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Russia Signals It Will Take More Ukrainian Children, a Crime in Progress

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Russia’s abduction and deportation of Ukraine’s children since its invasion of the country was so well-documented and terrifying that when Russian forces prepared to withdraw from the southern city of Kherson last fall, doctors at a hospital there hurriedly hid babies and falsified their records.
When Russian soldiers arrived, the staff at Kherson Regional Hospital said the infants were too critically ill to move, Olha Pilyarska, the head of its neonatal anesthesiology department, recalled in an interview on Saturday.
“They put lung ventilation devices near all the children,” she said.
The efforts saved 14 babies from being swept up in a campaign that has systematically transferred thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia to be resettled in foster families and put on track to become Russian citizens. When the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Friday over the forcible deportation of children, it was a powerful recognition of actions that have not only been carried out in full public view, but continue today.

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The arrest warrant adds Mr. Putin’s name to a notorious list of despots and dictators accused of humanity’s worst atrocities. But this case is unusual in that the charges were announced not years after the abuses began, but effectively in real time. The judges at The Hague cited the need for urgent action because the deportations are “allegedly ongoing.”

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Three adults hold babies in a room with cribs and other supplies.

Although the court has issued arrest warrants quickly before — against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya, for example — war crimes investigations often take years, meaning that charges are not announced until long after atrocities occur. President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan was charged in 2009 with war crimes that began in 2003.
But the Russian authorities, far from disguising the deportations, have put the children on display in Red Square photo-ops and at lavish concerts celebrating the war. They have also signaled that more deportations are on the way.

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Across southern Ukraine, local Russian proxy leaders are issuing new “evacuation orders” before an expected Ukrainian military offensive this spring. Such orders have often been a prelude to stepped-up deportations. And about a month ago, Russian forces closed all roads leading from occupied areas into the rest of Ukraine, making it much harder for people to escape. Now, the only open roads head deeper into occupied territory or into Russia.

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“Russians are deporting more and more people from the temporarily occupied districts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson,” the Ukrainian National Resistance Center, the government agency that monitors events in occupied Ukraine, said on Friday, noting public statements by the local Russian authorities.


Smoke rising from a gray road is visible from the inside of a car.

More than a year into a war that has turned into a bloody endurance contest, Ukrainian and allied leaders are contending with wavering — though still strong — support for continuing to supply Ukraine with military equipment. Ukrainian officials said the arrest warrant highlighted the moral imperative of the conflict.
“World leaders will think twice before shaking his hand or sitting with Putin at the negotiating table,” Andriy Kostin, Ukraine’s chief prosecutor, said of the arrest warrant. “It’s another clear signal to the world that the Russian regime is criminal.”



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The court in The Hague also issued an arrest warrant for Maria Lvova-Belova, the Kremlin’s commissioner for children’s rights, who is the public face of the deportation program. She has spoken proudly about organizing a large-scale system for shuttling children out of Ukraine. After the arrest warrant, she vowed “to continue to work.”
Mr. Putin, in a televised meeting with Ms. Lvova-Belova last month, noted the work approvingly. “The number of applications from our citizens regarding the adoption of children from the Donetsk and Luhansk republics, from the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions is also growing,” he said.
The scale of the deportations in Ukraine over the past year is something not witnessed in Europe in generations.
 
By Max Boot
Columnist|
March 14, 2023 at 7:30 a.m. EDT




Russia is in a demographic death spiral. In the long term, that’s bad news for Russia. But in the short term, it’s bad news for Russia’s neighbors, because Vladimir Putin may be seeking military solutions to demographic problems.
Deaths have outpaced births almost every year since the end of communism. Russia’s population peaked in 1993 at 148.6 million. At the start of 2022, it was estimated at 145.6 million. That’s a decline of only 2 percent, but, by way of comparison, the U.S. population grew 33 percent from 1990 to 2020. The World Bank calculates that Russian life expectancy at birth is only 71 years compared with 77 in the United States. The disparity is even more dramatic among men: In the United States it’s 75 and in Russia, 66. That’s lower than in North Korea, Syria or Bangladesh. Russia has the world’s 11th-largest economy but ranks 96th in life expectancy.
Nicholas Eberstadt, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, explained this deadly discrepancy in a fascinating report last year. The main problem is that Russia’s birthrate is only 1.5 children per woman — well below replacement level (two children per woman).
That rate isn’t especially low compared with other industrialized countries. But Russia stands out for its extraordinarily high death rate, particularly among men, from cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks, strokes, etc.) and injuries (homicides, suicides, accidents). Given the country’s income and education levels, Russian deaths from both causes are several times higher than expected. This can be explained by Russia’s terrible health-care system, its environmental pollution, and its high levels of binge drinking and drug addiction — which, in turn, are a signs of despair.

