NBA Draft: Should the 8th worst team be picking #1? Should the 11th be picking 4th?

[Franisdaman]

Sorta off topic, but there have been several discussions on Tyler Cook pursuing his dream of getting drafted and on whether the 1 and done is a good thing for college basketball.

Any NBA fans outs there where your team was in last night's NBA Draft Lottery?

Were you happy with the results?

I am a Wolves fan, and like every time they have been in the damn Lottery, their pick got worse.

This year the NBA made it harder for the worst team to get the #1 pick; they are trying to discourage tanking. The Knicks, by far the worst team/franchise in the NBA, ended up with the #3 pick.

The Suns, who had the 2nd worst record in the NBA, ended up with the #6 pick.

The 8th worst team, in theory, should get the 8th pick. Instead, they got the #1 pick.

The Lakers, in theory, should have gotten the 11th pick; instead they got the 4th pick.

Here are the results of the Lottery:

First # listed by the team: Ranking of the Worst Teams
Second # by the team: Draft Pick as a result of the Lottery

08/01 Pelicans
09/02 Grizzlies
01/03 Knicks
11/04 Lakers
03/05 Cavs
02/06 Suns
04/07 Bulls
05/08 Hawks
06/09 Wizards
07/10 Mavs (now Hawk's pick)
10/11 Wolves
14/12 Hornets
12/13 Heat
13/14 Kings (now Boston's pick)

 

[Hawk_4shur]

It's crucial for the NBA to discourage "tanking". This is how they decided to address it - I don't know if there are other ways.

It's extra tough in basketball, when it seems there are usually one or two guys that are total game changers, and everyone wants them (e.g. Zion).

 

[MepoDawg#]

What are other options that discourage tanking if you can prove a team is tanking.

 

[Franisdaman]

It's crucial for the NBA to discourage "tanking". This is how they decided to address it - I don't know if there are other ways.

It's extra tough in basketball, when it seems there are usually one or two guys that are total game changers, and everyone wants them (e.g. Zion).

Yeah, after Zion, there is a big drop off, imo.

Think of the tickets and jerseys New Orleans will be able to sell now that Zion is coming.

After landing the #1 pick, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook dropped the Pelicans' 2019-20 NBA title odds from an astronomical 300-1 to 25-1. See this article for more info on that development: https://bleacherreport.com/articles...icans-improve-to-25-1-after-landing-no-1-pick

Talk about a game changer in terms of Pelican team revenue & winning more games.

If New York or LA had won the Lottery, there probably would have been all kinds of conspiracy theories. LOL

 

[HawkGem11]

Sorta off topic, but there have been several discussions on Tyler Cook pursuing his dream of getting drafted and on whether the 1 and done is a good thing for college basketball.

Any NBA fans outs there where your team was in last night's NBA Draft Lottery?

Were you happy with the results?

I am a Wolves fan, and like every time they have been in the damn Lottery, their pick got worse.

This year the NBA made it harder for the worst team to get the #1 pick; they are trying to discourage tanking. The Knicks, by far the worst team/franchise in the NBA, ended up with the #3 pick.

The Suns, who had the 2nd worst record in the NBA, ended up with the #6 pick.

The 8th worst team, in theory, should get the 8th pick. Instead, they got the #1 pick.

The Lakers, in theory, should have gotten the 11th pick; instead they got the 4th pick.

Here are the results of the Lottery:

First # listed by the team: Ranking of the Worst Teams
Second # by the team: Draft Pick as a result of the Lottery

08/01 Pelicans
09/02 Grizzlies
01/03 Knicks
11/04 Lakers
03/05 Cavs
02/06 Suns
04/07 Bulls
05/08 Hawks
06/09 Wizards
07/10 Mavs (now Hawk's pick)
10/11 Wolves
14/12 Hornets
12/13 Heat
13/14 Kings (now Boston's pick)

I think the NBA draft "lottery" is a joke of epic proportions. Just a beyond stupid way to do it end of story, this is one way to keep crappy franchises crappy where not players will want to play for...

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I think the NBA draft "lottery" is a joke of epic proportions. Just a beyond stupid way to do it end of story, this is one way to keep crappy franchises crappy where not players will want to play for...

What would you suggest?

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

What would you suggest?

