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Locks. I see only only three in 2019

soybean

HR King
Sep 30, 2001
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Starting the process up developing my annual Hawkeye football forecast, which has, of course, a 99% accuracy history, and the early data points to only three locks in 2019.

Miami 10
Iowa 45

Rutgers 13
Iowa 42

MTS 17
Iowa 42

I also see only four probables in 2019.

Iowa 34
ISU 20

Minnesota 14
Iowa 31

Illinois 9
Iowa 51

Iowa 27
Nebraska 24

Then in decending order of likely victory.

Purdue
Penn State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Michigan

My early thinking is that a 9-3 or 10-2 season is the most plausable estimate at this point. And anything from 7-5 to 12-0 is possible. I will make my final prognostication the last week of August.
 
Starting the process up developing my annual Hawkeye football forecast, which has, of course, a 99% accuracy history, and the early data points to only three locks in 2019.

Miami 10
Iowa 45

Rutgers 13
Iowa 42

MTS 17
Iowa 42

I also see only four probables in 2019.

Iowa 34
ISU 20

Minnesota 14
Iowa 31

Illinois 9
Iowa 51

Iowa 27
Nebraska 24

Then in decending order of likely victory.

Purdue
Penn State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Michigan

My early thinking is that a 9-3 or 10-2 season is the most plausable estimate at this point. And anything from 7-5 to 12-0 is possible. I will make my final prognostication the last week of August.

I would say anything from 6-6 to 10-2 or better is possible depending on health.

If Illinois is not a lock, then Iowa is in for a really awful season. Illini are terrible.

Iowa will not be favored at ISU, so don't know how that one gets put into the probably category. I do like Iowa's chances better than most in that game, but don't know what it's probable. I would look at the season like this:

Highly likely victories
Miami
Rutgers
MTSU
Illinois

Highly unlikely win
Michigan

Iowa favored but could go either way:
Minnesota
Purdue
Penn State

Iowa likely to be not favored/toss up:

Iowa State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Nebraska

If Iowa loses to Michigan but goes 5-1 against West division foes Iowa has a great chance to go to the title game.
 
I would say anything from 6-6 to 10-2 or better is possible depending on health.

If Illinois is not a lock, then Iowa is in for a really awful season. Illini are terrible.

Iowa will not be favored at ISU, so don't know how that one gets put into the probably category. I do like Iowa's chances better than most in that game, but don't know what it's probable. I would look at the season like this:

Highly likely victories
Miami
Rutgers
MTSU
Illinois

Highly unlikely win
Michigan

Iowa favored but could go either way:
Minnesota
Purdue
Penn State

Iowa likely to be not favored/toss up:

Iowa State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Nebraska

If Iowa loses to Michigan but goes 5-1 against West division foes Iowa has a great chance to go to the title game.


Not a bad summary attempt, Dodger.
 
if Iowa is not favored over a team that won 4 games each of the last 2 seasons, something has gone terribly wrong.

what kind of world do you people live in when a 4 win team is favored over a 9 win team?
 
Starting the process up developing my annual Hawkeye football forecast, which has, of course, a 99% accuracy history, and the early data points to only three locks in 2019.

Miami 10
Iowa 45

Rutgers 13
Iowa 42

MTS 17
Iowa 42

I also see only four probables in 2019.

Iowa 34
ISU 20

Minnesota 14
Iowa 31

Illinois 9
Iowa 51

Iowa 27
Nebraska 24

Then in decending order of likely victory.

Purdue
Penn State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Michigan

My early thinking is that a 9-3 or 10-2 season is the most plausable estimate at this point. And anything from 7-5 to 12-0 is possible. I will make my final prognostication the last week of August.

You should probably move Illinois into the lock category if you believe that game will result in the largest MOV.
 
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if Iowa is not favored over a team that won 4 games each of the last 2 seasons, something has gone terribly wrong.

what kind of world do you people live in when a 4 win team is favored over a 9 win team?

Perhaps a preliminary one? It is only early July after all.
 
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I agree with Dodger.

