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Northwestern discussion

shakes3858

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Aug 28, 2009
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I've been by this board a few times, but if you don't know me, I'm a Northwestern fan. I've had some great convos on other team's boards the last few weeks. Rutgers fans are hilarious btw.

So here's the deal with Northwestern. Basically, every game this year, we've played to our opponents level. The only thing is we seem to find a way to win in conference (except vs Michigan) and a way to lose out of conference. For example, we played the #4 team in the country who's name I won't say last Saturday. We pulled within 3 in the 4th quarter. We gave up a 3rd and 1 QB sneak. Then gave up a pass on 2nd and 15. Later on a 3rd and 4, the QB ran it in 23 yards for the TD. That did it. On the other hand, we played truly awful against Rutgers (Defense in the second half was outstanding... but everything else was awful). Rutgers is truly truly awful. Ask their board members, they'll tell you in hilarious fashion. We were down 8 late in the 3rd quarter, but got the win. Why are we up and down so much? Can't tell you.

What to watch for:
Offense: I think we have a real lack of explosive play makers. Every drive has to be a short field or an 11 play march picking up lots of 3rd down conversions.


QB: Clayton Thorson is a season vet. I probably don't need to say much to you about him. He did tear his ACL in the bowl game and we played 2 guys early in the season, but since the Michigan game, it's been all Clayton.

RB: Justin Jackson has graduated. Jeremy Larkin was going to be the guy (I thought he was better than Justin Jackson)... but he was forced to retire. Then we had some combination of John Moten, Jesse Brown, and Solomon Vault .. who all are in and out of the lineup with injuries. Our RB room went from Veteran and great to down right scary. Who do we turn to? True freshman Isaiah Bowser has played very well 318 yards in the last 3 games. He's more of a bruising back. He'll make 1 cut and run down hill. He's being backed up by another true freshman Drake Anderson (son of Damien Anderson). Anderson has played in 2 games, and I think the goal is to play him in only 2 more so he can Redshirt. I would do that against Iowa and in the Big Ten Championship if we make it, or the Bowl Game. The other 2 games are Minnesota and Illinois, and those teams suck. The other back up is Chad Hanaoka. He's a walk-on senior that spent his first year as part of the staff that filmed practices. Now he's playing meaningful snaps. He was honored by his teammates being given the #1 jersey which goes to the hardest working guy.

WR and other pass catchers: Flynn Nagel is having great year. He's top 2 or 3 in receptions and receiving yards in the big ten. He had a gigantic game against Nebraska and has been less utilized since. Is that because defenses aren't leaving him in single coverage? I don't know enough. Flynn is of the "I can get open" mold. The other guy is Bennett Skowronek. At 6'4'', he's of the "Throw it up for grabs and I'll go get it" mold. Cameron Green is the other target. He's a superback which is like a tight end, but the do other things so they're "super." Depending on the match-up he can use his size or speed.

Oline: lot of injuries early in the season meant a lot of guys were playing. I think we're back to having our starting 5 playing mostly. We're playing a lot better now than we are. A good dline can get us in trouble. Do you have a speedy SEC style outside pass rusher? That would kick our ass.


Defense: Mike Hankwitz is the best defensive coordinator in college football. I said it. We've built the defense for teams like Iowa and Wisconsin that are power rushing teams. In the upcoming years, I'm more scared of a spread system that Nebraska is using under Frost.

Dline: Best players are Joe Gaziano who's a big DE with pass rushing ability. Jordan Thompson is a mainstay at DT. Explosive at the point of attack. Samdup and Alex Miller play nicely as well.

LBs: Paddy Fisher is exactly what I'm talking about when I say we're built for the Iowas of the world. He's listed at 6'4 240... could be 250. He's just fast enough, but I see him struggling with speedy scat backs or having to cover WRs or glorified WRs that are called tight ends. Nate Hall should be a late round draft pick. He's listed at 6-2 231 and could be 240. Nate was injured in last season's bowl practice and re-injured himself early in the season. He's back now.

DBs: Motrae Hartage is a very good CB. You've seen him for 4 years. 2 guys in the secondary went down late in the last game and didn't return. I'd say check the injury report... but our injury report is a joke.


What do you think about the match-up? Is Akrum Wadley still around? Feels like that's been the guy forever. I know your TEs are great. Any WRs I should be worried about? How's the defense? Still playing cover 6 as your base defense?
 
Funny, you mentioned NW finds ways to win conference games. The exact opposite is true of Iowa when the score is close.

If NW is close in the 4th Quarter, you have to like their chances.

The game likely boils down to quarterback play. If Stanley has a decent game, Iowa will likely win by double digits. If Stanley keeps NW in the game, like I said, I like NW's chances.
 
I dont care if northwestern is 1-6 they have kf's number

KF is 8-9 vs NW. The problem is we lose the close games. Iowa is 1-7 against NW during KF’s tenure when the game is decided by a TD or less.

