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Kenpom Says We Dance

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I’ve said before, I love this team and think it will finish top 5 in the Big. Harding is key, but Dix, Freeman and Sandfort are all Big caliber players. And this may be the most athletic team Fran has had overall. Funny how national publications have us rated higher than fan expectations.
 
I’ve said before, I love this team and think it will finish top 5 in the Big. Harding is key, but Dix, Freeman and Sandfort are all Big caliber players. And this may be the most athletic team Fran has had overall. Funny how national publications have us rated higher than fan expectations.
Top 5? Expecting that shows a real lack of respect for talent around the league but ... it could happen.

National publications have Iowa anywhere from 6th to 14th. This seeming cluelessness might instead be an indication of collective wisdom. There very well might be 3 games separating the 3d place team from the 16th this year.

I suspect that schedules will be an enormous factor this season and that who travels where and when will matter a lot when it's all decided. Football teams making the 2 time zone trip are 1-9 this season so far. It matters.
 
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I like our " concept" of a team...ie. .on paper.
But whenever I look at newly constructed rosters of the rest of the league it dawns on me that as yogi berra once uttered
" nobody knows nuthin"
when projecting college BB results.

When in doubt ...go with the usual suspects..but in pencil.
PU,IU,ILL,MSU, OSU UCLA....maybe RU and Iowa.
 
If Iowa stays healthy and really has a top 75ish defense, which seems very possible with the personnel, they will surprise the doubters.
 
I’ve said before, I love this team and think it will finish top 5 in the Big. Harding is key, but Dix, Freeman and Sandfort are all Big caliber players. And this may be the most athletic team Fran has had overall. Funny how national publications have us rated higher than fan expectations.
There are 18 teams in the league. If Iowa has three all conference players, they should win the league.
 
There are 18 teams in the league. If Iowa has three all conference players, they should win the league.
I think I started that by saying that Iowa has 3 top-20 caliber players in the B1G. I then clarified that Payton Sandfort, Freeman, and Dix were all 3 possible all-B1G players. but it is highly unlikely that all 3 will be named to the team. Iowa is a very balanced team this year, and if healthy, should compete for the top third of the league. They might even play team defense and rebound.
 
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To clarify, I’m referring to 1st, 2nd or 3rd team.
Sandfort is a shoe in for an ABT team, most likely 1st. Dix and Freeman? Not buying it.

Again... to say something like that shows a lot of disrespect to the talent throughout the rest of the league. Combes has it about right, if Iowa really has 3 ABT players, they will be a 4 seed or better.
 
To clarify, I’m referring to 1st, 2nd or 3rd team.
Given there are 18 teams, I would be shocked if all 3 were honored in the top 15 players at the end of the year. I have a high opinion of Payton, Freeman and DIx, but I think Iowa will be a better team if the scoring is distributed, even to the other players getting major minutes. I expect the combination of guys playing the 4 and back up at 5 and 3 to average in double figures both in points and boards. I also hope that the two PGs together average in double figures in points and assists. Iowa is going to be a tough out if that happens.
 
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Sandfort is a shoe in for an ABT team, most likely 1st. Dix and Freeman? Not buying it.

Again... to say something like that shows a lot of disrespect to the talent throughout the rest of the league. Combes has it about right, if Iowa really has 3 ABT players, they will be a 4 seed or better.
I guess we will see. I think you give too much respect to a league where the talent hasn’t done squat in the NCAA tournament in over 20 years. And yeah, I would expect them to be a 4 or 5 seed with 3 All Big players.

Sandfort is a lock and Freeman was freshman of the year, while Dix put up some impressive stats last year. It’s really not much of a stretch. The real trick is going to be what we get out of the point guard and team defense.
 
I guess we will see. I think you give too much respect to a league where the talent hasn’t done squat in the NCAA tournament in over 20 years. And yeah, I would expect them to be a 4 or 5 seed with 3 All Big players.

Sandfort is a lock and Freeman was freshman of the year, while Dix put up some impressive stats last year. It’s really not much of a stretch. The real trick is going to be what we get out of the point guard and team defense.
Looks like I’m not the only one “disrespecting” the talent in the Big:

Preseason AP Top 25 Poll (10/14)
1. Kansas (30)
2. Alabama (14)
3. Connecticut (11)
4. Houston (4)
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga (1)
7. Duke
8. Baylor
9. North Carolina
10. Arizona
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Texas A&M
14. Purdue
15. Creighton
16. Arkansas
17. Indiana
18. Marquette
19. Texas
20. Cincinnati
21. Florida
22. UCLA
23. Kentucky
24. Mississippi
25. Rutgers
 
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Looks like I’m not the only one “disrespecting” the talent in the Big:

Preseason AP Top 25 Poll (10/14)
1. Kansas (30)
2. Alabama (14)
3. Connecticut (11)
4. Houston (4)
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga (1)
7. Duke
8. Baylor
9. North Carolina
10. Arizona
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Texas A&M
14. Purdue
15. Creighton
16. Arkansas
17. Indiana
18. Marquette
19. Texas
20. Cincinnati
21. Florida
22. UCLA
23. Kentucky
24. Mississippi
25. Rutgers
Yep, if you keep failing in the post season, you show that the conference isn't what it once was.
 
