NCAA too early projections
- Thread starter crhawkwrestling
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Garrett is on another level. Everyone has a bad day i just think if they wrestled 10 times garrett wins 9. I wouldnt use the taylor match as a gauge. Its like using tshirt and zain match. Neither looked themselves. I think Gillman is your best shot to stand on top. Tomasello and gillman will be a good one in march.
Nobody cares what you think.
Things no reasonable wrestling fan would have bet on: Owings beating Gable, Mark Branch coming into the national tournament as a freshman with an 8-9 record and winning a national title, the "Strongest Man in the World" winning a championship in '97, Bubba pinning Taylor. Just sayin'.
How great would nationals be this year if the team title came down to these matches on Saturday night:
Mega vs Gman
Zain vs BS
MM vs Burak
In addition to CC and Nolf or Bo also wrestling Sat night
How insanely fun would that be!
Mega vs Gman
Zain vs BS
MM vs Burak
In addition to CC and Nolf or Bo also wrestling Sat night
How insanely fun would that be!
In that scenario I hope Iowa would have enough points to only require winning 1 of those 3. I like Gman vs Mega but I'm not sure about the others.
I assume Sorensen has wrestled Metcalf many times. Although he may not beat Retherford, I doubt if it's the case that he'll be overwelmed by the pace.
I'd take Gilman way before I'd take Burak. Burak has been wrestling well this season but he also hasn't face any of the top 10 guys. I'd like to see what he can do against the elites before I'd favor him over a guy that last year put even more distance between the two. His highest ranked opponent to date has been Studebaker from Nebraska (#16) and that was a 4-2 decision.
I'm not sure what you've seen to give you confidence in Burak beating McIntosh.
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I predict we win NCAAs. We have a bedbug problem and Tarp shows us how to handle it.
Azcheif shows up with a mystical reign dance to start our streak again. AFhawk and WMD are 24 hrs ahead on the tailgating.
Gobblin eats all the negative posters.
Oh ya we win by 1.5 pts
Azcheif shows up with a mystical reign dance to start our streak again. AFhawk and WMD are 24 hrs ahead on the tailgating.
Gobblin eats all the negative posters.
Oh ya we win by 1.5 pts
If you don't already do so, I recommend some of you subscribe to BTN2GO Plus. Doing so will allow you to watch most B10 wrestling events, and subsequently see how our guys compare to others. If you do so, you'll see that some of our wrestlers (e.g., Meyer, Cooper) have little to no chance of getting AA status and we'll be lucky if they win 2 matches at NCAAs, and that others (e.g., Rhoads, Carton), will be lucky to get to the dance and win 1 match. That said, I can see Brooks and Stoll getting AA, Burak and Clark getting top 3, and Gillman and Sorenson getting to the finals. Anything more than that (e.g., Brody making magic and possibly getting AA) would be nice, but I just don't see it. I love Iowa wrestling and would love nothing more than to see PSU and the Buckeyes completely choke and our guys step up and win it all, but with what I've seen so far this year, it just aint gonna happen...not even close. We need at least two, if not three, Zeke Moisey type performances in the NCAAs for us to have any chance of beating PSU, which sucks because I despise PSU wrestling. And sadly, Cael and company are going to be hard to beat for the foreseeable future. The rest of us might have some horses at a few weights, but he's going to have a corral filled with em!! 
I am not sure I am buying what you are selling. PSU is not that big a front runner. Will we have to wrestle well to win? Of course. That is what you have to do most of the time to win a team title.If you don't already do so, I recommend some of you subscribe to BTN2GO Plus. Doing so will allow you to watch most B10 wrestling events, and subsequently see how our guys compare to others. If you do so, you'll see that some of our wrestlers (e.g., Meyer, Cooper) have little to no chance of getting AA status and we'll be lucky if they win 2 matches at NCAAs, and that others (e.g., Rhoads, Carton), will be lucky to get to the dance and win 1 match. That said, I can see Brooks and Stoll getting AA, Burak and Clark getting top 3, and Gillman and Sorenson getting to the finals. Anything more than that (e.g., Brody making magic and possibly getting AA) would be nice, but I just don't see it. I love Iowa wrestling and would love nothing more than to see PSU and the Buckeyes completely choke and our guys step up and win it all, but with what I've seen so far this year, it just aint gonna happen...not even close. We need at least two, if not three, Zeke Moisey type performances in the NCAAs for us to have any chance of beating PSU, which sucks because I despise PSU wrestling. And sadly, Cael and company are going to be hard to beat for the foreseeable future. The rest of us might have some horses at a few weights, but he's going to have a corral filled with em!!
