NCAA tournament projection thread . . .

[BigOHawk]

I'm thinking next time you two are at an Iowa sporting event just buy each other an adult beverage or two and then we are allgood! Maybe one of those Exile Swarm Brews!

Again, I appreciate the info and insight from all on here, not in a race to post info or callout anyone, that is reserved for OT and for the die hard baseball fans this is a good place so thank you both for your contributions.

 

[RossWB]

This afternoon, I talked to an attorney in Texas with whom I am working on a case. He's got a son who is playing D-1 baseball and we were discussing RPI and its inherent flaws.

In any event, he shared this website with me: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

If you click on the link, it will give you a breakdown of what every college baseball team needs, as of Monday, to do to get its RPI in the (a) Top 45; (b) Top 32; (c) Top 16 and (d) Top 8. If you scroll to Iowa, heading into last night's game, you'll see what it needs to do to get its RPI into either the Top 45 or Top 32.

Top 45
6 home wins; 3 road wins
7 home wins; 1 road win

Top 32
7 home wins; 3 road wins

If its calculations are correct, there is no scenario for Iowa to get into the Top 16 or Top 8 (which seems to be contrary to some of WN's calculations)

Iowa got one home win last night so to get into the 33-45 RPI range, it needs to win 6 of 7 at home and win just a single game at NW or win 5 of 7 at home and sweep NW.

To get into the 17-32 RPI range, Iowa needs to win 6 of its final 7 home games and sweep NW.

I found it interesting that, according to this site's algorithm's, Maryland can't get into the Top 32 and Indiana can't get into the Top 16. To get into the Top 45, MSU would need to win 5 home games and sweep Illinois and Iowa on the road. In other words, MSU would have to finish its season season 11-0 to get into the Top 45. Tough hill to climb.

Interesting website there -- thanks. I'm a little confused, though -- he says Iowa can't reach the Top 32... but they're already 29th. Or does his projection assume that Iowa will drop in RPI even with wins over Northwestern, since the Wildcats are terrible (RPI 262)?

The Warren Nolan Predicted RPI has Iowa at 14 (!) with a sweep of Northwestern. That would be great, although I'm not sure if I really believe it.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Interesting website there -- thanks. I'm a little confused, though -- he says Iowa can't reach the Top 32... but they're already 29th. Or does his projection assume that Iowa will drop in RPI even with wins over Northwestern, since the Wildcats are terrible (RPI 262)?

The Warren Nolan Predicted RPI has Iowa at 14 (!) with a sweep of Northwestern. That would be great, although I'm not sure if I really believe it.

I think your first point hits the nail on the head. Iowa - even with a sweep - likely drops 24-30 RPI points. I’m far from certain that losing 25-30 RPI points keeps Iowa in Top 32. I’m hoping not only for a sweep but that I’m wrong as to where Iowa would end up.

No explanation for WN’s “predicted” result of 14 (I saw 17 as I browsed during the lunch hour). Unless the algorithm includes a prediction of how B1G tournament would play out. Who knows?

 

[RossWB]

I think your first point hits the nail on the head. Iowa - even with a sweep - likely drops 24-30 RPI points. I’m far from certain that losing 25-30 RPI points keeps Iowa in Top 32. I’m hoping not only for a sweep but that I’m wrong as to where Iowa would end up.

No explanation for WN’s “predicted” result of 14 (I saw 17 as I browsed during the lunch hour). Unless the algorithm includes a prediction of how B1G tournament would play out. Who knows?

Got it -- thanks.

 

[RossWB]

The finish line for the 2023 college baseball season is rapidly approaching and Iowa is in the process of wrapping up one of its finest seasons to date. Despite the potential distraction of an ongoing sports gambling investigation that has sidelined the team's best hitter (Keaton Anthony), Iowa sits at 37-12 overall and 13-7 in Big Ten play. 37 wins is already tied for the 7th most in program history.

Iowa has a minimum of five more games to play -- three this weekend against Northwestern in the final regular season series, plus at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament. The program record is 44 wins, set by Duane Banks back in 1981. Matching or improving that mark would likely require sustained runs in the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament. The Heller Era record for wins is 41, set back in 2015, which was one of two NCAA Regional appearances the Hawkeyes have made under current head coach Rick Heller.

