NCAA Tournament through Round 2 - The Power 6 conferences

[AuroraHawk]

According to RPI, here was the year-end rankings of the conferences:
1. Big 12
2. Big East
3. ACC
4. B1G
5. SEC
6. Pac 12
The next ranked conference was the Atlantic 10 and it was ranked significantly below the Pac 12.

Of the 32 games played on Thursday, only two did not involve at least one Power 6 conference team. Those games were UNI v. Wyoming and Gonzaga v. NDSU.

On Thursday, every single game had at least one Power 6 team playing. 13 of the 16 games saw a Power 6 team advancing.

There were two games on Thursday involving Power 6 teams playing head-to-head:
NC State (ACC) (8) beat LSU (SEC) (9) by 1.
Xavier (Big East) (6) beat Ole Miss (SEC) (11) by 19.

On Friday, 14 of the 16 games had at least one Power 6 team playing. 11 of those 14 games saw a Power 6 team advancing.

There were two games on Friday involving Power 6 teams playing head-to-head:
MSU (B1G) (7) beat Georgia (SEC) (10) by 7.
Oregon (Pac 12) (8) beat Oklahoma State (Big 12) (9) by 6.

Power Conference Records through Round 2:

Big 10 (5-2)
Wins over #7, #10, #13, #16
Losses to #6, #9
By seeding only . . . one upset win (OSU) and one upset loss (Purdue)

Big 12 (3-4)
Wins over #12, #14, #16
Losses to #6, #8, #14, #14
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins and two upset losses (ISU, Baylor)

Pac 12 (4-0)
Wins over #6, #9, #12, #15
By seeding only . . . one upset win (UCLA)

SEC (2-3)
Wins over #12, #16
Losses to #6, #7, #8
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins and zero upset losses

Big East (4-2)
Wins #10, #11, #13,#16
Losses to #9, #11
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins and zero upset losses

ACC (6-0)
Wins over #9, #13, #13, #14, #15, #16
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins


Records of Power 6 conferences against head-to-head:
ACC (1-0)
Big East (1-0)
B1G (1-0)
Pac 12 (1-0)
Big 12 (0-1)
SEC (0-3)

Of the remaining 32 teams, 24 are from Power 6 conferences. In every remaining game, at least one Power 6 conference team will be playing.
Head-to-head match-ups today:
OSU (10) v. Arizona (2)
Villanova (1) v. NC State (8)
Utah (5) v. Georgetown (4)
Arkansas (5) v. North Carolina (4)
Butler (6) v. Notre Dame (3)

Head to head match ups tomorrow:
Virginia (2) v. MSU (7)
Oregon (8) v. Wisconsin (1)
West Virginia (5) v. Maryland (4)

Thus,
4 of 5 remaining B1G teams play Power 6 conference teams this weekend.
1 of 3 remaining Big 12 teams play Power 6 conference teams this weekend.
3 of 4 remaining Pac 12 teams play Power 6 conference teams this weekend.
3 of 4 remaining Big East teams play Power 6 conference teams this weekend.
4 of 6 remaining ACC teams play Power 6 conference teams this weekend.
1 of 2 remaining SEC teams play Power 6 conference teams this weekend.

So far, the Power 6 conferences have done very well. Only Baylor, Iowa State and Purdue have lost to teams with inferior seeding. Every one else is pretty much holding serve.

 

[AuroraHawk]

Power 6 conference teams eliminate all 3 non-Power 6 conference teams yesterday. And, when looking at the tournament as a whole, there have been relatively few "upsets" if you look at seeding. And, if you eliminate #8 Purdue losing to #9 Cincinnati and #4 Georgetown losing to #4 Utah, there have been really only three "major" upsets involving Power 6 conference teams (Baylor, ISU and Villanova).

If you look at "quality of wins" in addition to number of wins, the ACC is the leading conference with the Pac 12 closely behind. From a conference success standpoint, today looms large for the B1G. It has the chance to take out a couple of #2 seeds and a #5 seed. It would be nice to see at least 3 B1G teams in the Sweet Sixteen. That will take at least one #7 over #2 upset - possible but definitely a tall order.

Sunday's line-up includes 3 games where Power 6 conference teams face one another (all three involve B1G teams). The other games all involve a Power 6 conference team against a non-Power 6 conference team:
Mountain West has one team (SDSU)
Missouri Valley has two teams (Wichita State and UNI)
Atlantic 10 has one team (Dayton)
West Coast Conference has one team (Gonzaga)

Only Gonzaga would be considered a favorite to win today if you look only at seeding.