I do believe this is the year for Iowa to make a run. I do not believe home or away makes much of a difference within the division nor ISU, but it might at the Big House since none of Iowa players have played there. (Oliver M does not count)

This year we need to win the games in the 4th qtr that we let go last year and not have a repeat of 2010/2016.

Win the West, Win the B1G, Win the Rose.
 
Right now I see 9-3 as the best possible scenario with 8-4 more likely. Nebby seems over hyped right now. I do think they will better than the 4-8 they were last year. ISU will be a big challenge this year with the game being played in Ames. Playing Michigan in the big house will be tough as well. We still have to find a way to beat Wiscy and NW. Those two are the biggest speed bumps in the 2019 season.
 
Illinois has been a mess but Lovie Smith has managed to lure a few highly regarded transfers and has also pulled-in a few 4-star play makers in the last two classes. Highly regarded RB Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein are back after injuries. If they are able to settle-in with a stable QB they should be able to score some points because they have 4 OL starters returning plus a grad transfer from Alabama. Two big time transfer WRs from Texas and USC should help the passing game.

Before the slew of injuries on offense hit last season they had a pretty potent offense (see 56 points vs. Minnesota, e.g.). The weakness has always been on defense. Not sure what the Illini have returning on that side. Still, I think they could surprise a bit this year...… say 5 wins (Vegas has them at O/U 3 wins) so I wouldn't say the Hawks are a "lock" to win until we see a couple early games. They will definitely get an upset win this year IMO … maybe at home vs. Nebraska on 9/21?? The more I think about it, I'm pegging this game as an early upset win for the Illini.
 
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if Iowa is not favored over a team that won 4 games each of the last 2 seasons, something has gone terribly wrong.

what kind of world do you people live in when a 4 win team is favored over a 9 win team?
I assume you're talking about braska?
Their records in 4.5 months will be a little more important than the records from last year ;)


Illinois 9
Iowa 51
.
:confused:
are you saying this is your score prediction? If so, how is that not a lock? At a quick glance it appears to be the largest margin. :confused:
 
I assume you're talking about braska?
Their records in 4.5 months will be a little more important than the records from last year ;)



:confused:
are you saying this is your score prediction? If so, how is that not a lock? At a quick glance it appears to be the largest margin. :confused:

Yes, it a flaw in my system. It shows on a 13% chance the Illini win, but it also spit out a 51-9 Iowa win. There seems to be one like this every year. It will worked out by late August...I hope.
 
Illinois has been a mess but Lovie Smith has managed to lure a few highly regarded transfers and has also pulled-in a few 4-star play makers in the last two classes. Highly regarded RB Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein are back after injuries. If they are able to settle-in with a stable QB they should be able to score some points because they have 4 OL starters returning plus a grad transfer from Alabama. Two big time transfer WRs from Texas and USC should help the passing game.

Before the slew of injuries on offense hit last season they had a pretty potent offense (see 56 points vs. Minnesota, e.g.). The weakness has always been on defense. Not sure what the Illini have returning on that side. Still, I think they could surprise a bit this year...… say 5 wins (Vegas has them at O/U 3 wins) so I wouldn't say the Hawks are a "lock" to win until we see a couple early games. They will definitely get an upset win this year IMO … maybe at home vs. Nebraska on 9/21??
You may be right nu, but until we see different Lovie can pull in whoever he wants, but does he know what to do with them is the question?
 
No one knows obviously, but I see at least one major difference from most of you.

Iowa has won 5 of 6 v. Michigan. I don't think there's a lot of fear there for Iowa because these two programs basically believe the same things, and unless Michigan's talent simply overshadows the Hawks (and it has at times), this is a very, very motivating matchup that is very winnable. It's a chance to validate technique and fundamentals, and KF teams do very well here. If you have Michigan as an L, I don't understand you. Our coaches and players have proven excellent over time when a game comes down to execution versus a bigger name university. I'll go one step further: I think the chances of us beating Michigan are better than Wisconsin and Purdue. If it was in Iowa City, I would add Iowa State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Wisky's run defense has to be broken by the Hawks before I will believe otherwise. Brohm may be the best game coach in the League; he's a savage. We could easily win either/both of those games, but we just haven't. If ISU doesn't do it this year, I'm not sure when they will. NW is to Iowa as Iowa is to Michigan. They see us as a measuring stick with similar convictions, and they believe they can outdo us in the end, and unfortunately, it has played out like that too often. Penn State is the biggest bitch on our schedule; they used to be similar to Harbaugh's UM teams (bloated), but they turned the corner. Maybe we work Kinnick magic and take 'em down though. It can certainly happen.

