www.natesilver.net
Pittsburgh and Philly says, hold on, we aren't going anywhere, and it ain't toward Corrupt Filthy DON. Same with Erie, Harrisburg and Scranton and the 1000s of educated women.
Its really very simple, if Philly turns out big, the dems do well. They did not turn out in 2000, for Clinton, as everyone thought she had it in the bag.
He's in the bag for Trump. His forecast makes no sense otherwise.
I can’t think of another election where I had less of a feel for the outcome. And frankly, feels eerily like 2016 where I felt she should win, but I couldn’t shake that feeling about Trump…
Conservatives are going to stay home to help usher in Marxist policies with Kamala?
There is little doubt Harris will win the popular vote by a comfortable margin. This point to the real flaw in the American election system…Minority Presidents making permanent and long term appointments (Supreme Court for example) that really do not reflect the will and the desires of the nation. Check out the SC appointments made since 2000 by Republican Presidents vs. appointments made by Dem Presidents…Republicans have won only 1 popular election (2004) since 1992, and they have made the vast majority of the SC nominations/appointments. It’s a major reason for the split that has affected this nation the past 20 years.
If you can't win the popular vote, no way you should be able to select a SCOTUS.
It will make NO difference.
9/10 is my mom’s birthday…she was born in 1920 and a great Roosevelt Democrat…if she has her way, Trump will shat his pants on stage that evening. Much to her delight.
No, reasonable conservatives are going to sit out this year and hold their noses through a 4 year term of Harris in hopes that in 2028 their party can put up a better candidate who has not made dictatorial statements, isn't a felon and isn't out to enrich himself at the expense of our democracy.
His forecast makes perfect sense if you aren’t delusional. Harris’s popular vote lead is down to 3%. Florida and Ohio are no longer toss-up states but are solid red. A significant number of Trump voters won’t admit it, even in an anonymous poll, which is why he always does better than the polls predict.
Public polls are mainly about perception shaping. A lot of people want to be in the herd, and want to know where the herd is.
I think this is really the key point - which candidate really gets voters to the poll, and in which direction? Evangelicals aren’t voting Harris, but how many of them have been turned off by Trump’s comments regarding abortion and will they be as motivated to get out the vote? How many people will be particularly motivated to go vote for the candidate under 70? I can’t imagine there are many people sitting around still debating whether to vote Harris or Trump.
Good point. Only counter I have is that debate becomes less consequential if Trump wins in November after all, as he was favored to do before that debate.
It’s an election year…I promise you she is not resting comfortably! She was a special lady. And one helluva Democrat.
The spookiest bit in all of this is trying to accurately gauge Trump support. It's been underestimated the past two elections. We're left only to hope that they've figured it out this time around. (and from what I can assess, it's hard to have confidence that this has been achieved)
Do you have more confidence in Harris winning in November, or UIowa averaging 21 points a game this football season?
