Selection Monday for Iowa Women. #5 Seed in UConn's Bracket in NCAA Tournament

[nu2u]

Clark has also been clutch, though. See the 4th quarter against Iowa State. Or the deep three she hit at Nebraska when they were coming back and all the momentum was against Iowa. Or how she hit 4 or 5 baskets on the closing possessions of the half in the final few weeks of the season.

I don't mind when people think one might be slightly better than the other. But I see a lot of UConn fans assert Bueckers is clearly better. And a lot of Iowa fans say Clark is clearly better. I just don't think that's true.

As for national awards, Bueckers is a great player, had a great season, and plays for arguably the best team in the country. Clark is a great player, had a great season, but plays for a borderline Top 25 team. For a lot of the national media, that's where the award inquiry ends.

I disagree with that approach because if you put Bueckers on Iowa the team probably wouldn't be any better than it is with Clark. Players shouldn't get punished for not going to the very best teams, but they often do.

I agree with a lot of what you posted but c'mon man Bueckers was clearly more clutch in more important games against higher ranked teams. Its OK to admit that. UCONN trailed top ranked South Carolina late in the 4th Quarter..... she hit two very big baskets in the final minute to send the game into overtime, then she score all 9 UCONN points in OT to secure a 4 point win . That is probably the single greatest performance by a player all year. maybe several years. I'm sorry, Clark hitting a deep 3 to halt a Nebraska run does not compare.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

I agree with a lot of what you posted but c'mon man Bueckers was clearly more clutch in more important games against higher ranked teams. Its OK to admit that. UCONN trailed top ranked South Carolina late in the 4th Quarter..... she hit two very big baskets in the final minute to send the game into overtime, then she score all 9 UCONN points in OT to secure a 4 point win . That is probably the single greatest performance by a player all year. maybe several years. I'm sorry, Clark hitting a deep 3 to halt a Nebraska run does not compare.

I'm not trying to say any of Clark's performances match that performance by Bueckers (though her 4th quarter to rally Iowa back from down 17 against Iowa State was excellent even if Iowa State isn't a Top 20 team). I'm saying that giving some credit for being "clutch" in a comparison is largely based on anecdotal instead of quantifiable evidence. Bueckers performance late against South Carolina is "better" than anything Clark has done because Clark has never had the opportunity to perform against a top rated team late in a close game.

As an example: Kobe Bryant is widely considered to be one of, if not the best, clutch shooters of all time. But an article from back in 2012 found that between 2000-2012 when Kobe was shooting to tie or take the lead late in games, Kobe shot just 31.25%, well below his career 44.7% shooting percentage. Yet Kobe's legacy as a clutch shooter lives on. Because people remember the ones he made and largely forget the ones he missed.

To the extent that we evaluate whether Clark or Bueckers is clutch, I would say that they both are. Both have hit big shots all throughout the season and have performed well late in games when their teams needed them.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

#5 seed it is, in UConn's bracket

Just like last time men's team made the Sweet 16....

 

[SotaHawk87]

UConn having some Covid issues!?

 

[cruhawk]

Better shooter, less turnovers, better ball handler, remarkably clutch performer. I don't think the gap between the two players is too great that Clark can't make up the difference though.

Wow.
Are we sure she's even a girl?

 

[cruhawk]

The amount of negative energy exerted by UConn and some other other 'blueblood' NCAAW fans is surprising. Any positive article or comment by someone like Sue Bird about Clark is attacked by the Huskie faithful. I don't understand, is UConn not getting the attention they deserve? Are they not annually a national championship contenders? Is Bueckers not the most popular name in the sport?

Poor little ole Iowa can't catch a break. UConn fans cannot stand that another great player rivals their own star freshman. They argue that Clark shouldn't be talked about or isn't good (actual people make this argument!) because the Iowa team 'isn't good'. Of course Iowa isn't as good as UConn. Iowa doesn't get multiple 5 star players every class. We have 1 and that's too much. For whatever reason insecurity is prevalent among many of them.

The women's game is typically a contrastingly positive sport to the toxic energy that often reverberates around college football or men's basketball. I hope Iowa can beat CMU and Kentucky and that Clark can showcase her skills against UConn. Little chance at winning but just achieving the Sweet 16 this year would be spectacular considering the youth of this roster.

Most Iowa fans--heck, most people--don't give a rat's butt what UCONN fans think.
And FWIW, Clark is Iowa home-grown whereas Uconn had to come to the Midwest to get Beuckers from Minnesota. So their reason to brag is a little shaky...