I'm not sure what to think of Nebraska, Miami, Minnesota, Illinois, or Rutgers. For example, the Nebraska QB could be out for the season game 1 or he could be present for the Heisman presentation. I have no idea. But, another belief I'll share is that MTSU isn't a gimme. I think we win, but they're SEC country kids who have good skill position players this season. If they're QB plays well...? They open at Michigan and host Duke before meeting us, so they're not going to be awed by us, and they have a bye before us. Need I remind you how many times we've lost "this game"? NDSU, WMU, CMU, UNI (shoulda), N.Ill., etc. I keep thinking "step on their throat early and often"...?

Love this staff and team. Can't wait to see what happens.
 
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Great post Humble pie. Only thing I'll disagree on is MTSU. If we hope to be a contender for the league title and a top 25 team you can't be worried about a team like that at home. I know they have some skill position players and such but we have to be able to beat them soundly. We just do. In my opinion the season is going to come down to 2 road games, @ Wisconsin and Northwestern back to back. That's rough. Our record against them the last 10 years is not great, especially Wiscy as we all know. And Northwestern is certainly not scared of us either as Humble posted. I think we can win the division w/2 losses, and if one is @Michigan and we split w/Wisconsin and Northwestern and win the rest we will win the league. Lose those back to back games in the division and we are toast.
 
Great post Humble pie. Only thing I'll disagree on is MTSU. If we hope to be a contender for the league title and a top 25 team you can't be worried about a team like that at home. I know they have some skill position players and such but we have to be able to beat them soundly. We just do. In my opinion the season is going to come down to 2 road games, @ Wisconsin and Northwestern back to back. That's rough. Our record against them the last 10 years is not great, especially Wiscy as we all know. And Northwestern is certainly not scared of us either as Humble posted. I think we can win the division w/2 losses, and if one is @Michigan and we split w/Wisconsin and Northwestern and win the rest we will win the league. Lose those back to back games in the division and we are toast.
I'm not saying they'll lose. I'm just saying history is pretty clear about how "this game" goes or can go. I remember being told similar things all summer before NDSU came down and out toughed and out trenched us in the second half. " We have to be able to..." I guess I'm old enough to see they are probably N. Texas but could be NDSU, and it pisses me off that we could lose "this game" again. Basically, every year, to Iowa's credit they beat someone they probably shouldn't and to Iowa's discredit they lose to someone they should never fail against.
 
No one knows obviously, but I see at least one major difference from most of you.

Iowa has won 5 of 6 v. Michigan. I don't think there's a lot of fear there for Iowa because these two programs basically believe the same things, and unless Michigan's talent simply overshadows the Hawks (and it has at times), this is a very, very motivating matchup that is very winnable. It's a chance to validate technique and fundamentals, and KF teams do very well here. If you have Michigan as an L, I don't understand you. Our coaches and players have proven excellent over time when a game comes down to execution versus a bigger name university. I'll go one step further: I think the chances of us beating Michigan are better than Wisconsin and Purdue. If it was in Iowa City, I would add Iowa State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Wisky's run defense has to be broken by the Hawks before I will believe otherwise. Brohm may be the best game coach in the League; he's a savage. We could easily win either/both of those games, but we just haven't. If ISU doesn't do it this year, I'm not sure when they will. NW is to Iowa as Iowa is to Michigan. They see us as a measuring stick with similar convictions, and they believe they can outdo us in the end, and unfortunately, it has played out like that too often. Penn State is the biggest bitch on our schedule; they used to be similar to Harbaugh's UM teams (bloated), but they turned the corner. Maybe we work Kinnick magic and take 'em down though. It can certainly happen.

