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Next year...based on last night

perryhawk

perryhawk

HB Legend
Apr 3, 2008
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Usual qualifiers......not a bball expert, just some observations, don't claim these as facts.

After watching last night I came away feeling a little better about next year. After giving some thought about exactly why I felt that way I think it was because of the following:

1) Dom Uhl was really good in the first half....I just have to believe that this experience and confidence will help this young man develop into a hell of a player. He obviously has good size, good athletic ability (specifically his quickness for his size) and he has what I think are above average skills for his size. I think he is already good but another year in the weight room and then the mindset that comes with the confidence know that you are going to play a key role (starter) I think will take his game to another level.

2) Pete......he continues to mature and his shooting ability and natural intelligence for the game continues to show. I think he has become a much better defender and he has a knack for getting steals. I think he will be a good leader next year and if he gets anymore confidence in himself than he already has, look out.

3) Christian Williams......biggest surprise of the night for me. Not just that he played but that he did not look overly intimidated by the setting...he didn't struggle and his handles looked pretty tight. Not saying we won't need more next year, we most certainly will, but he showed enough that it lessened my anxiety. I am curious to read others observations on this.

4) Wagner.....did not seem intimidated....needs work, but got in the flow of the game as much as I have seen him do..

5) Baer continues to play more like an upper classmen who hustles......I think he is a very important player next year.

6) Brady was okay....didn't have a bunch of turnovers, was okay on defense.....I think he will play a much bigger role next year and be just fine.

7) I think these seniors (and Pete) are setting an example, a mindset, a culture that will help next year.

So, I'm not saying look out we will be just as good next year.....I don't think so, but I also am less concerned about how things will work out.

Thoughts?
 
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I think that those are fair observations. My crystal ball is dusty, so a year from now I may be laughing at all of this:

I think Jok is ready to be the #1 scorer, and will put up 19-22 points per night.

Uhl starts and puts up 12 points per game. Offensively, I suppose you characterize him as a stretch 4, but he may end up defending the 5.

I don't know who starts as the other big forward. Wagner will play significant minutes.

Two of the 3 of Cook/Kriener/Pemsl will play significant minutes. Based on recruiting rankings, most will assume that Cook will start. I am not sure that he will beat out Wagner. I think that we can see, based on this year, that McCaffery values experience. I tend to put Pemsl ahead of Kriener, because McCaffery liked him really early in the recruiting process. It may not be next year, but at some point in his Iowa career we will look at Pemsl like Jok, and will realize that he would have had much more recruiting interest but for the timing of his injury issues.

I do not assume that Baer will start. I think that he will continue to be productive, but I think that we are seeing the effect of being in opposing scouting reports. He isn't getting wide open looks.

Christian Williams will start, and will be solid at PG. The offense will not be as good as this year, but it still will be effective.

Defensively, we will miss Woodbury early in the season and will not be as well organized. But we will force a lot of turnovers because we are so long, and by year end we will be a good defensive team.

The 2 guard will be Fleming. He will beat out Ellingson (Moss will be Fleming's major backup, rather than Ellingson). While I like Ellingson, and think he plays smart, if he does not play with more confidence on offense I think he will be surpassed in the rotation.

That leaves the youngest Bohannon and Brandon Hutton. Barring some outlandish development (Uhl channeling Jalen Rose and serving as the back-up point guard), I do think that job will belong to Bohannon. Ellingson handles OK, but is clearly not a point guard. Fleming would have the confidence to do it, but I don't think McCaffery trusts his judgment yet. Jok really slots best as a 3. So that leaves Bohannon (I don't think we have seen enough of Moss to say if he could be pressed into service at point guard).

Hutton might have to beat out Baer as the hustle forward to see much time on the floor. I see them filling the same role. Hutton has better physical tools, Baer has a nice stroke and all the intangibles.

I think that we will be an NCAA team next year, but we will be watching the bubble with some nerves.
 
If Kriener is the starting center next year...from the get-go...will he be more prepared for the role/productive than Woodie was his first year?

Just wondering...
 
revkev73 said:
If Kriener is the starting center next year...from the get-go...will he be more prepared for the role/productive than Woodie was his first year?