 

[Franisdaman]

 

[Franisdaman]

Look at these offensive stats

 

[nu2u]

Wow.
Are we sure she's even a girl?

What a stupid ass thing to say.

 

[AMAYS]

Alright let's do this: Clark vs. Bueckers

2 point shooting- Bueckers shoots 3.6% better from two, but Clark shoots nearly 3 times the number of free throws (which mostly come from 2 point shots). I'd rather have more free throws than a slightly higher shooting percentage. Advantage Clark.

3 point shooting- Bueckers shoots just under 7% better, but averages half the number of attempts per game the Clark does. It's harder to shoot a higher percentage at volume, and Clark has to shoot more out of necessity. I also think Clark has to take the harder three point shots, which impacts her percentage. I still give this to Bueckers, though. Advantage Bueckers.

Free Throws- Clark shoots 2.4% better and averages with a significantly higher volume. Advantage Clark, but it's not huge.

Assists- Clark averages 1 more assist per game than Bueckers despite playing more difficult competition and having less high rated players around her. Advantage Clark.

Rebounds- Clark averages 1.4 more rebounds per game than Bueckers. Her numbers would probably be lower if Czinano was a better rebounder, but she also works hard to grab boards. Advantage Clark.

Steals/Blocks- They average the same amount of blocks and Bueckers averages 1.1 more steals per game the Clark. Advantage Bueckers.

Non-Stat Defense- Bueckers has a reputation as a good defender. Clark is far from Iowa's worst defender, but I wouldn't call her good. Advantage Bueckers.

Turnovers- Clark averages 2.3 more per game than Bueckers. That said, Coach Bluder's system favors high risk passes, keeps the ball in Clark's hands a lot, and also asks her to make something happen every time the Hawks haven't scored and the shot clock is at 10 seconds or less. Some (but not all) of the turnover difference here is down to where Clark plays and what she's asked to do. Advantage Bueckers.

Conclusion- Clark and Bueckers are both phenomenal and I don't think you can clearly say one is better than the other. They do have different strengths and weaknesses, though, so you could favor one playing style over the other.

Appreciate your breakdown. Clark is a phenom. It's perhaps too bad that she is the same age as Bueckers, who is already WBB royalty as a recent winner of USA Basketball's Female Athlete Of the Year (joining Diana Taurasi, Breanna Stewart and Maya Moore, among recent winners).

Advanced stats that aggregate the various offensive and defensive categories in your breakdown, and then combine them into a value rating, help explain why most non-Hawkeye fans prefer Bueckers to Clark:

	Win Shares	Off Rtg	Def Rtg
Bueckers	11.0	126.3	71.8
Clark	7.8	115.8	105.5

Also, Clark's stratospheric turnover numbers are not just Bluder ball or her teammates. In 2015, Samantha Logic averaged 8.1 assists against 3.85 turnovers, which was 3rd in the nation in assists, but still 35th in assist-turnover ratio (Clark is 159th). Of course, Logic was a senior, and Clark is a freshman, and Clark's ball security issues will likely improve. But as a freshman, ball security is a big problem. Finally, Caitlin's current ball-security issues, as a point guard, are illustrated by the wide gap between Clark and Bueckers in terms of national ranking for assist to turnover ratio. While Clark is 2nd in the nation in assists at 7.2 per game, and Bueckers is 9th at 6.1, Clark's 131 turnovers (4.85 per game) bring her to 159th in the nation in assist to turnover ratio (Bueckers is 31st). If that gap can close and Caitlin can improve her defense (and Iowa can become a top 15 team), the Buckers-Clark comparisons will get even more interesting.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

Appreciate your breakdown. Clark is a phenom. It's perhaps too bad that she is the same age as Bueckers, who is already WBB royalty as a recent winner of USA Basketball's Female Athlete Of the Year (joining Diana Taurasi, Breanna Stewart and Maya Moore, among recent winners).

Advanced stats that aggregate the various offensive and defensive categories in your breakdown, and then combine them into a value rating, help explain why most non-Hawkeye fans prefer Bueckers to Clark:

	Win Shares	Off Rtg	Def Rtg
Bueckers	11.0	126.3	71.8
Clark	7.8	115.8	105.5

Also, Clark's stratospheric turnover numbers are not just Bluder ball or her teammates. In 2015, Samantha Logic averaged 8.1 assists against 3.85 turnovers, which was 3rd in the nation in assists, but still 35th in assist-turnover ratio (Clark is 159th). Of course, Logic was a senior, and Clark is a freshman, and Clark's ball security issues will likely improve. But as a freshman, ball security is a big problem. Finally, Caitlin's current ball-security issues, as a point guard, are illustrated by the wide gap between Clark and Bueckers in terms of national ranking for assist to turnover ratio. While Clark is 2nd in the nation in assists at 7.2 per game, and Bueckers is 9th at 6.1, Clark's 131 turnovers (4.85 per game) bring her to 159th in the nation in assist to turnover ratio (Bueckers is 31st). If that gap can close and Caitlin can improve her defense (and Iowa can become a top 15 team), the Buckers-Clark comparisons will get even more interesting.

