NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections (4/21)

[Alum-Ni]

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (4/21/21)

Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with Selection Monday under six weeks away.

www.baseballamerica.com

Fayetteville Regional
1. Arkansas
2. Nebraska
3. South Carolina-Upstate
4. Florida A&M

Knoxville Regional
1. Tennessee
2. Michigan
3. Western Carolina
4. Wright State

Fort Worth Regional
1. TCU
2. Oregon State
3. Iowa
4. Oral Roberts

Top 16 National Seeds
1. Arkansas
2. Vanderbilt
3. Texas
4. Louisville
5. Arizona
6. Mississippi State
7. East Carolina
8. Notre Dame
9. TCU
10. Oregon
11. Texas Tech
12. Tennessee
13. Mississippi
14. South Carolina
15. Louisiana Tech
16. Virginia Tech

Big Ten Teams In (3)
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska

Last Four In
San Diego
Florida Gulf Coast
Louisiana-Lafayette
Baylor

First Eight Out
Kentucky
Virginia
Indiana
Wichita State
North Carolina State
Ohio State
Virginia Commonwealth
Dallas Baptist

 

[Alum-Ni]

Projected Field Of 64: April 20 • D1Baseball

We released our first batch of projections a couple of weeks ago at the midseason mark. Much has changed in our latest NCAA tournament projections after Week Nine.

d1baseball.com

Fayetteville Regional
1. Arkansas
2. Nebraska
3. Wright State
4. Oral Roberts

Louisville Regional
1. Louisville
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Fairfield

Eugene Regional
1. Oregon
2. Gonzaga
3. Iowa
4. Fordham

South Bend Regional
1. Notre Dame
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Ball State

Last Five In
Alabama
Baylor
Tulane
San Diego
Louisiana-Lafayette

First Five Out
Kentucky
Creighton
North Carolina State
Dallas Baptist
Clemson

Top 16 National Seeds
1. Arkansas
2. Vanderbilt
3. TCU
4. Mississippi State
5. Oregon
6. Notre Dame
7. East Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Texas
10. Mississippi
11. Texas Tech
12. Louisiana Tech
13. Arizona
14. South Carolina
15. Louisville
16. Stanford

Big Ten Teams In (4)
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska

 

[KyleHuesmann]

I put together a little Excel chart of all the teams on the bubble.

Currently In
Team	Record	RPI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Charlotte	26-10	18	4-7	7-1	9-1	6-1
UC Santa Barbara	24-10	74	0-4	6-2	5-1	13-3
UC Irvine	22-11	51	2-5	0-0	3-0	17-6
North Carolina	18-16	55	6-8	8-8	0-0	4-0
UCLA	22-11	37	3-3	7-1	5-5	7-2
Arizona State	20-11	32	3-7	7-1	3-1	7-2
Iowa	15-10	40	2-3	5-5	5-2	3-0
Indiana	15-8	114	0-0	0-4	3-2	12-2
Baylor	24-12	48	1-5	8-4	7-0	8-3
Alabama	23-13	23	5-8	7-1	4-1	7-3
Louisiana	20-15	62	3-7	5-5	0-0	12-3
San Diego	21-8	68	0-0	4-4	3-1	14-3
Currently Out
Team	Record	RPI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tulane	17-13	76	1-5	5-3	4-3	7-2
Florida Gulf Coast	21-12	56	2-4	4-4	4-2	11-2
Kentucky	22-12	59	3-8	4-2	5-2	10-0
Creighton	11-7	46	3-0	2-4	0-0	6-3
NC State	16-13	64	2-10	9-2	4-1	1-0
Dallas Baptist	19-9	137	3-5	1-0	3-2	12-2
Clemson	15-18	75	3-11	7-6	4-0	1-1
Virginia	17-18	60	7-12	4-6	2-0	4-0
Wichita State	19-12	63	1-4	0-3	3-3	15-2
Ohio State	13-12	53	3-3	2-6	5-2	3-1
VCU	22-14	54	3-5	1-3	6-3	12-3
LSU	22-14	29	3-11	8-1	3-2	7-0
Duke	17-16	45	8-11	5-5	2-0	2-0
Kansas	21-15	57	7-5	3-7	1-0	10-3
Coastal Carolina	18-13	79	3-3	7-6	5-2	3-2
Texas A&M	22-17	90	5-9	4-2	2-5	11-1
Maryland	13-12	100	1-4	5-2	2-2	5-4
Southern Illinois	25-9	105	0-0	2-3	7-5	16-1
Kansas State	21-15	112	4-8	2-2	3-4	12-1

