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POLL: Predict the Monday Markets

What's your best guess where the US Markets will close on Monday?

  • Total voters
    61
  • Poll closed .
What Would Jesus Do?

What Would Jesus Do?

HB King
Nov 28, 2010
87,913
42,778
113
Maryland
Will Lucy Trump snatch the football away . . . again?

Will the markets rally?

Will the markets tank further?

Is the market fairly valued now, or does it need to retreat even more to achieve some semblance of sanity?

NOTE: This poll is supposed to close around 1am Monday morning EST. So get your vote in early.
 
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I'm voting for it to be down some but leveling off.

That's partly because I don't think Trump is going to make any huge changes until the R Congress passes the current efforts to cut taxes, cut Medicaid, and do other things that the rich want. These tariffs and the market angst have thoroughly distracted most Americans from what else is going on. Trump won't want to give up that advantage yet.

I could be wrong.
 
Last edited:
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The Asian bourses will open before this poll closes. So feel free to vote now, and then adjust before going to bed.

When do the futures start appearing? The places I usually check don't appear to have updated since Friday.
 
Whiskeydeltadeltatango said:
Because I've seen this pivot recently, may I ask what "caving" looks like to you?


I predict down Monday, rocky Tuesday, up Wednesday, down Thursday up Friday.
Click to expand...
Trumps long term plan is to bring back manufacturing to the US. He has said that very clearly. No one will build here unless the tariffs are permanent. NO NEGOTIATIONS! He has said himself no negotiations. Any signs of negotiations will signal these are nothing but another fake ploy.

He has already set the stage to cave.
 
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Gimmered said:
Trump will cave on his tariff plan and the markets will respond well. Trump will declare victory and his base will dance.
Click to expand...
Entirely plausible.

The question I've been pondering for the last couple of days is "why is he waiting?" There a few reasons I can think of, but I don't know if any of them are correct.

1. He's dragging it out longer this time to convince people that he can't be counted on to quickly reverse course. Bad policy, but good strategy.

2. He's milking this and grabbing all the headlines while his congressional allies slip poison pills through the legislative process with minimal attention. As already mentioned, tax cuts for the rich, making previous cuts permanent, cutting Medicaid, cutting food stamps, defunding regulatory agencies, and so on.

3. His insider trading buddies wanted a longer-term market rope-a-dope - either to make more money, or to make it less obvious that there's massive corruption involved in these market-ganking schemes.
 
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Gimmered said:
Trumps long term plan is to bring back manufacturing to the US. He has said that very clearly. No one will build here unless the tariffs are permanent. NO NEGOTIATIONS! He has said himself no negotiations. Any signs of negotiations will signal these are nothing but another fake ploy.

He has already set the stage to cave.
Click to expand...
Amazing how he can get away with taking totally opposite positions at the same time.
 
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What Would Jesus Do? said:
Entirely plausible.

The question I've been pondering for the last couple of days is "why is he waiting?" There a few reasons I can think of, but I don't know if any of them are correct.

1. He's dragging it out longer this time to convince people that he can't be counted on to quickly reverse course. Bad policy, but good strategy.

2. He's milking this and grabbing all the headlines while his congressional allies slip poison pills through the legislative process with minimal attention. As already mentioned, tax cuts for the rich, making previous cuts permanent, cutting Medicaid, cutting food stamps, defunding regulatory agencies, and so on.

3. His insider trading buddies wanted a longer-term market rope-a-dope - either to make more money, or to make it less obvious that there's massive corruption involved in these market-ganking schemes.
Click to expand...

Mar-a-Lago Accord, Schmar-a-Lago Accord

Anatomy of a bad idea
www.ft.com

 
I voted up a bit. I’d like to change my vote. Bitcoin tanking
 
What Would Jesus Do? said:
Will Lucy Trump snatch the football away . . . again?

Will the markets rally?

Will the markets tank further?

Is the market fairly valued now, or does it need to retreat even more to achieve some semblance of sanity?

NOTE: This poll is supposed to close around 1am Monday morning EST. So get your vote in early.
Click to expand...
IMO the market was overvalued about 2 or 3 percent. The rest is Trump's doing, he owns it.
 
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random guess it opens down 1% and trades in red until last couple hours but then ends closing up 2-3%
 
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What Would Jesus Do? said:
Will Lucy Trump snatch the football away . . . again?

Will the markets rally?

Will the markets tank further?

Is the market fairly valued now, or does it need to retreat even more to achieve some semblance of sanity?

NOTE: This poll is supposed to close around 1am Monday morning EST. So get your vote in early.
Click to expand...
Mad Men Not Great Bob GIF
 
HROT said:
I voted up a bit. I’d like to change my vote. Bitcoin tanking
Click to expand...
Go ahead and change your vote.

Personally I expect everything to be down early, but I'm not sure it will stay that way.

I do not expect Trump to say "just kidding" but if the trauma is excessive, he might take some steps to staunch the bleeding.

I could see him cutting a few partners some slack. Maybe cut tariffs on Japan and S.Korea down to the 10% minimum. Maybe someone in Europe has licked his boots enough. Probably not Denmark.

I'm assuming he doesn't want to cut the BRICS nations any slack. But at the same time, he wants better relations with India. So maybe india?
 
desihawk said:
random guess it opens down 1% and trades in red until last couple hours but then ends closing up 2-3%
Click to expand...
That won't surprise me, but I think that will take some market-moving event or statement. Which could happen.

If you're Trump and you're roiling the markets in significant part to make money (selling short and whatever), you have to bring back the market fairly soon. But that doesn't mean you have to let rise and then settle. Let it rise and then yank the chain again.

I just think that having waited this long, he may let it play out a few more days before "rescuing" it.
 
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Bobcat07 said:
We went from "Sometimes the best strategy in a negotiation is convincing the other side that you are crazy" to this in three days. Life comes at you fast.

View embedded media
Click to expand...
I still remember Lewis Black saying the only way to deal with china, north korea, russia and iran was to elect reagan again (after he had been dead for years).
Point being to negotiate with crazy go higher.
 
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