Agree to an extent. When trumps been at rallies, the crowds just don’t seem as enthused as they’ve been in the past. It’s telling to me that polls show far more movement for Harris than they do for Trump.
The change in the polls I don't think reflects anything about Trump, only how wildly unpopular Joe Biden is and the drag he was on the democrats.
Remember, Joe Biden is out because basically everyone that mattered decided that he literally could not beat Trump. He was pushed out in an unprecedented way because of how hopeless his chances were believed to be.
I'm very unconvinced that the switch from Biden to Harris (a heretofore extremely unpopular candidate and VP) pushes the Democrats from "No Chance" to "Commanding Lead".
It's more like it pushed it from "No Chance" to "In Play" in my opinion. All the drumbeat of unbridled joy and enthusiasm is just noise.
She's essentially TIED with the most loathed and shameful and examined candidate in American history. And that's off a convention bounce, zero press scrutiny, fawning media cheerleading, massive relief she's not Biden, not having to reveal let alone defend policy positions, or even answering questions from the press. You could not be given a smoother runway or more support and less friction than the runway Kamala has had for weeks...and she's essentially
tied.
For all the talk of Trump's low ceiling, don't forget about his high floor. At this point, all his negatives are baked in. There's nothing more he can do or say to hurt him. It's not guaranteed, but it's very possible that this is as low as Trump can go, and has high as Kamala can go.
Now, maybe Kamala is AWESOME tonight in the debate, and I'll feel stronger about her case. She's got much more money and better on the ground operations for sure.
But unless she has the political night of her life, I don't see my elevating her higher than "could win."
