STOCKS SOAR ON INFLATION COOL (Drudge's words, not mine)

[NoleATL]

Stocks rallied Tuesday, building on their strong November gains, as Wall Street cheered new U.S. inflation data that raised hope of the Federal Reserve wrapping up its rate-hiking campaign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 512 points, or 1.5%, marking its second 500-point gain this month. The S&P 500 rallied 1.9%, briefly trading above the key 4,500 level. The Nasdaq Composite also traded 2.3% higher.

Tuesday’s gains added to an already stellar performance this month for stocks. The S&P 500 and Dow are up 7.3% and 5.4%, respectively, in November. The Nasdaq is up 9.4%, on pace for its biggest one-month gain since January.

S&P 500 notches best day since April, Dow leaps nearly 500 points on soft inflation report: Live updates

Stocks surged Tuesday as investors cheered the latest U.S. consumer price index report.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Tenacious E]

Stocks rallied Tuesday, building on their strong November gains, as Wall Street cheered new U.S. inflation data that raised hope of the Federal Reserve wrapping up its rate-hiking campaign.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 512 points, or 1.5%, marking its second 500-point gain this month. The S&P 500 rallied 1.9%, briefly trading above the key 4,500 level. The Nasdaq Composite also traded 2.3% higher.

Tuesday’s gains added to an already stellar performance this month for stocks. The S&P 500 and Dow are up 7.3% and 5.4%, respectively, in November. The Nasdaq is up 9.4%, on pace for its biggest one-month gain since January.

S&P 500 notches best day since April, Dow leaps nearly 500 points on soft inflation report: Live updates

Stocks surged Tuesday as investors cheered the latest U.S. consumer price index report.

www.cnbc.com

The stock market has absorbed some haymakers over the past few years from the pandemic, to supply chain issues, to inflation, to war, to natural disasters. 2022 was a massive kick to the financial balls. But, my Vanguard IRA has an 8.44% return so far this year. Would love to get back to double digit returns going forward!

 

[Finance85]

The stock market has absorbed some haymakers over the past few years from the pandemic, to supply chain issues, to inflation, to war, to natural disasters. 2022 was a massive kick to the financial balls. But, my Vanguard IRA is has an 8.44% return so far this year. Would love to get back to double digit returns going forward!

Yup. Still making up for 2nd half of 2021, and 2022, but headed in the right direction.

 

[hawkeyez]

Looking at buying some Enphase Solar (NASDAQ: ENPH). I've been watching it for a while now. It's up 13% today, but still down ~75% from it's all time high 11 months ago.

@SolarHawk and @bunsen82 any thoughts on this one?

 

[Bonerfarts]

 

[luvmyhawks]

The stock market has absorbed some haymakers over the past few years from the pandemic, to supply chain issues, to inflation, to war, to natural disasters. 2022 was a massive kick to the financial balls. But, my Vanguard IRA has an 8.44% return so far this year. Would love to get back to double digit returns going forward!

The stock market has been incredibly resilient as has the US economy. It is quite impressive.

Good report and happy market today. I love it. But that core inflation is remaining stubborn at 4%.

 

[bunsen82]

Looking at buying some Enphase Solar (NASDAQ: ENPH). I've been watching it for a while now. It's up 13% today, but still down ~75% from it's all time high 11 months ago.

@SolarHawk and @bunsen82 any thoughts on this one?

I don't know ENPH well but more just my feel for the market. I could see a continued melt up and Santa Claus rally, but once you remove the seasonality benefits for the stock market I really don't like the set up for next year. Small caps will continue to rally as there is a belief interest rates will decline and inflation is under control and ultimately the Fed will start cutting rates. I think other than the housing portion of inflation declining (which I admit is a big portion) the rest will be very sticky. Energy is likely at its lowest point if the economy continues to plug along. At which point energy will begin to rise again back towards the $100 range. I just don't see any cuts coming for 2024 unless we have a recession, and if we have a recession then the stock market and small caps are overvalued. I really view this as the last hurrah before the recession that will start hitting the market in the first quarter. Things are starting to slow down, which people are taking as a positive, but just like inflation early on, once that slowing gains momentum, it will go faster than expected. I still expect a shallow recession but a recession none the less.

