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No Labels snags Sen. Joe Manchin for event, stoking talk of presidential run

cigaretteman

HB King
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Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) plans to headline an event in New Hampshire next week sponsored by the bipartisan group No Labels, a move that has stoked speculation that he could mount a third-party presidential bid in 2024 that Democrats fear could be damaging to President Biden.

Manchin is scheduled to appear Monday at the group’s “Common Sense” town hall at St. Anselm College alongside former Utah governor Jon Huntsman (R). No Labels is eying a potential “unity” ticket in 2024, though organizers say no decision has been made.

The Democrat from West Virginia has not announced whether he is seeking reelection next year for his Senate seat and has not ruled out an independent 2024 White House bid — a prospect that set off alarm bells among Democrats, who fear he could draw support from Biden and tip the election to former president Donald Trump or another Republican nominee.


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“It is clear that most Americans are exceedingly frustrated by the growing divide in our political parties and toxic political rhetoric from our elected leaders,” Manchin said in a statement provided by No Labels on his appearance. “Our political discourse is lacking engaged debates around common sense solutions to solve the pressing issues facing our nation.”
The statement did not elaborate on his 2024 plans.
No Labels group raises alarms with third-party presidential preparations
Manchin, among the most conservative of Senate Democrats, has shown a willingness to break with his party on some key issues and has been critical of Biden on several fronts in recent months.
Earlier this month, Manchin told Fox News he would not rule out a third-party presidential run.

“Not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out,” Manchin said.
His Senate seat is top target for Republicans as they try to retake the chamber next year. Trump won in West Virginia by nearly 39 percentage points in 2020.


No Labels, fearing the possibility of a 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump, launched what they dubbed an “insurance policy project” for 2024, which would offer a third-party candidate “under the proper environmental conditions.”
Huntsman, who ran for president as a Republican in 2012, alluded to New Hampshire’s position as an early nominating state in a statement.
“New Hampshire has long occupied a unique place in American politics, which makes it a special place to discuss the most important issues facing our country,” Huntsman said. “There’s never been a more critical time to remind ourselves that we are all Americans.”

 
If there was any Presidential election where a third party candidate might have a shot....it's Biden v Trump in 2024.

That said...I don't think Manchin is that candidate.
 
If there was any Presidential election where a third party candidate might have a shot....it's Biden v Trump in 2024.

That said...I don't think Manchin is that candidate.

Probably not,.. But in a Biden vs Trump vs Manchin race I'd have to vote Manchin.
 
Interestingly, I’m really unsure which way manchin would actually cut. Cornel west as a green candidate is what d’s should fear.
Ds? Any Democracy loving American should be very concerned and see through this joke of an attempt to hand the Presidency to the 73 count indictment and counting Tyrant who will destroy the DOJ and end all investigations against him immediately. The experiment would be over and authoritarian rule the future.
 
Ds? Any Democracy loving American should be very concerned and see through this joke of an attempt to hand the Presidency to the 73 count indictment and counting Tyrant who will destroy the DOJ and end all investigations against him immediately. The experiment would be over and authoritarian rule the future.
…or you could just take a Xanax.
 
Consider....
-Current R candidate polling, while highly dubious at this state of the game, shows about 50 Trump, 20 Desantis, 30 everybody else.
-So most aggressively, that means half of R's don't want Trump.
-Perhaps more conservatively, one might say that Desantis is just Trump-lite (or will turn into such), so one could say 30% of R's don't want Trump.

Either of those numbers is a significant number in a general election, and in a choice between Biden and Trump, it would actually be pretty easy to see anti-Trump R's voting for Manchin (or not voting), and there is obviously a substantial number of them. (For the record, if that's my choice, I'm considering both of those options.) The point is, it's not that Trump voters are going to desert him, it's that non-Trump R's will, and Manchin is not a guy they'd throw up all over.

To be sure, some D's might also vote for Manchin, though there is much more coherence in the D party regarding candidates (consider, for example, that Kennedy is only polling around 10 right now). And beyond that, there are likely a lot more D's who view Manchin as having been nothing more than an obstacle that has held them back. It's by no means a giant step for mankind to think Manchin might be a net benefit to Biden.

West, on the other hand, as a green candidate, could draw from the left of Biden's support, while being considerably more unlikely to draw from R's.
 
Consider....
-Current R candidate polling, while highly dubious at this state of the game, shows about 50 Trump, 20 Desantis, 30 everybody else.
-So most aggressively, that means half of R's don't want Trump.
-Perhaps more conservatively, one might say that Desantis is just Trump-lite (or will turn into such), so one could say 30% of R's don't want Trump.

Either of those numbers is a significant number in a general election, and in a choice between Biden and Trump, it would actually be pretty easy to see anti-Trump R's voting for Manchin (or not voting), and there is obviously a substantial number of them. (For the record, if that's my choice, I'm considering both of those options.) The point is, it's not that Trump voters are going to desert him, it's that non-Trump R's will, and Manchin is not a guy they'd throw up all over.

To be sure, some D's might also vote for Manchin, though there is much more coherence in the D party regarding candidates (consider, for example, that Kennedy is only polling around 10 right now). And beyond that, there are likely a lot more D's who view Manchin as having been nothing more than an obstacle that has held them back. It's by no means a giant step for mankind to think Manchin might be a net benefit to Biden.

West, on the other hand, as a green candidate, could draw from the left of Biden's support, while being considerably more unlikely to draw from R's.
Sure, half of Rs don’t want Trump and would prefer another GOP nominee. That doesn’t mean they will vote for a D running third party. I think you’re drastically overestimating GOP voters’ ability to do anything other than vote for the GOP nominee. “No choice!” and all…
 
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Sure, half of Rs don’t want Trump and would prefer another GOP nominee. That doesn’t mean they will vote for a D running third party. I think you’re drastically overestimating GOP voters’ ability to do anything other than vote for the GOP nominee. “No choice!” and all…
Well, reasonable minds can certainly disagree about that. I tend to think it's somewhere between 0-30% (ie, I believe Trump people almost certainly vote for Desantis if he were the nominee, and vice versa), probably in the first or second third-ile. At the end of the day, I still tend to think that the R-Manchin number is slightly more likely to be higher than the D-Manchin number

Btw, it is this kind of micro analysis targeting that drives most election tactics these days. As you note, d’s aren’t going to spend messaging money on trump voters.
 
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Due to his legal issues, Trump has to be on the ballot, so he will go independent if Ronda wins the GOP nomination.

To beat Biden, Republicans need to clutter the ballots as much as possible with Manchin, West, and Kennedy all on the ballot.
 
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