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Lost: mid-range jumpshot

I've done a lot of things, but I have yet to play basketball naked. It is now on my bucket list.

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Steph doesn't have a good mid range game. He's in the low 40s at that range with limited spacing. Rondo is way better. He is around 50% with a lot more saturated spacing.

Yes I know you hate Curry. Stick to complaining about Kim Reynolds, this thread is for bball fans.

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From a risk / reward perspective, shots from 15-23 feet are the worst shots in basketball.

If you shoot 50% on 2 point shots, you only need to shoot 34% on the same number of 3 point shots to win.
 
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From a risk / reward perspective, shots from 15-23 feet are the worst shots in basketball.

If you shoot 50% on 2 point shots, you only need to shoot 34% on the same number of 3 point shots to win.
Wow, what a brilliant mind you are.
 
Your chart proves my point. His mid range game is spotty and is well below 50%. He's a 3 and layup guy.

Rondo was good from the elbows, yes. In 2017-2018, Curry shot 59% from mid-range, best in the decade. Second best in the decade was Curry in 2011-2012, also 59%.
 
From a risk / reward perspective, shots from 15-23 feet are the worst shots in basketball.

If you shoot 50% on 2 point shots, you only need to shoot 34% on the same number of 3 point shots to win.

It's not that simple, you're obviously much less likely to get fouled on a 3. The long rebound from a 3 leaves you more open to runouts, your ORB% and 2nd chance rate is going to be higher off missed 2s from inside or mid-range. Guys like Alridge and Paul do pretty consistently get over 50% of 2p%.

While your overall point is largely correct and pretty well accepted in basketball analytics, the general idea is basically as old as the 3 point line itself (Paul Westhead and Loyola Marymount, the Grinnel system, etc), but the rational of how you get there through analytics is way more nuanced and complex.
 
It's not that simple, you're obviously much less likely to get fouled on a 3. The long rebound from a 3 leaves you more open to runouts, your ORB% and 2nd chance rate is going to be higher off missed 2s from inside or mid-range. Guys like Alridge and Paul do pretty consistently get over 50% of 2p%.

While your overall point is largely correct and pretty well accepted in basketball analytics, the general idea is basically as old as the 3 point line itself (Paul Westhead and Loyola Marymount, the Grinnel system, etc), but the rational of how you get there through analytics is way more nuanced and complex.

LoL. You aren't going to get fouled much more from 15 to 23 feet than from past 24. If you do get fouled, you still only get 2 free throws, and you aren't going to make both. And if you shoot from 15 to 23 feet, your own chance of getting a rebound is less than if you shoot from 15 feet in.

This is the internet, so I won't bother with my experience. I'll simply stand by my opinion.
 
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LoL. You aren't going to get fouled much more from 15 to 23 feet than from past 24. If you do get fouled, you still only get 2 free throws, and you aren't going to make both. And if you shoot from 15 to 23 feet, your own chance of getting a rebound is less than if you shoot from 15 feet in.

This is the internet, so I won't bother with my experience. I'll simply stand by my opinion.
You're accepting nuance into the equation now. Good.
 
Rondo was good from the elbows, yes. In 2017-2018, Curry shot 59% from mid-range, best in the decade. Second best in the decade was Curry in 2011-2012, also 59%.
This is kind of statistical cherry picking. Steph only played 51 games the 17/18 season and only took 126 shots total from midrange. He literally took nearly 4 times as many 3s that year.

And the 2011/12 season was even worse. Steph only played 26 games that year.

When he plays full seasons his average drops to somewhere above the league average but still short where the elites play.
 
This is kind of statistical cherry picking. Steph only played 51 games the 17/18 season and only took 126 shots total from midrange. He literally took nearly 4 times as many 3s that year.

And the 2011/12 season was even worse. Steph only played 26 games that year.

When he plays full seasons his average drops to somewhere above the league average but still short where the elites play.

Fair enough, that is true as I looked at % leaders and not totals, but he had to qualify on totals.
 
LoL. You aren't going to get fouled much more from 15 to 23 feet than from past 24. If you do get fouled, you still only get 2 free throws, and you aren't going to make both. And if you shoot from 15 to 23 feet, your own chance of getting a rebound is less than if you shoot from 15 feet in.

This is the internet, so I won't bother with my experience. I'll simply stand by my opinion.

Yep, you're actually going to get fouled less in that range, teams don't close out on those shots like they do on 3's. Also I don't think it's true that the OReb % is higher on mid range shot, the longer the rebound the more likely it is to go to the offense.
 
LoL. You aren't going to get fouled much more from 15 to 23 feet than from past 24. If you do get fouled, you still only get 2 free throws, and you aren't going to make both. And if you shoot from 15 to 23 feet, your own chance of getting a rebound is less than if you shoot from 15 feet in.

This is the internet, so I won't bother with my experience. I'll simply stand by my opinion.

Well you're flipping between 2 different criteria here, you talk about 2p% but obviously not all 2p are created equal, so then you just isolate the 15-23 but in your initial "data" you're talking about just 2p% as a whole. Like I said, your idea about the 15-23 has really been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, and they're largely taken, and really always have been, when they're just the best available shot in the situation.

Your point about foul shots is ridiculous because pretty much everyone except maybe the worst FT% years of Andre Drummond or Dwight Howard is a +expected point value over a half court possession when they get two foul shots.
 
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