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My Jan 19 Projections: MD 15-3, Iowa 14-4, Purdue 13-5, IU 11-7

So tell us, who does Maryland lose to? If you have Iowa at 15-3, you have Maryland at 14-4 or worse.

I don't have a prediction for Maryland. I just know Iowa is going to be hard pressed to lose any individual game the rest of the way and has to be the overwhelming favorite to win the conference.

And yes, they beat Illinois handily as predicted.
 
So do you have the guts to share your opinion on Iowa's next 2 losses or do you have no opinion and rely on Ken's analytics?

You obviously know nothing about the Illinois and Iowa rivalry, especially when the game is in Champaignn/Urbana. If you did, you would post more intelligently.

I obviously know nothing.
 
Maryland is in good position, but I'd rather have Iowa's situation. Congratulations on being #1 in Gary Parrish's CBS poll.
 
I obviously know nothing.

i agree; you know nothing because you never had the balls or the INTELLIGENCE to give your game by game predictions.

Iowa still has to win at OSU, which I have them winning so 14-4 is still a possibility; again, i hope I am wrong but i laid it all out there.

you, on the other hand, did not lay anything out there with the exception of picking on ONE loss that I had for Iowa.

I am sure i am not the first to say this to you but the way you behave is the way a coward behaves.
 
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i agree; you know nothing because you never had the balls or the INTELLIGENCE to give your game by game predictions.

Iowa still has to win at OSU, which I have them winning so 14-4 is still a possibility; again, i hope I am wrong but i laid it all out there.

you, on the other hand, did not lay anything out there with the exception of picking on ONE loss that I had for Iowa.

LMAO

I'm into overall probabilities, not game by game predictions. I just chose one of your individual predictions to call out because I thought it was so unlikely, which turned out to be exactly correct on my part. The fact that the margin of victory was exactly what I predicted the spread would be is just lucky, however.

Focusing too much on each individual game prediction can lead you astray from an accurate overall season projection. I look at the big picture.

As for "laying it out there", I was fairly crystal clear in my prediction that 15-3 was the most likely record but 16-2 more likely than 14-4. Not sure how much more precise you'd like it to be.
 
MD has to play Wisconsin and @ Indiana, @ Purdue and @ Minnesota not to mention Michigan who they lost to already and Hill should be back by then.

I doubt that MD will have this for a advantage vs Purdue 24-27 ft's to Purdues 2-5 ft's in a 72-61 win
@ you want predicted losses for MD where here 2 to give MD 4 losses.

@ Purdue and @ Indiana, even home games vs Wisconsin is no Gimme with the way they are playing, @ Minnesota could be interesting, will they give up or will they be motivated to be the spoiler.
 
I thought Iowa would stumble when we did not expect it.

Well, they proved me wrong vs Illinois. I hope they don't prove me wrong vs Ohio State, where I have them winning.

Iowa has never won more than 14 games in a regular season. This year might just be the year.


Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU...............CORRECT
W @Neb................CORRECT
W Purdue.............. CORRECT
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT

W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN.....................CORRECT
W NEB.......................CORRECT
L @MD.......................CORRECT
W Mich State..............CORRECT
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.........,,....CORRECT
W N'w.........,,...CORRECT
L @WI.....,,.......CORRECT
W MN...............CORRECT
L @MICH..........INCORRECT (12-6 is new projection, but finishing in 4th still stands)
W @PSU...........INCORRECT (back to original 11-7 projection)
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
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Maryland (14-4)

W Wisconsin
W @Minnesota
W MICH
L @Purdue
W ILL
L @IU





IOWA (16-2)

W @ILL
W @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
L @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


L Mich State
W @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI


Indiana (12-6)

L IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
W @ILL
L @IOWA
W MD
 
LMAO

I'm into overall probabilities, not game by game predictions. I just chose one of your individual predictions to call out because I thought it was so unlikely, which turned out to be exactly correct on my part. The fact that the margin of victory was exactly what I predicted the spread would be is just lucky, however.

Focusing too much on each individual game prediction can lead you astray from an accurate overall season projection. I look at the big picture.

As for "laying it out there", I was fairly crystal clear in my prediction that 15-3 was the most likely record but 16-2 more likely than 14-4. Not sure how much more precise you'd like it to be.

You are a waste of time. That's all i have to say.
 
I am being conservative with my 14-4 prediction. On the road, a lot can happen. The opponent gets hot from 3, and Iowa goes cold, for example. IU hit 19 three's last night at home; that's hard to overcome. Furthermore, historically, Champaign/Urbana is a tough place to play for Iowa..

I hope I am wrong. I hope we go better than 14-4. But note: 14-4 has been our BEST EVER record in the B1G and its been 29 years since we accomplished that. It's not easy to do.

