Donald Trump is the biggest loser in the new Iowa Poll.
The pious Ben Carson has plowed past the braggadocious New York businessman to take the front-runner crown, unseating Trump as the most popular choice for president among likely GOP caucusgoers, the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.
Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the favorite choice for 28 percent — 9 percentage points ahead of Trump's 19 percent.
Even Carson’s most controversial comments — about Muslims, Hitler and slavery — are attractive to likely Republican caucusgoers. The poll shows just two perceived weaknesses: his lack of foreign policy experience and his research using fetal tissue during his medical career.
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Carson's support has jumped 10 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll in August, and Trump's has fallen 4 points. This shift to a new pack leader is a thunderclap in the Republican presidential race.
“Donald Trump’s got a real problem,” GOP strategist Alex Castellanos told the Register. “Ben Carson is now the favorite to win Iowa.”
Asked which candidate they’d like to see drop out of the race, if anyone, more caucusgoers (25 percent) name Trump than any of his 14 rivals. And among both moderates and caucusgoers ages 44 or under, 36 percent would like him to quit, noted J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.
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Moving up into third place in the Iowa horse race is Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, at 10 percent support.
Close on his heels is the top establishment contender, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, at 9 percent.
Tied for fifth at 5 percent are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, the son of three-time presidential candidate Ron Paul.
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Wallowing in the dregs of the new poll are a pack of political insiders: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 3 percent; Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, each with 2 percent; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 1 percent; and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki, each with less than a point.
“The outsiders are still beating the insiders, of course, but that’s not what is interesting,” Castellanos said. “What’s interesting is that the moral outsider (Carson) is whipping the businessman-not-politician-outsider (Trump) and crushing the hope-and-change insiders (Bush and Rubio).”
The results suggest that Iowa GOP caucusgoers see America’s decline as primarily a moral problem, Castellanos said.
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Carson has plenty of room to grow in Iowa: He’s at 28 percent in the horse race, but he could exploit another 25 percentage points from the 53 percent of caucusgoers who have "very favorable" feelings about him, Castellanos said.
“In other words, Carson could blow this out,” he said.
Poll respondent Bruce Lindberg, a 56-year-old chiropractor who lives in Ottumwa, said Carson is his No. 1 choice because "he’s very intelligent. He speaks from his heart. ... I just think it’s time for honesty. And we need to figure out how to slow down the government spending somehow.”
The poll shows Trump has little headroom.
“His problem is, shy and retiring wallflower that he is, he is well-known,” Castellanos said. “Trump has left little ambiguity about who he is with voters."
Carson's overall favorability rating, combining "very" and "mostly" favorable responses, stands at a field-leading 84 percent, with just 12 percent unfavorable. He's followed by Rubio (70 percent view him positively, 20 percent negatively) and Fiorina (66 percent/22 percent).
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If Trump collapses a few more points, there is a chance Rubio or Fiorina could climb into second place, Castellanos said. “If Trump pulls out, all hands on deck,” he said.
Strategists for Cruz think he’s poised to gain steam right before the Iowa caucuses Feb. 1, because he stands at the intersection of rabble-rouser outsider and Washington insider.
But Castellanos said these poll numbers indicate that “as long as Carson remains in the race, Cruz has nowhere to go.”
Cruz has a solid favorable rating: 61 percent view him positively, 26 percent negatively. But about twice as many likely caucusgoers have very favorable feelings about Carson compared with Cruz (53 percent to 28 percent), even though Cruz is second-highest in the field on that passion measure.
“Ted Cruz is in a good-looking car with a big engine, lots of gas, ready to roll — and the road ahead of him is blocked,” Castellanos said.
The Iowa Poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Trump’s backers think his forte is his forcefulness: He’ll stand up to anybody, they say.
Carson has a different superpower: His statements that he would be guided by his faith in God are an attractive attribute for 89 percent of likely caucusgoers. That's topped only by the 96 percent who find his perceived common sense attractive.
More at:
http://www.press-citizen.com/story/...ahead-of-donald-trump-iowa-poll-gop/74278414/
The pious Ben Carson has plowed past the braggadocious New York businessman to take the front-runner crown, unseating Trump as the most popular choice for president among likely GOP caucusgoers, the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.
Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the favorite choice for 28 percent — 9 percentage points ahead of Trump's 19 percent.
Even Carson’s most controversial comments — about Muslims, Hitler and slavery — are attractive to likely Republican caucusgoers. The poll shows just two perceived weaknesses: his lack of foreign policy experience and his research using fetal tissue during his medical career.
Iowa Poll: Who's up, down, or a bit of both
Iowa Poll: Gaffes? Carson gets benefit of doubt
Carson's support has jumped 10 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll in August, and Trump's has fallen 4 points. This shift to a new pack leader is a thunderclap in the Republican presidential race.
“Donald Trump’s got a real problem,” GOP strategist Alex Castellanos told the Register. “Ben Carson is now the favorite to win Iowa.”
Asked which candidate they’d like to see drop out of the race, if anyone, more caucusgoers (25 percent) name Trump than any of his 14 rivals. And among both moderates and caucusgoers ages 44 or under, 36 percent would like him to quit, noted J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.
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Moving up into third place in the Iowa horse race is Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, at 10 percent support.
Close on his heels is the top establishment contender, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, at 9 percent.
Tied for fifth at 5 percent are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, the son of three-time presidential candidate Ron Paul.
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Wallowing in the dregs of the new poll are a pack of political insiders: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 3 percent; Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, each with 2 percent; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 1 percent; and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki, each with less than a point.
“The outsiders are still beating the insiders, of course, but that’s not what is interesting,” Castellanos said. “What’s interesting is that the moral outsider (Carson) is whipping the businessman-not-politician-outsider (Trump) and crushing the hope-and-change insiders (Bush and Rubio).”
The results suggest that Iowa GOP caucusgoers see America’s decline as primarily a moral problem, Castellanos said.
Imgur
Carson has plenty of room to grow in Iowa: He’s at 28 percent in the horse race, but he could exploit another 25 percentage points from the 53 percent of caucusgoers who have "very favorable" feelings about him, Castellanos said.
“In other words, Carson could blow this out,” he said.
Poll respondent Bruce Lindberg, a 56-year-old chiropractor who lives in Ottumwa, said Carson is his No. 1 choice because "he’s very intelligent. He speaks from his heart. ... I just think it’s time for honesty. And we need to figure out how to slow down the government spending somehow.”
The poll shows Trump has little headroom.
“His problem is, shy and retiring wallflower that he is, he is well-known,” Castellanos said. “Trump has left little ambiguity about who he is with voters."
Carson's overall favorability rating, combining "very" and "mostly" favorable responses, stands at a field-leading 84 percent, with just 12 percent unfavorable. He's followed by Rubio (70 percent view him positively, 20 percent negatively) and Fiorina (66 percent/22 percent).
Imgur
If Trump collapses a few more points, there is a chance Rubio or Fiorina could climb into second place, Castellanos said. “If Trump pulls out, all hands on deck,” he said.
Strategists for Cruz think he’s poised to gain steam right before the Iowa caucuses Feb. 1, because he stands at the intersection of rabble-rouser outsider and Washington insider.
But Castellanos said these poll numbers indicate that “as long as Carson remains in the race, Cruz has nowhere to go.”
Cruz has a solid favorable rating: 61 percent view him positively, 26 percent negatively. But about twice as many likely caucusgoers have very favorable feelings about Carson compared with Cruz (53 percent to 28 percent), even though Cruz is second-highest in the field on that passion measure.
“Ted Cruz is in a good-looking car with a big engine, lots of gas, ready to roll — and the road ahead of him is blocked,” Castellanos said.
The Iowa Poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Oct. 16-19 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Trump’s backers think his forte is his forcefulness: He’ll stand up to anybody, they say.
Carson has a different superpower: His statements that he would be guided by his faith in God are an attractive attribute for 89 percent of likely caucusgoers. That's topped only by the 96 percent who find his perceived common sense attractive.
More at:
http://www.press-citizen.com/story/...ahead-of-donald-trump-iowa-poll-gop/74278414/
