Starting the February Fade a little early this year, eh?

[HawkLogic]

Every year, there’s so much talk of the “Fran Fade”, but results do not bear that out. Going back 10 seasons, Iowa has had a losing record in January 5 times and a losing record in February 4 times. Some of those were during bad basketball seasons. The one absolute fade was the 2015-2016 team. They went 3-4 in February after a 7-1 January with a team that finished 22-11. the 2013-2014 team went 3-4 in February with late losses in a 20-13 season, but that was a 9-9 Big Ten team.

Here’s a decade of January/February Iowa hoops:

Year	Overall Record	B1G Record	January	February
2019-2020	20-11	11-9	5-3	5-3
2018-2019	23-12	10-10	5-3	5-2
2017-2018	14-19	4-14	3-6	2-6
2016-2017	19-15	10-8	5-4	3-3
2015-2016	22-11	12-6	7-1	3-4
2014-2015	22-12	9-9	3-4	6-2
2013-2014	20-13	9-9	4-3	3-4
2012-2013	25-13	9-9	3-4	4-3
2011-2012	18-17	8-10	2-5	5-3
2010-2011	11-20	4-14	1-7	2-5

So, in 10 years, they’ve had a couple fades and a couple years where February was better than the rest of their season (18-19, 14-15). The rest of the years, the performance in Jan/Feb largely lined up with who they were. I just can’t stress 2017-2018 as a “Fran Fade“ when they went 2-6 in a February in a season where they were 14-19/4-14. That’s not a fade, it’s just not a good team.

Your stats show a roughly 0.500 Big10 coach that has previously only one team contending for a B1G title (2015-2016). Fran started with LIckliter players and some point out that hurts is overall record, but that 1st team happened to include future All B1G Gatens and future All Big10 Devyn Marble. Fully of his own doing (poor recruiting) Fran was able to replicate that same 4/14 record in 2017/18 without having lickliter to blame.

Fran's previous best team, contended Big10 title for 1st half of the B1G did experience a fade. The BTT data has not been shown but I do recall hearing that Iowa under Fran is the only Big10 team not to make it to a Saturday game over Fran's 10 years (excluding last year, no tournament), so Fran's BTT performance also plays into the Fade narrative.

Perhaps Garza and recent recruiting success has changed the Fran led program and it can be solidly above 0.500 in B1G going forward. I don't think this team will fade, but the schedule does get tougher so they may
play similar level and have worse record for 2nd half.

 

[HawkRugged17]

Guess what. We'll lose again. Other teams will lose too.

 

[BBHawk]

Once again the team has reached its ceiling and will come crashing back down to reality.

So tired of Fran.

JFC, don't you have a life to worry about?

 

[cruhawk]

You and Qchawks need to get together and drown your misery together.

Emphasis on "drown"...

 

[cruhawk]

Players are humans ... not robots. A team handling high expectations from the coaches, fans, and (more importantly) themselves will determine how this season goes. Here's hoping to the players and coaches continuing to work hard ... and for the health of the team (CJF - get better).

Not only that, but college players are very young humans, more subject to the fluctuations of attitude than more mature people. Give 'em a break.

 

[Hawksfor3]

What is Fran supposed to do, put on a uniform himself?

He might, lol. Hey @Franisdaman do you have that GIF with Fran taking off the warmups?

 

[Franisdaman]

He might, lol. Hey @Franisdaman do you have that GIF with Fran taking off the warmups?

 

[iavagabond]

Really wish there weren’t eight days before they hit the court again after that bad, bad loss.

 

[BrewHawk]

Time to go after DeVries.