Lead into the season reminds me of '09

[ghostOfHomer777]

That's not to say that the '16 squad will be as successful as the '09 group ... however, the lead in seems rather similar.

- The '09 group experienced A LOT of injuries in the off-season, that particularly impacted the O.
- The '09 group was particularly young at one skill group (RB)
- The '09 group returned a lot of quality defenders, it looked as though the D was going to be very good
- The '09 group was entering the season with confidence after having a pretty successful '08 season. Building on that success, the '09 Hawks also had higher external expectations than you usually see for the Hawks.

Every point above applies to the '16 squad. The one difference is that the skill group in '16 is the WR unit. The implication of these parallels is that I expect that the Hawks might actually come more slowly out of the gate than many seem to expect.

Marc Morehouse as made a reference of "Ferentz in plain sight" ... reflecting on Ferentz's comments about all the injuries AND about the lack of explosive plays by the offense. I expect that these factors will most certainly contribute to Iowa coming out of the gate more slowly than we'd hope. Several posters share my concern about the significant loss of quality blockers from the '15 squad ... and I'm not just referring to our interior O-linemen. The loss of having a second quality blocking TE, the loss of awesome fullbacks, and the blocking from senior wide receivers .... those extra factors play CRITICAL ROLES in turning a good play into a truly EXPLOSIVE play. I anticipate that we'll see that the quality of the peripheral blocking will directly impact our ability to have explosive plays.

Furthermore, all the injuries will directly impact the consistency of the execution of the O. Last year, the Hawks were tough to defend by A LOT of opponents simply because we were so good at possessing the ball. However, against many opponents ... the Illinois game being a particularly poignant illustration, the Hawks could move the ball, but they had difficulty scoring. Without the benefit of explosive plays, we would have scored far less! Our ability to generate explosive plays was a significant contributor in the success of the '15 season. Without it ... the '16 season may be in danger of not being nearly as successful.

However, the silver lining is also the '09 season ... even though we still experienced a maddening number of close games ... particularly against inferior competition ... we still had a great season. While I expect that the '16 O will have far more issues than we'd expect ... I sincerely hope that the D can be a strength that can give the O more "wiggle room" as it develops.

 

[GarryO37]

The '16 group is more comparable to the '10 group IMO. Don't get me wrong. I agree with your points. This season just seems eerily similar.

I'm sure you can find just as many comparisons to '10 as you can '09.

 

[pocha444444]

What are all of these injuries you speak of?

 

[Roy-munson]

Iowa brings back their most explosive running back. Replacing tevaun is this biggest concern.

 

[Pepperman]

The '16 group is more comparable to the '10 group IMO.

I think you're both correct. To me, it is more like 2010. Expectations are high after a 2 loss season, we have a senior QB.

I've brought this up before, and I think it dovetails nicely with Ghost's point about moving the ball but sometimes struggling to score (or punch in TDs). SHORT YARDAGE seems to be a problem. I don't know if it is the zone blocking scheme that players are used to running and short yardage requires more of a man blocking scheme... but as nitpicky as this sounds, it "needs to be better" in my opinion!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

What are all of these injuries you speak of?

Ferentz obviously knows of all of them ... and he lamented about them (but didn't itemize them for the media). However, many guys have missed several DAYS of practice during camp ... and that can impact the overall execution, particularly if the guy missing is a starter.

The most obvious and important guys who have missed time include Beathard, Kittle, Scheel, and Welsh. Those guys are each positioned to get starting reps ... so their absence impacts the team. On D, Hesse, Mabin, and Niemann have missed time (to my knowledge). Again, when starters miss time - that can impact the overall execution of the unit.

Entering '09, some of the injuries were potentially more egregious ... Vandervelde was recovering from a torn pec (if memory serves), Calloway missed extensive time due to a leg issue (hamstring maybe), and even Bulaga missed time. To make matters worse, the incumbent starter at RB, Hampton was lost to injury even before the season started! That forced Iowa to have to play a RS FR (Robinson) and a TR FR (Wegher) as the leading RBs for the year.

As for more significant injuries ... Parker (WR), Hulett (DT), and Wisnieski (TE) are the ones that I can think of right off hand. Given how relatively young and inexperienced we are at BOTH wide receiver and tight end ... losing guys who could contribute at a high level definitely impacts things. When asked about a DT who had really made big strides ... the first person who Jaleel Johnson spoke of was Hulett. Thus, while he was just a 2nd team DT ... he was capable of providing the starters with a much needed breather. Hence, I wouldn't undercut the significance of Hulett's injury either.

