Keys for Iowa in 2017
Tom Kakert | Publisher
James Butler and the Iowa run game has a number they need to hit in 2017.
As we head into the first game week for the Iowa football team, we take a look at five keys to the 2017 season and some numbers they need to hit in the run game and stopping the run.
THE GAME MANAGER
QB doesn’t need to be a difference maker, but it’s hard to win when you shoot yourself in the foot.
While some quarterbacks don’t embrace the term “game manager”, that’s really what Iowa needs more than anything else this season from whoever is named the starting quarterback. I’m on the record believing that on Monday that Kirk Ferentz will Nathan Stanley as the starter, but regardless of who leads the offense, they won’t last long if they make costly mistakes.
It’s hard to come up with any real expectations for the Iowa quarterback this season simply because so much is unknown. As of this writing, we don’t know exactly who the quarterback will be and there are so many unknowns about who will be catching passes this fall.
If I had to come up with a solid comparison from a past Iowa quarterback for this season and what the Hawkeyes should hope for from the position it’s probably Nathan Chandler. Back in 2003, Chandler had the unenviable task of following the record setting season from Brad Banks. There’s no way that Chandler could do what Banks did simply because they were different types of signal callers.
Iowa won 10 games in 2003, including an Outback Bowl in over Florida. Chandler completed 53% of his passes for 2,040 yards. He connected on 18 touchdown throws and had 10 interceptions. That second number is probably a little higher than the Iowa coaches would want, but it gives you a ball park of the type of stats that would be solid for either Stanley or Wiegers in 2017. They certainly want to avoid the Stanzi 2009 number of 15 interceptions. That team could survive it because they were able to play great defense. This year’s defense could be pretty good, but my sense is they won’t be at the 2009 level.
ESTABLISH THE RUN GAME
The past two years have shown that you can have what amounts to a committee or a dynamic duo and get the job done on the ground.
Two years ago, the Hawkeyes have their four horsemen in Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels, Akrum Wadley, and Derrick Mitchell. That group averaged 182 yards per game on the ground. No one cracked the 1,000 yard mark individually, but every week someone picked up the ball and ran it effectively.
Last year, it was Wadley and Daniels doing all the damage as the Hawkeyes averaged 171 yards per game on the ground. With only two backs to feed most of the season, both Wadley and Daniels cracked the 1,000 yard mark for the year.
Of course, it all starts up front and last year, Iowa won the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the best offensive line in the country. Four of the five starters are back from that unit and all five of the expected started played significant snaps in 2016. That will give Wadley and graduate transfer James Butler, who joined the Hawkeyes this summer from Nevada, a chance to duplicate last year’s numbers.
Butler rushed for over 3,000 yards in his three years with Nevada and while it wasn’t against Big Ten competition, he’s certainly capable of being an impact player this year. I’m not ready to say he will put up Daniels type numbers, but he could be his equal. Wadley is up over the magical 190 pound mark and appears to be poised for a strong senior season.
While we don’t know what the distribution of carries will look like in 2017, it’s fair to say that Wadley and Butler will get the bulk of the work. Ideally, Iowa would like to get somewhere at or near the 171 yards per game and the higher that total goes, the better the chances the Hawkeyes will have for a strong season.
STOP THE RUN
There are two mantras for Iowa football under Kirk Ferentz. The first is to run the ball and the second is to stop the other team from running the ball.
When Iowa does stop the run, good things are going to happen, as in a good record is likely to happen. When they don’t, it’s seven wins at best and perhaps worse than that.
What the magic number that Iowa would like to get to against the run? As mentioned earlier, when the defense keeps it low, the number of wins generally goes up. Two years ago, they allowed 121 yards per game and won 12 games. In 2004, in was at 93 yards per game. In 2008, Iowa held opponents to 94 yards per game and the next year it was 121 a contest. Last year, the number of yards rushing per game jumped up to 149 a game and that was part of the reason the Hawkeyes were so inconsistent.
Looking at the numbers over the years, it suggests that there is a sweet spot, much like there is one the offensive side. That number is probably in the neighborhood of 125 yards per game on the ground for opposing teams. Ideally, it would be down in the 110 range and Phil Parker would put it under 100 per game as being the best number.
