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So you got my love for wrestling research activated 255 so I will let you all know just how Iowa is going to win the NCAA title this season. First, I took the average placements points of every single All-American in the 2015 NCAA tournament (I wanted to do 2014+2013 as well, but I still have other homework I need to finish tonight before class tomorrow, a project for another time for sure.) to give a somewhat concrete number that we can establish for hypothetical placement and placement points for our guys.

Average 2015 NCAA AA finish pts
1st: Average came to 23.85 -> 24
2nd: Average came to 17.85 -> 18
3rd: Average came to 16.6 -> 16.5
4th: Average came to 13.95 -> 14
5th: Average came to 12
6th: Average came to 10
7th: Average came to 8.5
8th: Average came to 6

Our guys:
125: Thomas Gilman, Do I think the NCAA Semis last year was a fluke? Yes. Can i prove it? No. But I don't think that will happen again this year when Gilman makes the finals, and he makes his way to the finals to face off against either Tomasello or Megaludis in my opinion. I think Gilmans floor this next year is 3rd, but I think he finds his way to the finals and loses a close one. +18

133: Cory Clark, Nobody in the country thinks that anybody can stop Brewer this season except Iowa fans. Cory Clark is a true competitor and I will his will to win scrambles and defensive situations, as well as his wide arsenal of offense, which is very effective with proper setups. His style is a lot like McDonough in my opinion with a little more slickness in some moves. I think he makes his way to his second NCAA final and gets revenge on Brewer, they are neck and neck, and Clark is great at making adjustments for opponents. Champ. +24

141: Brody Grothus, He has the heart of a lion and if you listened to him on takedown radio you will know how much internal drive he has to be in this lineup and help this team win an NCAA title, and also accomplish his own goals. 2 years ago he beat the top 4 finishers at 149. Last year off to a good start then injured. He has a lot to prove for himself and will be a big time player if he can manage the cut well. The Iowa homer in me wants to predict a top 5 finish but a lot of things can happen especially over a 3 day tournament. I'll predict conservatively for now and say he takes about 7th. +8.5

149: Brandon Sorensen. 4th as a Freshman and last years finalists are gone. But a new addition to the weight with Zain Retherford will prove to be a very tough obstacle in his path. Most feel Zain is the new favorite at the weight and Sorensen has shown he is right there with Tsirtsis but holds the disadvantage in the series 1-2. It will be a 3 way dogfight and I will again stay conservative here and give Sorensen a 3rd place finish, nothing to scoff at and is a legitimate NCAA champ contender at the weight. +16.5

157: Cooper/Rhoads?, Not sure who is going here for sure but I might be leaning towards Cooper as Rhoads spot started for Moore at 165 last year and we saw Cooper go once or twice I believe at 157. I'm hoping whoever we put out there can be competitive enough to get about 2.5 pts at NCAAs. 2-2. +2.5

165: Burke Paddock, I'm looking for the same out of 165 as 157 this season, to be competitive and score some team points, hopefully get a few wins good chance for the freshman to prove himself. 2-2. +2.5

174: Alex Meyer, Finally Alex's time to shine in the lineup and think he will take it and run with it. He is a legit title contender at this weight with how it clears out. He has wins over Crutchmer, Butler, and Brunson(Maybe Julson will have to check on this). Us Hawkeye fans know how good Alex will be this year, especially with how the weight clears out, but a name to lookout for is Nickal from PSU, will have to see how he adds to the mix. But as of now my pick for Meyer is 3rd, he is prone to giving up his legs at times and it may bite him, but he has shown to be a come from behind and backside warrior. +16.5

184: Sammy Brooks, Things are looking great for Sammy Brooks this year, especially if he is healthy all season. It appears Gabe Dean will be redshirting and this opens up at the top, as I feel there is a lot of parity at this weight. Everyone else comes back though in terms of AAs. We all know how tough and dynamic Brooks is when hes healthy, and if he brings that to the table I see no reason why he can't win it this year, but i'm staying somewhat conservative and will say top 5, about 4th. He beat the 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 8th finishers last year, lost to the 1st and 4th, (Dean and Stauffer). I'd say hes near the top of this pack. +14.

