NCAA Baseball Regionals/Super Regionals Thread

Alum-Ni

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Kopps is getting a little more generous of a zone, but the Hogs are a really, really solid team
 

Franisdaman

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Heaven, Iowa
Kopps is getting a little more generous of a zone, but the Hogs are a really, really solid team
Now you just need to win 3 in a row.

EDIT: Tomorrow's game times:


Loser's bracket game: 3pm ET
Regional Final, game #1: 9pm ET
Regional Final, game #2, if necessary (Monday)
 

Alum-Ni

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Huskers fall 5-1

Will face Rutgers Tech (NJIT) in an elimination game tomorrow
 

AuroraHawk

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From the "Searching For Silver Linings" category . . .

Can you imagine if (a) Iowa made a Regional and (b) Wallace prevailed over his opposing pitcher in game 1 . . . what the damage would have looked like if Iowa was facing a #1 and anything other than Bauman's A+ game showed up? Yesterday showed what the top seeds do to teams' No. 2 or lower pitchers.

While I certainly was hoping upon hope that Iowa qualified for a Regional selection, I don't think that it would have been particularly pretty in any game started by someone other than Wallace. Hell . . . it would have been awfully tempting to give Bauman the ball on Friday with the hope that Iowa beat the #2 seed (assuming that it received a #3 seed) so that Wallace could take the mound on Saturday.

I cannot even begin to imagine the carnage if Davitt or Irvine were on the mound with the way they were throwing late in the year. Would've likely been a rough go of things. The top teams would have feasted.
 
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From the "Searching For Silver Linings" category . . .

Can you imagine if (a) Iowa made a Regional and (b) Wallace prevailed over his opposing pitcher in game 1 . . . what the damage would have looked like if Iowa was facing a #1 and anything other than Bauman's A+ game showed up? Yesterday showed what the top seeds do to teams' No. 2 or lower pitchers.

While I certainly was hoping upon hope that Iowa qualified for a Regional selection, I don't think that it would have been particularly pretty in any game started by someone other than Wallace. Hell . . . it would have been awfully tempting to give Bauman the ball on Friday with the hope that Iowa beat the #2 seed (assuming that it received a #3 seed) so that Wallace could take the mound on Saturday.

I cannot even begin to imagine the carnage if Davitt or Irvine were on the mound with the way they were throwing late in the year. Would've likely been a rough go of things. The top teams would have feasted.

You have to start your #1 guy on Friday. When you get cute about that stuff it usually bites you. Heck, Arkansas didn’t start either of their top two starters vs NJIT and look what that turned into.

Could it have gotten ugly with Irvine or Davitt starting? Possibly...but they can throw quality games. See Irvine vs Rutgers or Davitt vs Nebraska the first time. You just throw who you think gives you the best chance and match up. It’s a hell of a lot easier to win a regional winning your first game. Virtually impossible if you lose the first game.
 

MitchLL

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And similar to the football team, some fans are saying they are getting screwed by officiating.

What a collection of whiny little bitches.
 
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Maryland also beat Charlotte 2-1, they’ll have to beat East Carolina twice.

Oregon State beat TCU. So another national seed is out.
 
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Ole Miss/Southern Miss on ESPNU is crazy. Still in the first inning...

Ole Miss takes a 4-0 lead in the top 1st, now it’s 7-4 Southen Miss and still in the bottom 1st.
 

Franisdaman

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Heaven, Iowa
Huskers win 5-3.....game 2 Monday

Who will be the starting pitchers tomorrow? Will Arkansas have an advantage there?

One thing is for sure: all the pressure is now on Arkansas. They are supposed to not only advance to the Super Regionals, they are supposed to win the CWS.
 
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Ya know, I want Nebraska to do well because I want the conference to do well. God damn though, some of their fans sure make it hard to do that specifically ones I personally know. With that said, this is where not having midweek games hurts teams from the conference, you get a chance to really get some guys work that normally wouldn’t on a weekend. Nebraska’s options are limited today. I’ve seen they may throw Povich some, but then he’d essentially be out til Sunday if they won?