 

[Alum-Ni]

4/19 Baseball Bracketology Breakdown

www.collegesportsmadness.com

Here is another projection from "College Sports Madness"

Last Four In
North Carolina State
Charlotte
Baylor
UC-Irvine

First Four Out
UNLV
Iowa
Georgia Tech
North Carolina

Big Ten Teams In (2)
Michigan
Nebraska

Nashville Regional
1. Vanderbilt
2. Michigan
3. Rhode Island
4. Florida A&M

Eugene Regional
1. Oregon
2. Nebraska
3. Gonzaga
4. Central Michigan

Top 16 National Seeds
1. Vanderbilt
2. Arkansas
3. Texas
4. Mississippi State
5. Oregon
6. TCU
7. Texas Tech
8. Mississippi
9. Virginia Tech
10. Arizona
11. East Carolina
12. UCLA
13. Tennessee
14. Oklahoma State
15. Louisiana Tech
16. Old Dominion

 

[KyleHuesmann]

4/19 Baseball Bracketology Breakdown

www.collegesportsmadness.com

Here is another projection from "College Sports Madness"

Last Four In
North Carolina State
Charlotte
Baylor
UC-Irvine

First Four Out
UNLV
Iowa
Georgia Tech
North Carolina

Big Ten Teams In (2)
Michigan
Nebraska

Nashville Regional
1. Vanderbilt
2. Michigan
3. Rhode Island
4. Florida A&M

Eugene Regional
1. Oregon
2. Nebraska
3. Gonzaga
4. Central Michigan

Top 16 National Seeds
1. Vanderbilt
2. Arkansas
3. Texas
4. Mississippi State
5. Oregon
6. TCU
7. Texas Tech
8. Mississippi
9. Virginia Tech
10. Arizona
11. East Carolina
12. UCLA
13. Tennessee
14. Oklahoma State
15. Louisiana Tech
16. Old Dominion

Yeah that projection is bad. Rhode Island is 13-15 so they shouldn’t be in. Also Charlotte is 26-10 and ranked, so last 4 in is bad.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

4/19 Baseball Bracketology Breakdown

www.collegesportsmadness.com

Here is another projection from "College Sports Madness"

Last Four In
North Carolina State
Charlotte
Baylor
UC-Irvine

First Four Out
UNLV
Iowa
Georgia Tech
North Carolina

Big Ten Teams In (2)
Michigan
Nebraska

Nashville Regional
1. Vanderbilt
2. Michigan
3. Rhode Island
4. Florida A&M

Eugene Regional
1. Oregon
2. Nebraska
3. Gonzaga
4. Central Michigan

Top 16 National Seeds
1. Vanderbilt
2. Arkansas
3. Texas
4. Mississippi State
5. Oregon
6. TCU
7. Texas Tech
8. Mississippi
9. Virginia Tech
10. Arizona
11. East Carolina
12. UCLA
13. Tennessee
14. Oklahoma State
15. Louisiana Tech
16. Old Dominion

Yeah, Rhode Island is 13-15-1. They aren’t eligible with that record.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Article from Omaha paper, and RPI will definitely be in the mix unfortunately. The conference screwed our teams with the schedule and no conference tournament.

 

[BigOHawk]

So what was the final explanation for no post season Big 10 tourney? Being from Omaha, LOVED going to this, well, more so than last time when Iowa went 2 and BBQ and had 1 run in 2 game but that's beside the point!