Just wondering...
Click to expand...

Remember how awful our interior D was before Woodbury?

Kriener is much better/different offensively but I don't think he will be anywhere near as effective defensively to start out.
 
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Starting lineup off the bat will be,

1. CW
2. Jok
3. Baer
4. Wagner
5. Uhl

Hopefully one of the new bigs can be an effective 5 because it's really not Doms natural position on either end although he creates big mismatches on offense when he is at that spot.

Cook will likely make an impact fairly early just based his athleticism and it's starting to sound like Pemsel is coming along well from injury and has legitimate post moves which is something we haven't had since Brunner.
 
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I think the MSU win once again showed what 3PT scoring can do for a team and how important it is in today's game.

The good news for next season is that Iowa has most of their 3PT shooters back - led by Peter Jok. Losing Uthoff will create a hole, of course, but I would argue that between Ellingson, Uhl, Jones, Fleming, Moss, and Baer, Iowa will again have a strong contingent of 3PT shooters. Not sure about Williams.

Iowa will once again have at least 2 (more often 3 or more) good/very good 3PT shooters on the floor at all times. This is the biggest reason for optimism IMO.
 
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I think next years team would be a great full court press type of team. Athletic with good length at every position. Give 'em 40 minutes of hell!
 
No...I don't remember how bad Iowa's interior defense was before Woodie arrived...I didn't watch it, it was too painful and pathetic...a waste of my time. Now I watch if I am able...it is a fun game style to watch... Fran has brought the dead to life...
 
jdv77 said:
I think that those are fair observations. My crystal ball is dusty, so a year from now I may be laughing at all of this:

I think Jok is ready to be the #1 scorer, and will put up 19-22 points per night.

Uhl starts and puts up 12 points per game. Offensively, I suppose you characterize him as a stretch 4, but he may end up defending the 5.

I don't know who starts as the other big forward. Wagner will play significant minutes.

Two of the 3 of Cook/Kriener/Pemsl will play significant minutes. Based on recruiting rankings, most will assume that Cook will start. I am not sure that he will beat out Wagner. I think that we can see, based on this year, that McCaffery values experience. I tend to put Pemsl ahead of Kriener, because McCaffery liked him really early in the recruiting process. It may not be next year, but at some point in his Iowa career we will look at Pemsl like Jok, and will realize that he would have had much more recruiting interest but for the timing of his injury issues.

I do not assume that Baer will start. I think that he will continue to be productive, but I think that we are seeing the effect of being in opposing scouting reports. He isn't getting wide open looks.

Christian Williams will start, and will be solid at PG. The offense will not be as good as this year, but it still will be effective.

Defensively, we will miss Woodbury early in the season and will not be as well organized. But we will force a lot of turnovers because we are so long, and by year end we will be a good defensive team.

The 2 guard will be Fleming. He will beat out Ellingson (Moss will be Fleming's major backup, rather than Ellingson). While I like Ellingson, and think he plays smart, if he does not play with more confidence on offense I think he will be surpassed in the rotation.

That leaves the youngest Bohannon and Brandon Hutton. Barring some outlandish development (Uhl channeling Jalen Rose and serving as the back-up point guard), I do think that job will belong to Bohannon. Ellingson handles OK, but is clearly not a point guard. Fleming would have the confidence to do it, but I don't think McCaffery trusts his judgment yet. Jok really slots best as a 3. So that leaves Bohannon (I don't think we have seen enough of Moss to say if he could be pressed into service at point guard).

Hutton might have to beat out Baer as the hustle forward to see much time on the floor. I see them filling the same role. Hutton has better physical tools, Baer has a nice stroke and all the intangibles.

I think that we will be an NCAA team next year, but we will be watching the bubble with some nerves.
Click to expand...
A flaw in your reasoning. If Fleming's judgement is all that keeps him from playing the point, and Fran doesn't trust his judgement there, he won't start at the 2 either.

