Democrat Angela Alsobrooks has pulled clearly ahead in Maryland’s unusually competitive U.S. Senate race with a double-digit lead among likely voters, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, in a contest critical to deciding control of the chamber next year.
Alsobrooks leads Republican Larry Hogan — a former governor elected twice in the deep-blue state — by 11 percentage points among likely voters, even though the poll shows Hogan has won over a sizable portion of Democrats and remains about as popular with voters as his rival.
With tens of millions of dollars yet to be spent on the airwaves, a debate ahead and national attention locked on to the race, Alsobrooks’s 51 percent to 40 percent advantage is significant and demonstrates momentum, but it is not enough to put a Hogan upset out of the question.
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Democrats outnumber Republicans in Maryland by more than 2 to 1. Independent voters, including those affiliated with the Green and Libertarian parties, make up nearly a quarter of the electorate and typically swing for Democratic candidates in presidential elections but have helped Republicans win three out of the last six governor’s races. Maryland is expected to give its 10 electoral college votes to Vice President Kamala Harris in November. The poll finds she leads former president Donald Trump 63 percent to 31 percent.
“The task for Alsobrooks is pretty challenging because a lot of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Hogan, and changing that is not necessarily easy,” said University of Maryland political scientist Michael Hanmer, director of the university’s Center for Democracy and Civil Engagement, which co-sponsored the poll. “I think she’s made a lot of headway.”
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Maryland’s race is among a handful that could determine which party shapes the country’s agenda through control of the Senate, but it is the only deeply Democratic state in play and a close contest could siphon resources from swing states.
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Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate in four decades and President Joe Biden won here by 33 percentage points in 2020. Yet, Hogan’s track record as a pragmatic, two-term governor with an anti-Trump brand — and a history of pulling off a big upset — has kept the race relatively competitive.
Democratic voters and moderates switching allegiance from Hogan to Alsobrooks have been key to Alsobrooks’s improved standing since March. Back then, early polling showed Hogan with a clear early advantage while Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, was unknown to most voters — despite leading one of the state’s largest jurisdictions. A Post-UMD poll then showed moderates favoring Hogan by 22 points; now they favor Alsobrooks by 16 points. In addition, Alsobrooks’s 20-point advantage among Democrats in March has swollen to a dominant 57-point margin over Hogan now.
Alsobrooks, who started her political career as the Prince George’s County prosecutor, has benefited from voters growing more familiar and fonder of her.
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In particular, she’s benefited from lopsided support from the voters who want Democrats to control the U.S. Senate. Those voters — about 6 in 10 — have shifted decisively in support of Alsobrooks over the past six months: In March, 61 percent backed Alsobrooks and now 83 percent do.
Jay Anderson, 73 and a retiree who lives on Kent Island, is a swing voter who twice cast a ballot for Hogan for governor. This time, he’s voting for Alsobrooks out of concern over which party controls the Senate, he said.
“I like Larry Hogan. I voted for him. But I’m not comfortable with him being in the Senate because of what it might mean for the majority,” Anderson said. “I just fear having any kind of Republican influence in Congress.”
He added that he cannot trust that Hogan will be able to remain independent amid intense political pressure from the rest of the GOP. “I don’t think Larry Hogan can control his future and his actions the way he did in Maryland,” he said.
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While Anderson doesn’t know much about Alsobrooks, he has heard good things from people more familiar with her record and, most importantly, he knows she is a Democrat. “That’s good enough for me,” he said.
Control of the Senate has been a key message from Alsobrooks and her Democratic allies, including the pro-abortion rights group Emily’s List, who in large part have not attacked Hogan on anything but his party affiliation and his record on abortion.
Democrats spent heavily to frame a vote for Hogan as empowerment of the Republican Party and a threat to core Democratic priorities, particularly reproductive rights. Hogan and his allies, also spending millions, have told voters he’s an independent maverick who wouldn’t be beholden to either party. The former governor, who has long said he was personally against abortion, has repositioned himself as a “pro-choice” Republican.
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In some ways, Hogan’s independent marketing has paid dividends: He is outperforming Trump statewide by nine percentage points among likely voters, with the support of 84 percent of registered Republicans, as well as 18 percent of registered Democrats and 48 percent of independents. While 46 percent of registered voters believe the lifelong Republican would support the policies of GOP leaders if he were elected, 43 percent believe he would act independently.