I'm not sure what to think of Nebraska, Miami, Minnesota, Illinois, or Rutgers. For example, the Nebraska QB could be out for the season game 1 or he could be present for the Heisman presentation. I have no idea. But, another belief I'll share is that MTSU isn't a gimme. I think we win, but they're SEC country kids who have good skill position players this season. If they're QB plays well...? They open at Michigan and host Duke before meeting us, so they're not going to be awed by us, and they have a bye before us. Need I remind you how many times we've lost "this game"? NDSU, WMU, CMU, UNI (shoulda), N.Ill., etc. I keep thinking "step on their throat early and often"...?

Love this staff and team. Can't wait to see what happens.

I think Iowa can win any game on the schedule, but Michigan is going to be really good. 5 star Sr. QB, a slew of highly rated receivers, and tons of talent on D... I'm assuming their new offensive scheme proves more effective than what they've used the past few years...
 
Starting the process up developing my annual Hawkeye football forecast, which has, of course, a 99% accuracy history, and the early data points to only three locks in 2019.

Miami 10
Iowa 45

Rutgers 13
Iowa 42

MTS 17
Iowa 42

I also see only four probables in 2019.

Iowa 34
ISU 20

Minnesota 14
Iowa 31

Illinois 9
Iowa 51

Iowa 27
Nebraska 24

Then in decending order of likely victory.

Purdue
Penn State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Michigan

My early thinking is that a 9-3 or 10-2 season is the most plausable estimate at this point. And anything from 7-5 to 12-0 is possible. I will make my final prognostication the last week of August.
Iowa State is always the boiling point.

If we win, guaranteed 8 or more wins. If we lose, guaranteed 7 or fewer.

That's apparently the way it works under Ferentz.

Also, I think Wisconsin is more likely a win than Penn State, even though we play in Madison. PSU seems to pull sh** out of their ass under Franklin to make him look better than he is.
 
We will beat:

Miami, Rutgers, MTSU, + Illinois without too much of a fight. Illinois has several talented players but they are far from a well-rounded product. I hope we blow out Rutgers and get the mojo flowing because Rutgers took some good teams to the wire last year.

ISU, Wisky, NW, Purdue, + Minny in good games but we will pull them out because the Hawks are more complete than any of these teams and have more studs on both sides of the ball. Yeah it's asking a lot to sweep these five, but if we don't shoot ourselves in the foot we can beat them all.

One of Michigan, PSU, and Nebraska. Michigan is loaded and they are at home. Yes, we could beat them but in my book it's less than 50/50. Penn St. has had our number. Even though most of the stars we know are gone, they reload each year and we don't know what new names await us. Martinez scares me, he almost brought Nebraska back last year. It could be a shootout.

I have us at 10-2 and in pole position to win the West. Lets. Go. Hawks.
 
so-it-is-written-so-shall-it-be-done.jpg
 
Starting the process up developing my annual Hawkeye football forecast, which has, of course, a 99% accuracy history, and the early data points to only three locks in 2019.

Miami 10
Iowa 45

Rutgers 13
Iowa 42

MTS 17
Iowa 42

I also see only four probables in 2019.

Iowa 34
ISU 20

Minnesota 14
Iowa 31

Illinois 9
Iowa 51

Iowa 27
Nebraska 24

Then in decending order of likely victory.

Purdue
Penn State
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Michigan

My early thinking is that a 9-3 or 10-2 season is the most plausable estimate at this point. And anything from 7-5 to 12-0 is possible. I will make my final prognostication the last week of August.
"So let it be written, so let it be done!".
 
I'm at 7-5, just like most other years.

Don't disagree with the OP's analysis. Nothing between 6-6 and 9-3 will surprise me.
 
I agree with Dodger.

I do believe this is the year for Iowa to make a run. I do not believe home or away makes much of a difference within the division nor ISU, but it might at the Big House since none of Iowa players have played there. (Oliver M does not count)

This year we need to win the games in the 4th qtr that we let go last year and not have a repeat of 2010/2016.