Speaking of the NCAA Tournament...

NCAA TOURNAMENT​

The Heller Era at Iowa has been a huge success -- 10 consecutive winning seasons, the best winning percentage for any post-World War II Iowa head coach, a Big Ten Tournament championship, and two NCAA regional appearances -- but the one thing that rankles a little is that Iowa hasn't been able to translate more of that overall success into NCAA Tournament success. Iowa has made two NCAA appearances under Heller, in 2015 and 2017.

Iowa has been on the NCAA Tournament bubble often in recent years, but they haven't ended on the right side of that bubble. Untimely late-season losses, especially against RPI-busting non-conference opponents, have been a common thread in many of those burst bubble seasons. The good news is that Iowa appears to be in position to avoid that heartbreak this season.

MORE HERE: https://iowa.rivals.com/news/iowa-baseball-postseason-projections

 

[BigOHawk]

The finish line for the 2023 college baseball season is rapidly approaching and Iowa is in the process of wrapping up one of its finest seasons to date. Despite the potential distraction of an ongoing sports gambling investigation that has sidelined the team's best hitter (Keaton Anthony), Iowa sits at 37-12 overall and 13-7 in Big Ten play. 37 wins is already tied for the 7th most in program history.

Iowa has a minimum of five more games to play -- three this weekend against Northwestern in the final regular season series, plus at least two games in the Big Ten Tournament. The program record is 44 wins, set by Duane Banks back in 1981. Matching or improving that mark would likely require sustained runs in the Big Ten Tournament and NCAA Tournament. The Heller Era record for wins is 41, set back in 2015, which was one of two NCAA Regional appearances the Hawkeyes have made under current head coach Rick Heller.

Speaking of the NCAA Tournament...

NCAA TOURNAMENT​

The Heller Era at Iowa has been a huge success -- 10 consecutive winning seasons, the best winning percentage for any post-World War II Iowa head coach, a Big Ten Tournament championship, and two NCAA regional appearances -- but the one thing that rankles a little is that Iowa hasn't been able to translate more of that overall success into NCAA Tournament success. Iowa has made two NCAA appearances under Heller, in 2015 and 2017.

Iowa has been on the NCAA Tournament bubble often in recent years, but they haven't ended on the right side of that bubble. Untimely late-season losses, especially against RPI-busting non-conference opponents, have been a common thread in many of those burst bubble seasons. The good news is that Iowa appears to be in position to avoid that heartbreak this season.

MORE HERE: https://iowa.rivals.com/news/iowa-baseball-postseason-projections

Great write up and obviously very timely, thanks!

 

[BigOHawk]

Got it -- thanks.

Teams just behind Iowa in the RPI FYI have some tricky games or ones that even if they win they are losing RPI ground so late Saturday night we should have a really good picture of Iowa's RPI headed into BTT. I'm guessing with a sweep of NW we will be right around 35.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Got it -- thanks.

My "lose 24-30 RPI points" with a sweep prediction was off by a factor of 25% or so.
An Iowa win today will result in losing 13 RPI points. (@BigOHawk posted that number in a different thread) Realistically, if Iowa wins, that number could jump to 14 or 15 on Friday and could climb to 15-16 for Saturday's game.

An Iowa sweep likely results in a loss of 39 (at best) to 44 RPI points over the next 3 days.

If you go with the 2 win, 1 loss scenario, Iowa is likely losing between 85-90 RPI points.

#40 Texas A&M is currently 98 RPI points behind Iowa. #41 Texas Tech is currently 102 points behind Iowa. #42 UCSB is currently 141 points behind Iowa. Thus, if Iowa wins the series but doesn't sweep, it should be in decent shape to stay in the upper 30s. Here's hoping that some other games break in Iowa's favor.

Losing the series to Northwestern could create "tight sphincter" time.