SPECIAL TEAMS PLAY IS ALWAYS KEY
If you have heard Kirk Ferentz say it once, you’ve heard him say it a hundred times, special teams matter each and every game. Iowa has to win all three phases or they are going to struggle to win games.
The past couple of years, Iowa has been fortunate to have strong special teams play thanks to the return abilities of Desmond King, the punting of Dillion Kidd and Ron Coluzzi, and the kicking of Marshall Koehn and Keith Duncan. The last two years, Iowa fans can point to pivotal plays made by each of them.
There are some real questions when it comes to special teams heading into the 2017 season. Iowa will be breaking in a new punter and that player hasn’t been named yet. There’s a good competition taking place at placekicker between Duncan and Miguel Recinos. Perhaps most importantly, with King gone to the NFL, the Hawkeyes will be breaking in a new kickoff and punt returner. The most interesting and possibly impactful return man could be Wadley, who has expressed an interest in the job. With Butler being added to the Iowa roster, the possibility of Wadley returning kicks seems to be much more real than it was this spring.
FINDING PASS CATCHERS
This dead horse has been beaten quite a bit. Iowa has one, yes one, returning wide receiver that has caught a pass in Matt VandeBerg and he’s coming off breaking the same foot twice in the past year.
Iowa is going to have to find some sort of passing game beyond throwing the ball to VandeBerg and tight ends Noah Fant or TJ Hockenson.
Nick Easley, a junior college transfer, gained the confidence of the Iowa coaches in spring ball and he’s going to play quite a bit. After a rough spring, sophomore Devonte Young has elevated his game as has junior Adrian Falconer. Then it comes down to probably three true freshmen who seem to be the most likely to play in Brandon Smith, Imhir Smith-Marsette, and Max Cooper. Smith and Smith-Marsette will have roles this year for sure and they probably are options for Iowa if they look to stretch the field.
The wild card is graduate transfer Matt Quarells, who officially joined the Hawkeyes while camp was going on thanks to some transfer issues. Quarells, who is originally from St. Louis and played at New Mexico, is going to be a factor this year, but the question is when. My sense is early on they find some special packages to get him on the field and then gradually increase his playing time.
Tom Kakert | Publisher
James Butler and the Iowa run game has a number they need to hit in 2017.
As we head into the first game week for the Iowa football team, we take a look at five keys to the 2017 season and some numbers they need to hit in the run game and stopping the run.
THE GAME MANAGER
QB doesn’t need to be a difference maker, but it’s hard to win when you shoot yourself in the foot.
While some quarterbacks don’t embrace the term “game manager”, that’s really what Iowa needs more than anything else this season from whoever is named the starting quarterback. I’m on the record believing that on Monday that Kirk Ferentz will Nathan Stanley as the starter, but regardless of who leads the offense, they won’t last long if they make costly mistakes.
It’s hard to come up with any real expectations for the Iowa quarterback this season simply because so much is unknown. As of this writing, we don’t know exactly who the quarterback will be and there are so many unknowns about who will be catching passes this fall.
If I had to come up with a solid comparison from a past Iowa quarterback for this season and what the Hawkeyes should hope for from the position it’s probably Nathan Chandler. Back in 2003, Chandler had the unenviable task of following the record setting season from Brad Banks. There’s no way that Chandler could do what Banks did simply because they were different types of signal callers.
Iowa won 10 games in 2003, including an Outback Bowl in over Florida. Chandler completed 53% of his passes for 2,040 yards. He connected on 18 touchdown throws and had 10 interceptions. That second number is probably a little higher than the Iowa coaches would want, but it gives you a ball park of the type of stats that would be solid for either Stanley or Wiegers in 2017. They certainly want to avoid the Stanzi 2009 number of 15 interceptions. That team could survive it because they were able to play great defense. This year’s defense could be pretty good, but my sense is they won’t be at the 2009 level.
ESTABLISH THE RUN GAME
The past two years have shown that you can have what amounts to a committee or a dynamic duo and get the job done on the ground.
Two years ago, the Hawkeyes have their four horsemen in Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels, Akrum Wadley, and Derrick Mitchell. That group averaged 182 yards per game on the ground. No one cracked the 1,000 yard mark individually, but every week someone picked up the ball and ran it effectively.
