President Joe Biden looks set to have a challenging time trying to win re-election to the White House in November's election, including in the state where he was born.
Biden is heading into an election year amid continuing poor approval ratings and concerns that his presumed 2024 Republican challenger, Donald Trump, is beating the president in several key swing states—including Pennsylvania, where Biden was born in 1942.
While Biden is perhaps more commonly associated with Delaware, where he was a senator for 36 years and continues to regularly visit while in office, the state of Pennsylvania is still close to the president's heart; the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania opened in his honor in 2018.
Pennsylvania is also now considered a crucial state for Biden's presidential future. While the state which Biden flipped from Trump in 2020 by just 1.2 percent is considered a swing state, it had leaned Democrat for decades, only voting for a Republican candidate twice since 1988. If Biden were to lose Pennsylvania, it would go to show how disgruntled Democrat voters have become with the president since he entered office.
A recent Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll shows that Trump is narrowly beating Biden in Pennsylvania by just one point (40 to 39 percent). Another Quinnipiac University survey showed that Biden beating Trump 49 to 46 percent in Pennsylvania in a race the polling group says is still too close to call at this stage.
However, the Quinnipiac University poll also shows that Biden is suffering from low approval ratings (40 percent), a trend that has plagued Biden nationwide.
According to FiveThirtyEight's national live tracker, Biden's current average approval rating is just 38.6 percent, with the president not recording an approval rating above 50 percent since August 2021.
There have been numerous hot topic issues that experts believe may be playing a factor in why Biden is struggling to secure crucial support in his birth state heading into 2024.
These include ongoing concerns about the economy—with Biden's time in office seeing decades-high levels of inflation and record gas prices, although both have now fallen—as well as the criticism aimed at the president over his handling of the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Biden has been frequently criticized, including by progressive members of his own party, for failing to push for a ceasefire to end the war that broke out in the wake of Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7.
Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said the 81-year-old's age is also an issue with key demographics in the state heading into November's election.
"The age factor adds to his diminished status among younger voters and voters of color, as many of his policy accomplishments under Biden that are directed towards the interests of these cohorts are not credited due to a lack of connection exacerbated by generational differences," Borick told Newsweek.
"The situation in Israel and Gaza has certainly further strained the president's standing among younger, progressive voters and added to his challenges with key groups within his 2020 coalition."
"The immigration crisis is fairly salient even in Pennsylvania where the effects are less direct, and most voters see Trump as better equipped to handle the matter," Borick added. "This all adds up to a challenging path for Biden to repeat his 2020 success in the state he identifies so deeply with."
Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment.
However, Borick added that Biden's chances in Pennsylvania "remain solid" while noting that Trump also has "substantial liabilities heading" into the year. The former president is facing 91 charges across four criminal investigations and faces being a convicted felon by the time November's election comes around.
Trump was disqualified from running for president in Colorado and Maine for allegedly violating the U.S. Constitution's insurrection clause due to his actions around the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters. The Supreme Court is set to determine if he can remain on the ballots.
Trump has denied all wrongdoing in relation to all investigations and lawsuits filed against him and accused them of being politically motivated "witch hunts" that aim to prevent him from winning the 2024 election.
"Trump's negatives are high, and it seems hard to identify factors that may change that situation in the upcoming year," Borick said. "Biden has a better opportunity to recapture voters within the Democratic coalition than Trump has of winning over disaffected Republicans and independents that were not with him in 2020.
"Republicans have had failure after failure in Pennsylvania since 2016, and the most likely voters in the state have become solidly Democratic in their preferences. Thus, despite very significant challenges, Biden has a reasonable path to winning Pennsylvania this fall."
Cary Coglianese, an Edward B. Shils professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, said that Biden still has time on his hands to turn things around in his birth state, and noted the unreliability of polls at times.
In December 2011, Utah Senator Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who were campaigning for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination at the time, were beating incumbent president Barack Obama in a survey of key swing states like Pennsylvania. Obama went on to cruise to re-election against Romney, including winning Pennsylvania by more than five points.
There were also several polls that falsely suggested there would be a "red wave" at the 2022 midterms, which failed to materialize as the GOP only just managed to achieve a majority in the House and failed to re-take control of the Senate from the Democrats.
"The Biden team would obviously prefer to be polling way ahead of Trump, but that was never going to happen in a swing state anyway," Coglianese told Newsweek. "Biden's job approval rating numbers, in general, mean that Biden and the Democrats will have their work cut out for themselves in Pennsylvania. But that's something we always knew."
"Republicans, of course, also have their work cut out for themselves," Cognalise said.
"If Trump is their candidate, it seems he has done little if anything that would expand his appeal to suburban Pennsylvanian voters who will likely be crucial for a victory in the state.
"The abortion issue will likely cut in favor of turnout that supports Biden in ways that I don't think we see polling data adequately capturing," Coglianese added. "And Trump's anti-democratic rhetoric, focus on the past, and language of grievance will likely also motivate turnout in Biden's favor, even if voters are not so enthusiastic about Biden."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...S&cvid=48abf4d37f98453ba31ea347250f7803&ei=11
Biden is heading into an election year amid continuing poor approval ratings and concerns that his presumed 2024 Republican challenger, Donald Trump, is beating the president in several key swing states—including Pennsylvania, where Biden was born in 1942.