If you are looking at other teams to be rooting for this weekend, root for Florida State, Oklahoma State, Appalachian State, LSU, Auburn and Utah. Those are the opponents over the next 3 days for the teams sitting at #34-#39 in RPI.

 

[BigOHawk]

My "lose 24-30 RPI points" with a sweep prediction was off by a factor of 25% or so.
An Iowa win today will result in losing 13 RPI points. (@BigOHawk posted that number in a different thread) Realistically, if Iowa wins, that number could jump to 14 or 15 on Friday and could climb to 15-16 for Saturday's game.

An Iowa sweep likely results in a loss of 39 (at best) to 44 RPI points over the next 3 days.

If you go with the 2 win, 1 loss scenario, Iowa is likely losing between 85-90 RPI points.

#40 Texas A&M is currently 98 RPI points behind Iowa. #41 Texas Tech is currently 102 points behind Iowa. #42 UCSB is currently 141 points behind Iowa. Thus, if Iowa wins the series but doesn't sweep, it should be in decent shape to stay in the upper 30s. Here's hoping that some other games break in Iowa's favor.

Losing the series to Northwestern could create "tight sphincter" time.

If you are looking at other teams to be rooting for this weekend, root for Florida State, Oklahoma State, Appalachian State, LSU, Auburn and Utah. Those are the opponents over the next 3 days for the teams sitting at #34-#39 in RPI.

At the end of the day, if we don't at least take a series from NW, do we even belong in the field? Some valid points above, everyone is jockeying for conf. tournament seeding or RPI ladder points to be considered for a regional. We have done more than enough at this point however a critical series vs. a team we SHOULD pummel yet I've seen enough sports and Iowa sports over my 35 years of fandom to render this moot and the football is pulled from Charlie Brown again!

That said, I fully believe #Hellerball gets the job done both this weekend and we have a nice BTT run, weather looks great for that next week here in Omaha.

 

[BigOHawk]

My "lose 24-30 RPI points" with a sweep prediction was off by a factor of 25% or so.
An Iowa win today will result in losing 13 RPI points. (@BigOHawk posted that number in a different thread) Realistically, if Iowa wins, that number could jump to 14 or 15 on Friday and could climb to 15-16 for Saturday's game.

An Iowa sweep likely results in a loss of 39 (at best) to 44 RPI points over the next 3 days.

If you go with the 2 win, 1 loss scenario, Iowa is likely losing between 85-90 RPI points.

#40 Texas A&M is currently 98 RPI points behind Iowa. #41 Texas Tech is currently 102 points behind Iowa. #42 UCSB is currently 141 points behind Iowa. Thus, if Iowa wins the series but doesn't sweep, it should be in decent shape to stay in the upper 30s. Here's hoping that some other games break in Iowa's favor.

Losing the series to Northwestern could create "tight sphincter" time.

If you are looking at other teams to be rooting for this weekend, root for Florida State, Oklahoma State, Appalachian State, LSU, Auburn and Utah. Those are the opponents over the next 3 days for the teams sitting at #34-#39 in RPI.

I will also root against Maryland and Indiana... And no, I haven't forgotten about a) the Friday Maryland game we had in the bag with Brody on mound or b) the PSU rainout...either/or and things would be vastly interesting right now!

 

[AuroraHawk]

I will also root against Maryland and Indiana... And no, I haven't forgotten about a) the Friday Maryland game we had in the bag with Brody on mound or b) the PSU rainout...either/or and things would be vastly interesting right now!

Don't feel too bad about the PSU rainout. It won't cost Iowa the regular season title (and #1 seed) if Iowa finishes 16-7 and Indiana and Maryland finish 17-7. Even if Iowa had that extra game against PSU, won that game to finish 17-7, Iowa would still be a 3 seed because of its series losses to Maryland and IU. To be the B1G regular season champ and 1 seed, Iowa would still have to sweep NW and Maryland and IU lose 2 of 3 - regardless of whether Iowa played and won that last game against PSU. For all practical purposes, Iowa "made its bed" early by losing those first series against IU and Maryland.

