That's definitely all very true, but at the same time, as i'm sure you know, a teams expected number of wins and the probability they win the national title are also not independent of each other either, that's more what I was getting at. I understand and agree with why the Buckeyes would have a lower expected value for their number of wins compared to other teams with similar odds of winning the natty, their tough schedule clearly gives them a higher standard deviation, I just think the Nugget's model might be overemphasizing this a little bit, especially considering the over was only a shocking -115 !!!! They have only lost four games in four years after all, so I think an 8.5-3.5 W/L projection for this year might be overemphasizing that schedule & higher SD just a bit, and personally think a 9 O/U and would have been more on target.
Here's the Nuggets other O/U, and the Vegas Superbooks title odds again for comparison:
TENNESSEE 10 Appalachian State, Virginia Tech, Ohio, Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M, Alabama, at South Carolina, Tennessee Tech, Kentucky, Missouri, at Vanderbilt
CLEMSON 10 at Auburn, Troy, South Carolina State, at Georgia Tech, Louisville, at Boston College, N.C. State, at Florida State, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, at Wake Forest, South Carolina
FLORIDA STATE 10 Mississippi*, Charleston Southern, at Louisvilla, South Florida, North Carolina, at Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Clemson, at N.C. State, Boston College, at Syracuse, Florida
OKLAHOMA 10 Houston*, Louisiana–Monroe, Ohio State, at Texas Christian, Texas, Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Iowa State, Baylor, at West Virginia, Oklahoma State
ALABAMA 9.5 Southern California*, Western Kentucky, at Missisippi, Kent State, Kentucky, at Arkansas, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, at Louisiana State, Mississippi State, Chattanooga, Auburn
LOUISIANA STATE 9.5 Wisconsin*, Jacksonville State, Mississippi State, at Auburn, Missouri, at Florida, Southern Mississippi, Misssippi, Alabama, at Arkansas, South Alabama, at Texas A&M
MICHIGAN 9.5 Hawaii, Central Florida, Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin, at Rutgers, Illinois, at Michigan State, Maryland, at Iowa, Indiana, at Ohio State
NOTRE DAME 9 at Texas, Nevada, Michigan State, Duke, at Syracuse, at N.C. State, Stanford, Miami (FL), Navy, Army, Virginia Tech, at Southern California
BAYLOR 9 Northwestern, Southern Methodist, at Rice, Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at Texas, Texas Christian, at Oklahoma, Kansas State, at Texas Tech, at West Virginia
HOUSTON 9 Oklahoma*, Lamar, at Cincinnati, at Texas State, Connecticut, at Navy, Tulsa, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Tulane, Louisville, at Memphis
LOUISVILLE 9 Charlotte, at Syracuse, Florida State, at Marshall, at Clemson, Duke, N.C. State, at Virginia, at Boston College, Wake Forest, at Houston, Kentucky
UCLA 9 at Texas A&M, UNLV, Brigham Young, Stanford, Arizona, at Arizona State, at Washington State, Utah, at Colorado, Oregon State, Southern California, at California
GEORGIA 8.5 North Carolina, Nicholls State, at Missouri, at Mississippi, Tennessee, at South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida, at Kentucky, Auburn, Louisiana–Monroe, Georgia Tech
OKLAHOMA STATE 8.5 Southeastern Louisiana, Central Michigan, Pittsburgh, at Baylor, Texas, Iowa State, at Kanasas, West Virginia, at Kansas State, Texas Tech, at Texas Christian, at Oklahoma
OREGON 8.5 California–Davis, Virginia, at Nebraska, Colorado, at Washington State, Washington, at California, Arizona, Southern California, Stanford, at Utah, at Oregon State
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 8.5 South Dakota State, Arkansas, Iowa State, at Southern Methodist, Oklahoma, at Kansas, Texas Tech, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, at Texas, Kansas State
OHIO STATE 8.5
SCHOOL ODDS
- Alabama, 6-1
- Michigan, 7-1
- Clemson, 8-1
- Oklahoma, 8-1
- Ohio State, 8-1
- Florida State, 12-1
- Baylor, 15-1
- LSU, 15-1
- Notre Dame, 15-1
- Tennessee, 15-1
- Auburn, 30-1
- Georgia, 30-1
- Michigan State, 30-1
- Ole Miss, 30-1
- UCLA, 30-1
- Stanford, 30-1
