Middle East war, stock market, and border— How does it affect the election?

[BrunoMars420]

So we are looking at a possible recession and the stock market taking a massssssive dump, Iran and Israel finally about to go down, and the obvious border situation.

How bad does this hurt Kamala? Or can she play it off as she wasn’t the president so she has a different vision of how to approach the situations?

I think this is going to help Trump in those must win states just due to the market getting rekt. Now how the candidates navigate their messaging the upcoming months will be interesting.

 

[Jerome Silberman]

It won't. People that want to vote for Trump will find their justification no matter what happens and then continue to use it to delude themselves.

We've been here before.

 

[onlyTheObvious]

I don’t think it will. Trump is so polarizing the election boils down to voting on personality.

 

[ihhawk]

This week will be huge for Kamala. It could make or break her campaign. People will look for her for leadership

 

[ClarindaA's]

It won't. People that want to vote for Trump will find their justification no matter what happens and then continue use it to delude themselves.

We've been here before.

I think the next month with be about the independent voters

 

[StormHawk42]

I don’t think the market will play into it much if at all. SP is still +8 YTD. Also, if rates get cut in September, that will probably boost some optimism.

What she has to do at her rallies though is something that Biden hasn’t done. She can’t just tout great economic recovery with inflation crushing grocery prices. She needs to come out with a message of “I feel your pain and here’s how I can help”. That’s what people want to hear.

 

[Jerome Silberman]

I think the next month with be about the independent voters

IMO, this election is decided. It's only a matter of how badly Trump loses this time around.

 

[Moral]

Massive dumps zoomed out

 

[dekhawk]

I don’t think the market will play into it much if at all. SP is still +8 YTD. Also, if rates get cut in September, that will probably boost some optimism.

What she has to do at her rallies though is something that Biden hasn’t done. She can’t just tout great economic recovery with inflation crushing grocery prices. She needs to come out with a message of “I feel your pain and here’s how I can help”. That’s what people want to hear.

Based on commercials in Nashville, that is Harris’s message.

 

[BrunoMars420]

I think the next month with be about the independent voters

Bingo

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Zero effect for this voter.

 

[cigaretteman]

affect.

 

[NorthernHawkeye]

The average Dem would be willing to wallow in the decay of civilization so long as they have the cult of abortion. Fricking weird stuff.

 

[BrunoMars420]

Zero effect for this voter.

That wasn’t the question unless you are in those important swings states. Think middle aged, mostly white, and lower to middle class type of voter. Not sure what education level the independents are in these states.

 

[BrunoMars420]

That wasn’t the question unless you are in those important swings states. Think middle aged, mostly white, and lower to middle class type of voter. Not sure what education level the independents are in these states.

US independent voters in swing states: Who are they?

Could independent voters swing the election?

www.reuters.com

“In terms of education, over 70% of independents don’t have a college degree, according to the polling data.”

This actually helps Trump

 

[Rifler]

Annoying I know, but regarding the thread title,.. Affect is the verb, effect would be the noun.

 

[BrunoMars420]

Annoying I know, but regarding the thread title,.. Affect is the verb, effect would be the noun.

Could never get these right.

 

[OrlandNole]

So we are looking at a possible recession and the stock market taking a massssssive dump...

Voter disinformation is probably the biggest obstacle.

 

[TennNole17]

You think voters look at actual important issues and the candidate's opinion on those important issues? Laughable

 

[goldmom]

That wasn’t the question unless you are in those important swings states. Think middle aged, mostly white, and lower to middle class type of voter. Not sure what education level the independents are in these states.

48% of Americans do not have a college degree.
And as of late there’s a trend for recent high school grads to go to trade school into skilled trades instead of college. So I’m not sure if that might be a permanent trend but it bears watching.
Are these people really “uneducated”?

 

[franklinman]

The average Dem would be willing to wallow in the decay of civilization so long as they have the cult of abortion. Fricking weird stuff.

Are you telling me abortion is NOT on the ballot ?

 

[goldmom]

Are you telling me abortion is NOT on the ballot ?

