ORANGE CITY, Iowa — It would be easy to conclude from the polls that Donald Trump will cruise to victory in Iowa’s caucuses in January. But spend a week in the state, as I did recently, and it becomes far less certain that the former president will start off the primary season with an early victory.
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There’s one big reason for this: Iowa’s evangelical Christian community is not yet sold on him.
All the campaigns know that the state’s evangelical voters are key to winning here. Their choice has won the past four caucuses, and their early backing for Pat Robertson in 1988 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 propelled their national campaigns. If Trump is going to lose, it will be because evangelicals have weighed him on the scales and found him wanting.
I talked to Iowa evangelical pastors and grass-roots leaders, who understand the nuances of their community better than any pollster. Their message was surprisingly uniform: Iowa’s evangelicals haven’t made up their minds yet. Many retain affinity for Trump and might still back the former president. But they are taking advantage of the candidates’ frequent trips here to kick the tires and see whether there’s someone they like better — someone, I was repeatedly told, without so much baggage.
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That sentiment was particularly strong in Sioux County, where I spent half of my trip. The area, in Iowa’s far-northwest corner, is home to the nation’s largest concentration of Dutch Americans, a devoutly religious and conservative population. The county has backed religious and cultural conservatives in GOP caucuses since 1996. It is so conservative that it supported religious conservative Gary Bauer over the more moderate George W. Bush in the 2000 caucuses, as did two neighboring counties.
It wasn’t hard to find churchgoing evangelicals in the area considering Trump alternatives. In fact, not a single person I spoke to was planning to support Trump in the caucuses, although they all said they would grudgingly vote for him in the general election.
Nor was it hard to uncover what bothered them about the former president: his character. As the Rev. Joel Kok of Covenant Christian Reformed Church told me, “If you want someone to focus on the policies, it might be better to get away from Trump.”
That doesn’t mean there wasn’t some sympathy for Trump as he faces an unprecedented flurry of indictments. John Klompien, pastor of Calvary Christian Reformed Church, spoke for many when he posited that the indictments and their extensive media coverage was being used to keep the focus on Trump and thereby “draw attention away from other candidates who could defeat [President] Biden.”
Nevertheless, the names of other Republican candidates kept popping up in my conversations. Most people had seen the ubiquitous television ads for South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Vivek Ramaswamy has also made an impression, as has Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. No one mentioned former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley or any of the lower-ranking candidates.
Mike Pence drew mixed reads. In early July, the former vice president visited Sioux Center, the largest city in the county. Former state senator Dave Mulder is a fan, saying Pence is “a Christian man who believes in prayer.” But Mulder is an exception. Mark Volkers, a congregant at the Calvary Christian Reformed Church, captured the views of most people I spoke to: “Pence is a good man,” he told me, “but he’s so vanilla when it comes to campaigning. Does he even have a chance?”
That sentiment — that the religious evangelical is looking for a person of character who can win — is good news for DeSantis. A couple of my interviewees were behind him; all were at least considering him. The governor also appears to be the most active in the state these days. Klompien mentioned that a DeSantis staffer had knocked on his door, and he frequently received pro-DeSantis door hangers. That might be anecdotal, but it serves as evidence that DeSantis’s ground game is up and running.
That could matter greatly in the coming months. The DeSantis campaign has correctly noted that Iowa evangelicals typically consolidate behind their eventual favorite after Labor Day. In fact, elections guru Nate Silver examined polls from the Des Moines Register going back all the way to 1980 and found that only 7 of the 15 candidates who led the pack in late summer went on to win the state. Three of the winners saw their huge leads plummet by at least 14 points by caucus night.
Of course, whoever wins Iowa is by no means destined to win the GOP nomination. And anything can happen in 4½ months. Maybe Trump commands a silent majority who will make their preferences known on caucus night. But don’t be surprised if that doesn’t turn out to be true.
Make sense of the news fast with Opinions' daily newsletterThere’s one big reason for this: Iowa’s evangelical Christian community is not yet sold on him.
All the campaigns know that the state’s evangelical voters are key to winning here. Their choice has won the past four caucuses, and their early backing for Pat Robertson in 1988 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 propelled their national campaigns. If Trump is going to lose, it will be because evangelicals have weighed him on the scales and found him wanting.
I talked to Iowa evangelical pastors and grass-roots leaders, who understand the nuances of their community better than any pollster. Their message was surprisingly uniform: Iowa’s evangelicals haven’t made up their minds yet. Many retain affinity for Trump and might still back the former president. But they are taking advantage of the candidates’ frequent trips here to kick the tires and see whether there’s someone they like better — someone, I was repeatedly told, without so much baggage.
Press Enter to skip to end of carousel
That sentiment was particularly strong in Sioux County, where I spent half of my trip. The area, in Iowa’s far-northwest corner, is home to the nation’s largest concentration of Dutch Americans, a devoutly religious and conservative population. The county has backed religious and cultural conservatives in GOP caucuses since 1996. It is so conservative that it supported religious conservative Gary Bauer over the more moderate George W. Bush in the 2000 caucuses, as did two neighboring counties.
It wasn’t hard to find churchgoing evangelicals in the area considering Trump alternatives. In fact, not a single person I spoke to was planning to support Trump in the caucuses, although they all said they would grudgingly vote for him in the general election.
Nor was it hard to uncover what bothered them about the former president: his character. As the Rev. Joel Kok of Covenant Christian Reformed Church told me, “If you want someone to focus on the policies, it might be better to get away from Trump.”
That doesn’t mean there wasn’t some sympathy for Trump as he faces an unprecedented flurry of indictments. John Klompien, pastor of Calvary Christian Reformed Church, spoke for many when he posited that the indictments and their extensive media coverage was being used to keep the focus on Trump and thereby “draw attention away from other candidates who could defeat [President] Biden.”
Nevertheless, the names of other Republican candidates kept popping up in my conversations. Most people had seen the ubiquitous television ads for South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. Vivek Ramaswamy has also made an impression, as has Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. No one mentioned former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley or any of the lower-ranking candidates.
Mike Pence drew mixed reads. In early July, the former vice president visited Sioux Center, the largest city in the county. Former state senator Dave Mulder is a fan, saying Pence is “a Christian man who believes in prayer.” But Mulder is an exception. Mark Volkers, a congregant at the Calvary Christian Reformed Church, captured the views of most people I spoke to: “Pence is a good man,” he told me, “but he’s so vanilla when it comes to campaigning. Does he even have a chance?”
That sentiment — that the religious evangelical is looking for a person of character who can win — is good news for DeSantis. A couple of my interviewees were behind him; all were at least considering him. The governor also appears to be the most active in the state these days. Klompien mentioned that a DeSantis staffer had knocked on his door, and he frequently received pro-DeSantis door hangers. That might be anecdotal, but it serves as evidence that DeSantis’s ground game is up and running.
That could matter greatly in the coming months. The DeSantis campaign has correctly noted that Iowa evangelicals typically consolidate behind their eventual favorite after Labor Day. In fact, elections guru Nate Silver examined polls from the Des Moines Register going back all the way to 1980 and found that only 7 of the 15 candidates who led the pack in late summer went on to win the state. Three of the winners saw their huge leads plummet by at least 14 points by caucus night.
Of course, whoever wins Iowa is by no means destined to win the GOP nomination. And anything can happen in 4½ months. Maybe Trump commands a silent majority who will make their preferences known on caucus night. But don’t be surprised if that doesn’t turn out to be true.