Blowing the 5 run lead after Anthony's grand slam in game one against Maryland, coughing up 8th inning leads to both Maryland (game 2) and Indiana (game 3) and Frazier looking at strike 3 with a runner on 3rd and 1 out (Indiana game 2) when the game went to extras with score 0-0 just goes to show how close Iowa could be to having the regular season locked up. Flip one game in both series and Iowa is 15-5 in conference . . . sigh.

(To be fair, Iowa was down 6-1 to Maryland in game 3 and won that game so . . . turnabout is fair play)

 

[AuroraHawk]

Interesting website there -- thanks. I'm a little confused, though -- he says Iowa can't reach the Top 32.

The Warren Nolan Predicted RPI has Iowa at 14 (!) with a sweep of Northwestern. That would be great, although I'm not sure if I really believe it.

Early leader in clubhouse is “Boyd’s World RPI Simulator.”

Nolan’s site now predicts Iowa to finish with a 35 RPI.

 

[GolfHacker1]

Nolan’s site now predicts Iowa to finish with a 35 RPI.

Contango? Or backwardation?

 

[AuroraHawk]

Contango? Or backwardation?

Once I looked up those terms, I like your comment!

 

[BigOHawk]

I see a 31 just now in predicted team sheet, but splitting hairs, either number is fine and gets them in. Btw, Iowa bats jumped out early as Aurora pointed out and saved wear and tear on Marcus and bullpen. I'm really curious how much emphasis all B10 teams put on tournament next week? Sure, the ones not projected to be in regional are pushing 100% but thought on not wearing all your arms/teams down over the course of 5 days if you don't have to if comfortably in? Thoughts?

 

[SotaHawk87]

D1baseball postseason predictions: Clemson rises, LSU drops with 2023 Men's College World Series nearing

The postseason picture remains fluid as D1 baseball predicts the 2023 Men's College World Series in Week 14.

www.ncaa.com

Obviously any region would be tough but I’d like this!

 

[Bro D]

My prediction: iowa all the way

 

[ssckelley]

D1baseball postseason predictions: Clemson rises, LSU drops with 2023 Men's College World Series nearing

The postseason picture remains fluid as D1 baseball predicts the 2023 Men's College World Series in Week 14.

www.ncaa.com

Obviously any region would be tough but I’d like this!

I would too but I can’t see the committee putting Indiana State in the same region where they got swept by the host (Kentucky) and lost to the 3 seed (Iowa) earlier in the season.

Indiana State looks like they have a bloated RPI.

 

[In the blood]

I’m not sure how we will end up but I’ve saved a hotel in Terre Haute. That would be the only regional I would probably drive too.

 

[GolfHacker1]

I’m not sure how we will end up but I’ve saved a hotel in Terre Haute. That would be the only regional I would probably drive too.

I’d consider Lexington and Terre Haute. After that it needs to be a return trip to Omaha. Which is possible if the stars align.

 

[AuroraHawk]

I’d consider Lexington and Terre Haute. After that it needs to be a return trip to Omaha. Which is possible if the stars align.

How do you feel about Charlottesville?

D1 Baseball's updated projections have Iowa in Charlottesville: (1) Virginia (hosting as a 8 seed); (2) West Virginia; (3) Iowa; (4) Pennsylvania.

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 22 • D1Baseball

The latest Field of 64 projections are out, and while the top eight seeds are becoming much clearer, the hosting situation is still very much in flux.

d1baseball.com

 

[GolfHacker1]

How do you feel about Charlottesville?

D1 Baseball's updated projections have Iowa in Charlottesville: (1) Virginia (hosting as a 8 seed); (2) West Virginia; (3) Iowa; (4) Pennsylvania.

D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 22 • D1Baseball

The latest Field of 64 projections are out, and while the top eight seeds are becoming much clearer, the hosting situation is still very much in flux.

d1baseball.com

14 hour drive is doable, but starts to get difficult to justify.

 

[AuroraHawk]

14 hour drive is doable, but starts to get difficult to justify.

Nine hours to Stillwater? LOL.

2023 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64

We’ll be tracking all the action and updating the Projected Field of 64 daily throughout the week.

www.baseballamerica.com