While Biden is perhaps more commonly associated with Delaware, where he was a senator for 36 years and continues to regularly visit while in office, the state of Pennsylvania is still close to the president's heart; the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement at the University of Pennsylvania opened in his honor in 2018.
Pennsylvania is also now considered a crucial state for Biden's presidential future. While the state which Biden flipped from Trump in 2020 by just 1.2 percent is considered a swing state, it had leaned Democrat for decades, only voting for a Republican candidate twice since 1988. If Biden were to lose Pennsylvania, it would go to show how disgruntled Democrat voters have become with the president since he entered office.
A recent Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll shows that Trump is narrowly beating Biden in Pennsylvania by just one point (40 to 39 percent). Another Quinnipiac University survey showed that Biden beating Trump 49 to 46 percent in Pennsylvania in a race the polling group says is still too close to call at this stage.
However, the Quinnipiac University poll also shows that Biden is suffering from low approval ratings (40 percent), a trend that has plagued Biden nationwide.
According to FiveThirtyEight's national live tracker, Biden's current average approval rating is just 38.6 percent, with the president not recording an approval rating above 50 percent since August 2021.
There have been numerous hot topic issues that experts believe may be playing a factor in why Biden is struggling to secure crucial support in his birth state heading into 2024.
These include ongoing concerns about the economy—with Biden's time in office seeing decades-high levels of inflation and record gas prices, although both have now fallen—as well as the criticism aimed at the president over his handling of the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Biden has been frequently criticized, including by progressive members of his own party, for failing to push for a ceasefire to end the war that broke out in the wake of Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7.
Christopher Borick, a professor of political science and director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said the 81-year-old's age is also an issue with key demographics in the state heading into November's election.
"The age factor adds to his diminished status among younger voters and voters of color, as many of his policy accomplishments under Biden that are directed towards the interests of these cohorts are not credited due to a lack of connection exacerbated by generational differences," Borick told Newsweek.
"The situation in Israel and Gaza has certainly further strained the president's standing among younger, progressive voters and added to his challenges with key groups within his 2020 coalition."
"The immigration crisis is fairly salient even in Pennsylvania where the effects are less direct, and most voters see Trump as better equipped to handle the matter," Borick added. "This all adds up to a challenging path for Biden to repeat his 2020 success in the state he identifies so deeply with."
Newsweek reached out to the White House via email for comment.
However, Borick added that Biden's chances in Pennsylvania "remain solid" while noting that Trump also has "substantial liabilities heading" into the year. The former president is facing 91 charges across four criminal investigations and faces being a convicted felon by the time November's election comes around.
Trump was disqualified from running for president in Colorado and Maine for allegedly violating the U.S. Constitution's insurrection clause due to his actions around the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters. The Supreme Court is set to determine if he can remain on the ballots.
Trump has denied all wrongdoing in relation to all investigations and lawsuits filed against him and accused them of being politically motivated "witch hunts" that aim to prevent him from winning the 2024 election.
"Trump's negatives are high, and it seems hard to identify factors that may change that situation in the upcoming year," Borick said. "Biden has a better opportunity to recapture voters within the Democratic coalition than Trump has of winning over disaffected Republicans and independents that were not with him in 2020.
"Republicans have had failure after failure in Pennsylvania since 2016, and the most likely voters in the state have become solidly Democratic in their preferences. Thus, despite very significant challenges, Biden has a reasonable path to winning Pennsylvania this fall."
Cary Coglianese, an Edward B. Shils professor of law at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, said that Biden still has time on his hands to turn things around in his birth state, and noted the unreliability of polls at times.
In December 2011, Utah Senator Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who were campaigning for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination at the time, were beating incumbent president Barack Obama in a survey of key swing states like Pennsylvania. Obama went on to cruise to re-election against Romney, including winning Pennsylvania by more than five points.
There were also several polls that falsely suggested there would be a "red wave" at the 2022 midterms, which failed to materialize as the GOP only just managed to achieve a majority in the House and failed to re-take control of the Senate from the Democrats.
"The Biden team would obviously prefer to be polling way ahead of Trump, but that was never going to happen in a swing state anyway," Coglianese told Newsweek. "Biden's job approval rating numbers, in general, mean that Biden and the Democrats will have their work cut out for themselves in Pennsylvania. But that's something we always knew."
"Republicans, of course, also have their work cut out for themselves," Cognalise said.
"If Trump is their candidate, it seems he has done little if anything that would expand his appeal to suburban Pennsylvanian voters who will likely be crucial for a victory in the state.
"The abortion issue will likely cut in favor of turnout that supports Biden in ways that I don't think we see polling data adequately capturing," Coglianese added. "And Trump's anti-democratic rhetoric, focus on the past, and language of grievance will likely also motivate turnout in Biden's favor, even if voters are not so enthusiastic about Biden."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...S&cvid=48abf4d37f98453ba31ea347250f7803&ei=11