A historical perspective on the best Iowa B1G records:

14-4
in 1986-87
13-5 in 1978-79 and 1980-81
You do realize that nothing that has happened in past history has anything at all to do with this year's team. It may sound strange but before the start of every new season they erase all the points that were scored by the Hawks and their opponents and they start all over again.
 
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You do realize that nothing that has happened in past history has anything at all to do with this year's team. It may sound strange but before the start of every new season they erase all the points that were scored by the Hawks and their opponents and they start all over again.

Yet,

* I don't think its reasonable to assume Iowa is going to go 8-1 on the road in the B1G
.
* I expect Iowa to stumble at IU, at Michigan and I thought either at ILL (where i had them losing) or at OSU (where i have them winning).

* Playing at Illinois has historically been difficult for Iowa teams. Illinois was within 12 at the end, so it was not exactly a cake walk. Iowa still had to show up.

* The press has brought up how difficult it is to win at Illinois, so maybe we should look at history a little bit before we just assume IOWA is going to go on the road and beat everyone. For example, I found this bit without looking very hard: Iowa won its second game in a row in Champaign for the first time since the 1985-86 and ’86-87 seasons. It triumphed on the Illini’s court for just the third time in its last 25 trips there.

*Another tidbit from the press: They matched the 10-1 conference start of ’81-82 Iowa, which was the best beginning in the league slate since the ’69-70 team went 14-0.

Think about it. This team is off to its best conference start in 34 years. Nobody saw this coming.

* Purdue has lost at Illinois this season so it goes to show that a team can have an off night and lose at Illinois.

I still think 14-4 is where they end up. I hope I am wrong; I hope we get to 15-3 or better. I just think the law of averages and the games at IU (they are desperate now), at OSU and at Michigan catch up to Iowa. And I hope we don't come out flat and lose a clunker at home. I predicted game by game; as you can see, I have gotten most games right with the exception of Iowa/ILL and 2 of IU's games (IU is hard to figure out!). We will see what happens.
 
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you might want to check your predictions; that would put Iowa at 15-3, not 16-2 ;)


Maryland (14-4)

W Wisconsin
W @Minnesota
W MICH
L @Purdue
W ILL
L @IU





IOWA (16-2)

W @ILL
W @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
L @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


L Mich State
W @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI


Indiana (12-6)

L IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
W @ILL
L @IOWA
W MD
 
For what its worth, here is Jeff Sagarin’s computer predictor to simulate the rest of the season.

Here is how that looks, along with the seeding for the B1G Tournament:

1. Iowa (16 – 2)
2. Indiana (15 – 3)
3. Maryland (14 – 4)
4. Purdue (13 – 5) Defeated Michigan State based on head-to-head record.
5. Michigan State (13 – 5) Lost to Purdue based on head-to-head record.
6. Wisconsin (10 – 8) Defeated Michigan based on head-to-head record.
7. Michigan (10 – 8) Lost to Wisconsin based on head-to-head record.
8. Ohio State (8 – 10) Defeated Northwestern and Nebraska based on round-robin record.
9. Northwestern (8 – 10) Defeated Nebraska and lost to Ohio State based on round-robin record.
10. Nebraska (8 – 10) Lost to Ohio State and Northwestern based on round-robin record.
11. Illinois (5 – 13)
12. Penn State (4 – 14)
13. Minnesota (2 – 16)
14. Rutgers (0 – 18)
 
I thought Iowa would stumble when we did not expect it.

Well, they proved me wrong vs Illinois. I hope they don't prove me wrong vs Ohio State, where I have them winning.

Iowa has never won more than 14 games in a regular season. This year might just be the year.


Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU...............CORRECT
W @Neb................CORRECT
W Purdue.............. CORRECT
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT

W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN.....................CORRECT
W NEB.......................CORRECT
L @MD.......................CORRECT
W Mich State
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.........,,....CORRECT
W N'w.........,,...CORRECT
L @WI.....,,.......CORRECT
W MN...............CORRECT
L @MICH..........INCORRECT (12-6 is new projection, but finishing in 4th still stands)
W @PSU...........INCORRECT (back to original 11-7 projection)
W IOWA
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD

W.T.F. is this color coding supposed to represent?!
 
Is the B1G race down to two teams?

Is Iowa on its way to at least a tie for the B1G regular season championship? A couple Cedar Rapids Gazette reporters think so!

Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin are all 3 games out with 7 games to go. IU has a brutal schedule in comparison to Iowa and Maryland.

So, it appears to be down to Iowa and Maryland.