There are some things we can say are likely. Uhl and Jok will be the starting pillars of the team. Baer will be reliable. Wagner will have a role. CW or JB will start by default. But also, if healthy, Jones will play. BE may be an option if he continues to improve. Cook is highly rated and brings unique size and athleticism. Fleming? Right now he's playing as much as Moss and Hutton. Who knows?
 
I don't think we will be as bad as everyone seems to think we will be next year. Cook will be a game changer almost immediately. The key will be PG, will we have someone who can run the team?

BIG problem though. We haven't seen enough of Williams to know if he can step in and take over the team.

Would still love fran to land a top tier PG recruit.
 
Woody is a tremendous interior defender.

Official season opener:

1. CW
2. Brady
3. PJ
4. Wagner
5. Uhl

NCAA first round line up

1. CW
2. Andrew
3. Peter
4. Tyler
5. Uhl

Dom U will be the post defender and a rangy one at that. He'll get thicker and better at holding rebounding position. Tyler will also take up some of the rebounding load. Kriener might be getting some solid minutes.

The Bulldog Baer will be first guy off the bench and we will see him roaming in pressing and trapping defenses and doing the mayhem. Wagner and Baer will be fun to watch in trapping and pressing defense. CW could become a demon in that defense and Fleming will fit right in; he's more than sufficiently athletic to play that game. It was great to see CW get some important minutes in the most hostile venue possible.

Brady's time will disappear if he doesn't contribute on offense and Moss develops. Dale Jones recovery makes him a total unknowable factor. He could emerge as a freaky kind of 4/5 guy that gives the opposition fits. Or he could never really play heavy minutes again.

I think we creep back into the NCAA next year. This season's freshmen are seeing what it takes to win, a luxury our current seniors did not really have.
 
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Uthoff will be impossible to replace...can get his shot off...shot blocker...can run...shooter...

But, we could be better...

I think talent is more important than experience, most times...not always.
 
If Dale Jones fully recovers and is healthy, I think he starts or is the first one off the bench. I don't think we have a clear picture at all of what the front court will look like next season. It'll be interesting to see how things play out.

I'll throw out a wild guess and say:

G- Williams
G- Jok
F- Uhl
F- Jones
F- Wagner

I also think Kriener and Pemsel redshirt.
 
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Some things about next year.

1) We'll play Rutgers, Illinois and Maryland twice. (Go pro Melo! Go pro Melo!) The other two home and away opponents must come from teams we played twice in 2014/15. Could be Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, Wisconsin or Northwestern. I've a feeling we'll finally catch a break with the schedule.

2) Nothing is ever certain but odds are strong that Iowa will not be as good as this year.

3) Guesswork and hopes and dreams and all that, without going into a million things, on the whole it looks like we've got some good raw talent lacking a lot of experience. I strongly think we are at least an NIT lock and suspect we can earn an NCAA invite.

4) By now, maybe we can't presume all McCaffery recruits will turn out to be top half Big Ten caliber, but whether we know anything about them or not, I wonder if we haven't at least reached the point where we needn't assume they will be busts? Maybe we have and I just haven't noticed? Take Williams. A few minutes against Michigan State seems to have brought optimism about his potential. So we didn't know, now we do know? Maybe what we don't know about Fleming, Moss and Hutton isn't so bad? Maybe it's good?

5) I liked how that poll I set up turned out, with around 8 wins being the middle of our expectations for lowest wins in the Big Ten next year. I think that's about where we ought to be, expecting at least middle of the pack finishes even when facing uncertain years like 2016/17. Just my opinion but on blind faith alone I think we should expect to compete for a spot in the NCAA's. We won't always make it, and that should be a disappointment. We get to have disappointments sometimes.

Me personally, I'm betting 9 wins in the Big Ten at least, with a surprisingly good guard court and an improving inside game all season long.
 
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10-11 wins isn't out of the realm of possibility next year...with the talent coming in, and some proven players taking bigger roles like Uhl and Baer. Agree...PG will be key. Perhaps Williams and B...will surprise.

And when I say next year's team could be better...which it might, I am comparing that to next year's (perhaps) easier schedule in conference. (noted by Dan above) And...comparing next year to this...finished season...long way to go, even with a 4-0 start in conference.

