As 2022 wound down, a few lonely Democrats floated an idea: With House Republicans threatening to use the debt limit to extort concessions from Democrats in 2023, why not disable this tactic for good? Their suggestion went nowhere. Some Democrats even seemed to relish the coming confrontation, apparently believing it could be “won.”
Now the country is hurtling toward defaulting on its debts, and those who demanded action are being vindicated. Democrats are second-guessing the assumption that pressure can make Republicans raise the debt limit without conditions, as recognition sinks in that Republicans really may be willing to allow default, bringing economic catastrophe.
“When you get to the intersection of sane and crazy, they generally go crazy every time,” Democratic strategist James Carville told us. “Why would anybody think they wouldn’t do this?”
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Democrats appear to be acting on this dawning recognition, albeit belatedly. In the House, they’ve initiated the “discharge petition” process, which could ultimately force a vote on a debt ceiling increase without the permission of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).
What’s more, the New York Times reports that some Biden advisers are debating a constitutional way out: Under the theory that not paying the United States’ bills would violate the 14th Amendment, the Treasury Department could simply keep paying them after the debt limit is breached.
This immediate situation is entirely the fault of Republicans. They raised the debt limit three times under the last GOP president without incident. It’s ludicrous to demand concessions — especially spending cuts that are so radical in scale that Republicans refuse to go into detail about them — in exchange for covering spending that Congress already appropriated.
But if Republicans are really this reckless — and they are — Democrats still don’t seem prepared on a fundamental level to accept the full consequences of this. There are no signs President Biden will even contemplate the 14th Amendment solution or any other one outside traditional processes. The White House press secretary flatly declared that Biden “will not entertain scenarios” that don’t involve Congress lifting the debt limit.
That suggests the White House still seems to be trying to locate the magical level of pressure on Republicans — again, that this standoff can be “won.” Biden has invited congressional leaders to negotiate on a budget next week — while insisting the debt limit itself is nonnegotiable — which still seems like a search for the correct display of “reasonableness” to enable Democrats to blame Republicans for default.
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But the House Republican caucus is more radical today than it was during the standoffs of 2011 and 2013. Back then, GOP leaders such as Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Rep. John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) had reservoirs of sanity and limits to the political damage they’d tolerate. McCarthy is much more beholden to the radicals in his ranks.
“The speaker is in a much weaker position within his own conference than John Boehner was 12 years ago,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) told us. “That ought to be a four-alarm-er for anybody who wants to land this economic plane safely.”
Or, as Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) put it, Republicans “started this crisis … but I don’t know whether Kevin McCarthy has the political capital to end it.”
It’s possible, of course, that Democrats are right, that Republicans might end up backing down. It’s also possible that Biden can offer fig-leaf concessions to Republicans that allow a handful of GOP moderates to join Democrats in lifting the debt limit.
But there’s a deep contradiction baked into the Democratic position. Democrats know a sizable swath of Republicans see default — or deep spending cuts, which would also damage the economy — as probably the best or only shot at ousting Biden. Yet if that’s the case, then why would anyone count on the right kind of pressure making Republicans cave?
After all, for some GOP members, particularly the radicals demanding confrontation, the theory seems to be that the Biden presidency is an emergency, so if damaging the economy would weaken his chances at reelection, it’s the “right” thing to do. As Carville told us: “The president would be smart to assume that they will take the insane course, and prepare for it."
Sure, the 14th Amendment solution is a fraught one: It might wreak short-term havoc on markets and the Supreme Court might strike it down. But it might be worth trying, because in the near term there may be no other way to functionally eliminate the debt ceiling as a weapon of political extortion once and for all.
So if default looms, Biden should be prepared to act dramatically to defend the country. Let Republicans demand that the Supreme Court plunge the country into economic disaster. The legal question should be tested. There may be five justices ready to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.
The alternative is lurching from crisis to crisis. “Even if we get through this time, it will continue to be a dangerous weapon that we have to completely reform once and for all,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), who has pushed for disabling the debt limit, told us. “MAGA Republicans aren’t suddenly going to go away.”
