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New Poll: Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat in Iowa

cigaretteman

HB King
May 29, 2001
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Bernie Sanders has drawn even with Hillary Rodham Clinton in a new poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers, suggesting a major shift in the nation's first nominating state.

Sanders attracts 41 percent support compared to 40 percent for Clinton in the new Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday morning. The result is well within the poll's margin of error, making the race a statistical dead heat.

Vice President Joe Biden draws 12 percent, while former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley garners 3 percent.

The poll is the latest evidence of Sanders's surge in the early-voting states. Recent polls out of New Hampshire have shown the independent senator from Vermont leading the former secretary of state in the nation's first primary state.

The Quinnipiac poll is the first to show such a close race in Iowa.

In a July survey, Clinton was leading Sanders, 52 percent to 33 percent, with Biden drawing 7. The vice president has not announced whether he is running.

Meanwhile, an NBC News/Marist poll released just Sunday showed Clinton still with an 11 percentage point lead in Iowa.

The new Quinnipiac poll shows a sizable gender gap among Democrats. Sanders leads Clinton, 49 percent to 28 percent, among men. Clinton leads Sanders, 49 percent to 35 percent, among women.

[Hillary Clinton apologizes for e-mail system: ‘I take responsibility’]

The poll also provides fresh evidence that the controversy over Clinton's e-mail practices are hurting her. Sanders and Biden have higher ratings for honesty. Clinton has the best scores for leadership and temperament to handle an international crisis.

In the poll, 11 percent of likely Democratic caucus goers said they would definitely not support Clinton, a higher figure than any of her rivals.

The poll also revealed that twice as many Democrats say it's more important to pick a candidate whose views are closest to theirs than one with the best chance of defeating a Republican in the general election.

The Quinnipiac poll, conducted Aug. 27 through Sept. 8, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ll-shows-a-clinton-sanders-dead-heat-in-iowa/
 
Cigaretteman, how much if any of Sanders support do you think would go over to Biden if he entered the race? Is it possible the Clinton and Biden would split 60% and leave the rest for Sanders?
 
Cigaretteman, how much if any of Sanders support do you think would go over to Biden if he entered the race? Is it possible the Clinton and Biden would split 60% and leave the rest for Sanders?

I am not sure much of sanders goes Biden's direction (low single digits) but Joe, IMO, would take 15% from Hillary within 2 weeks.
 
I am not sure much of sanders goes Biden's direction (low single digits) but Joe, IMO, would take 15% from Hillary within 2 weeks.
So Biden could swing the nomination to Sanders. Maybe this is a reason for him not to get in the race.
 
So Biden could swing the nomination to Sanders. Maybe this is a reason for him not to get in the race.

That is the way I look at it. Biden is going to take what remaining male democrat establishment that Hillary has left pulling for her (mainly the Bill Clinton fanboys).
 
I am not sure much of sanders goes Biden's direction (low single digits) but Joe, IMO, would take 15% from Hillary within 2 weeks.

I agree that Joe probably wouldn't take much support from Sanders. Most of his support would come from the same demographics as Hillary's rather than Bernie's.
 
Still yawning at the emails as it pertains to hurting Hillary?
I think what hurt Clinton is not the e-mails but her response to the controversy. If she would have went with "this was a mistake" from the beginning then this would be way behind her. Laughing it off and changing your story gives it legs and makes a politician look bad.
 
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I agree that Joe probably wouldn't take much support from Sanders. Most of his support would come from the same demographics as Hillary's rather than Bernie's.

It is why we have heard reports of Biden talking with Warren. If he gets Warren then a lot of Sanders people may move over to him.

IMO he needs one of two things to win:

1. Hillary to drop our (or being forced out).
2. If Hillary stays he needs Warren on the ticket and he needs to have that be known shortly after announcing.
 
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