KenPom

[CP84]

Kind of a joke of a ratings system.

ISU still at #13 with 8 losses:
Swept by #41 TCU
Swept by #33 Baylor
#86 Arizona on a neutral court
#29 Iowa
#30 KSU at Hilton
#14 Kansas

Best wins:
#9 Texas Tech
#14 Kansas
#30 KSU

Iowa's losses:
Swept by #4 MSU
#10 Purdue
#11 Wisconsin
#16 Maryland
#48 Minnesota

Best wins:
#7 Michigan
#13 ISU
#36 OSU

The only explanation is that Iowa is being punished because a few of the early season games were against opponents in the 300 range.

Massey appears to be a better system that passes the eye test.

Prior to today's loss to TCU, Iowa is #20 and ISU is #23. ISU is not a top 15 team at all. In the Big 10, they're on the bubble.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I certainly don't agree with all of the kenpom rankings. But I am solidly for punishing teams for playing opponents that are 300+, if that is part of the equation.

 

[CP84]

I certainly don't agree with all of the kenpom rankings. But I am solidly for punishing teams for playing opponents that are 300+, if that is part of the equation.

SOS should be part of the equation and Massey features it. Iowa currently has 30th toughest schedule and will likely improve further after Wisconsin and OSU.

The issue is the weight. A blinded comparison of resumes would almost unanimously choose Iowa.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

I would guess two factors are dragging Iowa down some on Kenpom. Defensive efficiency 112 and NCOS 326.

Edit make 3 things. Iowa St also blew out their non con foes at a better rate than Iowa and only have 1 DD loss while Iowa has 3. All these factors contribute to ISU’s higher rating.

 

[L. Wade Childress]

LOL

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Kind of a joke of a ratings system.

ISU still at #13 with 8 losses:
Swept by #41 TCU
Swept by #33 Baylor
#86 Arizona on a neutral court
#29 Iowa
#30 KSU at Hilton
#14 Kansas

Best wins:
#9 Texas Tech
#14 Kansas
#30 KSU

Iowa's losses:
Swept by #4 MSU
#10 Purdue
#11 Wisconsin
#16 Maryland
#48 Minnesota

Best wins:
#7 Michigan
#13 ISU
#36 OSU

The only explanation is that Iowa is being punished because a few of the early season games were against opponents in the 300 range.

Massey appears to be a better system that passes the eye test.

Prior to today's loss to TCU, Iowa is #20 and ISU is #23. ISU is not a top 15 team at all. In the Big 10, they're on the bubble.

Wait, I just read this again. ISU would be on the bubble of what exactly? Please don’t say the tourney because that’s a really bad answer. Have you seen the teams on the bubble this year?

 

[CP84]

Wait, I just read this again. ISU would be on the bubble of what exactly? Please don’t say the tourney because that’s a really bad answer. Have you seen the teams on the bubble this year?

Minnesota, Ohio State and Nebraska are considered bubble teams within the conference. Minnesota right now is an 11, OSU is a 10 and Nebraska is out.

Not hard to fathom ISU being in the Minnesota tier in this conference. The Kansas team they beat is 12-6 without Azubuike. Not exactly world beaters.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Minnesota, Ohio State and Nebraska are considered bubble teams within the conference. Minnesota right now is an 11, OSU is a 10 and Nebraska is out.

Not hard to fathom ISU being in the Minnesota tier in this conference. The Kansas team they beat is 12-6 without Azubuike. Not exactly world beaters.

Iowa has beaten Michigan and who else again. It’s seriously a bad take to think ISU couldn’t beat some of the same teams Iowa has beaten this year. Your bias is showing.

 

[33hawkfan]

This year’s Iowa team has been the opposite of some of the Gesell era teams. Iowa is ranked “low” for their record because they have a lot close wins and some big losses. The Gesell era teams lost a lot of close games while having some big wins thus their efficiency numbers looked better than their record. The Marble play in game team was a top 25 kenpom team.

 

[Birky]

I would guess two factors are dragging Iowa down some on Kenpom. Defensive efficiency 112 and NCOS 326.

Edit make 3 things. Iowa St also blew out their non con foes at a better rate than Iowa and only have 1 DD loss while Iowa has 3. All these factors contribute to ISU’s higher rating.

1 double digit loss to...

 

[CP84]

Iowa has beaten Michigan and who else again. It’s seriously a bad take to think ISU couldn’t beat some of the same teams Iowa has beaten this year. Your bias is showing.

Could they beat them? Perhaps, but they've also shown no ability to defend good post players. The Big 12 has a bunch of guard dominated lineups, especially with Clark, Azubuike and Konante being out.

We've all seen ISU get dominated by Gillespie (d3 transfer) and Noi.

Teams like Indiana, Minnesota and OSU would be a terrible matchup for them.

Could you imagine Jacobson trying to guard Juwan Morgan, Jordan Murphy, Wesson, Ward, Fernando, etc., weekly? Look what Cook did to them. He said afterwards that no Cyclone can guard him. He was right.

I have little doubt ISU would struggle in this conference.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Could they beat them? Perhaps, but they've also shown no ability to defend good post players. The Big 12 has a bunch of guard dominated lineups, especially with Clark, Azubuike and Konante being out.

We've all seen ISU get dominated by Gillespie (d3 transfer) and Noi.

Teams like Indiana, Minnesota and OSU would be a terrible matchup for them.

Could you imagine Jacobson trying to guard Juwan Morgan, Jordan Murphy, Wesson, Ward, Fernando, etc., weekly? Look what Cook did to them. He said afterwards that no Cyclone can guard him. He was right.

