So you got my love for wrestling research activated 255 so I will let you all know just how Iowa is going to win the NCAA title this season. First, I took the average placements points of every single All-American in the 2015 NCAA tournament (I wanted to do 2014+2013 as well, but I still have other homework I need to finish tonight before class tomorrow, a project for another time for sure.) to give a somewhat concrete number that we can establish for hypothetical placement and placement points for our guys.
Average 2015 NCAA AA finish pts
1st: Average came to 23.85 -> 24
2nd: Average came to 17.85 -> 18
3rd: Average came to 16.6 -> 16.5
4th: Average came to 13.95 -> 14
5th: Average came to 12
6th: Average came to 10
7th: Average came to 8.5
8th: Average came to 6
Our guys:
125: Thomas Gilman, Do I think the NCAA Semis last year was a fluke? Yes. Can i prove it? No. But I don't think that will happen again this year when Gilman makes the finals, and he makes his way to the finals to face off against either Tomasello or Megaludis in my opinion. I think Gilmans floor this next year is 3rd, but I think he finds his way to the finals and loses a close one. +18
133: Cory Clark, Nobody in the country thinks that anybody can stop Brewer this season except Iowa fans. Cory Clark is a true competitor and I will his will to win scrambles and defensive situations, as well as his wide arsenal of offense, which is very effective with proper setups. His style is a lot like McDonough in my opinion with a little more slickness in some moves. I think he makes his way to his second NCAA final and gets revenge on Brewer, they are neck and neck, and Clark is great at making adjustments for opponents. Champ. +24
141: Brody Grothus, He has the heart of a lion and if you listened to him on takedown radio you will know how much inter00nal drive he has to be in this lineup and help this team win an NCAA title, and also accomplish his own goals. 2 years ago he beat the top 4 finishers at 149. Last year off to a good start then injured. He has a lot to prove for himself and will be a big time player if he can manage the cut well. The Iowa homer in me wants to predict a top 5 finish but a lot of things can happen especially over a 3 day tournament. I'll predict conservatively for now and say he takes about 7th. +8.5
149: Brandon Sorensen. 4th as a Freshman and last years finalists are gone. But a new addition to the weight with Zain Retherford will prove to be a very tough obstacle in his path. Most feel Zain is the new favorite at the weight and Sorensen has shown he is right there with Tsirtsis but holds the disadvantage in the series 1-2. It will be a 3 way dogfight and I will again stay conservative here and give Sorensen a 3rd place finish, nothing to scoff at and is a legitimate NCAA champ contender at the weight. +16.5
157: Cooper/Rhoads?, Not sure who is going here for sure but I might be leaning towards Cooper as Rhoads spot started for Moore at 165 last year and we saw Cooper go once or twice I believe at 157. I'm hoping whoever we put out there can be competitive enough to get about 2.5 pts at NCAAs. 2-2. +2.5
165: Burke Paddock, I'm looking for the same out of 165 as 157 this season, to be competitive and score some team points, hopefully get a few wins good chance for the freshman to prove himself. 2-2. +2.5
174: Alex Meyer, Finally Alex's time to shine in the lineup and think he will take it and run with it. He is a legit title contender at this weight with how it clears out. He has wins over Crutchmer, Butler, and Brunson(Maybe Julson will have to check on this). Us Hawkeye fans know how good Alex will be this year, especially with how the weight clears out, but a name to lookout for is Nickal from PSU, will have to see how he adds to the mix. But as of now my pick for Meyer is 3rd, he is prone to giving up his legs at times and it may bite him, but he has shown to be a come from behind and backside warrior. +16.5
184: Sammy Brooks, Things are looking great for Sammy Brooks this year, especially if he is healthy all season. It appears Gabe Dean will be redshirting and this opens up at the top, as I feel there is a lot of parity at this weight. Everyone else comes back though in terms of AAs. We all know how tough and dynamic Brooks is when hes healthy, and if he brings that to the table I see no reason why he can't win it this year, but i'm staying somewhat conservative and will say top 5, about 4th. He beat the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 8th finishers last year, lost to the 1st and 4th, (Dean and Stauffer). I'd say hes near the top of this pack. +14.
197: Nathan Burak, Things clear out a bit in this weight class for Mr consistent. Hes been mainly beating people he 'should' beat and losing to people who finish higher than him at NCAAs. Schiller is gone who has been his kryptonite for a while, Snyder is redshirting, Gadsen gone. McIntosh, Hartmann, and Cox return, and theres been various rumors surrounding the Cox situation regarding RS/moving to hwt/staying at 97. But I'll assume hes still there, and I'll give Burak at 3rd place finish. He might be able to squeak into the finals, but he hasn't had any success against McIntosh or Cox. I think he could beat that Hartmann fellow from Duke IMO. +16.5
285: Sam Stoll, another freshman I'm excited to see, hopefully will see some pins throughout the season with Greco throws. But I just haven't seen the evidence that hes with the top guys at this weight, lost to MIzzous hwt last year 2 or 3 times who was in the 12-16 range of guys. Will he be able to hang with most people, probably, but i'm not sure he'll be able to beat the top guys. I'm predicting about a 2-2 finish for his first NCAA's but as with all of these predictions, are subject to change due to future variables. 2-2. +2.5
QUICK RECAP:
125: Gilman 2nd +18
133: Clark 1st +24
141: Grothus 7th +8.5
149: Sorensen 3rd +16.5
157: Cooper 2-2 +2.5
165: Paddock 2-2 +2.5
174: Meyer 3rd +16.5
184: Brooks 4th +14
197: Burak 3rd +16.5
285: Stoll 2-2 +2.5
Team: 1st - 121.5 pts
I think even with this somewhat optimistic overall finish its all pretty realistic in my perception, feel free to let me know what is unrealistic if you disagree. The few areas that might be points of contention for rival fans would probably be Grothus, Meyer and Brooks I'm assuming, but while Grothus has yet to be proven Meyer and Brooks are both proven IMO. Its still above 100 points even if you take away Grothus/Cooper/Paddock/Stoll. But I don't think its that far of a stretch at all to see Gilman/Clark/Sorensen/Meyer/Brooks/Burak all top 4. Maybe to be even more conservative puts Meyer and Brooks in the top 6 Category, but that doesn't hurt the overall points total even that badly, its still in the upper 90s.
102 pts won the whole shebang last season, and it still puts us in striking distance no matter what.
***Some Variables to consider that may obviously alter the predictions
A. How Grothus adjusts to his new weight
B. Who our 157 lber is and how he progresses
C. How Grothus handles multiple day weigh ins as well
D. How the freshman at 165 and 285 make an impact
E. How Meyer and Brooks prove themselves
I think Gilman/Clark/Sorensen/Burak are locks for top 4 in my opinion, and I believe Meyer and Brooks have the ability to be in that group as well, but have a bit lower floor to maybe be in the 5-8 range as well. I would like to hear PSU's predictions for how each of their guys will finish at the weight, as you have to figure they plan on Champs from Megaludis, Retherford, and McIntosh, and AA finishes out of Conaway/Gulibon/Nolf/Nickal/Nevills. I agree Nickal and Nevills will be good, but i'm not sold on the two of them as much as Nolf. A lot of crazy stuff happens and neither of them have had the signature win that Nolf got over their RS year. Basically for the same reason many opposing fans are skeptical of Grothus i'm skeptical of those two. So PSU fans might want to write them in as AA locks, i don't consider them to be yet.