Looks like I’m not the only one “disrespecting” the talent in the Big:

Preseason AP Top 25 Poll (10/14)
1. Kansas (30)
2. Alabama (14)
3. Connecticut (11)
4. Houston (4)
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga (1)
7. Duke
8. Baylor
9. North Carolina
10. Arizona
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Texas A&M
14. Purdue
15. Creighton
16. Arkansas
17. Indiana
18. Marquette
19. Texas
20. Cincinnati
21. Florida
22. UCLA
23. Kentucky
24. Mississippi
25. Rutgers
You do understand that Iowa received zero votes, right? Odd argument.

B1G teams have appeared in more final fours (17) since 2000 than any other conference not named the ACC (19): https://collegesportswire.usatoday....-big-east-since-2000-mens-college-basketball/

Two odd arguments. You're on a roll.
 
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You do understand that Iowa received zero votes, right? Odd argument.

B1G teams have appeared in more final fours (17) since 2000 than any other conference not named the ACC (19): https://collegesportswire.usatoday....-big-east-since-2000-mens-college-basketball/

Two odd arguments. You're on a roll.
The Big 10 is probably the 5th ranked basketball conference.

SEC ACC Big 12 and Big East have all out performed the Big 10 in March over the last handful of years.
 
The Big 10 is probably the 5th ranked basketball conference.

SEC ACC Big 12 and Big East have all out performed the Big 10 in March over the last handful of years.

"Probably the 5th ranked basketball conference". Based on what? Solely performance in the NCAA tourney? Seems silly.

Last year, for example, B1G teams were (10-6) 3d in winning % behind the Big East and ACC, and had a team in the finals.

In '23 C-USA teams far and away outperformed every other conference as far as winning percentage (.800). Would you rank C-USA above the ACC and Big East?

If you look at analytics, Torvik e.g., says B1G was second last year, second in '23, second in '22, and first in '21. Kenpom likely identical or close. Same for Evan Miya...

I think you really don't know what you're talking about.
 
"Probably the 5th ranked basketball conference". Based on what? Solely performance in the NCAA tourney? Seems silly.

Last year, for example, B1G teams were (10-6) 3d in winning % behind the Big East and ACC, and had a team in the finals.

In '23 C-USA teams far and away outperformed every other conference as far as winning percentage (.800). Would you rank C-USA above the ACC and Big East?

If you look at analytics, Torvik e.g., says B1G was second last year, second in '23, second in '22, and first in '21. Kenpom likely identical or close. Same for Evan Miya...

I think you really don't know what you're talking about.
Don't waste your breath.. he's an Iowa State fan
 
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Ranking conferences depends on time frame and whether you consider only the top few teams from a conference or top to bottom. The Big East has been great if you only consider the top few teams. UConn and Villanova won multiple championships since any B1G team won it all. There is a big drop off after the first few teams. The ACC has actually been very weak top to bottom recently, but was much stronger a few years back. The Big 12 or whatever it is called nowadays has been really strong overall for the past few years. SEC has gotten stronger (beyond KY) over the past few years, becoming more than an FB conference, with big $$$ helping. The B1G has been strong overall during most regular seasons, but mostly has underachieved expectations in the dance. Pudon't is the only team that has come close to winning it all in the past couple of decades. The B1G added some of the better Pac12 schools, which probably adds to the depth of quality teams. Not sure how you sort that out and decide on a ranking, but the B1G needs to get more teams into the Final 4 or it won't get the respect it once had.
 
"Probably the 5th ranked basketball conference". Based on what? Solely performance in the NCAA tourney? Seems silly.

Last year, for example, B1G teams were (10-6) 3d in winning % behind the Big East and ACC, and had a team in the finals.

In '23 C-USA teams far and away outperformed every other conference as far as winning percentage (.800). Would you rank C-USA above the ACC and Big East?

If you look at analytics, Torvik e.g., says B1G was second last year, second in '23, second in '22, and first in '21. Kenpom likely identical or close. Same for Evan Miya...

I think you really don't know what you're talking about.

The Big 10 hasn't won a basketball title in almost 25 years. This isn't the 90's anymore: The Big 12 and ACC have separated themselves as the top two conferences and UConn has carried the weight for the Big East. At minimum those 3 conferences are ahead in recent history.
 
Looks like I’m not the only one “disrespecting” the talent in the Big:

Preseason AP Top 25 Poll (10/14)
1. Kansas (30)
2. Alabama (14)
3. Connecticut (11)
4. Houston (4)
5. Iowa State
6. Gonzaga (1)
7. Duke
8. Baylor
9. North Carolina
10. Arizona
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee
13. Texas A&M
14. Purdue
15. Creighton
16. Arkansas
17. Indiana
18. Marquette
19. Texas
20. Cincinnati
21. Florida
22. UCLA
23. Kentucky
24. Mississippi
25. Rutgers
Don’t really care about the past but it’s a pretty bad league based on this. When was the last time (30-40 years ago?) our highest ranked team in the preseason was 14? And only 4 teams out of 18 in the top 25? Honestly if you look at talent overall I see no reason we can’t compete for the top 4.
 
