Question for Trump folks

[RonaldMexico]

As much on him as Biden, absolutely… Trump kept $$ too cheap during his term…and was bad with the free money distribution.. it should have been targeted better…Trump destroyed too many safety nets during his first term in order to make his tax cut for the rich more palatable… and many of these “safety nets” would have been a factor in stabilizing the economy during COVID…Trump failed to protect the supply chains adequately and their 6-9 month demise is the reason for much of the immediate post-COVID inflationary pressures and material shortages.

Not really. Safety nets? Like what specifically. How could he have protected supply chains adequately given a pandemic and a global economy?

As far as interest rates, that was a big part of the problem. Technically that’s not the president it is the fed. And that problem has been going on for 20 years. I absolutely agree that needlessly monetizing our way out of Covid is the fault of Trump and Biden. To put the onus for inflation solely on Biden who took office in 2021 as the numbers had already started to rise quickly is silly. If Trump won in 2020, the inflation numbers would have been exactly the same. He campaigned on the same “relief/stimulus package” numbers as Biden.

I do agree with the wop on the idea that we need to go through a little pain to get where we need to be. It requires both raising taxes and sharp cuts to spending. We are no longer in a place where one or the other can fix this. It will hurt the economy, in the near term. If we don’t, the only way to service the debt will be massive inflation. The kind that will make 2022 look like a sunny day.

 

[jonesy5960]

There are some economic conditions Trump is dealing with that are going to make it difficult. It's fiscally responsible to cut waste, cut people, and fix the border, but none of those things are immediately good for the GDP. Therefore a recession is likely, and while the conditions Trump finds the economy in are certainly a result of Biden, the specific actions trump is taking will have a short term negative impact on GDP, so it's not fair to simply say "this year is on Biden."

I expect that by 1 year from now we'll find ourselves in a MUCH stronger position than we were on October 31, but it's fair to expect some downturn this year.

But we're not talking about GDP. We are talking about the deficit which is mostly the result of last year's budget before Trump was ever in the picture. The next 4 year's deficits/surpluses are a reflection of Trump's administration. In January Real GDP growth was forecasted at around 2.1% and inflation was forecasted at 2.4% for 2025 prior to this administration taking over. We'll see what happens.

Edit: Unemployment was 4% in January as well.

Professional Forecasters’ Past Performance and the 2025 Economic Outlook

A survey shows professional forecasters expect the economy to grow 2.1% in 2025. But how accurate have their predictions been since 1993?

www.stlouisfed.org