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Potential for #1 Seed?

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hawkquiz

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Jan 27, 2007
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I'm probably crazy to even bring it up! But right now we are ranked #5 in the AP poll. If Michigan beats Illinois today, and we take care of biz against Nebbie and Wisconsin, does that get us up to a #4 ranking?
A big assumption, but if we win out this week, and make it at least to the final of the Big Tourney, would that be enough for a #1 seed? Of course, if would have to be losing to Michigan in the finals of the Big. Otherwise, we'd have to at minimum win the Big Tourney if its not against Michigan.
As it sits right now, Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan look like pretty much locks for a #1 seed...battle for that fourth spot
 
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I think it’s worth your time to speculate but beating Nebraska and then Wisconsin seems to me worth thinking about a bit more , after that happens we’re in great shape
 
What is most interesting to me is that their are 4 Big Ten Teams positioned in the top 8. Would they double us up in a bracket or spread us out. Would be cool to see Iowa, Mich, Illinois, OSU in separate brackets as 1/2 seeds.

It would be huge for us to secure the 4/5 spot. Avoiding the top 3 seeds until Final Four is huge.
 
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I honestly don't even see what the debate is. If we win our last two games and make the BTT finals (presumably with a win over Illinois), I think we are a lock for top 4 ranking going into the tourney and a 1 seed.
 
HawkRose said:
What is most interesting to me is that their are 4 Big Ten Teams positioned in the top 8. Would they double us up in a bracket or spread us out. Would be cool to see Iowa, Mich, Illinois, OSU in separate brackets as 1/2 seeds.

It would be huge for us to secure the 4/5 spot. Avoiding the top 3 seeds until Final Four is huge.
Click to expand...

The top 4 teams in each conference are supposed to be split up if they are on the first 4 lines per seeding guidelines BUT this year that may be completely impossible.
 
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I think if Iowa were to get to the finals we are a #1 if Alabama and West Virginia don't win their conference tournaments. Who else would be worthy, an Illinois team we just beat in semis in that scenario?
 
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OutbackBowl2017 said:
Iowa will have to win out - reg season and B1G tourney to pull a number one seed.
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I do not think Iowa will need to win the B1G tourney to get a number one seed. If Iowa wins its next two games, it will secure third place in the B1G tournament. If Iowa at least makes the finals of the B1G tournament, that means Iowa will have beaten Illinois as long as Illinois does not lose on Friday in the tournament.

The championship of the B1G tournament will be played late Sunday afternoon. Most of the NCAA tournament teams and slots will be determined before this game has finished. It will help Iowa’s cause if the Illini lose at either or both Michigan tonight and OSU on Saturday, which could move Iowa up to a number one seed prior to the B1G tournament.

This would help Iowa from having to potentially face Gonzaga until the Final Four. Many of the brackets I have seen this week have Iowa as a number two seed in the same bracket as Gonzaga right now because Michigan and Illinois are number one seeds.
 
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The B1G is far and away the best conference. Very deserving on two #1 seeds. Illinois finishes with the same two game stretch Iowa just completed. They would certainly make, if not cement, a claim for a 1 seed if they sweep those games.

It would be best for Iowa imo if Illinois lost tonight but bear Ohio St. Ohio St would be out of the picture. The Iowa/Illinois semi game , if they meet, would be a de facto play in for a 1 seed. Alabama could still spoil the party, WV as well especially if they knock of Baylor tonight.

This “March Situation” is a hell of a lot more fun that ones of the past
 
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TheTruthTheWholeTruth said:
The B1G is far and away the best conference. Very deserving on two #1 seeds. Illinois finishes with the same two game stretch Iowa just completed. They would certainly make, if not cement, a claim for a 1 seed if they sweep those games.

It would be best for Iowa imo if Illinois lost tonight but bear Ohio St. Ohio St would be out of the picture. The Iowa/Illinois semi game , if they meet, would be a de facto play in for a 1 seed. Alabama could still spoil the party, WV as well especially if they knock of Baylor tonight.

This “March Situation” is a hell of a lot more fun that ones of the past
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I completely agree that this year is a lot more fun to follow than in years past where I’m checking every article out there to see who has the Hawkeyes in the tournament and who doesn’t. 2 seed seems the most likely at this point, but a 1 would cement this amazing year like no other. I could see us falling to a 3 potentially if we can’t take care of nebby or wisky and would be a little disappointed if we fell there, but think about all the years we would’ve killed to be a 3 seed or even apart of the big dance.
 