197: Nathan Burak, Things clear out a bit in this weight class for Mr consistent. Hes been mainly beating people he 'should' beat and losing to people who finish higher than him at NCAAs. Schiller is gone who has been his kryptonite for a while, Snyder is redshirting, Gadsen gone. McIntosh, Hartmann, and Cox return, and theres been various rumors surrounding the Cox situation regarding RS/moving to hwt/staying at 97. But I'll assume hes still there, and I'll give Burak at 3rd place finish. He might be able to squeak into the finals, but he hasn't had any success against McIntosh or Cox. I think he could beat that Hartmann fellow from Duke IMO. +16.5

285: Sam Stoll, another freshman I'm excited to see, hopefully will see some pins throughout the season with Greco throws. But I just haven't seen the evidence that hes with the top guys at this weight, lost to MIzzous hwt last year 2 or 3 times who was in the 12-16 range of guys. Will he be able to hang with most people, probably, but i'm not sure he'll be able to beat the top guys. I'm predicting about a 2-2 finish for his first NCAA's but as with all of these predictions, are subject to change due to future variables. 2-2. +2.5

QUICK RECAP:
125: Gilman 2nd +18
133: Clark 1st +24
141: Grothus 7th +8.5
149: Sorensen 3rd +16.5
157: Cooper 2-2 +2.5
165: Paddock 2-2 +2.5
174: Meyer 3rd +16.5
184: Brooks 4th +14
197: Burak 3rd +16.5
285: Stoll 2-2 +2.5
Team: 1st - 121.5 pts

I think even with this somewhat optimistic overall finish its all pretty realistic in my perception, feel free to let me know what is unrealistic if you disagree. The few areas that might be points of contention for rival fans would probably be Grothus, Meyer and Brooks I'm assuming, but while Grothus has yet to be proven Meyer and Brooks are both proven IMO. Its still above 100 points even if you take away Grothus/Cooper/Paddock/Stoll. But I don't think its that far of a stretch at all to see Gilman/Clark/Sorensen/Meyer/Brooks/Burak all top 4. Maybe to be even more conservative puts Meyer and Brooks in the top 6 Category, but that doesn't hurt the overall points total even that badly, its still in the upper 90s.

102 pts won the whole shebang last season, and it still puts us in striking distance no matter what.

***Some Variables to consider that may obviously alter the predictions
A. How Grothus adjusts to his new weight
B. Who our 157 lber is and how he progresses
C. How Grothus handles multiple day weigh ins as well
D. How the freshman at 165 and 285 make an impact
E. How Meyer and Brooks prove themselves

I think Gilman/Clark/Sorensen/Burak are locks for top 4 in my opinion, and I believe Meyer and Brooks have the ability to be in that group as well, but have a bit lower floor to maybe be in the 5-8 range as well. I would like to hear PSU's predictions for how each of their guys will finish at the weight, as you have to figure they plan on Champs from Megaludis, Retherford, and McIntosh, and AA finishes out of Conaway/Gulibon/Nolf/Nickal/Nevills. I agree Nickal and Nevills will be good, but i'm not sold on the two of them as much as Nolf. A lot of crazy stuff happens and neither of them have had the signature win that Nolf got over their RS year. Basically for the same reason many opposing fans are skeptical of Grothus i'm skeptical of those two. So PSU fans might want to write them in as AA locks, i don't consider them to be yet.
 
I'm all with you here, but some Iowa wrestlers need to lose the notion that one takedown wins a match. This approach, in addition to being unwatchable, is a strategy for losing.


