Iowa's chances at the NCAA Tournament

[CP84]

Would a 5-2 finish put them in legitimate discussion as a bubble team?

That would be a very tough accomplishment with the four most difficult games remaining being on the road.

I think their RPI will improve significantly the remaining stretch as they head into the hardest part of their schedule. If they win 5 games I would think they'd be top 50 RPI with a 19-12 record (11-7 Big10). That would likely keep them at least in the 5th position in the conference.

I think 5 is the magic # plus a tournament win.

 

[Suterman]

It depends who the 5 wins are. If we beat Wisky, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan State and Indiana then it would help mightily...but that would also mean home losses to Illinois and Penn State which would be devastating. 5-2 ain't gonna cut it unless we get to the B1G tournament final and we may have to win it. As of today our resume is horrible.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

It depends who the 5 wins are. If we beat Wisky, Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan State and Indiana then it would help mightily...but that would also mean home losses to Illinois and Penn State which would be devastating. 5-2 ain't gonna cut it unless we get to the B1G tournament final and we may have to win it. As of today our resume is horrible.

At this rate, 11-7 could have us alone in 4th place at the end. I can't imagine only 3 teams making it

 

[youcantguardme]

At this rate, 11-7 could have us alone in 4th place at the end. I can't imagine only 3 teams making it

11-7 and a BTT win would get us in.

 

[DanL53]

The key to keep enjoying this conversation is tonight. It's all about tonight.

We win, we can talk about finishing 4-2 and enjoy an 11-7 Big Ten season. (Incidentally what I predicted and I'd only be one off for the entire year. ) But enough about me for now just in case we lose tonight. The thing that hurts is really one too many losses in the non-conference. Makes it tougher.

But to say for sure what kind of chance 11-7 gets us is only as accurate as a Chinese Fortune Cookie. Way too many scenarios with way too many teams and let's not forget that it isn't just how we finish, but how many teams besides us finish.

Unless someone wants to show a spreadsheet with about 1,000 variables....none of us have much of a clue. We just have to keep winning.

 

[Joes Place]

11-7 will get us consideration; to do that, we need to beat at least 3 tourney-capable teams
Most 'winnable' are @MN, @MSU and IU with losses to @WI and @MD

We're not considered a 'bubble' team, because we need to beat some bubble teams and take their positions. Whether Iowa does that or not, I expect only 1 of the 3 (MN, MSU, IU) to be in actual contention for an NCAA bid by the end of the season. 2 of them will likely be 9-9 and doubtful that would get tourney consideration this year. Although I could see NCAA taking one of them at 9-9 over a 10-8 Iowa team, particularly if it is a game we lost head-head.

If we finish the season 5-2, we'd be in pretty good shape. Beat MN, and they could end up 8-10 in conference and out of the conversation. This game is 'winnable' for them, and they can't afford more than 2 losses the rest of the way. Right now, @MD and @WI are their 'least winnable' games. Lose one more with those 2 and they are 9-9.

MN, MSU and IU are 'play in' games for us. We really cannot afford to lose any and expect tourney contention; if we end up worse than 9-9, we probably will not be in NIT either.

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

The key to keep enjoying this conversation is tonight. It's all about tonight.

We win, we can talk about finishing 4-2 and enjoy an 11-7 Big Ten season. (Incidentally what I predicted and I'd only be one off for the entire year. ) But enough about me for now just in case we lose tonight. The thing that hurts is really one too many losses in the non-conference. Makes it tougher.

But to say for sure what kind of chance 11-7 gets us is only as accurate as a Chinese Fortune Cookie. Way too many scenarios with way too many teams and let's not forget that it isn't just how we finish, but how many teams besides us finish.

Unless someone wants to show a spreadsheet with about 1,000 variables....none of us have much of a clue. We just have to keep winning.

Ditto !