First of all, there shouldn't be 14 teams in the mix. I'd pare that down to the worst 8. Then give them these odds:

#1 18%
#2 16%
#3 14%
#4 12%
#5-8 10%

 

[IowaPride95]

Yeah, after Zion, there is a big drop off, imo.

Think of the tickets and jerseys New Orleans will be able to sell now that Zion is coming.

I think I saw that New Orleans' chances of winning the 2020 NBA title went from 300-1 to 25-1.

Talk about a game changer in terms of revenue & winning more games.

If New York or LA had won the Lottery, there probably would have been all kinds of conspiracy theories. LOL

Actually, I think the big drop off is after Zion, Ja and Barrett. The top 3 teams should be very happy.

 

[Run&Blade]

Losing to be losing shouldn’t be rewarded

Last night was a good compromise from old way.

 

[Bro D]

Probably not feasible but I think it'd be cool if the bottom 8 teams play each other in a single elimination tournament for the first overall pick. If you have a better record, you get the home game.

It allows you to tank... but if you tank hard, you're not going to get a home game. Brings up the level of play for the bottom feeders throughout the course of the season. Will never happen because teams trade picks but could be a pretty cool event

 

[DodgerHawki]

Losing to be losing shouldn’t be rewarded

Last night was a good compromise from old way.

Yeah there isn't a real good answer. The concept of a draft in any sport incentivizes losing. And that is never good in professional sports. Outside of aboloshing the draft, there is only so much that can be done. It's better now that the worst team doesn't automatically get the No. 1 pick, but teams will still race to the bottom to improve their odds of getting in top 1 or 2.

 

[TheTruthTheWholeTruth]

I think the NBA draft "lottery" is a joke of epic proportions. Just a beyond stupid way to do it end of story, this is one way to keep crappy franchises crappy where not players will want to play for...

I’m trying to follow what you’re saying but it really
Isn’t clear.

 

[Herky T Hawk]

Easy solution with 14 teams in the lottery. Break them up into 3 batches.

5 worst teams all have 20% odds with the first 5 picks. Next 5 worst get 20% odds with picks 6-10. Last 4 out of the playoffs get 25% odds at picks 11-14.

That prevents a team close to the playoffs from getting one of the elite picks. It also ensures that the truly horrible teams get at least a top 5 pick. But just because you intentionally tank doesn't mean you're going to get one of the first 2 or 3 picks. You're guaranteed to rise or fall no further than 4 spots. As opposed to the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers making huge jumps last night.

My method would have ended up something like this assuming the same order of teams were picked (even though the odds would have been different).
01/01 Knicks
03/02 Cavs
02/03 Suns
04/04 Bulls
05/05 Hawks
08/06 Pelicans
09/07 Grizzlies
06/08 Wizards
07/09 Mavs (now Hawk's pick)
10/10 Wolves
11/11 Lakers
14/12 Hornets
12/13 Heat
13/14 Kings (now Boston's pick)

 

[Auger]

The current state of the NBA makes things nearly impossible for about 75% of NBA franchises to win the Championship. You need a top 10 player on your team and the top 10 players 90% off the time go to big market teams with a few exceptions. One being if that big name player has some sort of personal connection to the small market team (Lebron/Cavs). Now that teams like the Lakers can go from 13 to 4 in the NBA draft it makes things even harder for teams like the T-Wolves or Jazz. In the NFL and MLB your small market team still has a realistic shot every blue moon (Royals being a perfect example in MLB).

 

[Hawk_4shur]

First of all, there shouldn't be 14 teams in the mix. I'd pare that down to the worst 8. Then give them these odds:

#1 18%
#2 16%
#3 14%
#4 12%
#5-8 10%

This sounds pretty good. #9 and #10 might tank to get into the pool I suppose.

 

[anon_gjzkhykcp9iuj]

Yes. It is about percentages. Just because NY had the highest%, it was still only 14%. Same for other teams, nobody with more than 14%, and then it is a matter of getting the lucky pick. If teams didn't purposely tank,.which is crap, we wouldn't be here in the first place.

 

[WhiteSoxClone]

Easy solution with 14 teams in the lottery. Break them up into 3 batches.

5 worst teams all have 20% odds with the first 5 picks. Next 5 worst get 20% odds with picks 6-10. Last 4 out of the playoffs get 25% odds at picks 11-14.