Arkansas is limited too, they lost one of their weekend starters prior to the conference tournament? I’d be concerned about their offense, they’ve been quiet against Nebraska....too quiet actually which makes you think the big game is coming.
 

Alum-Ni

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Ya know, I want Nebraska to do well because I want the conference to do well. God damn though, some of their fans sure make it hard to do that specifically ones I personally know. With that said, this is where not having midweek games hurts teams from the conference, you get a chance to really get some guys work that normally wouldn’t on a weekend. Nebraska’s options are limited today. I’ve seen they may throw Povich some, but then he’d essentially be out til Sunday if they won?

Arkansas is limited too, they lost one of their weekend starters prior to the conference tournament? I’d be concerned about their offense, they’ve been quiet against Nebraska....too quiet actually which makes you think the big game is coming.
I think NU does throw Povich at some point for a few innings today.
 

Franisdaman

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Heaven, Iowa
I think NU does throw Povich at some point for a few innings today.

so, what are your pregame thoughts?

do the Huskers have enough pitching left for this game?

who is Arkansas starting? does he have any nasty pitches? I am sure the Nebraska video guys were busy last night gathering film on the potential Arkansas pitchers so that hitters can watch film this morning/during the day so that they know what to look for.

IMO, the pressure is all on Arkansas. They lose this game, there will be egg on a lot of faces, including the Selection Committee. There is no way the B1G Champion should have been sent to the Tournament's #1 overall seed.
 

Alum-Ni

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so, what are your pregame thoughts?

do the Huskers have enough pitching left for this game?

who is Arkansas starting? does he have any nasty pitches? I am sure the Nebraska video guys were busy last night gathering film on the potential Arkansas pitchers so that hitters can watch film this morning/during the day so that they know what to look for.

IMO, the pressure is all on Arkansas. They lose this game, there will be egg on a lot of faces, including the Selection Committee. There is no way the B1G Champion should have been sent to the Tournament's #1 overall seed.
Agree....all the pressure is on the Hogs. They seem to have been leaning on Kopps heavily as of late ..I'd expect to see quite a bit of him tonight
 

AuroraHawk

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B1G Baseball Summary:

  • #2 seed Nebraska (B1G champion) beats #3 Northeastern, loses to #1 seed/host/SEC Champion/NCAA #1 seed Arkansas, beats #4 seed NJIT and then beats Arkansas to force a one-and-done final game.
  • #3 seed Maryland (B1G runner-up) drops its first game to #2 seed Charlotte; wins an elimination game against #4 seed Norfolk State; wins an elimination game against #2 seed Charlotte and loses against the #1 seed/host (#16 seed overall) East Carolina.
  • #3 seed Michigan (B1G third place) loses to #2 seed UConn and loses to #4 seed CMU.

RPI Analysis:

Nebraska (42) beat Northeastern (30); lost to Arkansas (1); beat NJIT (116); beat Arkansas (1)

Maryland (59) lost to Charlotte (29); beat Norfolk State (260); beat Charlotte (29) and lost to E. Carolina (15)

Michigan (89) lost to UConn (27) and lost to CMU (48).

Conference overall record: 5-5
Conference record against Q1 teams: 3-4
Conference record against Q2 teams: 0-1
Conference record against Q3 teams: 1-0
Conference records against others: 1-0
Losses to teams ranked lower in RPI: 0
Wins over teams ranked lower in RPI: 2
Wins over teams ranked higher in RPI: 3
Losses to teams ranked higher in RPI: 5

ELO Analysis:

Nebraska (28) beat Northeastern (42); lost to Arkansas (1); beat NJIT (127); beat Arkansas (1)

Maryland (48) lost to Charlotte (55); beat Norfolk State (238); beat Charlotte (55) and lost to E. Carolina (34)

Michigan (89) lost to UConn (38) and lost to CMU (83).