I think our chances for bonus points is better this year. I think Gman is going to destroy people until at least the qrts, and I even like Burak's chances for a few bonus point wins, throw in a couple of pins by Stoll. Brooks needs to win bigs to get a good seed. Sure on paper it looks like PSU should win, but you still gotta go out and perform.
As others noted, I think you shorted PSU quite a few points and maybe gave Iowa the benefit of the doubt in a few.
If you don't already do so, I recommend some of you subscribe to BTN2GO Plus. Doing so will allow you to watch most B10 wrestling events, and subsequently see how our guys compare to others. If you do so, you'll see that some of our wrestlers (e.g., Meyer, Cooper) have little to no chance of getting AA status and we'll be lucky if they win 2 matches at NCAAs, and that others (e.g., Rhoads, Carton), will be lucky to get to the dance and win 1 match. That said, I can see Brooks and Stoll getting AA, Burak and Clark getting top 3, and Gillman and Sorenson getting to the finals. Anything more than that (e.g., Brody making magic and possibly getting AA) would be nice, but I just don't see it. I love Iowa wrestling and would love nothing more than to see PSU and the Buckeyes completely choke and our guys step up and win it all, but with what I've seen so far this year, it just aint gonna happen...not even close. We need at least two, if not three, Zeke Moisey type performances in the NCAAs for us to have any chance of beating PSU, which sucks because I despise PSU wrestling. And sadly, Cael and company are going to be hard to beat for the foreseeable future. The rest of us might have some horses at a few weights, but he's going to have a corral filled with em!!
I disagree with your Meyer comments. Wrestlestat has him ranked 9th right now. Last year he beat Brunson, Butler and Jackson. He took Crutchmer down to the wire this November. He even almost beat Miklus (Intermat 184, #4) last year at the National duals. The Walters match was disappointing but I'm not going to write off his chances based on one match. He has a track record of success against most of the guys currently ranked ahead of him.
I wholeheartedly concur WRT bonus point chances. I think Gillman and Brooks are going to try to destroy people, and I think Clark, Burak and BS will push hard as well. I'm especially impressed with how Burak seems much more offensive-minded this year than in the past. Hopefully that trend will continue as we go into the B10s and NCAAs. Also, I've been very impressed with Stoll...he's much farther along than I thought he would be at this stage in the game.
I watched the Brunson contest...Meyer was beaten until he rolled Brunson literally in the final seconds. And I also watched the Crutchmer match; it was only close because Crutchmer stopped working once he was up by a half a dozen. As for the Milkus match, "almost" happens all the time, and if you watch the footage, Meyer's points were off Milkus' over-aggressiveness (and locked hands), and not from Meyer's offense. That said, it just seemed like last year Meyer came off the bench with nothing to lose and it showed. This year he's seemingly wrestling a tad more reserved, perhaps not wanting to make the bad move (like Brooks does at times), but at the same time he's not firing like a crazy man (like Brooks does all the time). I wish Meyer would loosen up and take a few chances and attack early...he can't wait to beat everyone in the 3rd period.
So far from accurate I wouldn't know where to start my response.
Please do tell what's "so far from accurate." Here are links to the bouts. Brunson up 5-3 with 3 seconds left when Meyer rolled him. Crutchmer had Meyer on his back 15 seconds into the match and was up by 7 or 8 before going into a defensive posture. Milkus match as I described. If I'm wrong I don't mind admitting it, but I don't think I'm wrong...watch the videos...or do your own research. But please don't give me some lame response about how you don't know where to start. I think you can start by watching the matches. Videos don't lie...