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OutbackBowl2017 said:
Iowa will have to win out - reg season and B1G tourney to pull a number one seed.
Click to expand...

History suggests this is accurate. Only a small handful of 1-seeds have lost as many as 7 games in the regular season, none have lost 8 or more (conference tournament included). Though, the B1G is historically tough, so maybe if Iowa loses a heartbreaker to Michigan in OT or something in the BTT finals (assuming that Neb and Wisc are wins as well), a case *could* be made for an 8-loss Iowa nabbing the last 1-seed.
 
if Iowa wins BTT, #1 seed.
finals loss, needs help. Baylor wins B12, Bama loses, Nova? Etc.

Iowa is most likely to be in bracket w Baylor as non #1. Avoiding repeats when possible versus Mich, Gonzaga, Ill? And as 6ish on S-curve. getting to 5th against worst #1 would be key.
 
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OutbackBowl2017 said:
Iowa will have to win out - reg season and B1G tourney to pull a number one seed.
Click to expand...
There are probably three teams locked into #1 seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan. The other one is what is up for grabs. It will go to either Houston, one of Illinois or Iowa pending BTT results, Alabama, or possibly OSU in the right circumstance. I think most people in the country expect there to be 2 Big Ten #1 seeds, but the BTT could cannibalize that.

Houston has no shot left at any big wins to improve their resume, but that also likely means no more losses until selection Sunday. They've only played one ranked team that they beat. They may back into the 4th spot if they don't lose and Illinois and Iowa falter. But every other team has a better shot at improving their resume from here on out.

Illinois has two top 10 games left, plus whatever happens in the BTT. If they win both of those and get to the BTT title game, they are probably the 4th #1 seed, unless Iowa beats them in the BTT game. But the BTT bracket may not line up for that possibility to happen. Win out and they are easily the last 1 seed.

Iowa has a top 25 game left in Wisconsin, plus whatever happens in the BTT. If they win these last two and get to the BTT title game, they have a shot at the 4th #1 seed. It depends upon who they beat in the BTT and who they lose to. Beat a decent mid-pack team and Illinois then lose a close one to someone respected like Michigan or Purdue in the title game and I think we still have a good shot to jump Houston to get the #1. A 3 loss Houston could complain, but they haven't played even remotely as close of a schedule as ours considering Sunday will be our 12th game against a ranked opponent. Win out and we are likely the last 1 seed.

Alabama has played 4 ranked teams and lost 3 of those games. The SEC is pretty bad, so they only have a shot at beating Arkansas in the SEC tourney to improve their resume. I see them staying on the 2 line if they win out unless a the combo of Houston, Iowa, Illinois, and OSU all falter. Just not enough chances to improve like Illinois, Iowa, or OSU have.

The wildcard is if OSU pulls their game back together and wins out. That would be a win against Illinois, plus likely 2 wins against some combo of Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, or Michigan in the BTT. That would be enough to move them up to the last #1 seed. If they lose to Illinois on Saturday it would be 4 straight losses, 3 of which to current top 10 teams, and would likely put a cap for them on the 2 line.
 
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fezzador said:
History suggests this is accurate. Only a small handful of 1-seeds have lost as many as 7 games in the regular season, none have lost 8 or more (conference tournament included). Though, the B1G is historically tough, so maybe if Iowa loses a heartbreaker to Michigan in OT or something in the BTT finals (assuming that Neb and Wisc are wins as well), a case *could* be made for an 8-loss Iowa nabbing the last 1-seed.
Click to expand...
99% of time brackets are done by time BTT finals starts. Only very minor changes are made if required. Teams don’t get typical champ bump other conferences do since late finish.
 
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fezzador said:
History suggests this is accurate. Only a small handful of 1-seeds have lost as many as 7 games in the regular season, none have lost 8 or more (conference tournament included). Though, the B1G is historically tough, so maybe if Iowa loses a heartbreaker to Michigan in OT or something in the BTT finals (assuming that Neb and Wisc are wins as well), a case *could* be made for an 8-loss Iowa nabbing the last 1-seed.
Click to expand...
Every team currently in position for the last one seed has at least 6 losses. Considering their remaining schedules, there will likely be a one seed with a minimum of seven losses this year.
 
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TheTruthTheWholeTruth said:
It would be a travesty if Houston gets a 1. They don’t deserve any better than a 3 imo
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Alabama doesn't deserve better than a 3 either. Their resume stinks, and have generally looked like hot garbage playing strong opponents (which were few and far between). They are probably a 4-seed quality team.
 
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HawkeyeInCentralIowa said:
The AP ranking doesn’t matter as much as the NET rating when it comes to seeding. We’re going to need to win the tourney to get a 1 seed.
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The NET is a factor but they just don't go off the NET rankings to determine seedings. If they did, Iowa would definitely be more in the running for a 1 seed. The NET is one factor, but a team's resume is a more important factor. Meaning their record against Quad 1 teams in the NET, road record, strength of record, etc.

Iowa's current record against Quad 1 teams is 5-6, and Quad 2 is 6-1. Alabama, another team in the area as Iowa, is 7-4 in Quad 1. Ohio State's is 7-5. Illinois is 8-5 against Quad 1.

Iowa has put itself in a good sport. 2 wins this week likely gets Iowa into a 2 seed regardless of what happens in the BTT. Winning the BTT might get Iowa to the 1 line.
 
hoffmkr said:
if Iowa wins BTT, #1 seed.
finals loss, needs help. Baylor wins B12, Bama loses, Nova? Etc.

Iowa is most likely to be in bracket w Baylor as non #1. Avoiding repeats when possible versus Mich, Gonzaga, Ill? And as 6ish on S-curve. getting to 5th against worst #1 would be key.
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This is exactly how I feel. Alabama and Houston don't have much in the way of big victories ahead of them. Iowa in this scenario will have beaten probably Illinois, one of their direct competitors for that last 1 seed, and one of Michigan, Ohio State, or Purdue, all good to great wins. The wild card may be West Virginia, depending on who they draw in the Big 12, since Baylor and to a lesser extent Kansas would be good wins.
 
As far as NCAA seeding goes, right now I would consider Iowa to be:

A lock for a #5 seed, where I think we would end up if we end the season 0-3.

A virtual lock for a #4, in which we only need to beat Nebraska to obtain.

In position for a #3 as long as we beat Nebraska and pick up one more solid win vs. Wisconsin or in BTT.

A likely #2 seed, which would be "status quo" - where Iowa would end up if they win every game that they're supposed to (win next 3 then lose to Illinois).

In control of their own destiny for a #1 seed - Winning out would get them this in almost certainty, assuming they would have to beat both Illinois and Michigan.
 
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hawkquiz said:
I'm probably crazy to even bring it up! But right now we are ranked #5 in the AP poll. If Michigan beats Illinois today, and we take care of biz against Nebbie and Wisconsin, does that get us up to a #4 ranking?
A big assumption, but if we win out this week, and make it at least to the final of the Big Tourney, would that be enough for a #1 seed? Of course, if would have to be losing to Michigan in the finals of the Big. Otherwise, we'd have to at minimum win the Big Tourney if its not against Michigan.
As it sits right now, Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan look like pretty much locks for a #1 seed...battle for that fourth spot
Click to expand...


I posted this in the Bracketology thread.

Iowa is a #2 seed, per Bracket Matrix.

Rooting interests: Similar to what @TheTruthTheWholeTruth posted in a thread from today, we not only want Illinois & OSU to lose, but check out the teams starting with Alabama, West Virginia, etc. in the right hand column; ideally these teams lose, too, this week and next.


March 1, Per Bracket Matrix:

...............................................................1 seed (#1 overall) Gonzaga
1 seed (#2 overall)--Michigan
...............................................................1 seed (#3 overall) Baylor
1 seed (#4 overall)--Illinois


2 seed (#5 overall)--Ohio State
..............................................................2 seed (#6 overall) Alabama
2 seed (#7 overall)--Iowa
..............................................................2 seed (#8 overall) West Virginia


..............................................................3 seed (#9 overall) Houston
..............................................................3 seed (#10 overall) Villanova
..............................................................3 seed (#11 overall) Florida State
..............................................................3 seed (#12 overall) Kansas

5 seed (#18 overall)--Purdue
6 seed (#24 overall)--Wisconsin
8 seed (#31 overall)--Rutgers @MrsScrew
9 seed (#35 overall)--Maryland


OTHERS:
12 seed (#45 overall)--Drake



LINK to that thread: https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/thre...owa-a-3-bracket-matrix-iowa-a-2.322785/page-9
 
well that was fun, think Illinois has it wrapped up now. The ups and downs of college basketball are crazy
 
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