Conference overall record: 5-5
Conference record against Q1 teams: 2-3
Conference record against Q2 teams: 1-2
Conference record against Q3 teams: 1-0
Conference records against others: 1-0
Losses to teams ranked lower in ELO: 2 (Michigan to CMU; Maryland to Charlotte)
Wins over teams ranked lower in ELO: 4
Wins over teams ranked higher in ELO: 1
Losses to teams ranked higher in ELO: 3

According to RPI, the B1G has somewhat over performed rankings. Nebraska going 2-1 against (#1 RPI Arkansas; #30 Northeastern) and Maryland going 1-1 against (#29 Charlotte) are the highlights. No head-to-head losses to teams ranked lower in RPI.

ELO Analysis isn't quite so "sunny." Nebraska still highlights the effort but, according to ELO, Maryland and Charlotte are practically equal (Maryland ranked higher). Michigan's loss to CMU isn't an ELO "shocker" (they were practically equal) but RPI liked CMU far more than ELO.

Turning attention to Final 4 In:

Alabama: loss to #17 NC State; win over unranked Rider; loss to #18 Louisiana Tech
Michigan: loss to #25 Charlotte; loss to unranked CMU
North Carolina: win over #21 UCLA; loss to #7 Texas Tech; loss to #21 UCLA
California Santa Barbara: win over #23 Oklahoma State; loss to #5 Arizona; win over #23 Oklahoma State and loss to #5 Arizona

Looking at results alone . . . it will be hard for teams like Indiana and Iowa to cry foul after the fact.

Yeah, Nebraska has more than held its own as the conference champ and Maryland moved past higher-seeded Charlotte to play the host/#1 seed E. Carolina. However, of the "Last 4 In," Michigan's results are clearly the worst. And, Michigan goes 0-2 in a Regional as the third place B1G team (including losing to a #4 seed), it isn't a particularly strong statement that either Iowa (1-3 head to head against Michigan) or Indiana (1-2 head to head against Michigan) should have been included in the field.

Couple that with how the other 3 teams of the "Last 4 In" fared - the other 3 teams all won at least one game and UNC and UCSB notched wins over ranked teams . . . very few people are going to be questioning whether Indiana or Iowa got the short end of the stick by being left out.

As a B1G fan, I'll be pulling for Nebraska to pull off the upset but I don't think that it will really change the big picture for this year. When all is said and done, the B1G's performance appears to have justified the committee's view of the B1G and only inviting 3 teams. Certainly not much, if any, of an argument that the B1G "deserved" 4 or 5 invitations. If anything, Michigan may have received preferential treatment after 2019 and due to fact that they are . . . of course . . . Michigan.
 

KyleHuesmann

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Michigan lost both and was done and Alabama beat Rider, who was a bid stealer. Still don’t believe either of them should have been in.

UNC finishes the season 28-27, so I’m still skeptical on the whole “they deserved to be in”
 
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AuroraHawk

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Michigan lost both and was done and Alabama beat Rider, who was a bid stealer. Still don’t believe either of them should have been in.

UNC finishes the season 28-27, so I’m still skeptical on the whole “they deserved to be in”

The point that I was trying to make regarding regarding UNC isn't whether they "deserved" to get a bid. I was simply comparing the performance of the last four teams that received at-large bids. UNC beat a ranked UCLA team to open that regional. Thus, at least UNC stepped up to the plate and showed that, at a minimum, it should have been in the discussion and only bolsters the pre-existing view of ACC baseball (i.e. even the .500 teams are competitive among the top 25 teams).

UCSB also stepped up to the plate by taking down a ranked Oklahoma State team - twice.

Your point on Alabama is a fair one. Rider was a "bid stealer." Its RPI was 58 before the tournament (likely artificially enhanced by its tournament win against Fairfield and that the MAAC was "conference only"). Alabama's sole tournament win didn't exactly knock anyone's socks off but . . . it posted a W.

Michigan lost 7-1 and 8-2. They weren't particularly competitive in either game. To your point, if Michigan didn't deserve to get in . . . the B1G is a two-bid league. Michigan's performance doesn't exactly scream to the Committee "hey . . . we need to give these B1G teams a longer look . . ."
 