Personally I think the next decade will be relatively difficult to be an investor. Essentially a stock pickers market. I foresee a gradually increasing interest environment with the government gradually pulling back on its investments and expenses. You will have 3 things occurring, more money coming out to put in bonds or CD's, Lower PE ratio's due to rising interest rates, and more of a lackadaisical market in general. I am playing the bitcoin adoption through MSTR and will play that through the fall of 2025. After that I plan to get very very conservative. There is 1 branch NY bank that is valued at a very low P/B ratio. It gives out a very decent dividend but has a very low float. So difficult to get in or out unless you have time on your hands. I plan to purchase a large chunk over time and have it as a forever stock - its specifically the type of stock or business Buffett got into in his early days in a high interest rate environment that allowed him to immensely outperform the market. I can wait out for either the family to sell out to a larger bank, or wait for a larger fish trying to pick up shares.

 

[RileyHawk]

Yup. Still making up for 2nd half of 2021, and 2022, but headed in the right direction.

The market is up 17.5% since the 2020 election.

 

[hawkjt]

Interesting comments.
An analyst on Bloomberg opined that housing costs are time-lagged inflated and so core inflation is overstated right now. That is a big component of inflation number.

Investors are piling into the market this month.
I am heavily into cash now with major fomo nervousness.

You have given me pause,tho.
My broker is a "always be buying" guy.

 

[Huey Grey]

The market is up 17.5% since the 2020 election.

He's just trying to find something to bitch about since a Dem is in control.

 

[bunsen82]

Interesting comments.
An analyst on Bloomberg opined that housing costs are time-lagged inflated and so core inflation is overstated right now. That is a big component of inflation number.

Investors are piling into the market this month.
I am heavily into cash now with major fomo nervousness.

You have given me pause,tho.
My broker is a "always be buying" guy.

If you are not a boglehead, buying regularly into etf's which is a time tested way to make money, yes I feel in general, there is not much more to go in the market but the market can be irrational for longer than most can be solvent. I remember waiting in 2011 for the market to pull back, and it effectively never did. In 2015 I finally got back into ETFs but missed a very good return during those years. Its balancing the wall of worry, while also recognizing the structural issues the market is facing. The current market is behaving very similar to most recessions, having a last hurrah right as the market is drastically slowing into the recession. People are happy because the market is slowing and less inflation, but once things are slowing its tough to stabilize or turn it back around, which is why soft landings are so rare. Effectively a 1/10 shot.

 

[THE_DEVIL]

C'mon everybody and say it with me...

THANKS D_______ B_____ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[bunsen82]

C'mon everybody and say it with me...

THANKS D_______ B_____ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Go DB Cooper Don't think thats what you you were looking for LOL

 

[hawkeyez]

C'mon everybody and say it with me...

THANKS D_______ B_____ !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What's Dick Butkus got to do with this?!?

 

[ihawk in FWB]

Thanks Joe!

 

[Tenacious E]

The market is up 17.5% since the 2020 election.

True, but as Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” 2020 and the first half of 2021 were good to great. Since 7/1/21, the total aggregate rate of return for the Vanguard fund I referenced is -8.2% (not including how the 4th quarter of 2023 or how it ends up). The first three quarters of 2022 had an aggregate rate of return of -26.1%

 

[hawkeyeandy]

I don't know ENPH well but more just my feel for the market. I could see a continued melt up and Santa Claus rally, but once you remove the seasonality benefits for the stock market I really don't like the set up for next year. Small caps will continue to rally as there is a belief interest rates will decline and inflation is under control and ultimately the Fed will start cutting rates. I think other than the housing portion of inflation declining (which I admit is a big portion) the rest will be very sticky. Energy is likely at its lowest point if the economy continues to plug along. At which point energy will begin to rise again back towards the $100 range. I just don't see any cuts coming for 2024 unless we have a recession, and if we have a recession then the stock market and small caps are overvalued. I really view this as the last hurrah before the recession that will start hitting the market in the first quarter. Things are starting to slow down, which people are taking as a positive, but just like inflation early on, once that slowing gains momentum, it will go faster than expected. I still expect a shallow recession but a recession none the less.