Not just Iowa. I see it in most programs and at all levels of college. Even my wife (20 yrs of watching) has stated this watching national duals and nationals last year. This problem also stems down to high school when good kids meet up. HS coaches and wrestlers are scared of single mistake costing them a match. Wrestlers ride this notion into college.

Speaking of riding.....well maybe another time
 
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I like what I am seeing but am amazed people see PSU as having a clear path with no issues and Iowa needs God to come down from heaven for Iowa to place in the top 5. Such crap.
PSU had some unreal luck and a perfect storm of recruiting and all the sudden they are immune to the issues that can plague everyone else? Some of you can, 6 months out, see PSU owning the NCAA but Iowa has to have divine intervention? some of you need a reality check and I guess you will have to see Cael go through what the rest go through. He has no shoe in champions on the level of IMar or Daringer. Yes, he has 3 real tough guys but Zain has not won a title. Nico has not won a title. But some of you see them as champs because they came close or did well in freestyle? By that logic Clark is a shoe in. Three waits have monsters who will have to be beat for someone else to win that weight. the other seven will have to be wrestled.
Give Iowa the same benefit of the doubt you give PSU and the race tightens up quick.
Gilman is a stud.
Clark is a stud.
If Grothus gets his weight under control, he is a stud.
Sorenson is a stud.
Brooks is a stud
Burak is a stud.
We have strong talent at the other 4 weights. Iowa gets its shit together just a little and they can crush the other teams.
At this point, last year means crap. Our guys have improved and are coming off a 2nd place season. Of the stud list above I have spoken personally to 5 of them and they are hungry. The team is hungry, Brands is sick of not being a champion. they all came close and it pissed them off.
Get ready PSU lovers and Iowa haters. Iowa wants to change the game. Give Iowa the same "objectivity" you give PSU. Or.....just sit back and see that pressure, injuries and bad luck can hit happy go lucky fun time PSU just like everyone else.
So sick of PSU love it just makes me want to strangle a mountain goat and eat its young.
AHHHHHHGGGGGGGG!
Question on Brody and apologies if this has been discussed as I don't track the board as often during the off season. How is the weight cut coming along for him? Anyone close to the program have insight? Lots of discussion on this late last season with various opinions on whether this was feasible or not so I'm curious if folks have thoughts on this given he could be so tough at 41 if he can handle managing his weight.

Would like to hear any feedback if someone has insight. Thanks!
 
You might want to check out the IAWrestle Potentially Dangerous podcast. Brody talks about the cut in that interview, and it's an entertaining listen. I don't recall whether he mentioned where his weight was as the time (it was taped about a month ago), but he did talk about how he's on his way down, and he was optimistic about it. Based on that podcast, at least, it's hard not to believe that he'll get his weight down in plenty of time and without much trouble. Seems quite feasible to me. Of course, the proof will be on the mat this winter. . . .
 
Not just Iowa. I see it in most programs and at all levels of college. Even my wife (20 yrs of watching) has stated this watching national duals and nationals last year. This problem also stems down to high school when good kids meet up. HS coaches and wrestlers are scared of single mistake costing them a match. Wrestlers ride this notion into college.

Speaking of riding.....well maybe another time

Regarding the growing tendency to aim to get just one take down in a match, or worse, NONE, etc..(which BTW, I agree with those that feel like this is a sport killer and something needs to be done to break the cycle)

What if, for each wrestler, the first take down was worth 2 points, the second was worth 3 points, the third worth 4 points, etc? I realize that this could be complicated to score during the match in some cases and also that we wouldn't want to "trick up" the scoring so much that it detracts from the dignity of the sport...BUT...these 2-1 and 3-2 snoozefests are already killing the sport IMO.

I think hoping that wrestlers will take more "real" shots in a match, when they have clearly predetermined a "risk minimization" strategy to a match to benefit themselves, is foolhardy. I think we would have far better success changing the rules in some way to reward risk taking(shots) and penalize overly defensive wrestlers.
 
