Post election thoughts... the day after.

[MitchLL]

Given the stunning results in Virginia and Kentucky, I think it's safe to say the GOP/RNC has been forced into reevaluating their strategies going forward.

Even though local results don't always reflect National trends, the National perception by many voters will be that the nation is not happy with the Republican Party right now. The chaos in the WH and the criminal implications of Trump's actions seem to have taken a toll.

The one absolute, indisputable takeaway from Tuesday's voting is that the Democrats and their supporters are HIGHLY motivated as evidenced by turnout. High voter turnout is nearly always a bad sign for the Party in power. There can be little dispute Trump has energized the Dems.
I suspect we'll see massive $$$ contributions to the Democratic Party.

The question for the GOP is how to stop the bleeding?

 

[DFSNOLE]

IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING! TRUMP 2020!

On my knees for the GOP,

@IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life

 

[BioHawk]

While these are local elections the GOP strategy has been to nationalize all of them. So, it's a bit stronger indicator of where the GOP is nationally than may have existed in the past.

 

[lucas80]

I expect 2020 will somehow get even more vicious and social warfare oriented than I already feared. Trump’s best shot is to scare the piss out of every Christian identifying white voter in America.

 

[naturalmwa]

Let’s not help them out.

You cons have nothing to fear. Just keep loyal to Trump and he will bring you home. America loves you.

 

[OrlandNole]

I expect 2020 will somehow get even more vicious and social warfare oriented than I already feared. Trump’s best shot is to scare the piss out of every Christian identifying white voter in America.

I’m a white Christian and Trump already scares the piss out of me.

 

[aflachawk]

Given the stunning results in Virginia and Kentucky, I think it's safe to say the GOP/RNC has been forced into reevaluating their strategies going forward.

Even though local results don't always reflect National trends, the National perception by many voters will be that the nation is not happy with the Republican Party right now. The chaos in the WH and the criminal implications of Trump's actions seem to have taken a toll.

The one absolute, indisputable takeaway from Tuesday's voting is that the Democrats and their supporters are HIGHLY motivated as evidenced by turnout. High voter turnout is nearly always a bad sign for the Party in power. There can be little dispute Trump has energized the Dems.
I suspect we'll see massive $$$ contributions to the Democratic Party.

The question for the GOP is how to stop the bleeding?

virginiua has been turning blue for years. This is just a continuation of the trendline. In Ky the governor was one of the most unpopular in the country. That state will will still be in the GOP column come November. Thinking those two election mean bigger is silly

 

[JohnBasedow]

Kentucky was an embarrassing defeat for Trump. Straight from the horses mouth.

 

[BioHawk]

virginiua has been turning blue for years. This is just a continuation of the trendline. In Ky the governor was one of the most unpopular in the country. That state will will still be in the GOP column come November. Thinking those two election mean bigger is silly

Just keep telling yourself that. Everything is fine and there is no need to worry.

 

[Kenneth Griffin]

Bevins was up 5% in the last poll before trump showed up and then lost. Haha thanks don!

 

[noleclone2]

No lie is too big for their spoon fed cult members

 

[St. Louis Hawk]

virginiua has been turning blue for years. This is just a continuation of the trendline. In Ky the governor was one of the most unpopular in the country. That state will will still be in the GOP column come November. Thinking those two election mean bigger is silly

Krusty is coming.
Krusty is coming.

 

[sober_teacher]

virginiua has been turning blue for years. This is just a continuation of the trendline. In Ky the governor was one of the most unpopular in the country. That state will will still be in the GOP column come November. Thinking those two election mean bigger is silly

You're right in that we shouldn't overreact to either result. But...Trump personally campaigned for the KY Governor the day before. Arguably, he did more harm than good, even referring to Bevins as "a pain in the a**" at the rally.

At the least, it will encourage Democrats to put more resources perhaps into challenging Mitch for the KY Senate seat next year.

Lastly, it's definitely not going to be a pleasant 2020 campaign season.

 

[Hawk It Up]

So, what do republican candidates do next summer? Do they ask Trump to campaign for them? Will he ask them to appear with him in their states?

I'm generally referring to the 4-5 Senate republicans facing tough races (enough to flip the Senate). Gardner (CO), Collins, (ME), Thillis (NC), McSally (AZ), Ernst (IA)

Or do they politely decline?

I could easily see Gardner, Collins and Thillis telling the WH to pound sand if Trump shows up in their states.