I have little doubt ISU would struggle in this conference.

Ok

 

[CP84]

Ok

The no answer, answer.

Even clown fans realize they have no post presence. No need to be an apologist.

As an Iowa fan, I'd much rather face them than Minnesota or OSU.

 

[HoustonREDHawk]

ISU is a good offensive team, but I have not been impressed at all by their defense. They have skilled players and play a lot of one on one offense. As a result, they are a very dangerous team to play, but I think they will have a very hard time sustaining a run in the dance.

 

[spoke8]

I would guess two factors are dragging Iowa down some on Kenpom. Defensive efficiency 112 and NCOS 326.

Edit make 3 things. Iowa St also blew out their non con foes at a better rate than Iowa and only have 1 DD loss while Iowa has 3. All these factors contribute to ISU’s higher rating.

Kenpom “luck factor” is helping ISU as they are considered about the unluckiest team in the country(316th). Iowa, on the otherhand, is among the luckiest(35th).
Both good teams. Not to discredit Iowa and JBos heroics... but Iowa has had the lucky horseshoe as of late.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

Kenpom “luck factor” is helping ISU as they are considered about the unluckiest team in the country(316th). Iowa, on the otherhand, is among the luckiest(35th).
Both good teams. Not to discredit Iowa and JBos heroics... but Iowa has had the lucky horseshoe as of late.

Yes, Iowa is outpacing their expected outcome by quite a bit while the opposite is true for ISU. It’s quite the deviation from the norm for Iowa, however, as they are usually 200+ in that category. There was one year when they were in the top 100 (2006). Our luck did run out that year though.

 

[BBHawk]

Iowa should be ranked. ISU has been ranked too high, but probably deserve to be ranked. Iowa has as good if not better wins at home, better and fewer losses, and womn handily head-to-head. That IA State was ranked above Iowa just seems wrong.

 

[HawkLand]

Maybe these rankings should emphasize winning and losing a bit more and calculating how lucky a team is and deciding how much a 19 point win vs. a 12 point win a bit less. Just a thought.

 

[CP84]

Maybe these rankings should emphasize winning and losing a bit more and calculating how lucky a team is and deciding how much a 19 point win vs. a 12 point win a bit less. Just a thought.

Bingo.

How do they determine if a Bohannon game winning 3 is luck or skill? It's rhetorical because they can't.

Why should a win over Bryant without Garza be more impactful than a blowout over Michigan .

Unfortunately these are the fundamental flaws of these systems.

 

[Run&Blade]

Iowa and Iowa State will be between a 4 and 6 seed IMO.

Their matchup in second round will determine if they are Sweet 16 material.

 

[CP84]

Iowa and Iowa State will be between a 4 and 6 seed IMO.

Their matchup in second round will determine if they are Sweet 16 material.

ISU has some work to do to get to a 6.

Iowa is probably a 5 now not a 4.

 

[BirdistheWord]

As an Iowa fan, it is paramount that we do not slip below a 6 seed. 7-9 is the kiss of death if not just a bullet to the head.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Kind of a joke of a ratings system.

ISU still at #13 with 8 losses:
Swept by #41 TCU
Swept by #33 Baylor
#86 Arizona on a neutral court
#29 Iowa
#30 KSU at Hilton
#14 Kansas

Best wins:
#9 Texas Tech
#14 Kansas
#30 KSU

Iowa's losses:
Swept by #4 MSU
#10 Purdue
#11 Wisconsin
#16 Maryland
#48 Minnesota

Best wins:
#7 Michigan
#13 ISU
#36 OSU

The only explanation is that Iowa is being punished because a few of the early season games were against opponents in the 300 range.

Massey appears to be a better system that passes the eye test.

Prior to today's loss to TCU, Iowa is #20 and ISU is #23. ISU is not a top 15 team at all. In the Big 10, they're on the bubble.

There's no magic to the ratings. It's the margin in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Iowa hurt itself with a 1-point win over Pitt and a 7-point win over a terrible Bryant team. Those are seen as poor performances (what they were). Iowa also has some blowout losses to MSU (twice) and Purdue.

 

[mthawkeyes]

Kenpom doesn't give any credence to wins and losses. It is a measure of each team's offensive and defensive efficiency versus their opponents' opponents offensive and defensive efficiency. A team isn't rewarded for closing out close games or failing to do so. That makes it an incomplete system for ranking a team's accomplishments over the course of a season when the object is to win each game. But it is very predictive of future outcomes. Over the last few years I've relied on it to pick 8/9, 7/10, and 6/11 games. The more highly ranked team in Kenpom wins far more often than the better seed. That's because a team's "luck" or lack thereof over the course of a season doesn't carry over into the small sample size of a single game.

 

[CP84]

Kenpom doesn't give any credence to wins and losses. It is a measure of each team's offensive and defensive efficiency versus their opponents' opponents offensive and defensive efficiency. A team isn't rewarded for closing out close games or failing to do so. That makes it an incomplete system for ranking a team's accomplishments over the course of a season when the object is to win each game. But it is very predictive of future outcomes. Over the last few years I've relied on it to pick 8/9, 7/10, and 6/11 games. The more highly ranked team in Kenpom wins far more often than the better seed. That's because a team's "luck" or lack thereof over the course of a season doesn't carry over into the small sample size of a single game.

I've used KenPom for the entire bracket the last two years and neither time finished in the top half of the office pool.

I've come to realize that Massey is a much more effective model.