Not getting jobbed during seeding plays a huge part. We need PSU and tOSU to be on the same side of the bracket in a few key weights also.
 
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Regarding the growing tendency to aim to get just one take down in a match, or worse, NONE, etc..(which BTW, I agree with those that feel like this is a sport killer and something needs to be done to break the cycle)

What if, for each wrestler, the first take down was worth 2 points, the second was worth 3 points, the third worth 4 points, etc? I realize that this could be complicated to score during the match in some cases and also that we wouldn't want to "trick up" the scoring so much that it detracts from the dignity of the sport...BUT...these 2-1 and 3-2 snoozefests are already killing the sport IMO.

I think hoping that wrestlers will take more "real" shots in a match, when they have clearly predetermined a "risk minimization" strategy to a match to benefit themselves, is foolhardy. I think we would have far better success changing the rules in some way to reward risk taking(shots) and penalize overly defensive wrestlers.


Or...the first take down is worth 1 point per wrestler and 2 every TD after.
and/or
No riding time without a TD on the score card.
 
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That actually disappoints me. I had assumed he threw a lot of guys right to their back, which is something a lesser wrestler can pull-off against a good wrestler and was why I thought he could pull-off some bonus points at Nationals even if he doesn't make R12. But I don't see him putting anybody flat and turning them at Nationals.
 
That actually disappoints me. I had assumed he threw a lot of guys right to their back, which is something a lesser wrestler can pull-off against a good wrestler and was why I thought he could pull-off some bonus points at Nationals even if he doesn't make R12. But I don't see him putting anybody flat and turning them at Nationals.
 
Not saying Sam won’t throw people, he threw people in H.S. for pins, just tired of people thinking Greco throws are his only technique. He wrestled 5 years of varsity in Folkstyle. As he builds strength and technique at the college level I have to believe he will start dominate more in Folkstyle. His opponents will need to be leery of a multi-facetted offensive approach. He’ll get’er done and the manner in which he does it shouldn't matter.
 
Or...the first take down is worth 1 point per wrestler and 2 every TD after.
and/or
No riding time without a TD on the score card.
Interesting. Hadn't heard that one before; it seems to have some merit.

I personally think one of the bigger problems is that it's too difficult to score from on top, which leads to guys just hanging on instead of looking to score. I really wish they would award one point for any back exposure by the top guy. I think that would open up things a lot.
 
I like what I am seeing but am amazed people see PSU as having a clear path with no issues and Iowa needs God to come down from heaven for Iowa to place in the top 5. Such crap.
PSU had some unreal luck and a perfect storm of recruiting and all the sudden they are immune to the issues that can plague everyone else? Some of you can, 6 months out, see PSU owning the NCAA but Iowa has to have divine intervention? some of you need a reality check and I guess you will have to see Cael go through what the rest go through. He has no shoe in champions on the level of IMar or Daringer. Yes, he has 3 real tough guys but Zain has not won a title. Nico has not won a title. But some of you see them as champs because they came close or did well in freestyle? By that logic Clark is a shoe in. Three waits have monsters who will have to be beat for someone else to win that weight. the other seven will have to be wrestled.
Give Iowa the same benefit of the doubt you give PSU and the race tightens up quick.
Gilman is a stud.
Clark is a stud.
If Grothus gets his weight under control, he is a stud.
Sorenson is a stud.
Brooks is a stud
Burak is a stud.
We have strong talent at the other 4 weights. Iowa gets its shit together just a little and they can crush the other teams.
At this point, last year means crap. Our guys have improved and are coming off a 2nd place season. Of the stud list above I have spoken personally to 5 of them and they are hungry. The team is hungry, Brands is sick of not being a champion. they all came close and it pissed them off.
Get ready PSU lovers and Iowa haters. Iowa wants to change the game. Give Iowa the same "objectivity" you give PSU. Or.....just sit back and see that pressure, injuries and bad luck can hit happy go lucky fun time PSU just like everyone else.
So sick of PSU love it just makes me want to strangle a mountain goat and eat its young.
AHHHHHHGGGGGGGG!