Alsobrooks leads Republican Larry Hogan — a former governor elected twice in the deep-blue state — by 11 percentage points among likely voters, even though the poll shows Hogan has won over a sizable portion of Democrats and remains about as popular with voters as his rival.
With tens of millions of dollars yet to be spent on the airwaves, a debate ahead and national attention locked on to the race, Alsobrooks’s 51 percent to 40 percent advantage is significant and demonstrates momentum, but it is not enough to put a Hogan upset out of the question.
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Democrats outnumber Republicans in Maryland by more than 2 to 1. Independent voters, including those affiliated with the Green and Libertarian parties, make up nearly a quarter of the electorate and typically swing for Democratic candidates in presidential elections but have helped Republicans win three out of the last six governor’s races. Maryland is expected to give its 10 electoral college votes to Vice President Kamala Harris in November. The poll finds she leads former president Donald Trump 63 percent to 31 percent.
“The task for Alsobrooks is pretty challenging because a lot of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Hogan, and changing that is not necessarily easy,” said University of Maryland political scientist Michael Hanmer, director of the university’s Center for Democracy and Civil Engagement, which co-sponsored the poll. “I think she’s made a lot of headway.”
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Follow Politics
Maryland’s race is among a handful that could determine which party shapes the country’s agenda through control of the Senate, but it is the only deeply Democratic state in play and a close contest could siphon resources from swing states.
Advertisement
Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate in four decades and President Joe Biden won here by 33 percentage points in 2020. Yet, Hogan’s track record as a pragmatic, two-term governor with an anti-Trump brand — and a history of pulling off a big upset — has kept the race relatively competitive.
Democratic voters and moderates switching allegiance from Hogan to Alsobrooks have been key to Alsobrooks’s improved standing since March. Back then, early polling showed Hogan with a clear early advantage while Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, was unknown to most voters — despite leading one of the state’s largest jurisdictions. A Post-UMD poll then showed moderates favoring Hogan by 22 points; now they favor Alsobrooks by 16 points. In addition, Alsobrooks’s 20-point advantage among Democrats in March has swollen to a dominant 57-point margin over Hogan now.
Alsobrooks, who started her political career as the Prince George’s County prosecutor, has benefited from voters growing more familiar and fonder of her.
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In particular, she’s benefited from lopsided support from the voters who want Democrats to control the U.S. Senate. Those voters — about 6 in 10 — have shifted decisively in support of Alsobrooks over the past six months: In March, 61 percent backed Alsobrooks and now 83 percent do.
Jay Anderson, 73 and a retiree who lives on Kent Island, is a swing voter who twice cast a ballot for Hogan for governor. This time, he’s voting for Alsobrooks out of concern over which party controls the Senate, he said.
“I like Larry Hogan. I voted for him. But I’m not comfortable with him being in the Senate because of what it might mean for the majority,” Anderson said. “I just fear having any kind of Republican influence in Congress.”
He added that he cannot trust that Hogan will be able to remain independent amid intense political pressure from the rest of the GOP. “I don’t think Larry Hogan can control his future and his actions the way he did in Maryland,” he said.
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While Anderson doesn’t know much about Alsobrooks, he has heard good things from people more familiar with her record and, most importantly, he knows she is a Democrat. “That’s good enough for me,” he said.
Control of the Senate has been a key message from Alsobrooks and her Democratic allies, including the pro-abortion rights group Emily’s List, who in large part have not attacked Hogan on anything but his party affiliation and his record on abortion.
Democrats spent heavily to frame a vote for Hogan as empowerment of the Republican Party and a threat to core Democratic priorities, particularly reproductive rights. Hogan and his allies, also spending millions, have told voters he’s an independent maverick who wouldn’t be beholden to either party. The former governor, who has long said he was personally against abortion, has repositioned himself as a “pro-choice” Republican.
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In some ways, Hogan’s independent marketing has paid dividends: He is outperforming Trump statewide by nine percentage points among likely voters, with the support of 84 percent of registered Republicans, as well as 18 percent of registered Democrats and 48 percent of independents. While 46 percent of registered voters believe the lifelong Republican would support the policies of GOP leaders if he were elected, 43 percent believe he would act independently.