From a Feb 10, 2016 "On Iowa Podcast," Marc Morehouse and Scott Dochterman made their predictions::

Iowa (Currently 10-1):

Scott has them finishing at 16-2 (loss at IU)

Marc has Iowa also losing at OSU, making them 15-3


Maryland (Currently 10-2):

Both Marc and Scott have them at 15-3 (loss at Pur)


Indiana (Currently 9-2):

Both Marc and Scott have them at 12-6 (losses at MSU, Pur, at IA, MD)
 
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Yet,

* I don't think its reasonable to assume Iowa is going to go 8-1 on the road in the B1G
.
* I expect Iowa to stumble at IU, at Michigan and I thought either at ILL (where i had them losing) or at OSU (where i have them winning).

* Playing at Illinois has historically been difficult for Iowa teams. Illinois was within 12 at the end, so it was not exactly a cake walk. Iowa still had to show up.

* The press has brought up how difficult it is to win at Illinois, so maybe we should look at history a little bit before we just assume IOWA is going to go on the road and beat everyone. For example, I found this bit without looking very hard: Iowa won its second game in a row in Champaign for the first time since the 1985-86 and ’86-87 seasons. It triumphed on the Illini’s court for just the third time in its last 25 trips there.

*Another tidbit from the press: They matched the 10-1 conference start of ’81-82 Iowa, which was the best beginning in the league slate since the ’69-70 team went 14-0.

Think about it. This team is off to its best conference start in 34 years. Nobody saw this coming.

* Purdue has lost at Illinois this season so it goes to show that a team can have an off night and lose at Illinois.

I still think 14-4 is where they end up. I hope I am wrong; I hope we get to 15-3 or better. I just think the law of averages and the games at IU (they are desperate now), at OSU and at Michigan catch up to Iowa. And I hope we don't come out flat and lose a clunker at home. I predicted game by game; as you can see, I have gotten most games right with the exception of Iowa/ILL and 2 of IU's games (IU is hard to figure out!). We will see what happens.

And, nothing that you presented has any effect on whether Iowa wins THIS YEAR . You have already proved that I wouldn't take your betting tips. Anyone can have an off night and when that happens you can not attribute that to last season . If Iowa finishes 14-4 or even 15-3 and doesn't at least tie for the regular season title, there will be a lot of disappointed fans, coaches and players. And, I'll be pointing my finger at you.
 
And, nothing that you presented has any effect on whether Iowa wins THIS YEAR . You have already proved that I wouldn't take your betting tips. Anyone can have an off night and when that happens you can not attribute that to last season . If Iowa finishes 14-4 or even 15-3 and doesn't at least tie for the regular season title, there will be a lot of disappointed fans, coaches and players. And, I'll be pointing my finger at you.

There's a whole lot of stupid in this post.
 
Unfortunately, I was right about Iowa at Indiana.

I think the B1G title is down to Iowa and Maryland. No way IU keeps pace.


Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU...............CORRECT
W @Neb................CORRECT
W Purdue.............. CORRECT
W WI
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT

W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU....................CORRECT
W MN
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN.....................CORRECT
W NEB.......................CORRECT
L @MD.......................CORRECT
W Mich State..............CORRECT
L @MICH
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.........,,....CORRECT
W N'w.........,,...CORRECT
L @WI.....,,.......CORRECT
W MN...............CORRECT
L @MICH..........INCORRECT (12-6 is new projection, but finishing in 4th still stands)
W @PSU...........INCORRECT (back to original 11-7 projection)
W IOWA............CORRECT
L @Mich St
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
So much for Maryland winning their remaining conference games. Iowa would be a deserving champion if y'all can hold on. For my newspaper column this week, I've got the seeds as follows (per the end of the regular season, not including the league tournaments).

East - UNC, Villanova, Michigan St., Iowa St.
South - Iowa, West Virginia, Oregon, Miami
Midwest - Kansas, Virginia, Xavier, Arizona
West - Oklahoma, Maryland, Notre Dame, Kentucky
 
I still have no idea what your color coding is supposed to represent. Care to enlighten me?

Look at the orig post!


In red, I have highlighted the top 4 teams on the top 4's remaining schedule. NOTE: MD and IU still have to go to Mich State and Purdue hosts Mich State.

GREEN is Mich State
 
I think the B1G title is down to Iowa and Maryland. No way IU keeps pace.


Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU...............CORRECT
W @Neb................CORRECT
W Purdue.............. CORRECT
W WI.....................INCORRECT.....14-4 is new projection
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT
W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT(15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU....................CORRECT
W MN....................CORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN.....................CORRECT
W NEB.......................CORRECT
L @MD.......................CORRECT
W Mich State..............CORRECT
L @MICH...................CORRECT
W N'w
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.........,,....CORRECT
W N'w.........,,...CORRECT
L @WI.....,,.......CORRECT
W MN...............CORRECT
L @MICH..........INCORRECT(12-6 is new projection, but finishing in 4th still stands)
W @PSU...........INCORRECT (back to original 11-7 projection)
W IOWA............CORRECT
L @Mich St.......CORRECT (11-7 projection very likely)
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
I think the B1G title is down to Iowa and Maryland. No way IU keeps pace.


Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU...............CORRECT
W @Neb................CORRECT
W Purdue.............. CORRECT
W WI.....................INCORRECT.....14-4 is new projection
W @MN
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT
W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT(15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU....................CORRECT
W MN....................CORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
W @PSU
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN.....................CORRECT
W NEB.......................CORRECT
L @MD.......................CORRECT
W Mich State..............CORRECT
L @MICH...................CORRECT
W N'w........................CORRECT
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.........,,....CORRECT
W N'w.........,,...CORRECT
L @WI.....,,.......CORRECT
W MN...............CORRECT
L @MICH..........INCORRECT(12-6 is new projection, but finishing in 4th still stands)
W @PSU...........INCORRECT (back to original 11-7 projection)
W IOWA............CORRECT
L @Mich St.......CORRECT (11-7 projection very likely)
W NEB
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
Dang it. I thought we would have a bad loss, just got the wrong game. Iowa is now 11-3. Unfortunately, my 14-4 prediction made on Jan 19 is very much in play.


IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT
W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT(15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU....................CORRECT
W MN....................CORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
W @PSU...............INCORRECT (BACK TO MY 14-4 projection)

W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH
 
We are losing 2 or 3 more. Hate to say it but they are cooked. No defense and other teams have figured out how to keep our offense from going off on them.
 
Iowa's surprising loss gives Maryland a chance to win a tie-breaker. We'll see if the Terps can seize the opportunity. I certainly hope so, but I suspect the Hawkeyes will bounce back.
 
Iowa's surprising loss gives Maryland a chance to win a tie-breaker. We'll see if the Terps can seize the opportunity. I certainly hope so, but I suspect the Hawkeyes will bounce back.

It's the terps title to lose now. They would have to collapse, and I don't see that happening with the caliber of talent on that team. Iowa goes 2-2 over the final four games. No way the terps finish with fewer than 14 wins in conference play.
 
I was referring to the #1 seed in the conference tournament. If Iowa and Maryland finish with the same record, the Terps would get the top spot, though they would be co-champs. But you knew that. And now you know that I do too.
 
I was referring to the #1 seed in the conference tournament. If Iowa and Maryland finish with the same record, the Terps would get the top spot, though they would be co-champs. But you knew that. And now you know that I do too.
Until we see the final season results who says being 1 will be better?
Would you rather be 1 and play MSU or be 2 and play IND? Of course assuming 1&2 both get a share of the title.
 
As far as the Terps are concerned, good grief! I thought the Wisconsin game was bad, and now this. I wonder if Gary Williams would consider coming out of retirement. Does Juan Dixon have any more eligibility?

Don't give up on your team. I like their chances to take the regular-season title.
 
I still think the B1G title is down to Iowa and Maryland. No way IU keeps pace.


Maryland (15-3)

W N'w..................CORRECT
L @Mich St...........CORRECT
W iowa..................CORRECT
W @OSU...............CORRECT
W @Neb................CORRECT
W Purdue.............. CORRECT
W WI.....................INCORRECT.....14-4 is new projection
W @MN................ INCORRECT.....13-5 is new projection
W MICH
L @purdue
W ILL
W @IU




IOWA (14-4)

W @ Rutgers.........CORRECT
W vs Purdue..........CORRECT
L @ MD.................CORRECT
W vs N'w...............CORRECT
W vs PSU..............CORRECT
L @ILL...................INCORRECT(15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
L @IU....................CORRECT
W MN....................CORRECT (15-3 and at least a tie for the B1G championship is very much in play)
W @PSU...............INCORRECT (back to original 14-4 projection)
W WI
W @OSU
W IU
L @MICH



Purdue (13-5)


W OSU.......................CORRECT
L @Iowa.....................CORRECT
W @MN.....................CORRECT
W NEB.......................CORRECT
L @MD.......................CORRECT
W Mich State..............CORRECT
L @MICH...................CORRECT
W N'w........................CORRECT
W @IU
W MD
W @Neb
W WI

Indiana (11-7)

W ILL.........,,....CORRECT
W N'w.........,,...CORRECT
L @WI.....,,.......CORRECT
W MN...............CORRECT
L @MICH..........INCORRECT(12-6 is new projection, but finishing in 4th still stands)
W @PSU...........INCORRECT (back to original 11-7 projection)
W IOWA............CORRECT
L @Mich St.......CORRECT (11-7 projection very likely)
W NEB..............CORRECT
L Purdue
L @ILL
L @IOWA
L MD
 
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