Nobody said this.
 
Rearrange scoring pts and eliminating riding time isn't enough, if anything may lead to tighter wrestling IMO. Although, Im very interested to see how push out works at Night of Conflict.

I believe lack offense to be more philosophical. When I see Carl, DT, BM and LS held in awe because of their styles, I question why kids don't emulate chain more.

They are wrestling most dominating icons of the near past and yet we still r seeing less scoring. Something is amiss....chain and momentum wrestling needs to be an actual top priority in HS and not just preached. To many HS and college coachs are fine with 1-2 shots, hold position, noncommittal reshots, tripods for every escape attempt and then look for win in 3rd period.
 
Ok...well. I will make sure my statements pass rules of evidence going forward.
It was an exaggerated statement to make an over all point which is correct and on point.
 
Ok...well. I will make sure my statements pass rules of evidence going forward.
It was an exaggerated statement to make an over all point which is correct and on point.

Haha...Act of Gable...er God is kind of out there IMO. Tom was having a glass half empty day.
 
Or...the first take down is worth 1 point per wrestler and 2 every TD after.
and/or
No riding time without a TD on the score card.

OR...no riding time can accumulate UNTIL a given wrestler scores a TD. (That might be what you meant, I couldn't tell for sure.) But I definitely support rules changes that "force" action and/or reward risk taking.
 
Interesting. Hadn't heard that one before; it seems to have some merit.

I personally think one of the bigger problems is that it's too difficult to score from on top, which leads to guys just hanging on instead of looking to score. I really wish they would award one point for any back exposure by the top guy. I think that would open up things a lot.

That's another good angle. You could also reduce the reversal from 2 to 1 point, so then the risk/reward ratio is evened out for the top wrestler.
 
Right. With out scoring a take down, you can not accumulate or score riding time.
 
Right. With out scoring a take down, you can not accumulate or score riding time.

So that means conversely you would not be able to have your riding time erased by your opponent unless he has taken you down, correct?
 
Ok...well. I will make sure my statements pass rules of evidence going forward.
It was an exaggerated statement to make an over all point which is correct and on point.

In other words, your opinion, which you perceive be to correct and on point, was supported by attacking a straw man. And if you could, please point to where I anointed PSU champs. I think you're the one who needs a reality check.
 
So that means conversely you would not be able to have your riding time erased by your opponent unless he has taken you down, correct?


Yes. Frankly I think riding time has outlived its welcome but maybe this or something similar can help get action going. Like no 5 team points for a tech without back points. Too many matches have ended on two escapes and a RT point. (2-1 match) That means, very little actually happened. To earn the ability to create or remove RT, you have to take the other guy down. You can still get an early take down and shut down on a guy I guess but that would mean the refs would have to allow it which will happen. Not a perfect idea but at least there is a take down somewhere.
 
I like your thinking, 255, but the refs have been letting guys stall on top for years now. I don't see that changing any time soon -- especially when the stakes are the highest, like at Nationals, when it really counts. We all know lots of whistles get swallowed every March. I still think the simplest solution with regard to rules is to get rid of RT altogether and put a push-out rule in place. Two very simple changes that won't introduce any real complexities for the refs or for scoring, yet they could dramatically increase action. Refs would need to get used to the push-out, but international refs have no problems calling it.

I think we need to avoid making changes that could be overly complex in an effort to tweak the sport here and there. IMO, the fewer and simpler the rules changes, the better.
 
I agree with keeping it simple. Add a push out rule, eliminate the riding time point and bring the wrestlers back to their feet after 30 seconds of mat wrestling. Those changes would increase action and make our style closer to international without adding much complexity.
 