I agree that all of Clark's turnover numbers aren't just on Coach Bluder's system. My argument is that Clark's turnover numbers will always be higher than Bueckers' are. I think Doyle averaged right around 3.8 turnovers per game as a senior, too. Around 3.8 turnovers per game is probably about as good as we can hope to expect from Clark in Iowa's system. Bueckers was at something like 2.6 per game this year. I think if Bueckers played at Iowa, her numbers would be a lot closer to 3.8 per game, though probably not at the 5ish mark Clark's are at.

As for win shares, I don't love it as a metric in college basketball. The defensive win shares statistic is fairly heavily tied to how the team performs defensively. For example, if you put Clark on UConn this year and put Bueckers on Iowa, neither team would be significantly different defensively (because 4 other defenders and systems are the same), but Clark's defensive win shares would go way up and Bueckers defensive win shares would go way down. That's not as true for offense, because we have so many stats to measure offensive production. I don't think a stat like defensive win shares is great for individual comparisons where it is so reliant on team performance.

The lack of defensive statistics is why I started to track Points Against in my recaps. So far Clark is giving up fewer points than Marshall and Martin per game. That's not to say Clark is a good defender. She clearly can improve, and Bueckers is ahead of her defensively. Just that Iowa's defensive issues aren't primarily on Clark.

 

[r448chlpo]

In fairness to Marshall, she seems to get the assignment for the other teams top scoring perimeter player when the team is playing person to person or a triangle and two... box and one etc. Tells me she is a relatively strong defender, at least relative to others.

 

[brfhilltop]

I thought Clark's defense had really been better as of late, along with Monika's.

 

[AMAYS]

I agree that all of Clark's turnover numbers aren't just on Coach Bluder's system. My argument is that Clark's turnover numbers will always be higher than Bueckers' are. I think Doyle averaged right around 3.8 turnovers per game as a senior, too. Around 3.8 turnovers per game is probably about as good as we can hope to expect from Clark in Iowa's system. Bueckers was at something like 2.6 per game this year. I think if Bueckers played at Iowa, her numbers would be a lot closer to 3.8 per game, though probably not at the 5ish mark Clark's are at.

As for win shares, I don't love it as a metric in college basketball. The defensive win shares statistic is fairly heavily tied to how the team performs defensively. For example, if you put Clark on UConn this year and put Bueckers on Iowa, neither team would be significantly different defensively (because 4 other defenders and systems are the same), but Clark's defensive win shares would go way up and Bueckers defensive win shares would go way down. That's not as true for offense, because we have so many stats to measure offensive production. I don't think a stat like defensive win shares is great for individual comparisons where it is so reliant on team performance.

The lack of defensive statistics is why I started to track Points Against in my recaps. So far Clark is giving up fewer points than Marshall and Martin per game. That's not to say Clark is a good defender. She clearly can improve, and Bueckers is ahead of her defensively. Just that Iowa's defensive issues aren't primarily on Clark.

Spot on about limitations of advanced defensive stats for individuals.

 

[BraydonRoberts5]

In fairness to Marshall, she seems to get the assignment for the other teams top scoring perimeter player when the team is playing person to person or a triangle and two... box and one etc. Tells me she is a relatively strong defender, at least relative to others.

I think part of that is Coach Bluder gives Clark a lesser defensive assignment so that she can play most of the game without a break, so she can do more on the offensive end, and so she can contribute to rebounding. If Clark isn't getting the toughest defensive perimeter assignment, then either Marshall or Martin has to.

I did notice towards the end of the Rutgers game when Iowa went triangle and two and Rutgers was making a run, that Coach Bluder put Clark on Guirantes. Part of that is that Guirantes is fairly tall, but I also think that in crunch time Clark can be the team's best perimeter defender. She just doesn't give the crunch time defensive effort across a whole game yet. Hopefully that will come more in the next year or two.

 

[cruhawk]

What a stupid ass thing to say.

The imprimatur here, Francis, was that she seemed super human the she was being described. It was not an attack on her femininity. Lighten up.

 

[Franisdaman]

check this out & watch:

 

[Franisdaman]

check this out & watch: