Posted this in the Lounge, just sharing here for FWIW.
Yeah, Keegan will definitely have to improve but I think he is likely to be gone after this season for these reasons:
1. Age REALLY matters in the NBA draft, and he will be on the older side already after this season (as a poster mentioned)
2. He will be REALLY good this season, barring injury, and he is a 2 way player not just a role player. He may lack the ability to create 1 vs 1 his first few years, but he can do almost everything else
3. He is a very efficient player who makes great decisions and has A+ intangibles and very solid athleticism for the next level.
The only thing that gives me pause is him wanting to play with his brother, but I think him leaving also expands his brothers playing time and chances at the NBA and so I think him wanting to avoid getting too old will trump that concern / opportunity and that he will go.
A comparison to a player in this year's draft would be Trey Murhpy from Virginia. His
profile:
| ATTRIBUTE | TREY MURPHY | KEEGAN MURRAY |
| School | Virginia | Iowa |
| Year | Junior ('20-21) | Sophmore ('21-22) |
| Drafted | 17th | 10-30 (?) |
| Age at Draft | 21 years, 1 month | 21 years, 11 months |
| Height (with shoes) | 6'9.25" | 6'9" (?) |
| Weight | 206 | 215 (?) |
| Wingspan | 7'0" | 7'0" (?) (was 6'11" at DME at 6'8") |
| Standing Reach | 8'9.5" | 8'8.0" (?) (was 8'7" at DME at 6'8") |
| Max Vertical | 38" (JW 42") | 38-40" (?) (was 36" at DME) |
| 3/4 Court Sprint | 3.14 sec (JW 3.04) | 3.08 (?) |
| Lane Agility | 11.65 sec (JW 10.70) | 10.4 at DME (?) - 10.7 (?) |
| Shuttle Run | 3.32 sec (JW 3.18) | 3.52 at DME - 3.30 (?) |
| Points per 100 possessions | 25.1 | ?? (22.6 last year) |
| Rebounds per 100 possessions | 7.6 | ?? (11.3 last year) |
| Assists per 100 possessions | 2.7 | ?? (1.2 last year) |
| Blocks per per 100 possessions | 1.0 | ?? (3.9 last year) |
| Steals per 100 possessions | 1.8 | ?? (1.9 last year) |
| Turnovers per 100 possessions | 1.7 | ?? (2.0 last year) |
| FT % | 92.7% | ?? (75.5% last year) (86.2% at DME) |
| 3 PT % | 43.3% (36.8% as Soph) | ?? (29.6% last year) (38.1% at DME) |
| 2 PT % | 62.0% (57.1% as Soph) | ?? (60.7% last year) (62.2% at DME) |
| Effective Shooting % | 63.9% (55.8% as Soph | ?? (55.4%) |
| PER (Player Efficiency Rating - higher is better) | 20.9 | 23.4 |
| Offensive Rating (high is good, 100 is ave) | 129.8 | 122.1 |
| Defensive Rating (low is good, 100 is ave) | 102.0 | 95.5 |
As you can see, while Trey is an elite shooter, Keegan scores inside at a similar efficiency and is only lacking from the 3 point line and FT line. He also can get better in the assist category so passing is another opportunity to focus on.
In all other categories - athleticism, rebounding, blocks, steals and so forth, he is already a stronger producer if you project his efficiency and growth into more minutes next season. He's already bigger and I believe will test to be faster than Trey Murphy, in addition to having better defensive numbers.
I think Keegan will average 15-18 ppg this season and around 7.5 rebounds, while pushing his 3 point percentage to around 34% and his FT percentage over 80%.
The things he should work on imo:
- Passing ability - that 1.2 assists per 100 possessions isn't great
- 3 Point shooting - based on DME I'd say he's already a 33% shooter, ideally would get to 36% or better
- Creating off the dribble - can he beat a set defender off the bounce at the NBA level? Not sure.
- Interior moves from a set position (post or offensive rebound) - not a wide arsenal shown last year. Strength will help.
I do believe he will be projected into the first round, and perhaps the lottery, and that he will go early because of his projected age at the time of the draft will be almost 22 years old (23 the following year if he waits). Don't underestimate the willingness of NBA teams to draft younger players in the 1st round 1-2 years before they are actually ready for serious NBA minutes. The stats of many of the first round players are actually quite underwhelming for many of them - it's about where they project to be.
I couldn't be higher about what Keegan brings to the table and what he'll be able to do next year without Garza demanding touches and without Wieskamp or Nunge. He could average 8 ppg just on offensive rebounds and transition points alone, so as long as he's healthy and gets 30 mpg+ he's going to be fantastic imo.