The only language extortionists understand is to take the weapon of extortion away from them. It’s a tragedy that this didn’t happen in 2022, and we’re all paying the price.
Now the country is hurtling toward defaulting on its debts, and those who demanded action are being vindicated. Democrats are second-guessing the assumption that pressure can make Republicans raise the debt limit without conditions, as recognition sinks in that Republicans really may be willing to allow default, bringing economic catastrophe.
“When you get to the intersection of sane and crazy, they generally go crazy every time,” Democratic strategist James Carville told us. “Why would anybody think they wouldn’t do this?”
ADVERTISING
Democrats appear to be acting on this dawning recognition, albeit belatedly. In the House, they’ve initiated the “discharge petition” process, which could ultimately force a vote on a debt ceiling increase without the permission of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).
What’s more, the New York Times reports that some Biden advisers are debating a constitutional way out: Under the theory that not paying the United States’ bills would violate the 14th Amendment, the Treasury Department could simply keep paying them after the debt limit is breached.
This immediate situation is entirely the fault of Republicans. They raised the debt limit three times under the last GOP president without incident. It’s ludicrous to demand concessions — especially spending cuts that are so radical in scale that Republicans refuse to go into detail about them — in exchange for covering spending that Congress already appropriated.
But if Republicans are really this reckless — and they are — Democrats still don’t seem prepared on a fundamental level to accept the full consequences of this. There are no signs President Biden will even contemplate the 14th Amendment solution or any other one outside traditional processes. The White House press secretary flatly declared that Biden “will not entertain scenarios” that don’t involve Congress lifting the debt limit.
That suggests the White House still seems to be trying to locate the magical level of pressure on Republicans — again, that this standoff can be “won.” Biden has invited congressional leaders to negotiate on a budget next week — while insisting the debt limit itself is nonnegotiable — which still seems like a search for the correct display of “reasonableness” to enable Democrats to blame Republicans for default.
Press Enter to skip to end of carousel
But the House Republican caucus is more radical today than it was during the standoffs of 2011 and 2013. Back then, GOP leaders such as Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Rep. John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) had reservoirs of sanity and limits to the political damage they’d tolerate. McCarthy is much more beholden to the radicals in his ranks.
“The speaker is in a much weaker position within his own conference than John Boehner was 12 years ago,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) told us. “That ought to be a four-alarm-er for anybody who wants to land this economic plane safely.”
Or, as Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) put it, Republicans “started this crisis … but I don’t know whether Kevin McCarthy has the political capital to end it.”
It’s possible, of course, that Democrats are right, that Republicans might end up backing down. It’s also possible that Biden can offer fig-leaf concessions to Republicans that allow a handful of GOP moderates to join Democrats in lifting the debt limit.
But there’s a deep contradiction baked into the Democratic position. Democrats know a sizable swath of Republicans see default — or deep spending cuts, which would also damage the economy — as probably the best or only shot at ousting Biden. Yet if that’s the case, then why would anyone count on the right kind of pressure making Republicans cave?
After all, for some GOP members, particularly the radicals demanding confrontation, the theory seems to be that the Biden presidency is an emergency, so if damaging the economy would weaken his chances at reelection, it’s the “right” thing to do. As Carville told us: “The president would be smart to assume that they will take the insane course, and prepare for it."
Sure, the 14th Amendment solution is a fraught one: It might wreak short-term havoc on markets and the Supreme Court might strike it down. But it might be worth trying, because in the near term there may be no other way to functionally eliminate the debt ceiling as a weapon of political extortion once and for all.
So if default looms, Biden should be prepared to act dramatically to defend the country. Let Republicans demand that the Supreme Court plunge the country into economic disaster. The legal question should be tested. There may be five justices ready to declare the debt ceiling unconstitutional.
The alternative is lurching from crisis to crisis. “Even if we get through this time, it will continue to be a dangerous weapon that we have to completely reform once and for all,” Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), who has pushed for disabling the debt limit, told us. “MAGA Republicans aren’t suddenly going to go away.”
The only language extortionists understand is to take the weapon of extortion away from them. It’s a tragedy that this didn’t happen in 2022, and we’re all paying the price.