As others rightly say, injuries ARE a part of the game. Thus, hopefully one person's misery can be another's opportunity. Young is poised to contribute at WR. Fant and/or Hockenson may benefit from Wisnieski's absence. Lattimore will potentially see the reps that would have gone to Hulett.

Ferentz always says that new stories will have to emerge for a squad to be successful. Already this squad is facing adversity ... and it will be interesting to see how they respond.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think you're both correct. To me, it is more like 2010. Expectations are high after a 2 loss season, we have a senior QB.

I've brought this up before, and I think it dovetails nicely with Ghost's point about moving the ball but sometimes struggling to score (or punch in TDs). SHORT YARDAGE seems to be a problem. I don't know if it is the zone blocking scheme that players are used to running and short yardage requires more of a man blocking scheme... but as nitpicky as this sounds, it "needs to be better" in my opinion!

And one of the bigger ironies is that the '15 season marked Greg Davis's most successful scoring O while coaching at Iowa. Hopefully it can and does improve!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The '16 group is more comparable to the '10 group IMO. Don't get me wrong. I agree with your points. This season just seems eerily similar.

I'm sure you can find just as many comparisons to '10 as you can '09.

Apart form the ones that I already mentioned ... BOTH the '09 and '16 having their strengths more on the defensive side of the ball. While the '10 D returned the DL and both safeties - we were critically depleted at LB (the #4 LB was a true freshman). Also, while Prater was good - he wasn't of the same quality as Spievey.

 

[GarryO37]

Apart form the ones that I already mentioned ... BOTH the '09 and '16 having their strengths more on the defensive side of the ball. While the '10 D returned the DL and both safeties - we were critically depleted at LB (the #4 LB was a true freshman). Also, while Prater was good - he wasn't of the same quality as Spievey.

We can sit here and compare the '09 and '16, and the '10 and '16 teams all day. You can find a lot of comparisons between both sets of teams. The glaring difference between them though is expectations. The '09 team was a relative unknown and came out of nowhere, much like the '15 team. The '10 and '16 teams were and are expected to be great.

You are right about the defense. It's the reason I don't believe we will see a repeat of the '10 season. I believe Iowa easily wins the BIG West, and will post a 11-1 or 10-2 record, maybe even 12-0 again. From what I've seen of the BTN practice specials so far, it seems that there is a pretty big gap between Iowa and the rest of the BIG West.

 

[nu2u]

Mabin is back to full strength as AFAIK, I don't think he missed any time, except maybe as a precautionary measure. I don't worry too much about multi-year starters who miss a few days of fall camp (I would put Beathard and Kittle in the same category) assuming the injury is indeed minor.

Can't wait to see Ojemudia play. Obviously, he lacks game experience if Mabin goes down again but the buzz has been on Ojemudia since he arrived. Last year, Parker spoke early about playing oj as a true frosh and then the difficult decision to redshirt him.

 

[EZ2BJZ]

There were more questions going into the 2009 season, especially at running back, then there are in 2016. The 2010 season seems a better comparison.

However, Iowa was coming off of the high of winning the Orange Bowl after the 2009 season; this Iowa team ended with a bitter defeat in the B1G championship game and an embarrassing performance in the Rose Bowl. Also, most preseason rankings don't have Iowa anywhere near the Top 10. In short, Iowa should go into this season hungry and with the mantra of still having something to prove.

So yes, I think Iowa is poised to have another memorable season. Provided key players stay healthy, I believe a double-digit win season is likely.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

There were more questions going into the 2009 season, especially at running back, then there are in 2016. The 2010 season seems a better comparison.

However, Iowa was coming off of the high of winning the Orange Bowl after the 2009 season; this Iowa team ended with a bitter defeat in the B1G championship game and an embarrassing performance in the Rose Bowl. Also, most preseason rankings don't have Iowa anywhere near the Top 10. In short, Iowa should go into this season hungry and with the mantra of still having something to prove.

So yes, I think Iowa is poised to have another memorable season. Provided key players stay healthy, I believe a double-digit win season is likely.

In 2009, Iowa's OL was "on paper" slated to potentially be a best-ever group. Had they been able to enjoy continued health - they potentially could have achieved that status. Otherwise, the ONLY real question about the '09 O related to the RBs.