Last year, it was Wadley and Daniels doing all the damage as the Hawkeyes averaged 171 yards per game on the ground. With only two backs to feed most of the season, both Wadley and Daniels cracked the 1,000 yard mark for the year.
Of course, it all starts up front and last year, Iowa won the Joe Moore Award, which goes to the best offensive line in the country. Four of the five starters are back from that unit and all five of the expected started played significant snaps in 2016. That will give Wadley and graduate transfer James Butler, who joined the Hawkeyes this summer from Nevada, a chance to duplicate last year’s numbers.
Butler rushed for over 3,000 yards in his three years with Nevada and while it wasn’t against Big Ten competition, he’s certainly capable of being an impact player this year. I’m not ready to say he will put up Daniels type numbers, but he could be his equal. Wadley is up over the magical 190 pound mark and appears to be poised for a strong senior season.
While we don’t know what the distribution of carries will look like in 2017, it’s fair to say that Wadley and Butler will get the bulk of the work. Ideally, Iowa would like to get somewhere at or near the 171 yards per game and the higher that total goes, the better the chances the Hawkeyes will have for a strong season.
STOP THE RUN
There are two mantras for Iowa football under Kirk Ferentz. The first is to run the ball and the second is to stop the other team from running the ball.
When Iowa does stop the run, good things are going to happen, as in a good record is likely to happen. When they don’t, it’s seven wins at best and perhaps worse than that.
What the magic number that Iowa would like to get to against the run? As mentioned earlier, when the defense keeps it low, the number of wins generally goes up. Two years ago, they allowed 121 yards per game and won 12 games. In 2004, in was at 93 yards per game. In 2008, Iowa held opponents to 94 yards per game and the next year it was 121 a contest. Last year, the number of yards rushing per game jumped up to 149 a game and that was part of the reason the Hawkeyes were so inconsistent.
Looking at the numbers over the years, it suggests that there is a sweet spot, much like there is one the offensive side. That number is probably in the neighborhood of 125 yards per game on the ground for opposing teams. Ideally, it would be down in the 110 range and Phil Parker would put it under 100 per game as being the best number.
SPECIAL TEAMS PLAY IS ALWAYS KEY
If you have heard Kirk Ferentz say it once, you’ve heard him say it a hundred times, special teams matter each and every game. Iowa has to win all three phases or they are going to struggle to win games.
The past couple of years, Iowa has been fortunate to have strong special teams play thanks to the return abilities of Desmond King, the punting of Dillion Kidd and Ron Coluzzi, and the kicking of Marshall Koehn and Keith Duncan. The last two years, Iowa fans can point to pivotal plays made by each of them.
There are some real questions when it comes to special teams heading into the 2017 season. Iowa will be breaking in a new punter and that player hasn’t been named yet. There’s a good competition taking place at placekicker between Duncan and Miguel Recinos. Perhaps most importantly, with King gone to the NFL, the Hawkeyes will be breaking in a new kickoff and punt returner. The most interesting and possibly impactful return man could be Wadley, who has expressed an interest in the job. With Butler being added to the Iowa roster, the possibility of Wadley returning kicks seems to be much more real than it was this spring.
FINDING PASS CATCHERS
This dead horse has been beaten quite a bit. Iowa has one, yes one, returning wide receiver that has caught a pass in Matt VandeBerg and he’s coming off breaking the same foot twice in the past year.
Iowa is going to have to find some sort of passing game beyond throwing the ball to VandeBerg and tight ends Noah Fant or TJ Hockenson.
Nick Easley, a junior college transfer, gained the confidence of the Iowa coaches in spring ball and he’s going to play quite a bit. After a rough spring, sophomore Devonte Young has elevated his game as has junior Adrian Falconer. Then it comes down to probably three true freshmen who seem to be the most likely to play in Brandon Smith, Imhir Smith-Marsette, and Max Cooper. Smith and Smith-Marsette will have roles this year for sure and they probably are options for Iowa if they look to stretch the field.
The wild card is graduate transfer Matt Quarells, who officially joined the Hawkeyes while camp was going on thanks to some transfer issues. Quarells, who is originally from St. Louis and played at New Mexico, is going to be a factor this year, but the question is when. My sense is early on they find some special packages to get him on the field and then gradually increase his playing time.