Updated after Saturday's Games:

Big 10 (5-3) (four teams left)
Wins over #7, #10, #13, #16
Losses to #2, #6, #9
By seeding only . . . one upset win (#10 OSU over #7 VCU) and one upset loss (#8 Purdue to #9 Cincinnati)

Big 12 (3-4) (three teams left)
Wins over #12, #14, #16
Losses to #6, #8, #14, #14
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins and two upset losses (#3 ISU to #14 UAB and #3 Baylor to #14 Georgia State)

Pac 12 (7-0) (four teams left)
Wins over #4, #6, #9, #10, #12, #14, #15
By seeding only . . . two upset wins (#11 UCLA over #6 SMU and #5 Utah over #4 Georgetown)

SEC (3-4) (two teams left)
Wins over #8, #12, #16
Losses to #4, #6, #7, #8
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins and zero upset losses

Big East (5-5) (one team left)
Wins #10, #11, #13,#14, #16
Losses to #4, #6, #8, #9, #11
By seeding only . . . zero upset wins and two upset losses (#4 Georgetown to #5 Utah and #1 Villanova to #8 NC State)

ACC (9-0)
Wins over #1, #5, #6, #9, #13, #13, #14, #15, #16
By seeding only . . . one upset win (#8 NC State over #1 Villanova)


Records of Power 6 conferences teams in head-to-head match-ups
ACC (4-0)
Big East (1-3)
B1G (1-1)
Pac 12 (3-0)
Big 12 (0-1)
SEC (0-3)

 

[DanL53]

Thank you for posting that info. Not sure why but in the past it seemed like how conferences were doing as a whole received more attention than this year. I have been too lazy to do the math myself.

 

[AuroraHawk]

The "discussion" this time of year usually focuses solely on conference records as opposed to looking at "quality" of wins or whether losses were "bad."

So far, I'd consider Baylor and Iowa State's losses to #14 seeds to be "bad" losses. Villanova's loss to NC State was a "bad" loss. Purdue and Georgetown's losses? Meh. Not "bad" losses.

All other Power 6 conference team losses would fit into the "not unexpected or surprising" category.

Similarly, where are the quality wins? NC State over Villanova is a "quality" win. UCLA's win over SMU was a gift but fits the definition of a "quality" win. Ohio State's win over VCU is, by definition, a "quality" win but not particularly shocking.

Every other Power 6 conference team win involves those teams "holding serve."

Very few surprises so far.

Here's hoping that Iowa can add to the list today.

 

[disgrig]

Interesting. You've done a heckuva lot of research. The only way to really make definitive comparisons would be for 1st-place team play all 1st-place teams in other conferences; 2nd-place teams all play each other; 3rd-place teams all play each other, etc. Obviously, that will never happen. Cincinnati beating Purdue should be no factor is measuring each conference strength top to bottom. If Zags beat Iowa, consensus would still be that B1G is still stronger than WCC. First, how should one define "strongest conference?" Head to head match-ups across conferences is great; but again, to be meaningful such match-ups would need to be based on order of finish in respective conferences and ALL of those match-ups would need to be played. Also, top conferences beat the heck out of each other all year. Some top teams in power conferences play the other top teams in their conference 3 times, including 3-4 days in row at end of year. Then they travel and play within 5 days. Then we wonder why some legs are gone in 1st or 2nd round vs "lesser" competition.

 

[baldwinzag]

Originally posted by disgrig:
If Zags beat Iowa, consensus would still be that B1G is still stronger than WCC. First, how should one define "strongest conference?"

Very true.

The WCC is ranked the 9th best conference (out of 33 D1 conferences), while the Big 10 is ranked 4th best. via KenPom, RPI, etc.

The WCC is no Big 10.

That said, would you guess the WCC ranks higher overall than the 11th ranked Mountain West, feat San Diego St, UNLV, Boise St, Colorado St, Wyoming, Utah St, et al?

Or much higher than the 12th ranked Missouri Valley, feat Wichita St, UNI, etc

Just found that interesting...would you guess the WCC is Top-10 and significantly higher than the conference of Wichita St and UNI or San Diego St, UNLV etc are in?

There are 24 D-1 basketball conferences worse than the WCC, yet the way people refer to it...you'd think it was bottom feeder.

I have a feeling the media would be surprised that the WCC ranks above Mountain West and MVC...

Based on rankings/numbers alone, the WCC is tied with the American Athletic conference, which feat SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati, Tulsa, UCONN, etc. Nearly identical ratings.



This post was edited on 3/22 11:13 AM by baldwinzag

 

[baldwinzag]

In addition to above,

IF you respect conference ratings (not just brand), then you must respect RPI, KenPom, Sagarin, AdjO/D, etc.

Then all things equal, teams playing the same # of games, winning/losing, etc.

Then you must know,

Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State

--- are technically, by equal standards, rated worse than:

Pepperdine, Portland, San Diego, St Mary's.

Gonzaga's RPI/KenPom, Sagarin rating is around 8th, which would be 2nd in Big-10

You can claim "Conference Affiliation" all you want, yet playing against better teams on a more consistent basis actually improves your RPI and Sagarin rating, win or lose.

Heck, BYU at #37 would be 4th in Big-10, JUST behind Mich St.

 

[DogBoyRy]

Let's please refrain from calling the Big 12 a Power anything - especially in bball.
It's Kansas and a pillowfight.