RPI is 92 now after Monday carnage....
- Thread starter Hawkeyestate81
- Start date
Let's just beat Wisky and go from there. We are on the bubble for the NIT. Hawks would need at least 20 wins (and probably 21) to get in the dance, or win the BTT.
Yeah still a long ways to go. Have to win tomorrow at a place we haven't won at in a while.
The good thing is all the pressure is on Wisky and not Iowa.
The good thing is all the pressure is on Wisky and not Iowa.
Thats right there as well, would def improve with a win. All of this is moot if we lose tomorrow I agree 100% but they are RIGHT there. Give us MN game back we are in right now F balls!!!!!!!!
I've been playing with the RPI wizard tool and found the following:
If Iowa wins it's next two, we are projected to be at RPI 76, SOS 50. I think everyone agrees that is a must to be in the conversation of an at large prior to the BTT.
Iowa is projected to receive the 8 seed (playing Illinois as the 9); we obviously don't know how that shakes out, but again lets assume a win and then a loss to the #1 seed (Purdue). RPI 69, SOS 40. Right in the range of highest ever at-large selections.
Progressing to a win vs Purdue, then facing likely the 4/5 (from a pool of Michigan St, Minnesota, NW most likely) 20-14
Losing to Minnesota: RPI 57, SOS 34.
Losing to Michigan St: RPI 60, SOS 38.
Losing to NW: RPI 57, SOS 37.
These are all bubble ranges should we manage to lose in the semis.
What if we win in the semis - let's take the Michigan St route as that gives us the conservative view.
Even turning around and losing to Rutgers (and watching them claim the first 5-in-5 in BTT history) would leave us at 21-14, RPI 57, SOS 41. More reasonably playing each of the below and losing in the finals would yield:
Wisconsin: RPI 57, SOS 34
Maryland: RPI 57, SOS 33
Michigan: RPI 57, SOS 34.
So take that analysis for what it is worth. With so few bid thieves out there, I think we're likely to see the bubble expand more than shrink as questionable teams are bounced early from their tournaments.
If Iowa wins it's next two, we are projected to be at RPI 76, SOS 50. I think everyone agrees that is a must to be in the conversation of an at large prior to the BTT.
Iowa is projected to receive the 8 seed (playing Illinois as the 9); we obviously don't know how that shakes out, but again lets assume a win and then a loss to the #1 seed (Purdue). RPI 69, SOS 40. Right in the range of highest ever at-large selections.
Progressing to a win vs Purdue, then facing likely the 4/5 (from a pool of Michigan St, Minnesota, NW most likely) 20-14
Losing to Minnesota: RPI 57, SOS 34.
Losing to Michigan St: RPI 60, SOS 38.
Losing to NW: RPI 57, SOS 37.
These are all bubble ranges should we manage to lose in the semis.
What if we win in the semis - let's take the Michigan St route as that gives us the conservative view.
Even turning around and losing to Rutgers (and watching them claim the first 5-in-5 in BTT history) would leave us at 21-14, RPI 57, SOS 41. More reasonably playing each of the below and losing in the finals would yield:
Wisconsin: RPI 57, SOS 34
Maryland: RPI 57, SOS 33
Michigan: RPI 57, SOS 34.
So take that analysis for what it is worth. With so few bid thieves out there, I think we're likely to see the bubble expand more than shrink as questionable teams are bounced early from their tournaments.
Great info! Teams in front of us keep losing as well. Illinois hopefully will go down tonight to MSU and if we win we tomorrow we will jump them in RPI and they are currently IN on Lunardi bracket. We are so close, I really don't think enough fans realize this. The Bubble is all time weak this year and a ton of P5 teams are going to get bids over Non P5 leagues.
Just win at Wisconsin for now please. I appreciate scenarios as much as the next guy, and I'm not picking on anybody in this thread (even though it probably sounds like I am) but I don't think we need to waste a ton of energy on this yet!