 

[3 and Out on D]

Remember 2012, when if you just watched Fox News W. Mitt Romney was easily winning the election and the Romney people were prepared for a smashing victory.

Something unexpected to them happened on the way to the polls.

So when his niece is telling you something about polls, think of the three dollar bill.

 

[theiacowtipper]

virginiua has been turning blue for years. This is just a continuation of the trendline. In Ky the governor was one of the most unpopular in the country. That state will will still be in the GOP column come November. Thinking those two election mean bigger is silly

You know that Moscow Mitch has lower approval ratings in Kentucky right?

 

[theiacowtipper]

So, what do republican candidates do next summer? Do they ask Trump to campaign for them? Will he ask them to appear with him in their states?

I'm generally referring to the 4-5 Senate republicans facing tough races (enough to flip the Senate). Gardner (CO), Collins, (ME), Thillis (NC), McSally (AZ), Ernst (IA)

Or do they politely decline?

I could easily see Gardner, Collins and Thillis telling the WH to pound sand if Trump shows up in their states.

There’s no way Trump campaigns for Gardner and Collins. He will campaign for the rest.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

Just keep telling yourself that. Everything is fine and there is no need to worry.

Let me reiterate for our Trump acolytes...everything is fine and there is no need to worry. Seriously.

 

[Monzon]

The question for the GOP is how to stop the bleeding?

Only way is for Trump to go away, and in a "heart attack/incapacitated" way. Impeachment won't take away his pulpit or his Twitter, and the 30% who would still vote for him even if he shot someone on 5th Ave would hang on his every word.

And that's not very solid odds, despite the man's age or obesity.

 

[Hawk It Up]

There’s no way Trump campaigns for Gardner and Collins. He will campaign for the rest.

So, he comes to Iowa, proclaims his love and adoration for farmers & ethanol, and they shuffle back to their pick-ups and mutter, "Lyin' sumanabitch. And screw Ernst too for backin' his play".

And if he goes into Arizona and starts trashing an astronaut in favor of a woman who is only the incumbent because Doocy appointed her to the seat after she lost the last Senate race to a lesbian, we can safely add AZ as a Dem Senate pickup.

I wonder just how many think he is an actual asset to him in some places. He comes with a risk and everyone knows it up front.

 

[ICHawk-I]

Caught some of the results. Looks like some of the races the rural areas went blue. If that is the case the GOP is in big trouble. Trumpism may not be as strong as it used to be. The nation is tiring of the corruption.

GOP Senators might be wondering today if Trump will be poison to their re-election campaigns next year and it might change their minds on any Senate trial of Trump.

 

[Hawk It Up]

GOP Senators might be wondering today if Trump will be poison to their re-election campaigns next year and it might change their minds on any Senate trial of Trump.

I think they already know that Trump isn't a help but rather a hindrance. At least in the battle-ground states. (AZ, NC, CO, IA). In solid red states they couldn't care less. They are safe and if Trump shows up, he won't hurt em. But that isn't a good strategy for retaining the Senate.

And it's only going to get worse for them as the impeachment process goes along. Because I don't think the first layer of the onion is done being peeled yet. There's more to come. Bet on it.

 

[DooBi]

Good analysis by OP. I think the gop will be motivated as much or more than last time but clearly the dems will be as well. 2020 could be the highest turnout in history and the dems could still win in a landslide.

 

[hexumhawk]

I expect 2020 will somehow get even more vicious and social warfare oriented than I already feared. Trump’s best shot is to scare the piss out of every Christian identifying white voter in America.

I think you are undervaluing the gains in black and Latino voters that Trump has made. I know you wont hear this from the current media state but it is a real thing.

 

[hawkssox1]

Given the stunning results in Virginia and Kentucky, I think it's safe to say the GOP/RNC has been forced into reevaluating their strategies going forward.

Even though local results don't always reflect National trends, the National perception by many voters will be that the nation is not happy with the Republican Party right now. The chaos in the WH and the criminal implications of Trump's actions seem to have taken a toll.

The one absolute, indisputable takeaway from Tuesday's voting is that the Democrats and their supporters are HIGHLY motivated as evidenced by turnout. High voter turnout is nearly always a bad sign for the Party in power. There can be little dispute Trump has energized the Dems.
I suspect we'll see massive $$$ contributions to the Democratic Party.

The question for the GOP is how to stop the bleeding?

In States where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1 yeah big surprise what a joke.

 

[hexumhawk]

The other thing to think about is this is a natural ebb and flow of politics in this country. Go back and look at the stats.