 

[Suterman]

All I know is what I've read. Iowa has a huge hole to dig out of. They don't care who finishes 3rd or 8th in the conference, they are looking at overall resumes and Iowa does not measure up at this time. We have won 1 game on the road. 1.... and it's against the 14th place team. I just don't think 5-2 cuts it without several key wins along the way and in the tournament. I have seen prognostications that the only way Iowa gets to the dance is by winning the B1G tournament. Let's just keep winning and good things will happen in abundance.

 

[youcantguardme]

11-7 will get us consideration; to do that, we need to beat at least 3 tourney-capable teams
Most 'winnable' are @MN, @MSU and IU with losses to @WI and @MD

We're not considered a 'bubble' team, because we need to beat some bubble teams and take their positions. Whether Iowa does that or not, I expect only 1 of the 3 (MN, MSU, IU) to be in actual contention for an NCAA bid by the end of the season. 2 of them will likely be 9-9 and doubtful that would get tourney consideration this year. Although I could see NCAA taking one of them at 9-9 over a 10-8 Iowa team, particularly if it is a game we lost head-head.

If we finish the season 5-2, we'd be in pretty good shape. Beat MN, and they could end up 8-10 in conference and out of the conversation. This game is 'winnable' for them, and they can't afford more than 2 losses the rest of the way. Right now, @MD and @WI are their 'least winnable' games. Lose one more with those 2 and they are 9-9.

MN, MSU and IU are 'play in' games for us. We really cannot afford to lose any and expect tourney contention; if we end up worse than 9-9, we probably will not be in NIT either.

I think MD is a more winnable game than tonight. MD plays close games so they give their opponents a chance. Other than Melo they are young also. Minnies physical game worries me more.

 

[DanL53]

11-7 will get us consideration; to do that, we need to beat at least 3 tourney-capable teams
Most 'winnable' are @MN, @MSU and IU with losses to @WI and @MD

We're not considered a 'bubble' team, because we need to beat some bubble teams and take their positions. Whether Iowa does that or not, I expect only 1 of the 3 (MN, MSU, IU) to be in actual contention for an NCAA bid by the end of the season. 2 of them will likely be 9-9 and doubtful that would get tourney consideration this year. Although I could see NCAA taking one of them at 9-9 over a 10-8 Iowa team, particularly if it is a game we lost head-head.

If we finish the season 5-2, we'd be in pretty good shape. Beat MN, and they could end up 8-10 in conference and out of the conversation. This game is 'winnable' for them, and they can't afford more than 2 losses the rest of the way. Right now, @MD and @WI are their 'least winnable' games. Lose one more with those 2 and they are 9-9.

MN, MSU and IU are 'play in' games for us. We really cannot afford to lose any and expect tourney contention; if we end up worse than 9-9, we probably will not be in NIT either.

Incidentally. The last time we missed an NCAA invite we had a 9-9 Big Ten record and two Big Ten teams, Illinois and Minnesota, got invites with 8-10 records. That was Gesell and Woody's freshman year, when Valentine drove a stake in our hearts in the BTT.

 

[youcantguardme]

All I know is what I've read. Iowa has a huge hole to dig out of. They don't care who finishes 3rd or 8th in the conference, they are looking at overall resumes and Iowa does not measure up at this time. We have won 1 game on the road. 1.... and it's against the 14th place team. I just don't think 5-2 cuts it without several key wins along the way and in the tournament. I have seen prognostications that the only way Iowa gets to the dance is by winning the B1G tournament. Let's just keep winning and good things will happen in abundance.

If Iowa works themselves up to a third or fourth place league finish I don't see how they can be left out.

 

[BigOHawk]

Incidentally. The last time we missed an NCAA invite we had a 9-9 Big Ten record and two Big Ten teams, Illinois and Minnesota, got invites with 8-10 records. That was Gesell and Woody's freshman year, when Valentine drove a stake in our hearts in the BTT.

Oh, my, don't remind me, that game was as upset as I've ever been at a bball game. The fix was in, we win and we punch ticket to NCAAs! Green and the Sparty thugs weren't going to be denied by Teddy V! Marble was clearly fouled late in that game and the foul disparity was horrendous!

