vs the 5 like last year I think would be a big equalizer.
Click to expand...

I agree...if Fran actually coached for defense, this team has abilty to give a good team in Round of 32 fits and make the sweet16. I'm not convinced Fran will coach this team up to its talent and Iowa more likely NIT bound.

Last year's team did not play defense and relying on 2 guys that were disabled and and a tiny slow point guard was not a winning recipe.
 
HawkLogic said:
I agree...if Fran actually coached for defense, this team has abilty to give a good team in Round of 32 fits and make the sweet16. I'm not convinced Fran will coach this team up to its talent and Iowa more likely NIT bound.

Last year's team did not play defense and relying on 2 guys that were disabled and and a tiny slow point guard was not a winning recipe.
Click to expand...
😂😂😂😂😂
 
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