 

[BigOHawk]

Projected Field Of 64: April 20 • D1Baseball

We released our first batch of projections a couple of weeks ago at the midseason mark. Much has changed in our latest NCAA tournament projections after Week Nine.

d1baseball.com

Fayetteville Regional
1. Arkansas
2. Nebraska
3. Wright State
4. Oral Roberts

Louisville Regional
1. Louisville
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Fairfield

Eugene Regional
1. Oregon
2. Gonzaga
3. Iowa
4. Fordham

South Bend Regional
1. Notre Dame
2. Michigan
3. Alabama
4. Ball State

Last Five In
Alabama
Baylor
Tulane
San Diego
Louisiana-Lafayette

First Five Out
Kentucky
Creighton
North Carolina State
Dallas Baptist
Clemson

Top 16 National Seeds
1. Arkansas
2. Vanderbilt
3. TCU
4. Mississippi State
5. Oregon
6. Notre Dame
7. East Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Texas
10. Mississippi
11. Texas Tech
12. Louisiana Tech
13. Arizona
14. South Carolina
15. Louisville
16. Stanford

Big Ten Teams In (4)
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Nebraska

I approve of this! Keep it up Hawks! Just think if Dreyer was healthy and pitching. What do we need this weekend, 2/4 or need 3/4?

 

[BigOHawk]

I put together a little Excel chart of all the teams on the bubble.

Currently In
Team	Record	RPI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Charlotte	26-10	18	4-7	7-1	9-1	6-1
UC Santa Barbara	24-10	74	0-4	6-2	5-1	13-3
UC Irvine	22-11	51	2-5	0-0	3-0	17-6
North Carolina	18-16	55	6-8	8-8	0-0	4-0
UCLA	22-11	37	3-3	7-1	5-5	7-2
Arizona State	20-11	32	3-7	7-1	3-1	7-2
Iowa	15-10	40	2-3	5-5	5-2	3-0
Indiana	15-8	114	0-0	0-4	3-2	12-2
Baylor	24-12	48	1-5	8-4	7-0	8-3
Alabama	23-13	23	5-8	7-1	4-1	7-3
Louisiana	20-15	62	3-7	5-5	0-0	12-3
San Diego	21-8	68	0-0	4-4	3-1	14-3
Currently Out
Team	Record	RPI	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Tulane	17-13	76	1-5	5-3	4-3	7-2
Florida Gulf Coast	21-12	56	2-4	4-4	4-2	11-2
Kentucky	22-12	59	3-8	4-2	5-2	10-0
Creighton	11-7	46	3-0	2-4	0-0	6-3
NC State	16-13	64	2-10	9-2	4-1	1-0
Dallas Baptist	19-9	137	3-5	1-0	3-2	12-2
Clemson	15-18	75	3-11	7-6	4-0	1-1
Virginia	17-18	60	7-12	4-6	2-0	4-0
Wichita State	19-12	63	1-4	0-3	3-3	15-2
Ohio State	13-12	53	3-3	2-6	5-2	3-1
VCU	22-14	54	3-5	1-3	6-3	12-3
LSU	22-14	29	3-11	8-1	3-2	7-0
Duke	17-16	45	8-11	5-5	2-0	2-0
Kansas	21-15	57	7-5	3-7	1-0	10-3
Coastal Carolina	18-13	79	3-3	7-6	5-2	3-2
Texas A&M	22-17	90	5-9	4-2	2-5	11-1
Maryland	13-12	100	1-4	5-2	2-2	5-4
Southern Illinois	25-9	105	0-0	2-3	7-5	16-1
Kansas State	21-15	112	4-8	2-2	3-4	12-1

Great info thanks for assembling doing some great bball reporting! Indiana has a crazy bad RPI yet good conf. record. Lots of currently out bubble teams with 75+ RPIs which will probably keep them out unless they win their conf, which I believe is AQ for postseason for P5 teams, no?

Schedule wise, Indiana series looms large then a bunch of games with mid to lower pack B10 teams, need to pile up series wins and we should punch ticket to regionals.

 

[KyleHuesmann]

I approve of this! Keep it up Hawks! Just think if Dreyer was healthy and pitching. What do we need this weekend, 2/4 or need 3/4?

I’m thinking split with Maryland and beat Northwestern both times is what we need. I think that’s also very attainable.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

So what was the final explanation for no post season Big 10 tourney? Being from Omaha, LOVED going to this, well, more so than last time when Iowa went 2 and BBQ and had 1 run in 2 game but that's beside the point!

I don’t know that there has been one. Pretty stupid actually, and Iowa went 2 and Q two times ago. They beat Indiana in game one last time before dropping two straight. I can’t let Cole McDonalds gem start go unnoticed.