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

Oh, my, don't remind me, that game was as upset as I've ever been at a bball game. The fix was in, we win and we punch ticket to NCAAs! Green and the Sparty thugs weren't going to be denied by Teddy V! Marble was clearly fouled late in that game and the foul disparity was horrendous!

What is wrong with making a basket when the shot clock went off 2 seconds before or literally landing on Dev when he pumped faked and shot a 3 with no foul called? Comeon, Izzo is the Messiah.

 

[DanL53]

Oh, my, don't remind me, that game was as upset as I've ever been at a bball game. The fix was in, we win and we punch ticket to NCAAs! Green and the Sparty thugs weren't going to be denied by Teddy V! Marble was clearly fouled late in that game and the foul disparity was horrendous!

That's right, or we'd be talking about an outside chance at our 5th invite in a row. It's no wonder Fran gets red faced now and then, I think I...no, I think I am, permanently po'd.

We're 96th in RPI at this moment according to ESPN, Minnesota is tied for 22nd. I just want to see what happens if we win tonight.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I think an 11-7 finish is the minimum, and again, we'd need to win in the quarters of the BTT (be that 1 win or 2). The hope in that scenario is that we can pick off Wisconsin or Maryland on the road as our "signature" win to pair with Purdue at home. As Suterman pointed out, losses to Illinois or Penn State will hurt quite a bit as well. If we can get solid opponents in the BTT (Say, we somehow finish 4th and are able to beat #5 NW in the quarters, then we get to play Wisconsin), those games would help our RPI significantly, add 1 quality win, and the loss to a top team doesn't "hurt" us.

In the end, this likely becomes a moot point by the end of the week, as we're significant dogs in both games. So enjoy this ride while it lasts, I certainly wasn't expecting to be discussing being alive (even by winning out the last several games) at this point in the season given our youth and roster turnover from last year.

 

[youcantguardme]

That's right, or we'd be talking about an outside chance at our 5th invite in a row. It's no wonder Fran gets red faced now and then, I think I...no, I think I am, permanently po'd.

We're 96th in RPI at this moment according to ESPN, Minnesota is tied for 22nd. I just want to see what happens if we win tonight.

Minnesota will drop to 72 and we will be 73.

 

[Hawkeyestate81]

Minnesota will drop to 72 and we will be 73.

Wow 73 is HUGE, comeon HAWKS!

 

[Joes Place]

We'll need to have our perimeter defense playing well tonight to pull off a W.
That is what killed us vs. NU and IL. If we can keep them from clear looks and throw off their perimeter shooting, we can stay in this game.

 

[DanL53]

Minnesota will drop to 72 and we will be 73.

Never drink soda while opening up youcan'tguardme's posts. That was funny, probably about true as well.

 

[War Hawkeye]

This is the type of team that could get in with a "bad" RPI. Youngest team Iowa has ever had. 5 of our 10 losses were before December 4th. Since December 4th we're 11-5 (5-5 vs the top 100). We've lost 1 game to a team outside the RPI top 82 (Memphis is 81, Omaha 158) all year. We haven't had a "bad loss" in over 2 months.

Getting on the bubble is definitely possible if we play our cards right. I think our youth, and improvement over the course of the year( if we continue to improve) will be taken into account, just like our recent collapses have.

My 2 cents:

1. Gotta clean up at home. Have to go 3-0 vs Illinois, Indiana and Penn St.

2. Need to steal at least 1 on the road at Minnesota, Michigan St, Maryland and Wisconsin. Probably need to take 2.

7-0. We're a lock, 7-10 seed.
6-1. In, 10-12 seed.
5-2. Bubble. Likely need at least 1 win in BTT
4-3. Bubble. At least 2 in BTT, if not more.
3-4. Out.

* Obviously it matters who we beat and lose to (i.e. A win at Wisconsin is worth a lot more than a win at home vs Penn st).