In 2016, the Hawks have questions about BOTH the WRs and the TEs. Perhaps I have a biased view, however, I consider those differences offsetting ... consequently, I view both the '09 and '16 Os as residing in very similar territory.

Entering '09, the Iowa D really had no big questions. Similarly, entering '16, the Iowa D really has no big questions. Actually, there were concerns about pass-rush entering '09 ... just as there are questions/concerns about pass-rush for the '16 squad.

Entering '10, the Hawk O had questions on the OL and with regard to depth at RB ... however, past that, the O seemed like it was in a good situation. If there were any close parallels - the TE situations in both '16 and '10 were similar.

As I alluded before, the biggest contrast between '16 and '10 are the Ds. Not only did the '10 D have a "hole" to fill for an entire position unit ... but perhaps the biggest difference was on the sidelines. Lest we forget, due to health issues, Norm Parker ended up only coaching a few games in '10. Thus, the rest of the season was handled largely by Phil Parker ... a far less seasoned Phil Parker.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think you're both correct. To me, it is more like 2010. Expectations are high after a 2 loss season, we have a senior QB.

I would agree that BOTH the '16 and '10 seasons experienced the same ridiculously ramped-up expectations. However, the '09 squad also faced high expectations too. We had just come off a bowl game where we clobbered South Carolina and it appeared as though we going to be an even stronger team as a whole entering '09.

Frankly, as I've mentioned before, one of the biggest surprises concerning the '09 season was how many really close games we had.

As for the parallels about how both '10 and '16 seasons featured SR quarterbacks .... I'd say that '09 and '16 had just as close of a parallel ... with both situations featuring QBs in just their 2nd year starting.

 

[goodbyebobby]

Not a slight on RS QB situations aren't even close. Stanza was really good, and a true American, but he's nowhere close to CJ's caliber as a player.

 

[goodbyebobby]

Not a slight on RS QB situations aren't even close. Stanza was really good, and a true American, but he's nowhere close to CJ's caliber as a player.

And this team seems to me like 2002 offense with the 2004 defense. I think this DL is going to punish some passers psyches.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

And this team seems to me like 2002 offense with the 2004 defense. I think this DL is going to punish some passers psyches.

I'd sell a little bit of my soul for your vibe to prove a reality.

 

[InsaneHawkJJP]

OP. It's silly to compare this years team to any other team for so many reasons, the main one being every year is different. Different players, expectations, schedule, injuries, coaches, chemistry, so on and so forth. This years team will be as great as they want to be! I understand what you're trying to do here but it seems to me that you are really reaching. Like others have said, with the way last year ended this team will be super motivated and hungry! I look for big things again this year but with a better ending.

 

[Pepperman]

And this team seems to me like 2002 offense with the 2004 defense. I think this DL is going to punish some passers psyches.

Call me crazy, but if there ever is a team with the 02 offense and 04 defense, it better win the title. I'm sure it is theoretically possible, but that's such an amazing team overall (include Kaeding on ST right?)

 

[EZ2BJZ]

In 2009, Iowa's OL was "on paper" slated to potentially be a best-ever group. Had they been able to enjoy continued health - they potentially could have achieved that status. Otherwise, the ONLY real question about the '09 O related to the RBs.

In 2016, the Hawks have questions about BOTH the WRs and the TEs. Perhaps I have a biased view, however, I consider those differences offsetting ... consequently, I view both the '09 and '16 Os as residing in very similar territory.

Entering '09, the Iowa D really had no big questions. Similarly, entering '16, the Iowa D really has no big questions. Actually, there were concerns about pass-rush entering '09 ... just as there are questions/concerns about pass-rush for the '16 squad.

Entering '10, the Hawk O had questions on the OL and with regard to depth at RB ... however, past that, the O seemed like it was in a good situation. If there were any close parallels - the TE situations in both '16 and '10 were similar.

As I alluded before, the biggest contrast between '16 and '10 are the Ds. Not only did the '10 D have a "hole" to fill for an entire position unit ... but perhaps the biggest difference was on the sidelines. Lest we forget, due to health issues, Norm Parker ended up only coaching a few games in '10. Thus, the rest of the season was handled largely by Phil Parker ... a far less seasoned Phil Parker.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just remember things differently. Keep in mind after Iowa had three seasons of finishing in the Top 10 from 02-04, the next three seasons from 05-07 were all considered disappointments. At the time, people were beginning to wonder if Ferentz had already lost his ability to produce Top 25 teams, as many fans were questioning if his system and philosophy were too outdated.