The way things stand now...we are set for a nice win total in conference...but life has a way of changing things...I am hopeful. And, bottom line...there is no better start to a conference season than what Fran and the players have cooked up to this point. Two wins vs MSU, wins on the road at Purdue and MSU...well, pretty much beyond even the most hopeful of fans.

Instead of "trying" to win games this year...the players seem to be on a mission...of redemption, for past disappointments.
 
There is NO chance next year will be better than this year.

Gesell >>>>>> Williams or Bohannon
Clemmons >> Ellingson/Moss/Baer
Jok '15 << Jok '16
Uthoff >>>>> Cook/Jones
Woodbury >> Uhl

This is the most experienced Iowa team that I can remember. Next year will not be close to this year. If it is, Fran will be easily the COY.
 
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Watched Cook last play last night on tv. Doesn't have much in the way of offensive skills, yet, but big, strong, moves feet well and runs the floor pretty well. Played at the 5 spot a lot and this is where I see he and Kreiner contributing next year and into the future. Kreiner appears to be much more skilled offensively. I project that we'll see CW, Moss, PJ, Uhl and a mix of Wagner/Cook/Kreiner (sharing the 5 position) with Kreiner being the most skilled offensively. I would not be surprised to see Pemsl red shirted to allow his knee to get stronger. I don't see Ellingson being successful at this level of play and wonder if Bohannon might not be in a similar position (limited athleticism, ?? ball handling skills, physicality). Time will tell, but these 2 will be at a much lower level than most of the rest of the team in terms of the aspects I mentioned, imo. There is a big difference in playing/being successful at the high school level versus playing/being successful in major college basketball.
 
big difference between blind homer and reality. No way can that team be as good. While more athletically talented the experience factor is HUGE. Having 4 seniors who have been there and done that at the end of tight games makes such a difference it is hard to over state.
 
Never...No Way...those are big words. Been a long time since Iowa had so much talent ready to hit the floor and contribute. The schedule...talent of the rest of the Big Ten returning next year...and how Iowa finishes this year all will come into the formula of whether Never...No Way...prove to be true.

In college BB...most of the upper level talent is gone to the NBA...lower level teams that have a lot of experienced seniors on them...(those who aren't NBA ready) can compete against the athletes of the Kentuckys, Duke, etc...but more often the young, talented teams trump experience in the tournament.

Blind Homer? Now that is funny...
 
The aura of this year's team needs to be duplicated by next year's to find the success we've found early. Teamwork and team first mentality. Passing the ball. Doggedness on defense and intensity. Having your buddies back in a scrape.

When Utey isn't hitting or is in foul trouble, Jok is there. Or Gesell. Or Baer. Or Uhl. With everyone else chipping in with this or that. Clemmons is glue. Whol's the AC for next year? Guys like that get overlooked and will be hugely missed.

The coaches always work their asses off trying to put the best team on the floor. This year, a lot of the pieces have fallen in their lap. So far, this is a really magical season and should teach everyone what happens when hard work and creating breaks for yourself collide.
 
Two things people have mentioned as being our major handicaps for next year - Team Chemistry & Experience.

I will note that there will be more chemistry than most will think. By the time next season starts- Uhl, Baer, Jok, Williams, Ellingson, Fleming, Moss, Hutton, Wagner and Jones will have spent no less than a year and a half together. They will know each others game, their strengths, their tendencies, their weaknesses, their movements, their skillsets. That should not be taken lightly, IMO.

They will all have well over a year of being in Fran's system and tutelage. They will have an understanding of what is needed by each position, and each player. Will they have a lot of gametime experience? Not most. But they will have some experience. There will be 8 players that have played minutes for the Hawkeyes when next season begins. That is more than that overrated team to the west has on their roster, or the one that beat them from the north. Both are down to 7.
Think about that....

Now let's sit back and enjoy this season unfold. Looking kicka$$ so far! Love me some Hawkeyes!
 
Looking at this thread, no one is saying we'll be as good next year. Of course we won't. But this year's team looks like it's going to put us over the top as far as having a culture of winning=expecting to win, something I haven't seen since TD was coach. That's good to see.
 