 

[Joes Place]

That's right, or we'd be talking about an outside chance at our 5th invite in a row. It's no wonder Fran gets red faced now and then, I think I...no, I think I am, permanently po'd.

We're 96th in RPI at this moment according to ESPN, Minnesota is tied for 22nd. I just want to see what happens if we win tonight.

Yep....if you want a ticket to the postseason, you have to beat postseason caliber teams AND bubble teams.

Right now, MN, MSU and IU are all tourney-caliber and/or bubble teams. If we cannot defeat teams like this, we shouldn't be pretending we're a bubble team. MN has struggled as of late, so maybe we're in good position for an upset here. It seems that any team in this conference can come out on fire or flat and win or lose (particularly yesterday).

 

[Joes Place]

This is the type of team that could get in with a "bad" RPI. Youngest team Iowa has ever had. 5 of our 10 losses were before December 4th. Since December 4th we're 11-5 (5-5 vs the top 100). We've lost 1 game to a team outside the RPI top 82 (Memphis is 81, Omaha 158) all year. We haven't had a "bad loss" in over 2 months.

Getting on the bubble is definitely possible if we play our cards right. I think our youth, and improvement over the course of the year( if we continue to improve) will be taken into account, just like our recent collapses have.

My 2 cents:

1. Gotta clean up at home. Have to go 3-0 vs Illinois, Indiana and Penn St.

2. Need to steal at least 1 on the road at Minnesota, Michigan St, Maryland and Wisconsin. Probably need to take 2.

7-0. We're a lock, 7-10 seed.
6-1. In, 10-12 seed.
5-2. Bubble. Likely need at least 1 win in BTT
4-3. Bubble. At least 2 in BTT, if not more.
3-4. Out.

* Obviously it matters who we beat and lose to (i.e. A win at Wisconsin is worth a lot more than a win at home vs Penn st).

4-3 and we'd need to make the BTT finals I think. But we'd be in good position for an NIT berth then.

 

[youcantguardme]

Wow 73 is HUGE, comeon HAWKS!

 

[DanL53]

Yep....if you want a ticket to the postseason, you have to beat postseason caliber teams AND bubble teams.

Right now, MN, MSU and IU are all tourney-caliber and/or bubble teams. If we cannot defeat teams like this, we shouldn't be pretending we're a bubble team. MN has struggled as of late, so maybe we're in good position for an upset here. It seems that any team in this conference can come out on fire or flat and win or lose (particularly yesterday).

Just remember, we're a college basketball team playing against cheaters and thugs. And until I see who the refs are I simply can't make a prediction. Which is a sorry thing to have to say in and of itself.

Let's hope we show up loaded with double ought buckshot. This is a big game, yeah they all are, but destroying the Gophers would be sensational!

 

[Joes Place]

Just remember, we're a college basketball team playing against cheaters and thugs. And until I see who the refs are I simply can't make a prediction. Which is a sorry thing to have to say in and of itself.

Let's hope we show up loaded with double ought buckshot. This is a big game, yeah they all are, but destroying the Gophers would be sensational!

We need to go all "Carl Spangler" on their asses...

 

[DanL53]

We need to go all "Carl Spangler" on their asses...

Yes!!! Get the C4!!!

 

[Joes Place]

Yes!!! Get the C4!!!

"Don't worry about all these wires or anything.....this is just 'doctors orders'..."

 

[War Hawkeye]

We have won 1 game on the road. 1.... and it's against the 14th place team.

Michigan is 0-6 on the road. Indiana is 1-5. Illinois got their first road win last night. Pretty much every bubble team has a terrible road record. At least our worst road loss is a double OT loss to #80 Nebraska.

But you're point is still true, we've got to win a couple more on the road before we will be considered.