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KyleHuesmann

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The point that I was trying to make regarding regarding UNC isn't whether they "deserved" to get a bid. I was simply comparing the performance of the last four teams that received at-large bids. UNC beat a ranked UCLA team to open that regional. Thus, at least UNC stepped up to the plate and showed that, at a minimum, it should have been in the discussion and only bolsters the pre-existing view of ACC baseball (i.e. even the .500 teams are competitive among the top 25 teams).

UCSB also stepped up to the plate by taking down a ranked Oklahoma State team - twice.

Your point on Alabama is a fair one. Rider was a "bid stealer." Its RPI was 58 before the tournament (likely artificially enhanced by its tournament win against Fairfield and that the MAAC was "conference only"). Alabama's sole tournament win didn't exactly knock anyone's socks off but . . . it posted a W.

Michigan lost 7-1 and 8-2. They weren't particularly competitive in either game. To your point, if Michigan didn't deserve to get in . . . the B1G is a two-bid league. Michigan's performance doesn't exactly scream to the Committee "hey . . . we need to give these B1G teams a longer look . . ."
But Nebraska and Maryland are both in regional finals. Iowa won went 5-4 vs them.

I am afraid Michigan losing makes people believe the Big Ten wasn’t good. Which is wrong.
 
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whatsup13579er

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Nebraska has played above their seed. Maryland played above their seed. Michigan laid a gigantic turd.
 

AuroraHawk

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Nebraska has played above their seed. Maryland played above their seed. Michigan laid a gigantic turd.

I'd nitpick a bit with this. While getting to a third game against Arkansas in a Regional is not the same as taking one game out of a three game set (Nebraska has played four games instead of two), I don't see a #2 taking a #1 seed to a final game as playing "above" their seed. Nebbie wins tonight and I'll agree. Arkansas wins tonight and I'll say that Nebraska pretty much played to the seeding.

Don't disagree on Maryland. They jumped past the #2 seed to get to the final.

Don't disagree on Michigan. Not competitive in either game. Pretty consistent with lackluster finish to B1G season.
 

AuroraHawk

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I am afraid Michigan losing makes people believe the Big Ten wasn’t good. Which is wrong.
I believe that is exactly the impression that will be left with those left to analyze the tournament results. Maybe "wasn't good" is too strong. More likely . . . "on par with Conference USA and Missouri Valley"

Results by conference thus far (from Baseball America):

American: 5-0 (1 team advanced to Super; 1 team still alive)
Big 12: 8-4
SEC: 17-9
Pac-12: 13-7
Big West: 5-3
ACC: 15-11
Conference USA: 8-7 (4 teams total; 2 still fighting to advance)
Big Ten: 5-5 (3 teams; 1 still fighting to advance)
Missouri Valley: 3-3 (2 teams; both still fighting to advance)
Big South: 2-3
ASUN: 2-4
Metro Atlantic: 2-4

8 teams have locked in berths to SuperRegionals (with seeding):
ACC (2) - Notre Dame (1) and NC State (2)
Big 12 (2) - Texas (1) and Texas Tech (1)
SEC (2) - Vanderbilt (1) and Tennessee (1)
Pac 12 (1) - Arizona (1)
American (1) - E. Carolina (1)

16 teams still alive (with seeding):
ACC (1) - Virginia (3)
SEC (4) - Arkansas (1), Miss St. (1), Ole Miss (1), LSU (3)
Pac 12 (3) - Oregon State (2), Stanford (1), Oregon (1)
American (1) - USF (4)
B1G (1) - Nebraska (2)
Conf USA (2) - So. Mississippi (2); Old Dominion (1)
Sun Belt (1) - South Alabama (3)
Missouri Valley (1) - Dallas Baptist (3)
Big South (1) - Campbell (3)
Big West (1) - UC Irvine (2)
 

AuroraHawk

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I am afraid Michigan losing makes people believe the Big Ten wasn’t good. Which is wrong.
B1G's reputation would have been enhanced if Michigan could have advanced to play ND in the regional final. In that case, at least an argument could be made that B1G teams were a tough "out" versus the better seeds. Nebraska has made that case. Maryland made a decent statement to that effect. Michigan spit the bit.