Agree, all I've said is assuming we win tomorrow. We lose it's BTT Finals BEST Case getting us in most likely winning it all.
No worries - I've just got some time to kill and found it interesting. I agree that its likely moot after tomorrow, but just helping frame conversation in case it becomes relevant.
I was very surprised that winning and losing in the Semis/Finals had as little impact as it did. Basically, if we win out and face a top 4 team, we're on the bubble. Winning just adds a Top 50 win to position us among the teams.
edit - was off a round; only semis/finals results are mostly window dressing (except for autobid obviously)
If Iowa can win out and win 1 game in the BTT, I have to believe we would be among 6 teams for last 4 in. If Iowa wins 2 in the BTT, we should definitely be in. Lose tomorrow and it's NIT barring a major run in the BTT IMO.
I wonder how solid NW is if they lose their next two games. It would be comical to see Collins fail to close the deal. Can't root for them after he left the starters in until the 2-minute mark in the Iowa rout.
I wonder how solid NW is if they lose their next two games. It would be comical to see Collins fail to close the deal. Can't root for them after he left the starters in until the 2-minute mark in the Iowa rout.
Why even open the thread? This is what it's all about to me, the speculation and anticipation is almost as much fun as making it.
We are in a 4 game playoff to make the NCAA's. A win at WI would be yuge! Hoping we don't catch Purdue in the BTT, or at least not until the finals. I think they are a tough match up.
As an interesting note... I think we would be an interesting comp to Georgia Tech as we sit right behind them in the RPI, have a better SOS. They have 3 RPI Top 25 Ws (all at home) while we have 1 Top 25 and 2 other Top 30 (Maryland and ISU). If the Turtles and Clones can move up to Top 25 before the committee convenes, it makes our resume appear that much stronger shifting a 2-1 record up to Top 25 territory (making it 3-4 overall).
Also have to look at top 50 wins. That is all the committee is concerned about. The W/L vs top 50 is going to be key.
So a team that goes 1-7 or 2-10 is that good enough??
What about a team that has 4-5 top 50 wins, is that good enough?
I think SOS and RPI are going to rank the teams, but overall the committee sounds like the top 50 wins is going to be a benchmark. So if Iowa can get 1-2 more, that would be HUGE!
So a team that goes 1-7 or 2-10 is that good enough??
What about a team that has 4-5 top 50 wins, is that good enough?
I think SOS and RPI are going to rank the teams, but overall the committee sounds like the top 50 wins is going to be a benchmark. So if Iowa can get 1-2 more, that would be HUGE!
Good thread, I was looking at the same stuff this morning and our situation has definitely improved. I honestly think there is a path to the tournament even if we lose in the Big Ten semi's. Just depends on how other things shake out
Agree completely but we have to get a W tomorrow night, so big. There are about 3-4 games that stand out right now as to how the F did we lose that is killing us.
I agree with the sentiment that lets just win at Wiscy but looking at the scenarios is interesting. However, how much do our opponent help or hurt us? For example, would Ill beating MSU increase their RPI and subsequently our RPI more than them losing. Also, how much does it help Iowa if ISU were to win the Big 12 tourney and have wins against Kansas and Baylor or WV on their record which would probably move them to top 25. Or can Northern Iowa help us by winning their tourney? Or even teams like VA or ND making a run through ACC. Maybe this is too late in the season for those scenarios to move the needle though. I'm guessing that ISU is not hurting us the last three weeks compared to where they were. Thanks in advance to the stat geeks for all the insight.
Pretty Cool thing on CBS sports where you can compare teams. I was just comparing Iowa to some "bubble" teams and its amazing. There is not a lot of difference between the teams, but except maybe 1-2 games. Crazy to think that 1 game can move you up 10-15 spots in the RPI. How is that possible? I think the system is a little "flawed" as you say.