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/805838-174lbs-match-kyle-crutchmer-osu-vs-alex-meyer-iowa
http://www.flowrestling.org/video/761607-184lbs-finals-willie-miklus-missouri-vs-alex-meyer-iowa
Where are the videos of the aforementioned Jackson and Blaise Butler matches? How about last year's win against Crutchmer? How about vs Chad Welch? You conveniently left those off.
Your subjective argument about him being much more aggressive last year is just not based in reality. Last year he had a bad loss to Frank Cousins. He also had a large number of close matches including to McDiarmid and Zeb Wahle.
I like the way you write off his match this year against Crutchmer because he got down early and place all the blame on Crutchmer with no credit to Meyer. I suppose we might as well write off the basketball win against Purdue with that logic while we're at it. Could the reality possibly be that Crutchmer just caught him in a fluke headlock and Meyer outwrestled him the rest of the way?
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I didn't address those matches because I didn't see them...don't want to talk about what I haven't seen as I don't want to be one of those guys. I hope you're right and I'm wrong about what he does this year. And trust me, I want him to win it all...but right now I'm just not confident about his potential based on what I've seen so far this year. Thanks for the feedback.
What exactly is a roll? Like a side roll? Meyer was in on an outside single on Brunson with little to know time left and Brunson elected to stay with the chest lock. He could have bailed and gave up the two but he elected to hang on with such little time. I'm not sure what roll you are speaking about. Minus the head lock Meyers best match of the year is vs. Crutchrmer. He got tossed for 6 right off the bat and came back and lost by 1. If you watch the match he has double unders and Crutch walks out of bounds with 2 seconds left. Any ref with some marbles calls that stalling and they go to OT. Crutch is not exactly an offensive juggernaut so I'm not sure he would have wrestled any different. I'm worried about Meyer at nationals also but what's great about him is that he is excellent in all 3 positions and has a huge motor. I'm not sure how you can dismiss wins vs. Jackson, Brunson, Crutch, and Butler. Those are all highly ranked guys. Depending how he does vs. Jackson in the Indiana dual he could be the 1-4 seed. If he beats Jackson in the dual and Bo beats Brunson in their dual Meyer should be the one seed at Big 10's. I think he matches up great vs. Jackson.
Brooks worries me more than Meyer because of how tough of a weight that is. There are 15 really good guys there and one elite guy. If he draws the 8-9 seed then he has a tough round of 16 match then Dean. If he loses there then he is in the same position he was in last year(has to beat a guy like Stauffer to AA).
I think the point is simply that he has the ability to beat the very highly ranked opponents. He's proven that's not a fluke with a multitude of ranked wins over the past two seasons. I think some people just had unrealistic expectations for him coming into the season. I just disagree with your assessment that he has little to no chance of reaching the podium. I'd put his chances at 50/50 right now.
While his loss to Walters was bad, other wrestlers ranked ahead of him also have bad losses.
Bryce Hammond (#8) lost to Realbuto 11-1.
Cody Walters lost to #13 Jonathan Schleifer 4-3.
Blaise Butler lost to Hammond 10-7
Nate Jackson lost to Myles Martin 7-5
Ottinger got pinned twice by Chandler Rodgers
There is not a single guy at this weight that I don't think Meyer could have a shot against. Even Nickal lost to Jackson and struggled in 1 point wins over Ottinger and Martin.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Meyer wrestle on Saturday night or lose in the round of 12 in this weight class.
I understand what you are saying....but if his chances are 50/50.....that's not really good. We need better than that.
i'd say Cooper has a 50/50 chance of winning most any of his matches except Nolf & Imar. And I wouldn't really count on any points from Coop at NCAA.
Our fate this March will largely depend on 3 weight classes (141,174 and 184). These are the three weights with the greatest chance for a large swing in scoring.