I agree with @KyleHuesmann on 3/4 with both wins against NW. A home loss to a team with their RPI really really hurts. If you’re going to drop a game or two against those RPIs then it needs to be on the road, it’ll still hurt a lot but not like at home.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Why no baseball conference tournament? The commish is that much of a douche?

 

[KyleHuesmann]

Why no baseball conference tournament? The commish is that much of a douche?

My guess is that it has to do with everyone already playing each other during the regular season. 44 conference games compared to the usual 24.

 

[BigOHawk]

My guess is that it has to do with everyone already playing each other during the regular season. 44 conference games compared to the usual 24.

Makes sense, would've been nice to see just a few non conf games, Iowa usually plays a tourney or two in late Feb against some RPI strong teams like last year.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Makes sense, would've been nice to see just a few non conf games, Iowa usually plays a tourney or two in late Feb against some RPI strong teams like last year.

Iowa plays series against strong RPI teams since Heller has arrived. They’ve had a home against Okie State, UC Irvine came to Iowa City, UNLV even though they ended up being down, last year there were excellent tournaments, midweek vs Missouri. Better than playing Western Illinois seven times.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

So Iowa’s RPI is at 40 today, Maryland is 98. Iowa wins and they gain 17 points, lose and they lose 84 points. Perspective is this, and before other teams play which can and will impact RPI. A win moves Iowa to 37-38, while a loss drops you to 46-47. That is before other games are factored in. As it stands now, Nebraska, Ohio State are Iowa’s best friends.

This will also show you how weighted road games are vs home homes, I am putting RPI by each team.

#46 Nebraska @ #243 Michigan State - Nebraska wins they get 14 points, lose they lose 71 points.

#173 Penn State @ #54 Ohio State - OSU wins they lose 7 points, lose they lose 116 points.

So Iowa needs to protect home field, and win more on the road than they lose. If you’re going to lose to MSU or NW, the road is much better. Iowa’s hairy stretch is the home games vs PSU and Illinois.

 

[AuroraHawk]

UPDATE: d1 Baseball's projections are out. Iowa's status is now more tenuous. Now listed as one of the last 5 teams getting a bid: https://d1baseball.com/postseason/projected-field-of-64-may-4/

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Doesn't d1 Baseball release its updated NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections on Tuesdays? I don't see an update today.

Pretty sure that Baseball America releases its updates on Wednesdays.

I'm just curious to read how this past weekend's games may have impacted both publications' views on Iowa's chances.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

UPDATE: d1 Baseball's projections are out. Iowa's status is now more tenuous. Now listed as one of the last 5 teams getting a bid: https://d1baseball.com/postseason/projected-field-of-64-may-4/

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Doesn't d1 Baseball release its updated NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections on Tuesdays? I don't see an update today.

Pretty sure that Baseball America releases its updates on Wednesdays.

I'm just curious to read how this past weekend's games may have impacted both publications' views on Iowa's chances.

If Iowa and Maryland finish within a game or two of one another, I don’t see how you’d give Maryland a bid over Iowa.

Also, college sports madness projects ONE team from the conference making a regional this week. I think this site is a major outlier, but still interesting. I don’t think people know how to predict the B1G due to lack of a non conference.

Bracketology

www.collegesportsmadness.com

 

[KyleHuesmann]

If Iowa and Maryland finish within a game or two of one another, I don’t see how you’d give Maryland a bid over Iowa.

Also, college sports madness projects ONE team from the conference making a regional this week. I think this site is a major outlier, but still interesting. I don’t think people know how to predict the B1G due to lack of a non conference.

Bracketology

www.collegesportsmadness.com

I would riot if they put just one Big Ten team in. 4 looks to be likely and I could see 5 if Rutgers or Maryland keeps rolling.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

I would riot if they put just one Big Ten team in. 4 looks to be likely and I could see 5 if Rutgers or Maryland keeps rolling.

It looks like to me that D1 Baseball is saying the conference is a four team league, and the top four will make it. I’m hoping for five, but that may not happen.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Baseball America has Iowa in, they are listed as one of the “last four in”. Rutgers and Maryland listed as “next four out”.

Iowa is projected at #3 national seed Vanderbilt.

1. Vanderbilt
4. Bryan

2. Clemson
3. Iowa

2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (5/5/21)

Updating our projected NCAA Tournament field with less than a month to go until Selection Monday.

www.baseballamerica.com