Personally I think the next decade will be relatively difficult to be an investor. Essentially a stock pickers market. I foresee a gradually increasing interest environment with the government gradually pulling back on its investments and expenses. You will have 3 things occurring, more money coming out to put in bonds or CD's, Lower PE ratio's due to rising interest rates, and more of a lackadaisical market in general. I am playing the bitcoin adoption through MSTR and will play that through the fall of 2025. After that I plan to get very very conservative. There is 1 branch NY bank that is valued at a very low P/B ratio. It gives out a very decent dividend but has a very low float. So difficult to get in or out unless you have time on your hands. I plan to purchase a large chunk over time and have it as a forever stock - its specifically the type of stock or business Buffett got into in his early days in a high interest rate environment that allowed him to immensely outperform the market. I can wait out for either the family to sell out to a larger bank, or wait for a larger fish trying to pick up shares.

 

[RileyHawk]

True, but as Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” 2020 and the first half of 2021 were good to great. Since 7/1/21, the total aggregate rate of return for the Vanguard fund I referenced is -8.2% (not including how the 4th quarter of 2023 or how it ends up). The first three quarters of 2022 had an aggregate rate of return of -26.1%

Well, the market does fluctuate which is why it pays to look at it over a longer period.

 

[Tenacious E]

Well, the market does fluctuate which is why it pays to look at it over a longer period.

True. I am taking these stats at face value, but Google tells me that: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 56% during the Trump presidency, according to LPL. This represents an annualized gain of 11.8%". That in NO WAY is support for any notion that Trump should be back in office. But, just looking at the numbers of a longer period of time, the stock market performed better.

 

[bunsen82]

Eh, just need to go and look back at the history, it usually shows what will happen. Take the emotion out of the game. Now I have effectively gambled, not being diversified well, but willing to take that chance, Ive grown my retirement account by 400% and my cash account by 800%. I want to get to the point where I can get steady income coming in. I have had my blow ups though, and one of them well documented on here. You try to limit the blow ups and maximize the gains. You have to know when to remove the risk, and I am getting awfully close to that point. I don't recommend my strategy for anyone else. Its not a good investment strategy in general, however similar to Warren Buffett, I tend to do deep dives on investment thesis and feel pretty confident in my investment before going in strongly. I have 3 different investment philosophies, the long long term plays, buying beaten up sectors or stocks and trying to pick the best stock or best of breed that will do the best when the market inevitable regains sentiment and lastly I am not afraid to sell calls if I feel its a good enough return for the time period or I feel we are due for a pull back. I truly do get excited when the market or a sector I like is beat up because it means there is an opportunity for a strong turn around.

 

[fredjr82]

True. I am taking these stats at face value, but Google tells me that: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 56% during the Trump presidency, according to LPL. This represents an annualized gain of 11.8%". That in NO WAY is support for any notion that Trump should be back in office. But, just looking at the numbers of a longer period of time, the stock market performed better.

Thanks Obama!!

 

[RileyHawk]

True. I am taking these stats at face value, but Google tells me that: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 56% during the Trump presidency, according to LPL. This represents an annualized gain of 11.8%". That in NO WAY is support for any notion that Trump should be back in office. But, just looking at the numbers of a longer period of time, the stock market performed better.

Yes. He had a very good economy when he took office. The market cake nacho a lot in the back half of 2020 when it appeared he would not be re-elected.

 

[ICWestfan]

Yes. He had a very good economy when he took office. The market cake nacho a lot in the back half of 2020 when it appeared he would not be re-elected.

WTF is a market cake nacho? LOL

 

[Funky Bunch]

WTF is a market cake nacho? LOL

 

[RileyHawk]

WTF is a market cake nacho? LOL

You must not be very financially savvy of you don't know what that is. 😉

No idea how they came out of "grew".

 

[Tenacious E]

WTF is a market cake nacho? LOL

This is the first picture Google gave me:

 

[Finance85]

The market is up 17.5% since the 2020 election.

Yeah, about half the normal annual return over 3 years, on average, going back to the end of the Great Depression.

 

[RileyHawk]

Yeah, about half the normal annual return over 3 years, on average, going back to the end of the Great Depression.

Because Trump left a declining economy.

That said, the point is the economy and the market are improved and trending positive over that timeframe.

 

[Tenacious E]

Because Trump left a declining economy.

That said, the point is the economy and the market are improved and trending positive over that timeframe.

Not an original thought, but presidents get too much blame and credit for the economy. Not a whole lot Trump or Biden could have done to impact it one way or another, imho. Even the interest rates are set by the federal reserve, with limited ability of the president to intervene.

Ways The President Can (And Can’t) Influence The Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve was designed to be independent from politics, but the president may have more influence over the central bank than you originally thought.

www.bankrate.com