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sketchy weather in Iowa on Friday 💨 ⛈️

Starting to hear the term "bomb cyclone" getting used to describe this system's potential. Also, comparisons to the 3/31/2023 high risk event we had here in eastern Iowa.

Friday could get REALLY interesting...
 
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I'm focusing more on the shift in high temps Fri-Sun to the tune of 35 degrees.
 
Multiple inches of rain in the LA area starting tonight, with heavy snow at higher elevations. Not ideal coming after the wildfires. Then it trucks its way along I-40 and hooks north to clobber the QC on Friday.
 
Bomb ass low. Looks like a big QLCS. (big line with embedded supercells and perhaps torandoes)

Think straight line wind will be biggest threat, and it won't be trivial. Forward speed of the storms themselves could top 65mph

Not quite sure where it'll setup between missouri and mississippi river valleys. SPC currently favoring a more easterly position, but wouldn't be surprised if that changes.
 
Bomb ass low. Looks like a big QLCS. (big line with embedded supercells and perhaps torandoes)

Think straight line wind will be biggest threat, and it won't be trivial. Forward speed of the storms themselves could top 65mph

Not quite sure where it'll setup between missouri and mississippi river valleys. SPC currently favoring a more easterly position, but wouldn't be surprised if that changes.
I used to think straight line winds were no big deal. Until 2020.
 
Bad night to be in Donner Pass. 2 feet of snow tonight, and over a foot tomorrow.
How long would it take HBOT to be stranded before cannibalism sets in?
 
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Flying to Dallas and then Cancun from CR and received an email today from AA that delays are possible in Dallas due to 40mph
 
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Quad Cities NWS:

All indications are that a strong synoptically forced severe
thunderstorm outbreak will occur across the area Friday
afternoon into the the evening hours. Strong frontal convergence
and impressive frontogenetical forcing will overspread the area
from mainly 21 UTC Friday to 03 UTC Saturday. There is a 3 to 6
hour timing difference between the models with the GFS the
fastest with it moving into the CWA by 21 UTC and NAM delaying
it until 00 UTC Saturday. This coincides with the peak in CAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear of 60 to 70 knots. Winds
are largely unidirectional on forecast soundings with winds at
the top of the mix layer late Friday afternoon into the evening
of 55 to 60 knots. Storms that develop may be scattered at first
but will quickly grow upscale into a squall line and accelerate
northeastward across the area bringing the potential for
widespread damaging winds. Model hodographs are large and
cyclonically curved indicating the potential for spin up
tornadoes but the limiting factor for these will be limited
moisture and higher LCL heights. Think that the risk for hail
will be lower given a potentially lower residence time in upper
portions of the sounding. These storms will also be moving very
fast, greater than 50 MPH ,and needing a a quick reaction time
if warnings are issued. The severe threat will end as the cold
front surges eastward across the area.
 
Quad Cities NWS:

All indications are that a strong synoptically forced severe thunderstorm outbreak will occur over Lucas80 home and surrounding area Friday
afternoon into the the evening hours. Strong frontal convergence
and impressive frontogenetical forcing will overspread the area
from mainly 21 UTC Friday to 03 UTC Saturday. There is a 3 to 6
hour timing difference between the models with the GFS the
fastest with it moving into the CWA by 21 UTC and NAM delaying
it until 00 UTC Saturday. This coincides with the peak in CAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear of 60 to 70 knots. Winds
are largely unidirectional on forecast soundings with winds at
the top of the mix layer late Friday afternoon into the evening
of 55 to 60 knots. Storms that develop may be scattered at first
but will quickly grow upscale into a squall line and accelerate
northeastward across the area bringing the potential for
widespread damaging winds. Model hodographs are large and
cyclonically curved indicating the potential for spin up
tornadoes but the limiting factor for these will be limited
moisture and higher LCL heights. Think that the risk for hail
will be lower given a potentially lower residence time in upper
portions of the sounding. These storms will also be moving very
fast, greater than 50 MPH ,and needing a a quick reaction time
if warnings are issued. The severe threat will end as the cold
front surges eastward across the area.
FIFY…….

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Quad Cities NWS:

All indications are that a strong synoptically forced severe
thunderstorm outbreak will occur across the area Friday
afternoon into the the evening hours. Strong frontal convergence
and impressive frontogenetical forcing will overspread the area
from mainly 21 UTC Friday to 03 UTC Saturday. There is a 3 to 6
hour timing difference between the models with the GFS the
fastest with it moving into the CWA by 21 UTC and NAM delaying
it until 00 UTC Saturday. This coincides with the peak in CAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear of 60 to 70 knots. Winds
are largely unidirectional on forecast soundings with winds at
the top of the mix layer late Friday afternoon into the evening
of 55 to 60 knots. Storms that develop may be scattered at first
but will quickly grow upscale into a squall line and accelerate
northeastward across the area bringing the potential for
widespread damaging winds. Model hodographs are large and
cyclonically curved indicating the potential for spin up
tornadoes but the limiting factor for these will be limited
moisture and higher LCL heights. Think that the risk for hail
will be lower given a potentially lower residence time in upper
portions of the sounding. These storms will also be moving very
fast, greater than 50 MPH ,and needing a a quick reaction time
if warnings are issued. The severe threat will end as the cold
front surges eastward across the area.
I understood maybe 10% of this.
 

Yeah, really a matter of when more than anything else. For eastern Iowa, somewhere between say 4 to 8 for when the main event rolls through.

That line will move fast, and could have some hail or a tornado or two...but gusty winds are probably the biggest worry.

They'll roll in, rough us up, then fly out fast...
 
Quad Cities NWS:

All indications are that a strong synoptically forced severe
thunderstorm outbreak will occur across the area Friday
afternoon into the the evening hours. Strong frontal convergence
and impressive frontogenetical forcing will overspread the area
from mainly 21 UTC Friday to 03 UTC Saturday. There is a 3 to 6
hour timing difference between the models with the GFS the
fastest with it moving into the CWA by 21 UTC and NAM delaying
it until 00 UTC Saturday. This coincides with the peak in CAPE
of 500 to 1000 J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear of 60 to 70 knots. Winds
are largely unidirectional on forecast soundings with winds at
the top of the mix layer late Friday afternoon into the evening
of 55 to 60 knots. Storms that develop may be scattered at first
but will quickly grow upscale into a squall line and accelerate
northeastward across the area bringing the potential for
widespread damaging winds. Model hodographs are large and
cyclonically curved indicating the potential for spin up
tornadoes but the limiting factor for these will be limited
moisture and higher LCL heights. Think that the risk for hail
will be lower given a potentially lower residence time in upper
portions of the sounding. These storms will also be moving very
fast, greater than 50 MPH ,and needing a a quick reaction time
if warnings are issued. The severe threat will end as the cold
front surges eastward across the area.
 
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