Last edited:
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Vbeachawk said:
Watched Cook last play last night on tv. Doesn't have much in the way of offensive skills, yet, but big, strong, moves feet well and runs the floor pretty well. Played at the 5 spot a lot and this is where I see he and Kreiner contributing next year and into the future. Kreiner appears to be much more skilled offensively. I project that we'll see CW, Moss, PJ, Uhl and a mix of Wagner/Cook/Kreiner (sharing the 5 position) with Kreiner being the most skilled offensively. I would not be surprised to see Pemsl red shirted to allow his knee to get stronger. I don't see Ellingson being successful at this level of play and wonder if Bohannon might not be in a similar position (limited athleticism, ?? ball handling skills, physicality). Time will tell, but these 2 will be at a much lower level than most of the rest of the team in terms of the aspects I mentioned, imo. There is a big difference in playing/being successful at the high school level versus playing/being successful in major college basketball.
Click to expand...

Saw a bit of Cook last nite also. They listed him as 6'9'', 235lbs. and he was clearly taller than the 6'8'' Tatum. Blocked a shot late in the game on a big possession. Good hops. I see him as an early option in the middle as you indicated. Dom can swing outside and give him room to operate down low....he is a stud and will play a lot next year.
 
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revkev73 said:
We might be better next year...
Click to expand...

Not 1 chance in 100. We're a legit threat to make the final 4 this year. Next years team is most likely NIT-bound IMO. I know if sounds like a cliché, but leadership is incredibly important. We've got it this year in spades. Where will it come from next year? Pete is a special talent, but sort of a quiet kid. Hopefully he and Dom step up and provide the same type of leadership that Seniors this year have provided.
 
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revkev73 said:
Never...No Way...those are big words. Been a long time since Iowa had so much talent ready to hit the floor and contribute. The schedule...talent of the rest of the Big Ten returning next year...and how Iowa finishes this year all will come into the formula of whether Never...No Way...prove to be true.

In college BB...most of the upper level talent is gone to the NBA...lower level teams that have a lot of experienced seniors on them...(those who aren't NBA ready) can compete against the athletes of the Kentuckys, Duke, etc...but more often the young, talented teams trump experience in the tournament.

Blind Homer? Now that is funny...
Click to expand...

Not sure I agree with that.
 
I think Baer is one of the main leaders who has changed the culture and attitude of team this year...I expect him to return...
 
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I think we can be as good as this year, with our returning roster, but the fact is we will be very young next year. This year we are graduating the face of "re-build" that Fran has done. These 4 seniors were a top 25 class and they are now playing like it. They are a solid group of players who have experience and understand their roles on the team.

Next year we have some good player returning and we will add in Moss & Hutton. The Freshman for next year will be able to contribute a little, but they shouldn't need to be counted on, cause we return a solid group of players (Uhl, Jok, Baer, Ellingson, Wagner, Flemming, Williams and Jones). Should be a good group to build on.
 
On next year.....I think the odds are very long that we will be as good as we are this year.....that said, I'm not down or disappointed about that. In fact I am very excited to see all the new faces in new roles and as someone else mentioned.....the raw talent there appears to be on this roster. I think it will be more of a Michigan, MSU, Indiana, Illinois type of roster only under Fran's great coaching. I think in 2 years we will be REALLY good....when all of this raw talent has a full year of experience.

I just think it is practical, or realistic, to understand that next year we most likely won't have the wins or high expectations for an NCAA run. That said, IF the PG play is average to above I could see next year's team get hot towards the end of the season when they start to click. And I believe that once these athletes start to play the game the way Fran coaches it, look out, the sky is the limit. The qualifier here is that the team has to have chemistry as others have mentioned and that is not a given.

Kind of my main reason for starting this post was, after watching the MSU game......am I taking too much from it in my observations of those players (Like CW) who will play major roles next year? I kind of think I was because it was just one game, but the stage it was played on was huge so maybe not?

**I already can't wait for the PTL next year.....that should be an awesome chance to watch everyone and get our first good look at Moss.
 
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