In 2008, Iowa finished 9-4, but no one was really projecting them to be a Top 10 team in 2009. It wasn't just the loss of Shon Greene and having unproven running backs, the wide receivers and tight ends were also unproven--Moeki was injured so much that other guys stepped up, and DJK and Marvin McNutt were unknowns at the time. Also, Ricky Stanzi was going into 2009 as #1 for the first time to start a season. So, I would argue that there were a lot of unknowns.

There are some unknowns this year at WR and TE, I agree, at least at the WR position and back up TE, but I think George Kittle is expected to have a good season if he stays healthy. I also agree that Norm's health had a major influence on the team at that time. However, I'm not sure where you are seeing major changes on defense from 09 to 10. The defense returned Sash, Speivey, Greenwood, Hunter, Clayborn, Ballard, Klug and Binns, so I would say they had a pretty solid core returning.

Believe me, I am not expecting Iowa to have a disappointing 2016 like they did in 2010, and think they can have similar results as in 2009, but I would argue the comparison to this year's squad and 2010 is more valid. But, in truth, neither one is a perfect fit; I just see more parallels to 2010 than I do 2009, if we are going to try to compare apples to apples.

 

[El Simbolo]

Our 2002 offense with any of these defenses would be hard to beat: 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2014, 2016

 

[InsaneHawkJJP]

There are unknowns at every school every year, it's just that our unknowns are only two or three stars so they're considered more of an unknown. Just trust the staff to prepare our guys the best they can, because they have proven they can do that. We have talent and our coaches will develop it. As far as apples to apples go, pretty sure the entire 09 & 10 teams have graduated.

 

[Zildjian6868]

This team reminds me a little more of the 2010 team. The big difference is we are returning our star LB rather that our star DE.

 

[NileKinnicksGhost]

I think, in general, the expectations for this team are too high. While there were not a lot high draft picks from last year's senior squad, there were some very good pieces that are missing in order for Iowa to be successful.

Kicking and punting are unknown.
There is a serious lack of depth at TE.
We lost 2 outstanding blocking FB.
DE is a question mark. And if a DE can't seal the edge for the Iowa D, that's big trouble.
Tevaun Smith and Jordan Canzeri will be greatly missed.

Can Beathard, with not as my weapons, carry this offense? He's already dinged up. The D is going to have to perform even better if the offense can't move the ball. And as we have seen in years past, if the offense can't move the ball the D is exhausted by the 4th quarter.

I think they end up 8-4 and disappoint a lot of fans. I hope they go undefeated, that would be spectacular. And I don't doubt CJ's talent, but he can only do so much.

 

[nu2u]

Kicking and punting are unknown

Not completely unknown but untested. Recinos has a very strong leg, the question is accuracy. Agree that its a question mark. Punting, same.

There is a serious lack of depth at TE.

I don't know, tend to disagree, I wouldn't call it "serious" Kittle/Pekar is a pretty good two-deep if they stay healthy. If Kittle goes down then, yeah, serious problem. Right now, if Wisnieski was 100% there would be no issue IMO. Just need Vejvoda, Hockensen or Fant to show ability (I think TJ plays more this year and will perform very well).

We lost 2 outstanding blocking FB

Agree. This is a big hole to fill.

DE is a question mark. And if a DE can't seal the edge for the Iowa D, that's big trouble.

A possible issue - not because of edge containment but due to pass pressure. I think M. Nelson and Hesse will do fine. Coaches seem to be confident in Brincks and A.Nelson so we'll see.

Tevaun Smith and Jordan Canzeri will be greatly missed.

. Disagree. If Scheel stays healthy Smith will fast become a distant memory. Canzeri is easily replaced (I was a big fan of JC). Wadley may be a more explosive version of Canzeri and Mitchell is more than adequate replacement of Wadley becomes injured.

 

[goodbyebobby]

I'd sell a little bit of my soul for your vibe to prove a reality.

I love those tall, huge, DE's. They're going to rush hard and with their hands up they're going to mess with a lot of windows.

And they're both seem to be aggressive. I think this defense can be really, really, good.

 

[hawkeyefan101160]

09 was preseason 22. 15 people expected Iowa be average at best. They are ranked similarly to 2004 where they were preseason 19 compared to preseason 17 this ywar