That prevents a team close to the playoffs from getting one of the elite picks. It also ensures that the truly horrible teams get at least a top 5 pick. But just because you intentionally tank doesn't mean you're going to get one of the first 2 or 3 picks. You're guaranteed to rise or fall no further than 4 spots. As opposed to the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers making huge jumps last night.

This just perpetuates the problem that currently the worst position to be in in the NBA is a team that is a borderline playoff team. That means that you don't have the talent to compete for championship, and you're unlikely to be able to secure the talent to put you over the hump. It will still result in teams tanking to get into that bottom 5. Baseball has the same problem right now. No one wants to be in the middle. You either need to be competing for championships, or you need to be rebuilding. But going .500 is a franchise's worst nightmare currently in both MLB and the NBA.

 

[HawkRugged17]

The draft should be reverse order of finish out of the playoffs, and then the rest of the playoff teams by record. In other words, worst record is last in the in the non-playoff portion while the team with the best record not in the playoffs getting the #1 pick. No tanking. Every team has to keep trying to win. Pretty simple.

This year ...

1) Sacramento, Charlotte, or Miami (some kind of tie breaker)
4) Lakers
5) Timberwolves
6) Memphis, NO, Dallas
etc.

 

[mtdew_fever]

Except that scenario makes it more beneficial for a team to miss the playoffs than being the #8 seed and get knockedout of the playoffs 1st rd.

The only thing that will work to avoid tanking is loss of revenue. How about of a team has below a .333 winning percentage, then a ticket holder can sell their tickets back to the team at full face value?

The draft should be reverse order of finish out of the playoffs, and then the rest of the playoff teams by record. In other words, worst record is last in the in the non-playoff portion while the team with the best record not in the playoffs getting the #1 pick. No tanking. Every team has to keep trying to win. Pretty simple.

This year ...

1) Sacramento, Charlotte, or Miami (some kind of tie breaker)
4) Lakers
5) Timberwolves
6) Memphis, NO, Dallas
etc.

 

[unoHawkeye]

Actually, I think the big drop off is after Zion, Ja and Barrett. The top 3 teams should be very happy.

I think it’s after Zion and Morant... and the Knicks have to be pissed with Barrett considering they were in line to get either of them and now have a lot lower trading power, or Barrett, who can’t shoot

 

[blhawk]

It is called a lottery, they are just making that as literal as possible I guees. I'm not saying tanking isn't real, but some teams are just awful whether they are trying or not. This system could keep some franchises in the perpetual dumpster if they don't get lucky

 

[HawkRugged17]

Except that scenario makes it more beneficial for a team to miss the playoffs than being the #8 seed and get knockedout of the playoffs 1st rd.

The only thing that will work to avoid tanking is loss of revenue. How about of a team has below a .333 winning percentage, then a ticket holder can sell their tickets back to the team at full face value?

And 3 teams were tied this year. So, still tiebreakers to get Zion. And, he goes to a better team than a really bad team. And, there isn't always a surefire #1 (for every Zion, there's an Anthony Bennett or Kwame Brown).

Or, if you really want to have fun, narrow it down to 2 teams with my scenario, and then the two teams play a game for the #1 pick. Winner gets the pick, loser is in the lottery (still weighted in reverse order).

 

[fivec61]

What would you suggest?

I would suggest lottery teams do not get any national tv revenue. Let them keep local but not national.

You want to tank? That will cost you about 83 million dollars per year of lost tv money.

Teams in playoffs get about 148 mill per yr in this setup instead of 83 million.

I would even go a step further and make all the lottery teams pool all local tv monies and divide them evenly between the 14 lottery clubs. This would negate inherent advantage of big markets having big local deals vs small markets smaller ones. Range runs from 120 mill or so down to 20 mill per year.

 

[fivec61]

And 3 teams were tied this year. So, still tiebreakers to get Zion. And, he goes to a better team than a really bad team. And, there isn't always a surefire #1 (for every Zion, there's an Anthony Bennett or Kwame Brown).

Or, if you really want to have fun, narrow it down to 2 teams with my scenario, and then the two teams play a game for the #1 pick. Winner gets the pick, loser is in the lottery (still weighted in reverse order).

some have suggested the 14th place team gets 1st pick and so on. A reverse order lottery. This would make teams play hard all year to be best record who does not make playoffs and so get 1st pick.