 

[youcantguardme]

One of Tom's teams 9/9 I think didn't get in because of RPI. I am somewhat of a college ball geek. I used to listen to the NCAA committee's explanations/call in show on the radio. That year it was all about RPI. The next year some other dip wad was on the radio explaining why RPI doesn't matter that much; what have you done for me lately, then the eye test. Year after year all new criteria. Seems like it was the KY game announcer that hosted that call in show. Hopefully things have changed. Anyhow this team has been fun to watch progress NCAA or no. If they don't make it this year, next year I see a chance to advance deep into the tourney.

 

[DanL53]

Augh!!! I want to go out and find someone from Minnesota and...well I shouldn't say. But I am fired up for this one. Been waiting and watching and hoping this game would mean something.

 

[youcantguardme]

Michigan is 0-6 on the road. Indiana is 1-5. Illinois got their first road win last night. Pretty much every bubble team has a terrible road record. At least our worst road loss is a double OT loss to #80 Nebraska.

But you're point is still true, we've got to win a couple more on the road before we will be considered.

You must of been drunker than me during the NW game.

 

[SSG T]

At this rate, 11-7 could have us alone in 4th place at the end. I can't imagine only 3 teams making it

Where they finish in the B1G with have very little effect on the selection committee, they'll look at overall resume. If that's better than others, they get in. If the 8th place team in the B1G or the 10th place team in the ACC have better resumes, the Hawks better hope for the NIT.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Running the RPI Wizard http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Iowa.html it appears the best Iowa can get to with any 5-2 scenario to close out the season is 62.

 

[youcantguardme]

Where they finish in the B1G with have very little effect on the selection committee, they'll look at overall resume. If that's better than others, they get in. If the 8th place team in the B1G or the 10th place team in the ACC have better resumes, the Hawks better hope for the NIT.

BIG is a power conference. It should absolutely matter where they finish in one of the best conferences. Not saying that should be the only consideration but it is an important one. Can you imagine Iowa finishing 4th and THREE teams behind them in conference standings get in? Not gonna happen. Fun argument though. C'mon Hawks just beat the goofers.

 

[Joes Place]

Where they finish in the B1G with have very little effect on the selection committee, they'll look at overall resume. If that's better than others, they get in. If the 8th place team in the B1G or the 10th place team in the ACC have better resumes, the Hawks better hope for the NIT.

I'd agree with this, except that in order to finish ahead of MSU, MN and IU, we need to beat all of them.
Finishing ahead in the conference with W's over MSU, MN, PU, IU and MI (and possibly WI or MD if we get that far) would put Iowa in a solid position for a bid; whichever teams finished below us would be bubble teams.

It gets messier if we 'tie' MN, MSU, IU or MI for conference finish, because in a pool of 10-8 or 9-9 teams, we'd still likely be 'last in line' for a spot due to weaker SoS and fewer overall wins. Due to all the games yet to play, every one of these teams is going to finish around 10-8 to 8-10; going 11-7 would be a solid differentiator.

 

[War Hawkeye]

You must of been drunker than me during the NW game.

Bad loss = losing to a bad team, not margin of loss

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Depending on which loss, going 6-1 gets them in the 50-52 range. That would typically be considered a bubble team.

 

[youcantguardme]

Bad loss = losing to a bad team, not margin of loss

Agree to disagree. Nebraska at that time had Morrow, not a bad player. I agree it was a bad loss because we were ahead by 4 and should of bagged the game. The NW game was unwatchable bad. My bad is team not showing up to play, no defense, no effort. Your bad is lost opportunity. We are both correct in our definition.

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

Unless someone wants to show a spreadsheet with about 1,000 variables....none of us have much of a clue. We just have to keep winning.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-hawkeyes/bracketology

 

[anon_bb9wlf9kj42py]

BIG is a power conference. It should absolutely matter where they finish in one of the best conferences. Not saying that should be the only consideration but it is an important one. Can you imagine Iowa finishing 4th and THREE teams behind them in conference standings get in? Not gonna happen. Fun argument though. C'mon Hawks just beat the goofers.

It happened the Haluska senior year didn't it?