Top 50 wins is the main criteria and Iowa has most of the bubble teams beat. But they have to win tomorrow so no need to worry about it anymore.
Top 50 wins is the main criteria and Iowa has most of the bubble teams beat. But they have to win tomorrow so no need to worry about it anymore.
We want Illinois to lose, they will just flat out drop in the RPI and may even drop right around us potentially raising up a spot they had occupied. Anything UNI does would benefit us since we beat them and we have no direct ties to anything else in the Valley this season from RPI factor. Sadly if we didn't F around and lose the Illannoy game at home we probably are in their spot right now as being almost/to in and they would be about where we are now.
Unless they win their next 4 games(at wisky, pennst , first 2 in BTT) even with a historically weak bubble it's hard to see them getting in. But, although unlikely, it's certainly not impossible.
Lose tomorrow, though, and it's back to winning the BTT to make the Dance.
Winning at mary helped open the door a bit more for making the NIT. A loss tomorrow wouldn't necessarily end that option.
Lose tomorrow, though, and it's back to winning the BTT to make the Dance.
Winning at mary helped open the door a bit more for making the NIT. A loss tomorrow wouldn't necessarily end that option.
We need 20 wins. That means 18-13 regular season and 2 BTT wins
I would be over the moon if that scenario plays out
I would be over the moon if that scenario plays out
@minny
@Nebbie
vs ILLINI
Those 3 games were the ones that costed us. If we get 2-3 we are squarely on the bubble, possible last 4 in talk. Damn sucks having a young team, but those games were learning experiences for this group. They are getting better.
Those impacts are small individually, but they do add up. That's why you root for everything. The only caveat is that at this point, you probably root against direct competition as opposed to small bumps to universal metrics. I would root for MSU even though it would slightly hurt our RPI because it does more damage to Illinois' remote tournament chances.
We definitely want ISU, Virginia, ND, Purdue, MD to win going forward.
We definitely want ISU, Virginia, ND, Purdue, MD to win going forward.
It would do a bit more damage to our RPI but it may move Illinois below us which would be a possible net gain overall assuming more likely carnage in and around us happening as well. Yes for sure we want Purdue and MD and the others you mentioned and would love for UNI to get hot but they are a hot mess right now.
Those were several teams that I was thinking too. Since we already own wins over Purdue and MD, what does a 2nd win against them do? I'm wondering if any teams like Memphis, North Dakota or Seton Hall can give us any help. Forget, with the dang BBT and remove all doubt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BirdistheWord
HB Legend
3 Mulligans:
1. Minnesota "highway robbery" game
2. Nebraska 2OT
3. Omaha say what?
1. Minnesota "highway robbery" game
2. Nebraska 2OT
3. Omaha say what?
Bubble teams will play themselves into or out with their conference tournament performances. It's all about who can sprint to the finish.
To add a little spice here, Iowa has moved up to #60 in dance card. I believe Dance card has been the most accurate predictor of tournament inclusion.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Yeah they are about 10-15 out right now. If they win the next two, they might be up closer to the bubble line. They will have to do work in the BTT in order to get into discussion.
I keep trying to think of a gentle way to say this as well. Let's talk after we win our next two. I understand the sense of hope and wanting to get scenarios out there but its just gonna be flat out disappointing if we lose one of these next two. Don't we know better than this by now? I'm not being negative but realistic. We're taking a very young team on the road against the pissed off Badgers tonight. Let's take it one game at a time and not set ourselves up for disappointment.
Man, how nice would it be to have the Minny OR UNO game? If we get both of those we're probably in.
Iowa is close in the Dance Card index which has been accurate historically (and a few of the teams in front of them are probably going to be automatic bids).
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
If you don't want to speculate, don't. Some people enjoy it and knowing scenarios allows people to have rooting interests in games they normally wouldn't, making random games more entertaining to watch. No one is forcing you to read these threads, so why post this? Everyone speculating is agreeing that we have to beat Wisky and Penn St.
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