The ISU series pretty much mirrors the NW series with Iowa holding and 11-9 edge but 3-7 in games decided by a TD or less.

So let’s look at the B1G under Kirk first overall and then games decided by a TD or less:

Illinois 9-3 1-1
Indiana 10-5 1-3
Minnesota 14-6 4-4
Michigan 7-5 4-2
Michigan St 7-8 4–4
Maryland 2-1 0-1
Nebraska 4-3 0-2 (B1G games only)
Northwestern 8-9 1-7
Ohio St 2-8 0-2
Penn St 8-7 5-2
Purdue 10-6 3-2
Rutgers 1-0 1-0
Wisconsin 7-11 2-6

89-72 overall 26-36 decided by a TD or less.

Non conference games look like this:

Overall 53-20 12-13

6-20 vs ISU, NW, and Wisconsin in close ball games under KF. Yikes.
 
KF is 8-9 vs NW. The problem is we lose the close games. Iowa is 1-7 against NW during KF’s tenure when the game is decided by a TD or less.

The ISU series pretty much mirrors the NW series with Iowa holding and 11-9 edge but 3-7 in games decided by a TD or less.

So let’s look at the B1G under Kirk first overall and then games decided by a TD or less:

Illinois 9-3 1-1
Indiana 10-5 1-3
Minnesota 14-6 4-4
Michigan 7-5 4-2
Michigan St 7-8 4–4
Maryland 2-1 0-1
Nebraska 4-3 0-2 (B1G games only)
Northwestern 8-9 1-7
Ohio St 2-8 0-2
Penn St 8-7 5-2
Purdue 10-6 3-2
Rutgers 1-0 1-0
Wisconsin 7-11 2-6

89-72 overall 26-36 decided by a TD or less.

Non conference games look like this:

Overall 53-20 12-13

6-20 vs ISU, NW, and Wisconsin in close ball games under KF. Yikes.
Thanks for the post. Assuming your data is all correct, I didn’t realize the Hawks have been that bad in close games under Ferentz
 
Funny, you mentioned NW finds ways to win conference games. The exact opposite is true of Iowa when the score is close.

If NW is close in the 4th Quarter, you have to like their chances.

The game likely boils down to quarterback play. If Stanley has a decent game, Iowa will likely win by double digits. If Stanley keeps NW in the game, like I said, I like NW's chances.
I think it comes down to your Oline vs our front 7. I feel like when Iowa wins vs Northwestern it's because your Oline and backs ran us over. Then our safeties play up and your WR run past them on a play action with a deep post route. They're wide open and it's an easy throw.

2012 3.0 yards per carry NU wins 28-17 and averages 7.1 yards per carry
2013 3.3 yards per carry. Iowa wins 17-10 due to NUs terrible offense
2014 4.8 yards per carry. Iowa wins 48-7 and runs us over
2015 5.7 yards per carry. Iowa wins 40-10 and runs us over
2016 1.7 yards per carry NU wins 38-31 and stuffs the run
2017 3.2 yards per carry NU wins 17-10 offense plays just well enough


I know, I know... I'm really not making a point other than when you're successful you win the game. But yeah, I'm kind of saying if NU wins when we're on offense, it'll be because of QB play. If Iowa wins when you're on offense, it'll be because you ran us over with the oline.
 
I think it comes down to your Oline vs our front 7. I feel like when Iowa wins vs Northwestern it's because your Oline and backs ran us over. Then our safeties play up and your WR run past them on a play action with a deep post route. They're wide open and it's an easy throw.

2012 3.0 yards per carry NU wins 28-17 and averages 7.1 yards per carry
2013 3.3 yards per carry. Iowa wins 17-10 due to NUs terrible offense
2014 4.8 yards per carry. Iowa wins 48-7 and runs us over
2015 5.7 yards per carry. Iowa wins 40-10 and runs us over
2016 1.7 yards per carry NU wins 38-31 and stuffs the run
2017 3.2 yards per carry NU wins 17-10 offense plays just well enough


I know, I know... I'm really not making a point other than when you're successful you win the game. But yeah, I'm kind of saying if NU wins when we're on offense, it'll be because of QB play. If Iowa wins when you're on offense, it'll be because you ran us over with the oline.

Normally, I would agree 100% with you.

But this is a different Iowa team. The passing game has been opened up a lot more. It's no longer a run-dominated offense. Much more balanced.
 
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Who knows? The pressure to win is on Northwestern. Iowa is playing for bowl positioning and pride. NW is playing for a B1G West championship. If we just relax and have fun, we should win this game. If we don't and it's a nail biter, we ain't gonna win.
 
IMO - I fully expect the Iowa coaching staff to be outcoached again by PF and sadly lose another one.
 
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