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Russia’s already high death rate has recently spiked. During the covid-19 pandemic, 2020-2023, Russia had 1.2 million to 1.6 million excess deaths, according to the Economist. If this is accurate, it means Russia had more covid deaths than the United States, whose population is more than twice as large.
Then, in the past year, Russia has suffered 60,000 to 70,000 combat fatalities in Ukraine — more than in all its other wars since 1945 combined, with no end in sight. “The average rate of Russian soldiers killed per month is at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan,” reports the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And since the start of the war, 500,000 to 1 million Russians — mostly young and educated — have fled the country. In Moscow, there is a visible shortage of men.
Russia’s population loss is expected to continue — down to 135 million people by 2050 and 126 million by 2100. Currently the world’s ninth-most populous country, it is projected to fall to number 22 by century’s end. Demographics is, to some extent, destiny. Russia’s days as a great power are numbered.
Putin is acutely conscious of the problem and talks about it all the time. In September 2021, he lamented that Russia now would have a population of 500 million were it not for the loss of the Russian empire after the 1917 revolution and the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, which he has called “the largest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”
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He has tried in vain all the normal ways to reverse the trend, from offering financial incentives for citizens to have more children to trying to lure immigrants from Central Asia. His invasion of Ukraine can be seen as a desperate gambit to increase the Russian population at gunpoint.
Russia occupies Ukrainian territories once inhabited by 8 million people — many of whom have died, fled or been deported to Russia. That the Russians have kidnapped at least 11,000 Ukrainian children looks especially sinister in light of Russia’s baby deficit.
Stephen Sestanovich, a former U.S. ambassador at large to the Soviet republics who is now a colleague of mine at the Council on Foreign Relations, told me that Putin is motivated by a “fever dream of decline.” The depopulation of Russia, he said, “feeds Putin’s apocalyptic sense of his own grand responsibilities. If you’re worried about a shrinking population, maybe conquering the 40 million people next door will solve your problem?”
Of course, in trying to address Russia’s manpower deficit, Putin only exacerbates it. But, alas, there is no evidence that Russia is running out of cannon fodder to send to Ukraine. An estimated 7.2 million Russian men are between the ages of 18 and 26. Putin was able to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers last year with little difficulty, and another draft may be in the offing. He may have more trouble keeping his vow to expand the army from 1.1 million soldiers to 1.5 million by 2026, but he doesn’t need an extra 400,000 troops to continue inflicting great suffering on the people of Ukraine.
In the short term, the loss of so many emigrants may actually help Putin by solidifying his control. “The problematic people are gone, and those who remain are the ones the regime needs to sustain itself and the war,” said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
So there’s little hope that Russia’s demographic woes will curtail the threat it poses anytime soon. If anything, Putin’s awareness of the “demographic doom loop” makes him more desperate and more dangerous.

 
This may not end up being a war we can avoid direct intervention in folks. We have a moral obligation to oppose Putin's quest despite what the sedition caucus would lead us to believe. Hopefully, Putin will catch the dead soon and the sane Russians in charge will take control. This idiotic invasion should cost Russia the billions that it will take to rebuild Ukraine, and there is a price that they will never have to pay for all of the loss of life that continues against its citizens.
 
Imagine thinking your kid or husband is going to send you back a washer and dryer as war trophies but instead some Ukrainian kid is on your doorstep
 
I don't understand the need to steal children. Are Russian women infertile? Are the men there shooting blanks and they need to steal other people's babies? Are they hoping stealing babies gives a rapid population replacement to the hundreds of thousands of lives they've wasted with their idiotic invasion strategy?
I think in their effort to make all new conquered territories “Russian” they see their only two options are genocide to kill all non-Russians (frowned upon), or to kidnap and indoctrinate young non-Russians to become “Russian”. If they don’t buy in after a few years they can send to a labor camp.

Incomprehensible to the civilized world.
 
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