In several states it is.
Polls across the board indicate it’s a big issue with 15% of voters.

 

[seminole97]

With regard to the Middle East, I’d bet Bibi will do what he thinks will get a less restrictive White House.

 

[goldmom]

With regard to the Middle East, I’d bet Bibi will do what he thinks will get a less restrictive White House.

Really?
I think Bibi will do what he thinks is best for Israel

 

[BrunoMars420]

48% of Americans do not have a college degree.
And as of late there’s a trend for recent high school grads to go to trade school into skilled trades instead of college. So I’m not sure if that might be a permanent trend but it bears watching.
Are these people really “uneducated”?

They are uneducated based on how these polling places define “uneducated” which I take as someone without a bachelor/associates/masters college degree

 

[Colonoscopy]

Of course Trump isn't a normal candidate

 

[seminole97]

Really?
I think Bibi will do what he thinks is best for Israel

I contend Bibi thinks a less restrictive WH is best for Israel.
I don’t think that’s a universal Israeli position, but I’d bet it’s Bibi’s.

 

[BrunoMars420]

With regard to the Middle East, I’d bet Bibi will do what he thinks will get a less restrictive White House.

I don’t think it matters honestly. Iran is already making its bed with how they are responding to other Middle East nations in this conflict.

 

[seminoleed]

Really?
I think Bibi will do what he thinks is best for Israel

Or maybe Bibi thinks a less restrictive WH IS best for Israel?

I don’t think it matters honestly. Iran is already making its bed with how they are responding to other Middle East nations in this conflict.

 

[seminole97]

I don’t think it matters honestly. Iran is already making its bed with how they are responding to other Middle East nations in this conflict.

What Iran is threatening next (that will apparently involve the US) is directly in response to the Israeli provocation of murdering a diplomat they were hosting.

Bibi has levers to make things worse.
It seems like he’s happy to pull them.

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Kamala does not have the ability to create on her own. If things were spinning like a top right now she could fall back on keeping the train on the tracks. The problem is the wheels are literally falling the **** off as we speak.

Zero effect for this voter.

Shocked

 

[ft254]

The average Dem would be willing to wallow in the decay of civilization so long as they have the cult of abortion. Fricking weird stuff.

Numb nuts, reconcile to the fact freedom of choice is not a partisan issue. You losers are on the losing end of a lost argument.

Which is why states (mostly*) are the worst forms of government. The dumbest people elect the dumbest politicians that do the stupidest things.

*Iowa, Missouri, Texas, Louisianan, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Oklahoma, etc.

 

[seminole97]

Numb nuts, reconcile to the fact freedom of choice is not a partisan issue. You losers are on the losing end of a lost argument.

Which is why states (mostly*) are the worst forms of government. The dumbest people elect the dumbest politicians that do the stupidest things.

*Iowa, Missouri, Texas, Louisianan, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Oklahoma, etc.

How did CA, NY, and IL escape your list when so many hundreds of thousands of Americans flee their political climate?

 

[BrunoMars420]

What Iran is threatening next (that will apparently involve the US) is directly in response to the Israeli provocation of murdering a diplomat they were hosting.

Bibi has levers to make things worse.
It seems like he’s happy to pull them.

Guess who he asked before he pulled on of those levers?

 

[seminole97]

Guess who he asked before he pulled on of those levers?

You think the U.S. green lit the attack in Iran?

Based on what? Is there some logic or reporting you could share supporting that?

Haniyeh killing in Iran risks dragging US into war it says it doesn’t want​

US publicly states its goals are ceasefire in Gaza and regional de-escalation, but its ally Israel makes that difficult.​

Speaking on Monday, two days after Israel blamed Lebanon’s Hezbollah for the attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, White House official John Kirby reiterated US support for Israel, but emphasised that Washington still wanted regional de-escalation.

“We believe that there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby said, as thoughts turned to what Israel’s next move would be, and whether it would trigger a long-feared all-out regional war.