141: Chance for a swing of >10 points. If Carton is the guy I doubt we get more than 2 points. If Grothus can return to form, I think we could realistically see 10+ points here. Outside of Heil I don't see a lot of top tier competition here. Currently, Intermat has 0 points figured here at this weight and predicts Iowa at 89.5 for the tournament.
174: Intermat currently has Meyer at 12th. I think that is worst case scenario. I believe he's better than Butler and Jackson who are both ranked ahead of him. I think he'll end up somewhere around 4-8.
184: He's currently 7th per Intermat. This is a weight where he could easily finish in the top 4 or miss the podium.
If Iowa can improve on their current rankings at these 3 weights I feel pretty good about our chances. The rest I feel pretty confident will end up within 2 places from their current ranking.
141: Chance for a swing of >10 points. If Carton is the guy I doubt we get more than 2 points. If Grothus can return to form, I think we could realistically see 10+ points here. Outside of Heil I don't see a lot of top tier competition here. Currently, Intermat has 0 points figured here at this weight and predicts Iowa at 89.5 for the tournament.
174: Intermat currently has Meyer at 12th. I think that is worst case scenario. I believe he's better than Butler and Jackson who are both ranked ahead of him. I think he'll end up somewhere around 4-8.
184: He's currently 7th per Intermat. This is a weight where he could easily finish in the top 4 or miss the podium.
If Iowa can improve on their current rankings at these 3 weights I feel pretty good about our chances. The rest I feel pretty confident will end up within 2 places from their current ranking.
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I concur. I think if these three wrestle to their potential (which would have to include Grothus circa 2013), they can make a Zeke Moisey type run and give us a shot at winning it all. At this point, I'm just looking forward to seeing how we look against Nebraska and then PSU in the duals. I'm curious to see how this year's version of Burak looks against McIntosh as well as how BS fares against Zain. Even though Zain is a beast, I just don't see him having the same success against BS that he had against Tsirtsis. I think the duals will give us a good look into what we can expect in March.
Living in Nashville where the only wrestling these folks watch is WCW or NWA (or whatever it is these days), I'm so grateful for the B10 network and B102GO and this forum.
Apparently you've been under a rock the last few months. Iowa does not have a dual meet against PSU this season. An Iowa wrestler will not face a PSU wrestler this season until B10s (which is in March).
I worry about Garrett getting to Clark's legs easily...If Clark can solve that, he can beat Garrett. It's why Gilman owned Garrett...NG couldn't shoot on him successfully from the outside and get past his head hands defense. Garrett is good, but he can get got.
10-4 chief. I love Clark matching up with garrett. Especially the fact that Garret's been riden like a pony numerous times throughout his career. I'd much rather have Clark wrestle Garrett then Brewer.
I didn't think I'd been under a rock, and I'm seeing the duals on both Penn State and Iowa's schedule, but I never read anything about the format change. Does anyone have a link that talks to the changes to the format for the national duals? Thank you.
I don't have a link and I could be wrong, but I think everybody wrestles one dual and that's all.
I really liked the way that Clark wrestled against Wisconsin. Controlled the match with his ties, protected his legs and really dominated a very good wrestler. If he wrestles like that against Garrett (and pretty much everybody else), I like his chances.
IDK, Taylor's only wrestled 3 matches. Certainly Clark is capable of beating him at full strength, but I personally wouldn't put much stock in this particular match, similar to what happened to Brody Grothus at Dubuque last week. Taylor will be a tough out come March, and so hopefully will Grothus.
Agree. I think Cory takes Taylor in any future matches between the two, but Taylor didn't look sharp at all in this one. Part of that had to do with Cory's wrestling, to be sure, but this wasn't Taylor at full strength by any stretch of the imagination. That said, Clark wasn't 100% either, coming off the Midlands knee tweak, so that probably negated some of Taylor's disadvantage due to rust that has resulted from his own injury.
If Clark had done that against a healthy Taylor with 10 matches under his belt for the season, I would have been very impressed. Still a very solid win -- just not knocking my socks off, because Taylor wasn't himself.
That's true, we can't use this match as a barometer while at the same time overlooking Grothus' matches vs Wisconsin's reserves.
