Iowa's resume on the rise?
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport
Publisher
@hawkeyereport
We are down to the final stretch of the college basketball season.
For some conferences, this will be the start of their league tournaments. For most conferences, this is the final week of the regular season with schools jockeying for seeding spots.
This week the Hawkeyes have two very important games that could have a huge impact on where they are seeded the following week at the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis and in the NCAA Tournament.
First, let’s tackle the picture in the Big Ten.
Things almost went a little haywire on Sunday with Indiana and Minnesota nearly pulling off upsets on the road. Illinois and Wisconsin ended up holding serve on their home court, so we head into the final week of the regular season with Iowa likely needing a pair of wins to earn the coveted double bye.
If form holds this week and the expected teams win (which means Iowa goes 1-1), Iowa would end up with the six seed, playing the winner of Rutgers/Nebraska on Thursday night. If Rutgers happens to beat Maryland this week, then it would be Purdue/Nebraska.
What if Iowa beats Purdue on Tuesday and then goes on the road and beats Illinois?
KenPom.com gives Iowa a 43% chance of winning at Illinois and if that happens, the Hawkeyes will jump to a three seed.
There are other options out there that could adjust Iowa’s seed, but right now it looks like it’s most likely they will either be the six seed or the three seed, depending on other results.
If you want to play around with all the different options, check out this site and you can see the various paths.
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
Now on to the NCAA Tournament where Iowa’s stock appears to be on the rise. The Hawkeyes went 1-1 last week with the loss at Michigan State and the win on Saturday over Penn State.
The loss to the Spartans looks a little bit better after they went on the road and beat Maryland on Saturday evening.
Here’s where Iowa starts the week according to the various analytics sites
NCAA Net: 29
Ken Pom: 21
Sagarin: 19
BPI: 24
Torvik: 24
As far as the resume, we focus in on the Quad system used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
Here’s a refresher on how that works. There are four quads and every game falls into one of those quads, depending on if it’s at home, road, or neutral.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75. Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135. Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240. Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.
Here’s a look at the Iowa team sheet as we start the week. Thanks to WarrenNolan.com for the screen grab of the team sheet.
Here's a look at Iowa's team sheet.
A couple of notes. As mentioned in other updates because things can be close between quads, I like to look at the Quad 1 & 2 together. Measuring it that way, Iowa is 13-7, which is very good. The Hawkeyes also have a pair of Quad 1 and 2 games this week with Purdue at 35 and Illinois at 36 in the NET rankings.
If you keep track of the team sheet, you see that the loss to DePaul has fallen into the Quad 3 area. On the surface, that has become a bad loss. Not many would have thought that after their 12-1 start to the season, but here we are. Also, Rutgers and Illinois could jump into the Quad 1 category this week and that would add move those wins to Quad 1. Syracuse is getting dangerously close to falling into a Quad 2 win and Wisconsin is right at 30, so that home win over the Badgers might end up as a Quad 2 game.
The one thing to note as we start the week is Iowa’s NCAA Tournament seed is trending up heading into the final week of the regular season.
Over at bracketmatrix.com, which complies the work of all the bracket experts, has Iowa as a five seed. But, it’s worth noting that the average of a lot of teams is right there with Iowa in the low five seed category. I do think that a sweep this week could send Iowa up to a four seed heading into conference tournament week.
On Monday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Iowa as a five seed playing in Cleveland. The Hawkeyes have the green arrow, which means they are on the rise. Lunardi has two Big Ten teams as four seeds (Penn State and Michigan State) so the other option for a site would be Spokane, where he currently has Wisconsin playing.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Over at CBS, Jerry Palm has Iowa playing in Tampa as a five seed with Louisville as the four seed. Interestingly, both Palm and Lunardi have Iowa facing a team from the First Four games in Dayton.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
One more update coming next week before we actually get a bracket on March 15th.
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport
Publisher
@hawkeyereport
We are down to the final stretch of the college basketball season.
For some conferences, this will be the start of their league tournaments. For most conferences, this is the final week of the regular season with schools jockeying for seeding spots.
This week the Hawkeyes have two very important games that could have a huge impact on where they are seeded the following week at the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis and in the NCAA Tournament.
First, let’s tackle the picture in the Big Ten.
Things almost went a little haywire on Sunday with Indiana and Minnesota nearly pulling off upsets on the road. Illinois and Wisconsin ended up holding serve on their home court, so we head into the final week of the regular season with Iowa likely needing a pair of wins to earn the coveted double bye.
If form holds this week and the expected teams win (which means Iowa goes 1-1), Iowa would end up with the six seed, playing the winner of Rutgers/Nebraska on Thursday night. If Rutgers happens to beat Maryland this week, then it would be Purdue/Nebraska.
What if Iowa beats Purdue on Tuesday and then goes on the road and beats Illinois?
KenPom.com gives Iowa a 43% chance of winning at Illinois and if that happens, the Hawkeyes will jump to a three seed.
There are other options out there that could adjust Iowa’s seed, but right now it looks like it’s most likely they will either be the six seed or the three seed, depending on other results.
If you want to play around with all the different options, check out this site and you can see the various paths.
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
Now on to the NCAA Tournament where Iowa’s stock appears to be on the rise. The Hawkeyes went 1-1 last week with the loss at Michigan State and the win on Saturday over Penn State.
The loss to the Spartans looks a little bit better after they went on the road and beat Maryland on Saturday evening.
Here’s where Iowa starts the week according to the various analytics sites
NCAA Net: 29
Ken Pom: 21
Sagarin: 19
BPI: 24
Torvik: 24
As far as the resume, we focus in on the Quad system used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
Here’s a refresher on how that works. There are four quads and every game falls into one of those quads, depending on if it’s at home, road, or neutral.
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75. Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135. Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240. Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.
Here’s a look at the Iowa team sheet as we start the week. Thanks to WarrenNolan.com for the screen grab of the team sheet.
Here's a look at Iowa's team sheet.
A couple of notes. As mentioned in other updates because things can be close between quads, I like to look at the Quad 1 & 2 together. Measuring it that way, Iowa is 13-7, which is very good. The Hawkeyes also have a pair of Quad 1 and 2 games this week with Purdue at 35 and Illinois at 36 in the NET rankings.
If you keep track of the team sheet, you see that the loss to DePaul has fallen into the Quad 3 area. On the surface, that has become a bad loss. Not many would have thought that after their 12-1 start to the season, but here we are. Also, Rutgers and Illinois could jump into the Quad 1 category this week and that would add move those wins to Quad 1. Syracuse is getting dangerously close to falling into a Quad 2 win and Wisconsin is right at 30, so that home win over the Badgers might end up as a Quad 2 game.
The one thing to note as we start the week is Iowa’s NCAA Tournament seed is trending up heading into the final week of the regular season.
Over at bracketmatrix.com, which complies the work of all the bracket experts, has Iowa as a five seed. But, it’s worth noting that the average of a lot of teams is right there with Iowa in the low five seed category. I do think that a sweep this week could send Iowa up to a four seed heading into conference tournament week.
On Monday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Iowa as a five seed playing in Cleveland. The Hawkeyes have the green arrow, which means they are on the rise. Lunardi has two Big Ten teams as four seeds (Penn State and Michigan State) so the other option for a site would be Spokane, where he currently has Wisconsin playing.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Over at CBS, Jerry Palm has Iowa playing in Tampa as a five seed with Louisville as the four seed. Interestingly, both Palm and Lunardi have Iowa facing a team from the First Four games in Dayton.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
One more update coming next week before we actually get a bracket on March 15th.