The United States has publicly stated that it does not want this eventuality, even as it sent forces to the Middle East following the October 7 attack on Israel, and the beginning of the war on Gaza, in a show of support for Tel Aviv.

The Middle East, and the wider world, has held its breath on several occasions since then, most notably when Israel killed two Iranian generals at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus in April, followed by a telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel.

At the time, reports indicated that the US had worked to hold back Israel from escalating and to also keep Israel from launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US has been one of the countries mediating a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although that looks to have encountered several stumbling blocks over the past few months.

Now, after the brazen assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – which the Palestinian group and Iran blame on Israel – and the killing of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, all within a few hours, the US’s twin objectives of a ceasefire and regional de-escalation look like they are in tatters.

Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group’s US Program, told Al Jazeera that regional de-escalation would ultimately emerge after a ceasefire in Gaza, and that, without one, the potential for an expanded conflict drawing in US forces stationed in the region was always present.

“If you want to avoid further escalation in the region, including an escalation that involves US troops, you’re going to need to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. That’s what is necessary to calm things down with the Houthis [in Yemen], with Hezbollah, and continue the lull in attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq,” Finucane said.

But, with the recent attacks, Finucane believes that the current prospects for a US-brokered ceasefire have been complicated, if not derailed, in the short term.

 

[BrunoMars420]

You think the U.S. green lit the attack in Iran?

Based on what? Is there some logic or reporting you could share supporting that?

Haniyeh killing in Iran risks dragging US into war it says it doesn’t want​

US publicly states its goals are ceasefire in Gaza and regional de-escalation, but its ally Israel makes that difficult.​

Speaking on Monday, two days after Israel blamed Lebanon’s Hezbollah for the attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, White House official John Kirby reiterated US support for Israel, but emphasised that Washington still wanted regional de-escalation.

“We believe that there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby said, as thoughts turned to what Israel’s next move would be, and whether it would trigger a long-feared all-out regional war.

The United States has publicly stated that it does not want this eventuality, even as it sent forces to the Middle East following the October 7 attack on Israel, and the beginning of the war on Gaza, in a show of support for Tel Aviv.

The Middle East, and the wider world, has held its breath on several occasions since then, most notably when Israel killed two Iranian generals at Tehran’s consulate in Damascus in April, followed by a telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel.

At the time, reports indicated that the US had worked to hold back Israel from escalating and to also keep Israel from launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Meanwhile, the US has been one of the countries mediating a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although that looks to have encountered several stumbling blocks over the past few months.

Now, after the brazen assassination of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – which the Palestinian group and Iran blame on Israel – and the killing of Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, all within a few hours, the US’s twin objectives of a ceasefire and regional de-escalation look like they are in tatters.

Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group’s US Program, told Al Jazeera that regional de-escalation would ultimately emerge after a ceasefire in Gaza, and that, without one, the potential for an expanded conflict drawing in US forces stationed in the region was always present.

“If you want to avoid further escalation in the region, including an escalation that involves US troops, you’re going to need to secure a ceasefire in Gaza. That’s what is necessary to calm things down with the Houthis [in Yemen], with Hezbollah, and continue the lull in attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq,” Finucane said.

But, with the recent attacks, Finucane believes that the current prospects for a US-brokered ceasefire have been complicated, if not derailed, in the short term.

You really think that Israel is not speaking with the US on what they plan on doing?

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

Shocked

What, you thought I would switch to Trump after all this time?

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

What, you thought I would switch to Trump after all this time?

I thought you might have been one to say "**** them all, no vote".

 

[seminole97]

You really think that Israel is not speaking with the US on what they plan on doing?

I do not think the U.S. provided a green light to the murder in Iran.

I think the WH wants a ceasefire, and I think (maybe I’m wrong, but I admit I can’t even see the logic of it, that’s why I asked) the attacks in Lebanon and Iran make that more remote before the election.

 

[Formerly Rockymtnole]

I thought you might have been one to say "**** them all, no vote".

Believe me, I can envision many better options.

But I’m in the Anyone But Trump camp.