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While mat wrestling may not be the most exciting, it is the equivalent of the running game in football. You can grind the will out of your opponent and still score the "touchdown" slash fall. I don't have a problem with getting rid of riding time or being very aggressive with calling stalling on the top guy. I in fact think the latter has to be implied to keep the integrity of mat wrestling. I have a real problem with just letting guys up after 30 seconds. While I would have loved this as a wrestler, since I sucked at getting out and riding, mat wrestling is what makes folkstyle such a tough sport. It is an absolute mental battle that is playing out that most that have not wrestled can't appreciate. I don't want to get rid of it. I do want the refs to call stalling on top and bottom and reward guys for being aggressive on top and let guys run arm bars a little.

But the Push Out is a no-brainer. These out of bounds stall calls they are trying to implement are F'ing crazy. After watching the Pushing portion of the video I am absolutely convinced the refs are going to lean heavily on just calling action most of the time. The pushing videos looked just like the walking out of bounds videos.

Adding the Push Out rule would appease the change Folk to Free people a little and it just works.
 
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Here's the thing, if the guy on bottom doesn't get out, it's 2-0 so there is going to be a lot of action out of bottom to escape in that 30 seconds. At the same time, I think the rules would have to be tweeked so the top man can't just stall for 30 seconds. Example, instead of a 5 count, hanging on the legs results in an immediate stall point and the wrestlers go to their feet.
 
This is why I say just scrap RT altogether. The top man has less incentive to hang out on top and more incentive to try and make it worth his while by turning the guy. I agree with Don that mat wrestling is an integral part of folkstyle and that it's worth keeping. I think standing them up after 30 seconds of mat wrestling is overly intrusive.

I do like Gobblin's idea of starting every period in neutral. Let tough riders earn their ride with a takedown. We've seen guys who are great riders but not great on their feet basically win their matches from the top position. IMO, starting them from neutral all three periods rewards the versatile wrestler who can score from multiple positions. Plus, there's often more action from neutral -- especially with a push-out rule.

So, to revise my solution to college wrestling, I like the 3-pronged approach:

1. Push-out rule
2. No RT
3. Start each period from neutral

Now, THAT would be a fun sport to watch, and the guys would have no choice but to get after it and keep after it. Put THAT on a mat at the 50-yard line of a full Kinnick stadium and listen to the crowd roar!
 
Disagree with starting on their feet each period. Mat wrestling needs to remain a important aspect of the sport. Wrestlers need to be skilled at each position. Too many lousy mat wrestlers will try to kill time until the last 30 seconds.

Disagree with standing after 30 seconds for the same reason and because it will start to feel like freestyle.

Basically, those strategies are giving up on mat wrestling rather than improving it.

I would prefer to tweak mat wrestling to make it tougher to get by with stalling and easier to score. Imo there is nothing more exciting than back points.

Btw, definitely agree with the push out, and with the general philosophy of keeping rule changes simple.
 
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Push out stays...ability to tag in coaches in OT. These two things and I'm good.
 
Disagree with starting on their feet each period. Mat wrestling needs to remain a important aspect of the sport. Wrestlers need to be skilled at each position. Too many lousy mat wrestlers will try to kill time until the last 30 seconds.

Disagree with standing after 30 seconds for the same reason and because it will start to feel like freestyle.

Basically, those strategies are giving up on mat wrestling rather than improving it.

I would prefer to tweak mat wrestling to make it tougher to get by with stalling and easier to score. Imo there is nothing more exciting than back points.

Btw, definitely agree with the push out, and with the general philosophy of keeping rule changes simple.

I don't view starting them in neutral each period to be giving up on mat wrestling. There will be takedowns -- and more of them, with a push-out rule -- so there will still be mat wrestling. Except the riders will have to earn that position on their own rather than being able to select it when it's their choice. I think there'd still be quite a bit of mat wrestling, actually. As it is, we often see quick escapes, and they're on their feet early in the period. We often see the action return to the mat not long after the escape.
 
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