Win the West, Win the B1G, Win the Rose.

Why do you believe that this is the year? Something specific or just a feeling in your gut?
 
I think Vegas has us at 7 1/2 wins on the year. I'll probably take the over
 
if Iowa is not favored over a team that won 4 games each of the last 2 seasons, something has gone terribly wrong.

what kind of world do you people live in when a 4 win team is favored over a 9 win team?

A world where it took a walkoff field goal to beat a 4 win team last year. At home.
 
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I think Iowa can win any game on the schedule, but Michigan is going to be really good. 5 star Sr. QB, a slew of highly rated receivers, and tons of talent on D... I'm assuming their new offensive scheme proves more effective than what they've used the past few years...
No doubt. I agree and feel this way most any year, but I am an optimist. Michigan may blister us by 50, but I just don't see it in their to-date schemes and personnel over the last decade. If we win, it's an upset, but not a big one to me. If new coordinators and coaches change things, all bets are off.
 
The worm always turns. And just as we once had Penn State's number, it now seems we have Michigan's...at least in the near term. We can grow complacent as fans, but this is the BIG10. Gone are the days of 21 straight wins over a Northwestern. As much fun as we have had with Nebraska lately doesn't mean we own them. Every dog has his day.
 
No one knows obviously, but I see at least one major difference from most of you.

Iowa has won 5 of 6 v. Michigan. I don't think there's a lot of fear there for Iowa because these two programs basically believe the same things, and unless Michigan's talent simply overshadows the Hawks (and it has at times), this is a very, very motivating matchup that is very winnable. It's a chance to validate technique and fundamentals, and KF teams do very well here. If you have Michigan as an L, I don't understand you. Our coaches and players have proven excellent over time when a game comes down to execution versus a bigger name university. I'll go one step further: I think the chances of us beating Michigan are better than Wisconsin and Purdue. If it was in Iowa City, I would add Iowa State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Wisky's run defense has to be broken by the Hawks before I will believe otherwise. Brohm may be the best game coach in the League; he's a savage. We could easily win either/both of those games, but we just haven't. If ISU doesn't do it this year, I'm not sure when they will. NW is to Iowa as Iowa is to Michigan. They see us as a measuring stick with similar convictions, and they believe they can outdo us in the end, and unfortunately, it has played out like that too often. Penn State is the biggest bitch on our schedule; they used to be similar to Harbaugh's UM teams (bloated), but they turned the corner. Maybe we work Kinnick magic and take 'em down though. It can certainly happen.

I'm not sure what to think of Nebraska, Miami, Minnesota, Illinois, or Rutgers. For example, the Nebraska QB could be out for the season game 1 or he could be present for the Heisman presentation. I have no idea. But, another belief I'll share is that MTSU isn't a gimme. I think we win, but they're SEC country kids who have good skill position players this season. If they're QB plays well...? They open at Michigan and host Duke before meeting us, so they're not going to be awed by us, and they have a bye before us. Need I remind you how many times we've lost "this game"? NDSU, WMU, CMU, UNI (shoulda), N.Ill., etc. I keep thinking "step on their throat early and often"...?

Love this staff and team. Can't wait to see what happens.
Truly a great post. Thanks. I’m in agreement with everything you said.
 
if Iowa is not favored over a team that won 4 games each of the last 2 seasons, something has gone terribly wrong.

what kind of world do you people live in when a 4 win team is favored over a 9 win team?
Should Iowa have not been considered to win more than 7 games in 2015 simply because of their 2014 results? They won 5 more games. Past results are not indicative of future results.

Assuming you are talking about Nebraska, as we focus 80% of our time on them, if you watched their games and didn’t see a team that improved through the year and bought into Frost, you have blinders on. IIRC, they had several transfers out, so there was a culture change. Like him or not, Frost has won big at a lower level and there is no reason to think he won’t be an improvement over the previous coach.