It would even be fun to let team 13 place and 14 place play a one game playoff for that first pick. 2019 would be Hornets vs Kings. Or do a bottom 4 single elim tournament adding Knicks Lakers.
Could you imagine interest in a Lakers Knicks game to decide who could get Williamson?

 

[Run&Blade]

some have suggested the 14th place team gets 1st pick and so on. A reverse order lottery. This would make teams play hard all year to be best record who does not make playoffs and so get 1st pick.

It would even be fun to let team 13 place and 14 place play a one game playoff for that first pick. 2019 would be Hornets vs Kings. Or do a bottom 4 single elim tournament adding Knicks Lakers.
Could you imagine interest in a Lakers Knicks game to decide who could get Williamson?

Teams would still tank, want to get blown out by Warriors first round of playoffs or get Zion?

It wouldn’t be season long tanking but the last couple weeks would be comical with teams trying to just miss playoffs.

I don’t think playing games for #1 pick would work. Current players on roster would be in no mood for that.

I think the format they did this year is good enough.

 

[David1979]

If I am a fan of a team that isn't good, I want them to tank. I don't understand this notion that you should discourage tanking. What options do most teams have in the NBA? You could win 30-40 games and not make the playoffs and be mired in mediocrity or try for the top pick in the draft to turn your fortunes around.

 

[Legend12]

I would suggest lottery teams do not get any national tv revenue. Let them keep local but not national.

You want to tank? That will cost you about 83 million dollars per year of lost tv money.

Teams in playoffs get about 148 mill per yr in this setup instead of 83 million.

I would even go a step further and make all the lottery teams pool all local tv monies and divide them evenly between the 14 lottery clubs. This would negate inherent advantage of big markets having big local deals vs small markets smaller ones. Range runs from 120 mill or so down to 20 mill per year.

lol

 

[ANYCHawk]

It's crucial for the NBA to discourage "tanking". This is how they decided to address it - I don't know if there are other ways.\.

Salary cap exceptions.

Look in all of sports you don't want to do rid of "tanking." Rebuilding is a natural part of sports and the easiest way to land high end talent is through the drafts. What you want to discourage is continuous tanking. A year or two ok, five years, not so much.

 

[HawkRugged17]

If I am a fan of a team that isn't good, I want them to tank. I don't understand this notion that you should discourage tanking. What options do most teams have in the NBA? You could win 30-40 games and not make the playoffs and be mired in mediocrity or try for the top pick in the draft to turn your fortunes around.

How many NBA games do you attend each year?

 

[David1979]

How many NBA games do you attend each year?

0

 

[HawkRugged17]

0

Yeah, fans paying money to go to games really enjoy the tanking. It's a great way to sell the game to people.

 

[David1979]

Yeah, fans paying money to go to games really enjoy the tanking. It's a great way to sell the game to people.

How is wining 30 games for 5 years in a row any better? Wouldn't it be better to try actually get a guy to make you better? There are very few destinations for superstar free agents and it is very hard to get a superstar at the end of the lottery. I would rather my team try to get Zion then try to get Rui Hachimura.

 

[HawkRugged17]

How is wining 30 games for 5 years in a row any better? Wouldn't it be better to try actually get a guy to make you better? There are very few destinations for superstar free agents and it is very hard to get a superstar at the end of the lottery. I would rather my team try to get Zion then try to get Rui Hachimura.

With the new lottery odds? How did that work out for the Knicks? or the Suns? Zion isn't the only path to success. It's just the best. All teams aren't going to get there. Draft better.

Do you remember who the best pick was from last year's draft? Dallas traded up to #3 to get Luka Doncic.

Best player in 2017 draft? Donovan Mitchell (#13).

2016 draft? Is Ben Simmons the best player? Or, is it Jamaal Murray (#7)?

2015 draft? Towns is probably best at #1, but still good players like Porzingus #4 and Booker #13.

It's not about the #1 pick in a lot of drafts. Again, look at the Eastern Conference playoff starting lineups. One player drafted in the Top 10 I believe (might be mistaken). And look no further than the 2009 draft:

1) Blake Griffin
2) Hasheem Thabeet
3) James Harden
4) Tyreke Evans
5) Ricky Rubio
6) Johnny Flynn
7) Steph Curry
8) Jordan Hill
9) DeMar DeRozan
10) Brandon Jennings

17) Jrue Holiday
46) Danny Green