Don’t really care about the past but it’s a pretty bad league based on this. When was the last time (30-40 years ago?) our highest ranked team in the preseason was 14? And only 4 teams out of 18 in the top 25? Honestly if you look at talent overall I see no reason we can’t compete for the top 4.
This is a pre-season ranking. I'm content to play some games and see how it shakes out. I would eager a lot that the B1G has a team in the top ten by the end of the year.
 
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The Big 10 hasn't won a basketball title in almost 25 years. This isn't the 90's anymore: The Big 12 and ACC have separated themselves as the top two conferences and UConn has carried the weight for the Big East. At minimum those 3 conferences are ahead in recent history.
Again, over the last 25 years, the ACC and B1G has put more teams in the final four than any other conference. Which Big 12 team was in the final four last year? That's right -- none. Which Big 12 team was in the elite eight? That's right -- NONE. The B1G had 2, and Purdue played in the final.

Again, I don't think you know what you're talking about.
 
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What argument do you think I'm trying to make?
You said:
"I think you give too much respect to a league where the talent hasn’t done squat in the NCAA tournament in over 20 years."

The B1G has put more teams in the final four over the last 20 years than any other conference except the ACC. If that is what you consider "not doing squat", you have a tenuous grasp on reality.

You said: "And yeah, I would expect them to be a 4 or 5 seed with 3 All Big players. Sandfort is a lock and Freeman was freshman of the year, while Dix put up some impressive stats last year. It’s really not much of a stretch."

Iowa received ZERO top 25 votes. Purdue, Indiana, UCLA, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin and Maryland all did.

This indicates that the voters think that Iowa is (at best) about the 11th best team in the B1G (maybe worse. We don't know).

Contrary to your opinion, it's a HUGE stretch to think that an 11th place (at best) team will have 3 all big ten players on it. It's frankly, stupid. The voters clearly don't agree with your assessment of Iowa's talent in comparison to the rest of the league. I suspect that the voters know a lot more than you do about what the other B1G teams have in terms of talent. I don't think you could name 2 players on half the teams in the league (if that).

But who knows...you may be right. If you are, Fran will be a unanimous national coach of the year.
 
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Again, over the last 25 years, the ACC and B1G has put more teams in the final four than any other conference. Which Big 12 team was in the final four last year? That's right -- none. Which Big 12 team was in the elite eight? That's right -- NONE. The B1G had 2, and Purdue played in the final.

Again, I don't think you know what you're talking about.
You’re using a single season in attempt to argue 10-20 years worth of results? Yikes. Denial is a tough pill to swallow for some.
 
You’re using a single season in attempt to argue 10-20 years worth of results? Yikes. Denial is a tough pill to swallow for some.
You've already been proven wrong about the last 20 years, dummy. Talk about denial....

You said "last handful of years" above. Does last year count in a handful? Lol

All you do is make very vague general statements without offering any factual support. That's because you don't know what you're talking about.
 
You said:
"I think you give too much respect to a league where the talent hasn’t done squat in the NCAA tournament in over 20 years."

The B1G has put more teams in the final four over the last 20 years than any other conference except the ACC. If that is what you consider "not doing squat", you have a tenuous grasp on reality.

You said: "And yeah, I would expect them to be a 4 or 5 seed with 3 All Big players. Sandfort is a lock and Freeman was freshman of the year, while Dix put up some impressive stats last year. It’s really not much of a stretch."

Iowa received ZERO top 25 votes. Purdue, Indiana, UCLA, Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan, Oregon, Wisconsin and Maryland all did.

This indicates that the voters think that Iowa is (at best) about the 11th best team in the B1G (maybe worse. We don't know).

Contrary to your opinion, it's a HUGE stretch to think that an 11th place (at best) team will have 3 all big ten players on it. It's frankly, stupid. The voters clearly don't agree with your assessment of Iowa's talent in comparison to the rest of the league. I suspect that the voters know a lot more than you do about what the other B1G teams have in terms of talent. I don't think you could name 2 players on half the teams in the league (if that).

But who knows...you may be right. If you are, Fran will be a unanimous national coach of the year.
I never claimed that others agreed with my assessment that we have 3 All Big caliber players. Which, btw, is a little different than saying we will actually have 3 All Big players. I’m not predicting 3 will make the list. But they will definitely be under consideration.

I probably overestimated our seeding given how bad the Big is.

I used the rankings to illustrate my prediction of 3 All Big players was not “disrespectful “ to the rest of the talent in the Big, as another poster claimed, since most people don’t think much of the Big either.

MY opinion is that Iowa will finish in the top 5 of the Big. I’m not saying others agree with that opinion. But the fact that others believe the Big is crap makes my prediction more credible. Finishing top 5 in the Big won’t be that difficult of an accomplishment.
 
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