I still think Iowa wins this year, but it is not a slam dunk. We play in the Lincoln and they could have a better record and momentum going into the game simply because they’re playing a powderpuff schedule like we did last year. Honestly, I am more concerned about them in the upcoming years after Frost has has all his players, just as I am concerned about Minnesota and Purdue moving forward.
 
Like him or not, Frost has won big at a lower level and there is no reason to think he won’t be an improvement over the previous coach.

forgive me if you've seen me say this before...

Scott Frost has coached a total of 3 seasons
let that sink in.

he had one year at Central Florida going 13-0
that's a good job
but in context... UCF had 10,12, and 9 wins in the years before going 0-12
George O'Leary built a powerhouse there... and Scott Frost reaped the benefits.
(reminds me of Todd Lickliter)

the year after Scott Frost, Scott Heupel goes 12-1
business as usual
the year before Scott Frost at Nebraska, Mike Riley goes 4-8
the year with Scott Frost, Nebraska goes 4-8
business as usual.

you would think a team that recruits as good as Nebraska has for years and years would be much better than 4-8.
but its not about recruiting... its about developing.

I think people are getting way ahead of themselves with regard to Scott Frost.
I don't see any reason to believe Nebraska will improve upon the 4-8 record they had a season ago.

compare him with a coach like Jeff Brohm
look at what he did at Western Kentucky as well as what he has done in the Big Ten.
or even PJ Fleck and what he done at Western Michigan

these guys are night and day compared with Scott Frost.
this guy could be a complete lemon... nobody knows yet.
not everybody that coaches is a great coach.
right now I'm more concerned with Illinois than Nebraska
 
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forgive me if you've seen me say this before...

Scott Frost has coached a total of 3 seasons
let that sink in.

he had one year at Central Florida going 13-0
that's a good job
but in context... UCF had 10,12, and 9 wins in the years before going 0-12
George O'Leary built a powerhouse there... and Scott Frost reaped the benefits.
(reminds me of Todd Lickliter)

the year after Scott Frost, Scott Heupel goes 12-1
business as usual
the year before Scott Frost at Nebraska, Mike Riley goes 4-8
the year with Scott Frost, Nebraska goes 4-8
business as usual.

you would think a team that recruits as good as Nebraska has for years and years would be much better than 4-8.
but its not about recruiting... its about developing.

I think people are getting way ahead of themselves with regard to Scott Frost.
I don't see any reason to believe Nebraska will improve upon the 4-8 record they had a season ago.

compare him with a coach like Jeff Brohm
look at what he did at Western Kentucky as well as what he has done in the Big Ten.
or even PJ Fleck and what he done at Western Michigan

these guys are night and day compared with Scott Frost.
this guy could be a complete lemon... nobody knows yet.
not everybody that coaches is a great coach.
right now I'm more concerned with Illinois than Nebraska

You are trying too hard
 
forgive me if you've seen me say this before...

Scott Frost has coached a total of 3 seasons
let that sink in.

he had one year at Central Florida going 13-0
that's a good job
but in context... UCF had 10,12, and 9 wins in the years before going 0-12
George O'Leary built a powerhouse there... and Scott Frost reaped the benefits.
(reminds me of Todd Lickliter)

the year after Scott Frost, Scott Heupel goes 12-1
business as usual
the year before Scott Frost at Nebraska, Mike Riley goes 4-8
the year with Scott Frost, Nebraska goes 4-8
business as usual.

you would think a team that recruits as good as Nebraska has for years and years would be much better than 4-8.
but its not about recruiting... its about developing.

I think people are getting way ahead of themselves with regard to Scott Frost.
I don't see any reason to believe Nebraska will improve upon the 4-8 record they had a season ago.

compare him with a coach like Jeff Brohm
look at what he did at Western Kentucky as well as what he has done in the Big Ten.
or even PJ Fleck and what he done at Western Michigan

these guys are night and day compared with Scott Frost.
this guy could be a complete lemon... nobody knows yet.
not everybody that coaches is a great coach.
right now I'm more concerned with Illinois than Nebraska
There is about 10 things wrong here and I hope Nebraska fails as much as anyone but theyre not going 4-8 this year. They'll win at least 6....possibly 8
 
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