 

[hawkssox1]

Good analysis by OP. I think the gop will be motivated as much or more than last time but clearly the dems will be as well. 2020 could be the highest turnout in history and the dems could still win in a landslide.

Doobi how appropriate.

 

[theiacowtipper]

I think the big story is Virginia. Democrats will gerrymander the crap out of that state and be able to pick up a seat or two in the house.

 

[sober_teacher]

I think you are undervaluing the gains in black and Latino voters that Trump has made. I know you wont hear this from the current media state but it is a real thing.

Exit polls would argue otherwise.

 

[hexumhawk]

Exit polls would argue otherwise.

Well if the polls say so....

 

[tarheelbybirth]

I think the big story is Virginia. Democrats will gerrymander the crap out of that state and be able to pick up a seat or two in the house.

And the SC can't touch it. It'll be up to VA courts to decide if they are too gerrymandered.

 

[theiacowtipper]

Well if the polls say so....

What about that graphic was proven untrue?

 

[sober_teacher]

Well if the polls say so....

You really don't understand probabilities do you? That's not a guarantee of Hillary winning, and I would hope you would be able to admit that with the EC we have, if one candidate wins the popular vote (which national polls predicted), he/she is probably going to win the EC 8 or 9 times out of 10.

btw, that has nothing to with your prior polls about Trump making gains amongst minorities. Trump lost badly amongst minorities in 2016.

 

[Huey Grey]

Last night gives me hope that we can give Joni her walking papers.

 

[hexumhawk]

You really don't understand probabilities do you? That's not a guarantee of Hillary winning, and I would hope you would be able to admit that with the EC we have, if one candidate wins the popular vote (which national polls predicted), he/she is probably going to win the EC 8 or 9 times out of 10.

btw, that has nothing to with your prior polls about Trump making gains amongst minorities. Trump lost badly amongst minorities in 2016.

Well of course he lost "badly" with minorities. Anyone with an (R) next to their name loses badly with minorities and have for years. Great job btw of the dems keeping their voters actually suppressed for the last 50 years. Problem is you are seeing people finally wake up in these camps that have been left behind by the party that was supposed to be lifting them up.


USA TODAY
"Today's @realDonaldTrump approval ratings among black voters: 36%," Rasmussen said in a tweet. "This day last year: 19%."

That is a staggeringly high number for a man who only won 8 percent of the African-American vote in 2016.

 

[Hawk It Up]

Last night gives me hope that we can give Joni her walking papers.

Phoni as some cash in the bank, but Theresa Greenfield out raised her last Q. She is gonna beat Phoni over the head with Trump, tariffs, and impeachment.

And this is a race the DNC and DCCC can afford to pump money into and will. Joni is gonna get some help from the RCCC, but not to the percentage Greenfield will.

I say this under the pretty strong assumption that Greenfield will be the nominee, obviously.

 

[Huey Grey]

Phoni as some cash in the bank, but Theresa Greenfield out raised her last Q. She is gonna beat Phoni over the head with Trump, tariffs, and impeachment.

And this is a race the DNC and DCCC can afford to pump money into and will. Joni is gonna get some help from the RCCC, but not to the percentage Greenfield will.

I say this under the pretty strong assumption that Greenfield will be the nominee, obviously.

Joni is currently sitting on a 39% approval rating. This number delights me.

 

[Menace Sockeyes]

Well of course he lost "badly" with minorities. Anyone with an (R) next to their name loses badly with minorities and have for years. Great job btw of the dems keeping their voters actually suppressed for the last 50 years. Problem is you are seeing people finally wake up in these camps that have been left behind by the party that was supposed to be lifting them up.


USA TODAY
"Today's @realDonaldTrump approval ratings among black voters: 36%," Rasmussen said in a tweet. "This day last year: 19%."

That is a staggeringly high number for a man who only won 8 percent of the African-American vote in 2016.

Rasmussen..LOL...
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-poll-impeachment-inquiry-african-american-voters-1467193

 

[theiacowtipper]

Republicans in Kentucky may be seeking to overturn the governor's results. The Senate majority leaders says that the legislature, controlled by Republicans, may ultimately decide the winner of the election, due to unspecified irregularities. Crossing my fingers for this, as it would further expose the corruption that is the Republican Party.

https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

 

[sober_teacher]

Rasmussen..LOL...
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-poll-impeachment-inquiry-african-american-voters-1467193

Has anyone seen how GOP candidates did last night with minorities?